PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_欣銓3264_3Q26預覽_20261016_original.pdf
原始內容
Ardentec (3264 TT)
Target price: TWD395.00 (from TWD340.00)
Shareprice(15Oct):TWD268.00 | Up/downside:+47.4%
3Q26 preview: AI defies seasonality
- Solid AI networking demand drives counter-seasonal resilience
- On-track Longtan ramp and CPO upside expand advanced testing
- Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising our 12M TP to TWD395
What's new: We preview Ardentec's 3Q26 results. In our initiation report, 'Initiation: an emerging force in AI/HPC testing' (Sep 9), we expected traditional seasonality in 4Q26-1Q27 to weigh on Ardentec's capacity utilisation. However, we now expect stronger-than-expected momentum in the networking segment to drive counter-seasonal resilience through 1Q27E. We also expect AI revenue (with AI connectivity) contribution to exceed 40% in 1Q27E, well ahead of our original expectations.
What's the impact: Robust networking demand bolsters high utilisation and CPO traction. Our industry checks indicate that demand for networking products is surging across the testing supply chain, primarily fuelled by the acceleration of 1.6T networking adoption. We forecast Ardentec's revenue in 4Q26 and 1Q27 to beat typical seasonal slowdowns. As these high-speed networking programs largely follow a customerconsignment model, their rising revenue mix should provide upside to overall gross margin. Concurrently, subsidiary Giga Solution is gaining momentum in co-packaged optics (CPO) testing, having already qualified and begun ramping up with leading US tier-1 players. While current engagement is centred on insertion 1, we see potential for customer base diversification and expansion into subsequent test insertions (2 and 3).
3Q26 results preview. With the Longtan fab expansion on track and spillover demand continuing, Ardentec 3Q26 revenue reached TWD5.34bn (+17.7% QoQ, +48.5% YoY), above the market consensus by 0.8% but slightly missing our estimate by 1.4%. With utilisation remaining high in 3Q26, we estimate its gross margin and operating margin will reach 45.1% and 35.5%, respectively, above the consensus by 1.3pp and 1.9pp, respectively. We expect cleanroom construction of 2nd and 3rd floors will be finalised by year-end 2026 driven by solid domestic AI/HPC orders, with 2nd-floor capacity likely contributing by late-1Q27.
What we recommend: We raise our 2027-28E EPS by 7% to reflect better-than-expected networking demand but lower our 2026E EPS by 1%. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating and raise our 12M TP to TWD395 (from TWD340), based on an unchanged target PER of 25x on our 2027E EPS. While our target PER represents a premium over the OSAT/testing peer average, we believe this premium is justified by steady demand for highspeed AI connectivity and the Longtan ramp-up. Our estimates indicate these factors could lift AI-related revenue to more than 40% of total sales by 1Q27. Key downside risk: delays in capacity expansion.
How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 7-26% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely on our more aggressive utilisation rate and margin profile.
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Leon Chen (886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Stacy Lin (886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Forecast revisions (%)
| Year to 31 Dec | 26E | 27E | 28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue change | (0.7) | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Net profit change | 0.3 | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| Core EPS (FD) change | (0.9) | 6.5 | 6.9 |
