PDF 原檔：報告_GF_日月光3711_20260730_original.pdf
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原始內容
ASE Holdings (3711 TT)
LEAP Set to Double in 2027
C Progress Intact, with >$170 Annualized EPS Potential Reiterate Buy but lower TP to NT$754: ASE shares outperformed Taiex by 13% in the past one month amid the broad market sell-off, due to investors' appetite being away from price hike themes. Despite this, we continue to see better than expected business evolvement such as continued upside in its LEAP business and margin outlook for its ATM. On the back of mgmt's guidance raise and our bullish view on AMD/Nvidia's CPU, we now forecast LEAP at $3.8bn/$7.7bn in 2026E/2027E. Margin wise, mgmt now expects its ATM to exceed its structural margin range by end of this year, underpinned by leading -edge and resilient traditional segments and broad -based pricing actions. By incorporating results, guidance and stronger LEAP contributions, we revise our EPS estimates by +9%/+12% for 2026E/2027E; however, we lower our target multiple from 30x 2027E EPS to 25x due to recent tech sector de-rating, leading to a lower TP of $754.
Results & guidance: ASE reported 2Q26 revenue of NT$191bn which was up 10% QoQ and 27% YoY. Gross margin of 21% and operating margin of 11.1% was largely inline. Helped by investment gains, EPS came in at NT4.8, +48% QoQ/+177% YoY. For 3Q26, mgmt guided 3Q26 revenue to increase 21-22% QoQ, higher than expected, due to the combination of EMS' 40% QoQ and ATM's 11-13% QoQ. Gross margin of 20.5-21.5% was slightly below, but the ATM margin could be up to 28-29%, which is higher than expected and is much more important, reflecting continued strength in AI-driven LEAP and high UTR.
Raise guidance for LEAP: During the earnings call, mgmt indicated its LEAP run rate is couple hundred million ahead of its earlier guidance of $3.5bn and suggests it is expected to be doubled YoY in 2027, driven by all its four main businesses. Specifically, we reiterate our earlier view of its Full Process to benefit from the strong AMD Venice CPU builds (5.0~5.5m for all suppliers) and Nvidia Vera CPU. Capacity wise, mgmt suggests the focus in current production cluster to enhance efficiency rather than going to U.S. To support the growth, the company raised capex by another $2bn in 2026, and we retain our 2.5D capacity estimates of 15KPM/45KPM/55KPM by end-2026/2027/2028 and LEAP of $3.8bn/$7.7bn/$10.4bn, compared to earlier $3.6bn/$6.4bn/$8.3bn.
Risks: 1) AI slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition; 4) capacity delay.
Profit forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 595,410 | 645,388 | 824,852 | 1,050,270 | 1,208,628 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 2.3 | 8.4 | 27.8 | 27.3 | 15.1 |
| Net profit (m) | 32,482 | 40,658 | 81,426 | 132,306 | 168,022 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 2.4 | 25.2 | 100.3 | 62.5 | 27.0 |
| EPS (NT$) | 7.4 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 30.1 | 38.3 |
| P/E | 92.3 | 72.6 | 27.2 | 16.8 | 13.2 |
| ROE ( % ) | 9.4 | 10.9 | 19.0 | 26.0 | 28.3 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Target price
Buy NT$ 754
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
2Q26 Results Largely Inline
ASE reported 2Q26 revenue of NT$191bn which was up 10% QoQ and 27% YoY. Gross margin of 21% and operating margin of 11.1% was largely inline. Helped by investment gains, EPS came in at NT$4.8, +48% QoQ/+177% YoY.
3Q26 Guidance Ahead on EMS, with Solid ATM Margin
For 3Q26, mgmt guided 3Q26 revenue to increase 21-22% QoQ, higher than expected, due to the combination of EMS' 40% QoQ and ATM's 11-13% QoQ. Gross margin of 20.5-21.5% was slightly below, but the ATM margin could be up to 28-29%, which is higher than expected and is much more important, reflecting continued strength in AI-driven LEAP and high UTR.
For 2026, mgmt adds additional $2bn capex to equipment and facilities, as it believes the revenue growth will largely depend on equipment installation. The company also believes its LEAP revenue will be ahead of its guidance by couple hundred million in 2026.
