PDF 原檔：報告_GF_ASML_20260715_original.pdf
報告日期：內文未列明確發布日期，依 PDF 檔案 metadata CreationDate（2026-07-15T15:10 UTC）認定；內容數字（2Q26營收€9.3bn、EPS €7.58）與 CTBC 2026-07-16 報告一致，應屬 ASML 2Q26 法說當週同批報告。
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原始內容
ASML Holding (ASML US)
2Q26 Review: WFE strength continues
Guidance raised; TP $2,571: ASML reported 2Q26 revenue of €9.3bn with a gross margin of 54%. Management raised its 2026 full-year revenue guidance to €43-45bn (from €3640bn) with a gross margin outlook of 54-56%, supported by stronger demand from both logic and memory. We believe the earnings and margin upside is driven not only by robust endmarket demand but also by pin-to-pin price increases and old model upgrade. We remain bullish on ASML's demand outlook and continue to see capacity upside as the company works to diversify its supply chain beyond Zeiss. Accordingly, we raise our 2026/2027 EPS forecasts to €38.88/54.46, and our target price of $2,571 is based on 40x 2027E P/E unchanged.
Likely a 300bn WFE in 2028: We forecast global WFE to reach $163bn in 2026, accelerating to $236bn in 2027 and $295bn in 2028, representing the strongest WFE upcycle on record. We believe the current cycle is supported by: 1) Stronger visibility into memory capex: Samsung/SK's capex is projected to reach ₩100tn/70tn by 2028, followed by an estimated ~20% CAGR through 2033; 2) incremental demand from Terafab; 3) A more constructive outlook for TSMC's capex, for which we forecast $57bn/75bn in 2026/2027; 4) Intel's capacity expansion, including ~35kpm for Intel 3 and ~ 40kpm for 18A between late 2026 and 2028, alongside an accelerated 14A ramp; and 5) continued strength in China's demand.
Capacity expansion becoming increasingly visible: Management indicated that both EUV and immersion DUV production capacity are expected to expand by ~30% annually in both 2027 and 2028, implying annual output of ~85/110 EUV systems and ~169/220 immersion DUV systems, respectively. Our checks indicate customer demand has already exceeded 110 EUV systems for 2028, while ASML continues to explore alternative lens suppliers beyond Zeiss to alleviate supply constraints. Although achieving 120 EUV systems in 2028 remains challenging, we still see upside potential to management's existing guidance.
Risks: 1) AI demand deceleration; 2) Geo-political uncertainties; 3) Competition.
| Profit forecast (EUR to USD 1.18) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 27,559 | 28,263 | 32,667 | 44,074 | 57,325 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 30.2% | 2.6% | 15.6% | 34.9% | 30.1% |
| Net profit (m) | 7,839 | 7,572 | 9,609 | 14,936 | 20,838 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 39.4% | -3.4% | 26.9% | 55.4% | 39.5% |
| EPS ($) | 19.89 | 19.24 | 24.72 | 38.88 | 54.46 |
| P/E | 75.7 | 78.2 | 60.90 | 38.71 | 27.6 |
| ROE ( % ) | 114.6% | 35.9% | 48.8% | 65.3% | 56.0% |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully .
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Yang Zhou
SFC CE No. BSF949 zhouyang@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Michelle Jing SFC CE No. BUK594 michellejing@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Review
2Q26 results review
ASML reported 2Q26 revenue of €9.3bn EUR, +6.4% QoQ and +21.3% YoY. By segment, net system sales reached €6.6bn EUR, +4.5% QoQ and +17.3% YoY; net service & field option sales reached €2.8bn EUR, +11.0% QoQ and +31.8% YoY. 2Q26 gross profit margin was 54.0%, up 1ppt QoQ, up 0.3ppt YoY; and operating profit margin was 37.0%, up 1.1ppt QoQ, up 2.4ppt YoY. Diluted EPS was €7.58.
We forecast revenue of €44/57bn EUR in 2026/2027
We revise ASML's earnings forecast for 2026/2027 to €44.1/57.3bn EUR, with net profit of €14.9/20.8bn EUR and EPS of €38.88/54.46 EUR, respectively.