Source: Daiwa forecasts
Share price performance
| 12-month range | 81.40-284.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap (USDbn) | 4.04 |
| 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) | 82.02 |
| Shares outstanding (m) | 489 |
| Major shareholder | Dresdner Bank AG (8.4%) |
Financial summary (TWD)
| Year to 31 Dec | 26E | 27E | 28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 19,361 | 27,081 | 35,046 |
| Operating profit (m) | 6,263 | 10,117 | 13,366 |
| Net profit (m) | 5,092 | 7,984 | 10,591 |
| Core EPS (fully-diluted) | 10.404 | 15.773 | 20.924 |
| EPS change (%) | 73.4 | 51.6 | 32.7 |
| Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) | 2.5 | 6.8 | 26.1 |
| PER (x) | 25.8 | 17.0 | 12.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.3 | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| DPS | 6.2 | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| PBR (x) | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 13.8 | 9.3 | 6.5 |
| ROE (%) | 21.3 | 25.8 | 28.9 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Ardentec: 3Q26 Daiwa vs. Bloomberg estimates
| (TWDm) | New forecast | QoQ | YoY | Previous forecast | Difference | Bloomberg consensus | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,337 | 17.7% | 48.5% | 5,415 | -1.4% | 5,297 | 0.8% |
| Gross profit | 2,407 | 32.2% | 87.7% | 2,450 | -1.8% | 2,318 | 3.8% |
| Operating profit | 1,892 | 37.4% | 116.5% | 1,928 | -1.9% | 1,778 | 6.4% |
| Profit before tax | 1,897 | 30.1% | 81.6% | 1,908 | -0.6% | 1,780 | 6.6% |
| Net profit | 1,505 | 30.2% | 81.9% | 1,513 | -0.6% | 1,461 | 3.0% |
| Basic EPS (TWD) | 3.04 | 24.5% | 73.5% | 3.09 | -1.6% | 2.90 | 4.7% |
| Margin | |||||||
| Gross margin | 45.1% | 4.9pp | 9.4pp | 45.2% | -0.2pp | 43.8% | 1.3pp |
| Operating margin | 35.5% | 5.1pp | 11.1pp | 35.6% | -0.2pp | 33.6% | 1.9pp |
| Pre tax margin | 35.6% | 3.4pp | 6.5pp | 35.2% | 0.3pp | 33.6% | 2.0pp |
| Net margin | 28.2% | 2.7pp | 5.2pp | 27.9% | 0.3pp | 27.6% | 0.6pp |
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts
Ardentec: quarterly and annual P&L statements
| (TWDm) | 1Q | 2026E 2Q | 3QE | 4QE | 1QE | 2027E 2QE | 3QE | 4QE | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 3,983 | 4,534 | 5,337 | 5,508 | 5,773 | 6,497 | 7,197 | 7,615 | 19,361 | 27,081 | 35,046 |
| Gross profit | 1,528 | 1,821 | 2,407 | 2,423 | 2,587 | 3,032 | 3,440 | 3,570 | 8,178 | 12,629 | 16,548 |
| Operating costs | 431 | 444 | 514 | 526 | 546 | 608 | 660 | 698 | 1,915 | 2,512 | 3,182 |
| Operating profit | 1,097 | 1,377 | 1,892 | 1,897 | 2,041 | 2,423 | 2,781 | 2,872 | 6,263 | 10,117 | 13,366 |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,164 | 1,458 | 1,897 | 1,898 | 2,038 | 2,414 | 2,765 | 2,845 | 6,418 | 10,062 | 13,347 |
| Net profit | 924 | 1,156 | 1,505 | 1,507 | 1,617 | 1,916 | 2,193 | 2,257 | 5,092 | 7,984 | 10,591 |
| EPS (TWD) | 1.95 | 2.44 | 3.04 | 2.98 | 3.19 | 3.79 | 4.33 | 4.46 | 10.40 | 15.77 | 20.92 |
| Operating Ratios | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 38.4% | 40.2% | 45.1% | 44.0% | 44.8% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 46.9% | 42.2% | 46.6% | 47.2% |
| Operating margin | 27.5% | 30.4% | 35.5% | 34.4% | 35.4% | 37.3% | 38.6% | 37.7% | 32.3% | 37.4% | 38.1% |
| Pre-tax margin | 29.2% | 32.2% | 35.6% | 34.5% | 35.3% | 37.2% | 38.4% | 37.4% | 33.1% | 37.2% | 38.1% |
| Net margin | 23.2% | 25.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 29.5% | 30.5% | 29.6% | 26.3% | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Net revenue | 24% | 32% | 49% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 35% | 38% | 38% | 40% | 29% |