Figure 1: 2Q26 Results Review
| NTD mn | 2Q26 | 1Q26 | QoQ | 2Q25 | YoY | GFHK | Diff | Cons. | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 191,064 | 173,662 | 10.0% | 150,750 | 26.7% | 189,570 | 0.8% | 188,753 | 1.2% |
| Gross profit | 40,150 | 34,850 | 15.2% | 25,688 | 56.3% | 39,979 | 0.4% | 39,293 | 2.2% |
| OPEX | 19,016 | 17,318 | 9.8% | 15,494 | 22.7% | 18,300 | 3.9% | 18,087 | 5.1% |
| Operating profit | 21,134 | 17,532 | 20.5% | 10,193 | 107.3% | 21,679 | -2.5% | 21,206 | -0.3% |
| Pre-tax profit | 25,700 | 18,200 | 41.2% | 9,254 | 177.7% | 21,825 | 17.8% | 21,541 | 19.3% |
| Net profit | 21,068 | 14,148 | 48.9% | 7,521 | 180.1% | 17,002 | 23.9% | 16,882 | 24.8% |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.8 | 3.24 | 48.1% | 1.7 | 176.5% | 3.9 | 23.4% | 3.8 | 26.3% |
| ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ||||||
| Gross Margin | 21.0% | 20.1% | 0.9 | 17.0% | 4.0 | 21.1% | -0.1 | 20.8% | 0.2 |
| Operating Margin | 11.1% | 10.1% | 1.0 | 6.8% | 4.3 | 11.4% | -0.3 | 11.2% | -0.1 |
| Pretax margin | 13.5% | 10.5% | 3.0 | 6.1% | 7.4 | 11.5% | 2.0 | 11.4% | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.9 | 5.0% | 6.0 | 9.0% | 2.0 | 8.9% | 2.1 |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: ASE's LEAP revenue (USD bn)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 3: ASE/SPIL, Amkor CoWoS Capacity Forecast (kwpm)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings Revision
By incorporating results, guidance and stronger LEAP contributions, we revise our EPS estimates by +9%/+12% for 2026E/2027E.
Figure 4: Earnings revision
| NTDm | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTDm | 2025 | Old | New | Old | New | 2026E | 2027E |
| Net sales | 645,388 | 790,064 | 824,852 | 965,797 | 1,050,270 | 4% | 9% |
| Gross profit | 114,193 | 169,742 | 176,062 | 238,795 | 262,334 | 4% | 10% |
| EBIT | 50,756 | 93,224 | 97,428 | 149,195 | 168,034 | 5% | 13% |
| Pre-tax Income | 51,301 | 94,321 | 102,383 | 149,366 | 168,333 | 9% | 13% |
| Net profit | 40,658 | 73,975 | 81,426 | 117,143 | 132,306 | 10% | 13% |
| EPS (NT$) | 9.35 | 16.94 | 18.55 | 26.83 | 30.14 | 9% | 12% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 17.7% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 24.7% | 25.0% | ||
| Operating margin | 7.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 16.0% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 7.9% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 16.0% | ||
| Net profit margin | 6.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 5: ASE's P&L forecast
| (NTD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 645,388 | 173,662 | 191,064 | 231,634 | 228,492 | 824,852 | 228,313 | 251,108 | 282,246 | 288,603 | 1,050,270 |
| COGS | 531,194 | 138,812 | 150,914 | 182,960 | 176,103 | 648,790 | 174,847 | 188,644 | 211,243 | 213,202 | 787,936 |
| Gross profit | 114,193 | 34,850 | 40,150 | 48,674 | 52,389 | 176,062 | 53,466 | 62,464 | 71,003 | 75,401 | 262,334 |
| Opex | (63,437) | -17,318 | -19,016 | -21,000 | -21,300 | -78,634 | -21,300 | -23,000 | -24,500 | -25,500 | -94,300 |
| Operating profit | 50,756 | 17,532 | 21,134 | 27,674 | 31,089 | 97,428 | 32,166 | 39,464 | 46,503 | 49,901 | 168,034 |
| Non-op profit | 545 | 668 | 4,566 | -670 | 390 | 4,955 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 299 |
| Pre-tax profit | 51,301 | 18,200 | 25,700 | 27,004 | 31,479 | 102,383 | 32,241 | 39,539 | 46,578 | 49,976 | 168,333 |
| Income tax | (9,460) | -3,635 | -4,172 | -5,131 | -5,981 | -18,919 | -6,448 | -7,908 | -9,316 | -9,995 | -33,667 |
| Minority interest | (1,182) | -417 | -460 | -640 | -520 | -2,037 | -500 | -540 | -720 | -600 | -2,360 |
| Net Income | 40,658 | 14,148 | 21,068 | 21,233 | 24,978 | 81,426 | 25,292 | 31,091 | 36,542 | 39,381 | 132,306 |
| EPS (NT$) | 9.4 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 18.6 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 30.1 |