Figure 1: Earnings revision (mn EUR)
| FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2027E | Change (%) | Change (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Old | New | FY2026E | FY2027E | ||
| Net sales | 32,667 | 40,555 | 44,074 | 50,922 | 57,325 | 8.7% | 12.6% |
| Gross profit | 17,258 | 21,250 | 24,273 | 27,300 | 32,648 | 14.2% | 19.6% |
| Op. profit | 11,302 | 14,971 | 17,612 | 20,164 | 24,799 | 17.6% | 23.0% |
| Pre-tax Income | 11,406 | 15,214 | 17,761 | 20,478 | 24,958 | 16.7% | 21.9% |
| Net profit | 9,609 | 12,909 | 14,936 | 17,239 | 20,838 | 15.7% | 20.9% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 52.4% | 55.1% | 53.6% | 57.0% | ||
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 36.9% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 43.3% | ||
| Net profit margin | 29.4% | 31.8% | 33.9% | 33.9% | 36.4% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: ASML's P&L Forecast
| (EUR m) | FY25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | FY26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 32,667 | 8,767 | 9,327 | 11,906 | 14,074 | 44,074 | 11,559 | 13,214 | 15,370 | 17,181 | 57,325 |
| COGS | -15,409 | -4,122 | -4,291 | -5,214 | -6,174 | -19,800 | -5,078 | -5,706 | -6,585 | -7,308 | -24,677 |
| Gross profit | 17,258 | 4,645 | 5,035 | 6,692 | 7,901 | 24,273 | 6,482 | 7,508 | 8,786 | 9,873 | 32,648 |
| Opex | -5,957 | -1,487 | -1,579 | -1,667 | -1,928 | -6,662 | -1,711 | -1,943 | -2,014 | -2,182 | -7,849 |
| Operating profit | 11,302 | 3,158 | 3,456 | 5,025 | 5,972 | 17,612 | 4,771 | 5,566 | 6,772 | 7,691 | 24,799 |
| Non-op profit | 105 | 41 | 30 | 45 | 34 | 150 | 28 | 45 | 43 | 43 | 159 |
| Pre-tax profit | 11,406 | 3,199 | 3,486 | 5,070 | 6,007 | 17,761 | 4,799 | 5,610 | 6,815 | 7,734 | 24,958 |
| Income tax | -2,013 | -547 | -610 | -887 | -1,050 | -3,093 | -839 | -981 | -1,192 | -1,352 | -4,364 |
| Non-GAAP Net Income | 9,609 | 2,757 | 2,918 | 4,245 | 5,016 | 14,936 | 4,020 | 4,693 | 5,684 | 6,440 | 20,838 |
| Diluted EPS (€) | 25 | 7.15 | 7.58 | 11.04 | 13.06 | 39 | 10.48 | 12.24 | 14.84 | 16.83 | 54 |
| Diluted shares | 387 | 386 | 385 | 385 | 384 | 384 | 384 | 383 | 383 | 383 | 383 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 53.0% | 54.0% | 56.2% | 56.1% | 55.1% | 56.1% | 56.8% | 57.2% | 57.5% | 57.0% |
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 36.0% | 37.1% | 42.2% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 42.1% | 44.1% | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| Pre-tax margin | 34.9% | 36.5% | 37.4% | 42.6% | 42.7% | 40.3% | 41.5% | 42.5% | 44.3% | 45.0% | 43.5% |
| Effective tax rate | 17.7% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 15.6% | 13.2% | 21.3% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 34.9% | 31.9% | 41.7% | 29.1% | 22.1% | 30.1% |
| Operating profit | 25.3% | 15.3% | 29.7% | 103.6% | 74.1% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 61.0% | 34.8% | 28.8% | 40.8% |
| Net income | 26.9% | 17.1% | 27.4% | 99.8% | 76.7% | 55.4% | 45.8% | 60.9% | 33.9% | 28.4% | 39.5% |
| EPS | 28.5% | 19.1% | 28.5% | 101.4% | 78.0% | 57.3% | 46.6% | 61.5% | 34.4% | 28.9% | 40.1% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of $2,571
We remain bullish on ASML's demand outlook and continue to see capacity upside as the company works to diversify its supply chain beyond Zeiss. Accordingly, we raise our 2026/2027 EPS forecasts to €38.88/54.46, and our target price of $2,571 is based on 40x 2027E P/E unchanged.