| Gross profit | 35% | 46% | 88% | 69% | 69% | 66% | 43% | 47% | 61% | 54% | 31% |
| Operating income | 41% | 52% | 117% | 88% | 86% | 76% | 47% | 51% | 76% | 62% | 32% |
| Net income | 54% | 105% | 82% | 78% | 75% | 66% | 46% | 50% | 79% | 57% | 33% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Net revenue | 5% | 14% | 18% | 3% | 5% | 13% | 11% | 6% | |||
| Gross profit | 6% | 19% | 32% | 1% | 7% | 17% | 13% | 4% | |||
| Operating income | 9% | 26% | 37% | 0% | 8% | 19% | 15% | 3% | |||
| Net income | 9% | 25% | 30% | 0% | 7% | 18% | 14% | 3% |
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts
Ardentec: revenue and earnings forecast revisions
| (TWDm) | 2026E - Previous | 2026E - New | 2026E - Consensus | 2027E - Previous | 2027E - New | 2027E - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19,503 | 19,361 | 19,326 | 26,817 | 27,081 | 27,615 |
| Diff (%) | -0.7% | 0.2% | 1.0% | -1.9% | ||
| Gross margin (%) | 42.3% | 42.2% | 41.7% | 44.5% | 46.6% | 43.6% |
| Operating Profit | 6,317 | 6,263 | 6,078 | 9,453 | 10,117 | 9,296 |
| Operating margin | 32.4% | 32.3% | 31.5% | 35.3% | 37.4% | 33.7% |
| Net Profit | 5,076 | 5,092 | 4,957 | 7,258 | 7,984 | 7,345 |
| EPS | 10.50 | 10.40 | 10.15 | 14.81 | 15.77 | 14.77 |
| Diff (%) | -0.9% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% |
Source: Daiwa estimates and forecasts
Financial summary
Key assumptions
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Testing Equipment (units) | 1,758 | 1,868 | 1,921 | 1,894 | 1,879 | 1,988 | 2,244 | 2,523 |
| Utilisation Rate (%) | 84 | 77 | 64 | 59 | 63 | 74 | 80 | 83 |
| Blended Hourly Rate (TWD) | 922 | 1,155 | 1,312 | 1,333 | 1,343 | 1,493 | 1,731 | 1,904 |
Profit and loss (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wafer Sorting | 8,253 | 10,555 | 10,371 | 9,157 | 10,030 | 13,982 | 20,848 | 27,896 |
| Final Testing | 3,614 | 3,871 | 3,625 | 3,878 | 3,956 | 5,255 | 6,042 | 6,927 |
| Other Revenue | 60 | 72 | 56 | 66 | 42 | 124 | 192 | 223 |
| Total Revenue | 11,926 | 14,499 | 14,052 | 13,101 | 14,028 | 19,361 | 27,081 | 35,046 |
| Other income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COGS | (7,495) | (8,579) | (9,179) | (9,425) | (8,937) | (11,183) | (14,452) | (18,498) |
| SG&A | (915) | (1,042) | (975) | (845) | (994) | (1,244) | (1,606) | (2,026) |
| Other op.expenses | (450) | (525) | (493) | (477) | (533) | (671) | (906) | (1,157) |
| Operating profit | 3,065 | 4,353 | 3,405 | 2,354 | 3,565 | 6,263 | 10,117 | 13,366 |
| Net-interest inc./(exp.) | (98) | (133) | (207) | (233) | (272) | (288) | (435) | (428) |
| Assoc/forex/extraord./others | 217 | 148 | 182 | 297 | 318 | 443 | 380 | 409 |
| Pre-tax profit | 3,184 | 4,368 | 3,379 | 2,417 | 3,612 | 6,418 | 10,062 | 13,347 |
| Tax | (604) | (822) | (633) | (313) | (771) | (1,326) | (2,078) | (2,756) |
| Min. int./pref. div./others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit (reported) | 2,580 | 3,546 | 2,746 | 2,104 | 2,840 | 5,092 | 7,984 | 10,591 |
| Net profit (adjusted) | 2,580 | 3,546 | 2,746 | 2,104 | 2,840 | 5,092 | 7,984 | 10,591 |
| EPS (reported)(TWD) | n.a. | 7.480 | 5.790 | 4.440 | 6.000 | 10.404 | 15.773 | 20.924 |
| EPS (adjusted)(TWD) | n.a. | 7.480 | 5.790 | 4.440 | 6.000 | 10.404 | 15.773 | 20.924 |
| EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) | n.a. | 7.480 | 5.790 | 4.440 | 6.000 | 10.404 | 15.773 | 20.924 |
| DPS (TWD) | 2.800 | 3.500 | 3.300 | 4.000 | 4.200 | 6.242 | 7.887 | 11.508 |
| EBIT | 3,065 | 4,353 | 3,405 | 2,354 | 3,565 | 6,263 | 10,117 | 13,366 |
| EBITDA | 6,178 | 7,862 | 7,430 | 6,492 | 6,704 | 10,099 | 15,889 | 21,482 |