| Outstanding shares | 4,347 | 4,366 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 | 4,389 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 17.7% | 20.1% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 22.9% | 21.3% | 23.4% | 24.9% | 25.2% | 26.1% | 25.0% |
| Operating margin | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| Pre-tax margin | 7.9% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| Effective tax rate | 18.4% | 20.0% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 18.5% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 8% | 17% | 27% | 37% | 28% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 22% | 26% | 27% |
| Operating profit | 30% | 81% | 107% | 110% | 76% | 92% | 83% | 87% | 68% | 61% | 72% |
| Net income | 25% | 87% | 180% | 95% | 70% | 100% | 79% | 48% | 72% | 58% | 62% |
| EPS | 27% | 86% | 177% | 93% | 69% | 98% | 78% | 48% | 72% | 58% | 62% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| ATM | 60% | 63% | 65% | 60% | 66% | 64% | 69% | 71% | 70% | 72% | 70% |
| EMS | 40% | 35% | 34% | 39% | 34% | 36% | 31% | 28% | 30% | 28% | 29% |
| Others | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of NT$754
We rate ASE (3711 TT) Buy and set our TP at NT$754 which is based on 25x our 2027E EPS which is lower than our previous 30x due to recent tech sector de-rating. We adopt 2027 as valuation basis to capture its robust LEAP business potential which is the key market focus and is expected to see aggressive capacity expansion. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook.
The ASE/SPIL is the highest-quality OSAT and NO.1 in market share worldwide, backed by superior operational management, M&As, economies of scale, and customer/product diversification. We like ASE as we view it as an AI beneficiary with increasing margin-accretive AI/LEAP business in 2026 and beyond. We believe the business will be driven by oS and CP in 2026, with emerging driver of full process business ramping in 2H26.
ASE's P/E traded at an average of 14x since 2021 but was up to an average of 19x since 1Q24 when the company meaningfully started AI business. We derive our target price based on 25x P/E, which is meaningfully higher than the mid-cycle level given its fast-growing AI momentum.
Figure 6: ASE's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 7: ASE's 12-month forward P/B
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) AI slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition; 4) capacity delay.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | NTD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Current assets | 275,285 | 313,795 | 343,714 | 408,912 | 457,090 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 84,883 | 100,223 | 74,477 | 70,815 | 70,763 |
| Inventory | 57,314 | 65,673 | 80,212 | 97,415 | 109,354 |
| Accounts Receivable | 113,420 | 125,042 | 159,813 | 203,487 | 234,169 |
| Other current assets | 19,668 | 22,857 | 29,213 | 37,196 | 42,804 |
| Non-current assets | 465,413 | 575,538 | 836,332 | 1,100,258 | 1,318,607 |
| Long-term equity investment | 37,118 | 41,569 | 43,569 | 45,569 | 47,569 |
| Fixed assets | 312,531 | 421,115 | 679,909 | 941,835 | 1,158,183 |
| Other long-term assets | 115,763 | 112,854 | 112,854 | 112,854 | 112,854 |
| Total assets | 740,698 | 889,333 | 1,180,046 | 1,509,170 | 1,775,697 |
| Current liabilities | 230,940 | 244,349 | 343,114 | 443,404 | 515,186 |
| Accounts Payable | 78,221 | 88,754 | 108,402 | 131,651 | 147,787 |
| Short-term borrowings | 53,872 | 40,734 | 87,911 | 124,834 | 152,297 |
| Other current liabilities | 98,847 | 114,861 | 146,800 | 186,919 | 215,102 |
| Non-current liabilities | 163,972 | 271,617 | 409,180 | 556,871 | 666,724 |
| Long-term Debt | 139,728 | 214,081 | 351,644 | 499,334 | 609,188 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 24,243 | 57,536 | 57,536 | 57,536 | 57,536 |
| Total liabilities | 394,911 | 515,966 | 752,294 | 1,000,274 | 1,181,910 |
| Total Equity | 345,787 | 373,368 | 427,752 | 508,896 | 593,787 |