Figure 3: ASML's Historical Forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
- 1) AI demand deceleration; 2) Geo-political uncertainties; 3) Competition.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | EUR m | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Current assets | 24,394 | 30,357 | 30,241 | 35,377 | 49,116 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 7,010 | 12,741 | 13,322 | 4,281 | 12,315 |
| Inventory | 8,851 | 10,892 | 11,429 | 16,890 | 19,993 |
| Accounts Receivable | 5,713 | 4,560 | 3,637 | 11,790 | 14,392 |
| Other current assets | 2,820 | 2,164 | 1,853 | 2,416 | 2,416 |
| Non-current assets | 15,564 | 22,209 | 25,336 | 20,999 | 21,776 |
| Long-term equity investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed assets | 5,493 | 6,847 | 7,894 | 8,149 | 8,925 |
| Other long-term assets | 10,070 | 15,363 | 17,443 | 12,850 | 12,850 |
| Total assets | 39,958 | 52,567 | 55,577 | 56,376 | 70,892 |
| Current liabilities | 16,275 | 20,050 | 24,439 | 23,687 | 24,589 |
| Accounts Payable | 2,347 | 3,499 | 3,522 | 4,598 | 5,443 |
| Short-term borrowings | 0 | 1,010 | 990 | 879 | 937 |
| Other current liabilities | 13,927 | 15,541 | 19,927 | 18,209 | 18,209 |
| Non-current liabilities | 10,230 | 10,495 | 6,952 | 5,318 | 4,559 |
| Long-term Debt | 4,632 | 3,677 | 2,709 | 1,067 | 309 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 5,599 | 6,818 | 4,243 | 4,250 | 4,250 |
| Total liabilities | 26,505 | 30,545 | 31,392 | 29,005 | 29,149 |
| Total Equity | 13,453 | 22,022 | 24,185 | 27,371 | 41,742 |
| Share Capital | 4,034 | 4,554 | 4,626 | 4,626 | 4,626 |
| Treasury stock | (3,306) | (476) | (2,253) | (2,253) | (2,253) |
| Retained earnings | 12,380 | 13,516 | 16,535 | 23,917 | 37,733 |
| Capital adjustment | (6,267) | 3,476 | 772 | (3,424) | (2,869) |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 39,958 | 52,567 | 55,577 | 56,376 | 70,892 |
| Income Statement | EUR m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Revenue | 27,559 | 28,263 | 32,667 | 44,074 | 57,325 |
| Cost of sales | (13,422) | (13,771) | (15,409) | (19,800) | (24,677) |
| Gross profit | 14,136 | 14,492 | 17,258 | 24,273 | 32,648 |
| Operating Expense | (5,094) | (5,469) | (5,957) | (6,662) | (7,849) |
| Operating profit | 9,042 | 9,023 | 11,302 | 17,612 | 24,799 |
| Interest Income | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Expense | (41) | (20) | (105) | (150) | (159) |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pre-tax profit | 9,084 | 9,042 | 11,406 | 17,761 | 24,958 |
| Income tax & Income from Affiliates | 1,245 | 1,471 | 1,797 | 2,826 | 4,120 |
| Profit for the year | 7,839 | 7,572 | 9,609 | 14,936 | 20,838 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 7,839 | 7,572 | 9,609 | 14,936 | 20,838 |
| EPS (€) | 19.89 | 19.24 | 24.72 | 38.88 | 54.46 |
| Cash Flow Statement | EUR m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Operating cash flow | 5,443 | 11,166 | 12,659 | 1,861 | 17,654 |
| Profit for the year | 7,839 | 7,571 | 9,609 | 14,936 | 20,838 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 740 | 919 | 1,026 | 1,007 | 1,064 |
| Change in working capital | (3,664) | 2,053 | 1,027 | (14,498) | (4,861) |
| Others | 528 | 623 | 997 | 416 | 613 |
| Investing cash flow | (2,136) | (2,304) | (3,377) | (2,211) | (1,840) |
| Capex | (2,170) | (2,067) | (1,574) | (1,536) | (1,840) |
| Change in investment | (553) | (305) | (401) | (37) | 0 |
| Others | 586 | 68 | (1,402) | (638) | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 3,274 | 9,099 | 11,085 | 325 | 15,814 |
| Financing cash flow | (3,004) | (2,832) | (8,671) | (9,164) | (7,780) |
| Change in Capital | 97 | (354) | (5,808) | (3,821) | (2,868) |
| Net Change in Debt | (753) | (26) | (313) | (1,610) | (759) |
| Others | (2,348) | (2,453) | (2,550) | (3,733) | (4,154) |
| Exchange influence | (14) | 6 | (30) | 7 | 0 |
| Total cash generated | (264) | 5,731 | 180 | (9,544) | 8,033 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth | 30.2% | 2.6% | 15.6% | 34.9% | 30.1% |
| Operating profit growth | 39.1% | -0.2% | 25.3% | 55.8% | 40.8% |
| Net profit growth | 39.4% | -3.4% | 26.9% | 55.4% | 39.5% |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 51.3% | 51.3% | 52.8% | 55.1% | 57.0% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 32.8% | 31.9% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 43.3% |
| Net profit margin | 28.4% | 26.8% | 29.4% | 33.9% | 36.4% |
| Key Ratio | |||||
| ROE | 114.6% | 35.9% | 48.8% | 65.3% | 56.0% |
| ROA | 19.9% | 16.4% | 17.8% | 26.7% | 32.7% |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 387.5 | 145.0 | 159.5 | 126.9 | 78.3 |
| Interest Coverage | (132.1) | (563.9) | (121.0) | (12.4) | (111.1) |
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings
Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings
Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong
Company
GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
michellejing@gfgroup.com.hk
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