Cash flow (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit before tax | 3,184 | 4,368 | 3,379 | 2,417 | 3,612 | 6,418 | 10,062 | 13,347 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 3,112 | 3,509 | 4,024 | 4,138 | 3,139 | 3,836 | 5,772 | 8,116 |
| Tax paid | (604) | (822) | (633) | (313) | (771) | (1,326) | (2,078) | (2,756) |
| Change in working capital | (321) | (467) | (123) | 438 | (726) | (2,119) | (460) | (508) |
| Other operational CF items | 233 | 377 | (484) | (315) | 463 | (421) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow from operations | 5,604 | 6,964 | 6,164 | 6,366 | 5,716 | 6,388 | 13,295 | 18,199 |
| Capex | (6,037) | (6,139) | (5,395) | (3,692) | (3,773) | (14,507) | (18,540) | (7,125) |
| Net (acquisitions)/disposals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other investing CF items | 355 | (443) | (636) | (925) | 917 | 889 | 150 | 211 |
| Cash flow from investing | (5,683) | (6,582) | (6,030) | (4,618) | (2,856) | (13,618) | (18,390) | (6,914) |
| Change in debt | 1,724 | 1,853 | (1,034) | 138 | (659) | 3,366 | 7,500 | (6,900) |
| Net share issues/(repurchases) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2,081) | (3,160) | (3,992) |
| Other financing CF items | (1,168) | (1,588) | 3 | (1,818) | (2,131) | 7,863 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from financing | 556 | 265 | (1,031) | (1,680) | (2,791) | 9,147 | 4,340 | (10,892) |
| Forex effect/others | (58) | 100 | 20 | 16 | (24) | 6 | (8) | (8) |
| Change in cash | 420 | 748 | (878) | 85 | 46 | 1,923 | (762) | 385 |
| Free cash flow | (433) | 826 | 769 | 2,674 | 1,943 | (8,119) | (5,245) | 11,074 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Financial summary continued …
Balance sheet (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & short-term investment | 3,480 | 4,628 | 4,376 | 5,392 | 4,563 | 5,621 | 4,858 | 5,243 |
| Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Accounts receivable | 2,491 | 2,982 | 3,106 | 2,681 | 3,386 | 4,933 | 6,914 | 8,307 |
| Other current assets | 861 | 991 | 1,033 | 948 | 1,089 | 1,465 | 1,465 | 1,465 |
| Total current assets | 6,832 | 8,601 | 8,515 | 9,022 | 9,038 | 12,018 | 13,237 | 15,015 |
| Fixed assets | 19,112 | 22,075 | 24,091 | 24,281 | 25,371 | 37,038 | 49,806 | 48,815 |
| Goodwill & intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-current assets | 375 | 354 | 379 | 386 | 416 | 666 | 516 | 305 |
| Total assets | 26,318 | 31,030 | 32,985 | 33,689 | 34,824 | 49,722 | 63,559 | 64,135 |
| Short-term debt | 1,180 | 1,194 | 1,654 | 2,914 | 3,580 | 4,472 | 6,472 | 3,772 |
| Accounts payable | 2,259 | 2,414 | 2,521 | 2,074 | 2,673 | 4,198 | 5,719 | 6,604 |
| Other current liabilities | 729 | 1,050 | 725 | 650 | 797 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| Total current liabilities | 4,169 | 4,657 | 4,899 | 5,638 | 7,050 | 9,675 | 13,196 | 11,381 |
| Long-term debt | 6,723 | 8,546 | 8,981 | 7,885 | 6,557 | 9,005 | 14,505 | 10,305 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 1,422 | 1,294 | 1,491 | 1,867 | 1,969 | 2,455 | 2,455 | 2,455 |
| Total liabilities | 12,313 | 14,498 | 15,371 | 15,390 | 15,577 | 21,136 | 30,157 | 24,142 |
| Share capital | 4,902 | 4,902 | 4,902 | 4,902 | 4,902 | 5,061 | 5,061 | 5,061 |
| Reserves/R.E./others | 9,104 | 11,630 | 12,713 | 13,397 | 14,346 | 23,525 | 28,341 | 34,932 |
| Shareholders' equity | 14,006 | 16,532 | 17,614 | 18,299 | 19,247 | 28,587 | 33,402 | 39,994 |
| Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total equity & liabilities | 26,318 | 31,030 | 32,985 | 33,689 | 34,824 | 49,722 | 63,559 | 64,135 |
| EV | 135,584 | 136,273 | 137,420 | 136,569 | 136,737 | 139,019 | 147,281 | 139,996 |