| Share Capital | 44,153 | 44,480 | 44,480 | 44,480 | 44,480 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 155,424 | 162,249 | 162,249 | 162,249 | 162,249 |
| Retained earnings | 123,947 | 140,171 | 194,556 | 275,700 | 360,591 |
| Preferred Stocks | 22,264 | 26,468 | 26,468 | 26,468 | 26,468 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 740,698 | 889,333 | 1,180,046 | 1,509,170 | 1,775,697 |
| Income Statement | NTD mn | NTD mn | NTD mn | NTD mn | NTD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Revenue | 595,410 | 645,388 | 824,852 | 1,050,270 | 1,208,628 |
| Cost of sales | 498,478 | 531,195 | 648,790 | 787,936 | 884,508 |
| Gross profit | 96,932 | 114,193 | 176,062 | 262,334 | 324,120 |
| Operating Expense | 57,765 | 63,437 | 78,634 | 94,300 | 107,500 |
| Operating profit | 39,166 | 50,756 | 97,428 | 168,034 | 216,620 |
| Net Interest | 6,777 | 7,503 | -8,680 | -11,701 | -15,242 |
| Associate & investments | 868 | 814 | 3,526 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Other Non-op. | -5,128 | -7,772 | 10,108 | 8,000 | 8,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 41,683 | 51,301 | 102,383 | 168,333 | 213,378 |
| Income tax | 6,315 | 8,278 | 18,919 | 33,667 | 42,676 |
| Profit for the year | 35,369 | 43,023 | 83,464 | 134,666 | 170,702 |
| Minority interest | -1,443 | -1,182 | -2,037 | -2,360 | -2,680 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 32,482 | 40,658 | 81,426 | 132,306 | 168,022 |
| EPS (NT$) | 7.4 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 30.1 | 38.3 |
| Cash Flow | Statement | Statement | Statement | Statement | NTD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Operating cash flow | 114,867 | 110,661 | 148,879 | 211,379 | 259,306 |
| Profit for the year | 32,482 | 40,658 | 81,426 | 132,306 | 168,022 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 59,815 | 67,440 | 75,056 | 88,566 | 99,194 |
| Change in working capital | 23,437 | 3,377 | -4,077 | -5,493 | -3,910 |
| Others | -868 | -814 | -3,526 | -4,000 | -4,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -119,132 | -176,752 | -332,324 | -348,493 | -313,543 |
| Capex | -103,715 | -172,191 | -333,850 | -350,493 | -315,543 |
| Change in investment | -12,116 | -3,637 | 1,526 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| Others | -3,301 | -924 | - | - | - |
| Free cash flow | 11,152 | -61,530 | -184,971 | -139,113 | -56,237 |
| Financing cash flow | 22,585 | 94,507 | 184,740 | 184,613 | 137,317 |
| Change in Capital | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Change in Debt | 22,605 | 61,214 | 184,740 | 184,613 | 137,317 |
| Others | -20 | 33,293 | - | - | - |
| Exchange influence | 9,600 | -5,898 | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | 18,320 | 28,417 | 1,296 | 47,500 | 83,080 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth | 2.3 | 8.4 | 27.8 | 27.3 | 15.1 |
| Operating profit growth | -2.9 | 29.6 | 92.0 | 72.5 | 28.9 |
| Net profit growth | 2.4 | 25.2 | 100.3 | 62.5 | 27.0 |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 16.3 | 17.7 | 21.3 | 25.0 | 26.8 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 6.6 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 17.9 |
| Net profit margin | 5.5 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| Key Ratio | |||||
| ROA | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| ROE | 9.4 | 10.9 | 19.0 | 26.0 | 28.3 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Interest Coverage | -17 | -15 | 17 | 18 | 17 |
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Net debt/equity | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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- 4) GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and/or its affiliates does not have any investment banking relationship in Hong Kong with the company(ies) mentioned in this report in the past 12 months.
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