| Net debt/(cash) | 4,422 | 5,111 | 6,258 | 5,407 | 5,575 | 7,857 | 16,119 | 8,834 |
| BVPS (TWD) | 28.573 | 33.727 | 35.935 | 37.332 | 39.267 | 56.480 | 65.994 | 79.016 |
Key ratios (%)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (YoY) | 23.3 | 21.6 | (3.1) | (6.8) | 7.1 | 38.0 | 39.9 | 29.4 |
| EBITDA (YoY) | 23.7 | 27.3 | (5.5) | (12.6) | 3.3 | 50.6 | 57.3 | 35.2 |
| Operating profit (YoY) | 37.5 | 42.0 | (21.8) | (30.9) | 51.5 | 75.7 | 61.5 | 32.1 |
| Net profit (YoY) | 44.8 | 37.4 | (22.5) | (23.4) | 35.0 | 79.3 | 56.8 | 32.7 |
| Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) | n.a. | n.a. | (22.6) | (23.3) | 35.1 | 73.4 | 51.6 | 32.7 |
| Gross-profit margin | 37.2 | 40.8 | 34.7 | 28.1 | 36.3 | 42.2 | 46.6 | 47.2 |
| EBITDA margin | 51.8 | 54.2 | 52.9 | 49.6 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 58.7 | 61.3 |
| Operating-profit margin | 25.7 | 30.0 | 24.2 | 18.0 | 25.4 | 32.3 | 37.4 | 38.1 |
| Net profit margin | 21.6 | 24.5 | 19.5 | 16.1 | 20.2 | 26.3 | 29.5 | 30.2 |
| ROAE | 19.5 | 23.2 | 16.1 | 11.7 | 15.1 | 21.3 | 25.8 | 28.9 |
| ROAA | 10.6 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 16.6 |
| ROCE | 15.1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 17.5 | 21.0 | 24.6 |
| ROIC | 14.7 | 17.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 18.7 | 21.6 |
| Net debt to equity | 40.7 | 41.0 | 48.6 | 47.2 | 41.2 | 32.7 | 52.7 | 25.8 |
| Effective tax rate | 19.0 | 18.8 | 18.7 | 12.9 | 21.4 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.6 |
| Accounts receivable (days) | 71.5 | 68.9 | 79.1 | 80.6 | 78.9 | 78.4 | 79.8 | 79.3 |
| Current ratio (x) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Net interest cover (x) | 33.5 | 33.8 | 17.3 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 23.3 | 24.1 | 32.1 |
| Net dividend payout | n.a. | 46.8 | 57.0 | 90.1 | 70.0 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 55.0 |
| Free cash flow yield | n.a. | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 | n.a. | n.a. | 8.4 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Company profile
Founded in 1999, Ardentec is a leading Taiwanese pure-play wafer-testing provider serving foundries, IDMs and fabless chipmakers. Its acquisitions of Giga Solution and Raytek over 2016-17 added RF testing and bumping capabilities. Combining automotive-grade reliability with flexible AI/HPC capacity, the company provides customers a secondary supplier which enhances supply-chain resilience.
ESG analysis
ESG risks
| Risks | Management | Analystcomments | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive/board quality | 2 | The board demonstrates strong governance oversight, with 42% independent directors, regular performance evaluations, and ESG-linked executive compensation. Governance quality is further supported by a top 5% ranking in Taiwan's corporate governance assessment for nine consecutive years. | |
| G | Capital management | 2 | Capital allocation appears disciplined, balancing expansion investments with shareholder returns. The company funded major capacity growth while maintaining strong profitability and distributed stable cash dividends, reflecting a prudent and shareholder-friendly capital management approach. |
| Related party & transaction | 1 | Related-party transactions appear well governed and transparent. The company states that intercompany dealings follow arm's-length principles and are not used for tax minimization, while directors are required to disclose conflicts and abstain from related decisions. |
Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.
Update Date: 9 Sep 2026
Source: Daiwa, Company