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原始內容
Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT)
Share price (5 Nov): TWD972.00
12-mth rating: Buy (1)
3Q26 results first-take: progress largely on track
Sheng Cheng
(886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Thomas Kim
(886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: NYPCB released its 3Q26 results after market hours on 5 November. Net profit was TWD3.30bn (EPS: TWD5.10), 9% below our estimate and the Bloomberg consensus. Revenue rose 21% QoQ and 49% YoY to TWD16.38bn, in line with expectations. GM was 29.3%, 1.0ppt below our estimate and 0.7ppt below consensus, reflecting yield losses during the Kunshan ramp-up and a more modest BT substrate margin uplift than we had assumed. OPM was 26.4%, versus our 27.5% estimate and 26.5% consensus. Despite operating profit being broadly in line, net profit was weighed down by a higher tax rate (26% vs. our 22% estimate), reflecting increased profitability at NYPCB's China factories.
Looking ahead, we expect modest BT and c.10% ABF price hikes in 4Q26, which would result in mid-teens % QoQ growth in 4Q26E. This is consistent with its October revenue of TWD6.29bn (released 2 November, up 13% MoM and 70% YoY), equivalent to 34% of our 4Q26 forecast (historic range being 33-39%). Per management, the Kunshan plant's UTR has increased to 90-95% in October (vs. 80-85% in 3Q26 and 65-70% in 2Q26). As NYPCB is unwilling to accept LTAs with end clients (compared with its competitors), we believe its bargaining power should be the highest among TW substrate vendors. We have a Buy (1) rating on NYPCB, with a 12-month TP of TWD2,460, based on a target PER of 49x applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected demand for switches.
NYPCB's 3Q26 results highlights
| (TWDm) | Actual | QoQ% | YoY% | Daiwa | Diff % | Consensus | Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,378 | 21% | 49% | 16,326 | 0% | 16,345 | 0% |
| Gross profit | 4,801 | 43% | 357% | 4,948 | -3% | 4,899 | -2% |
| Gross margin (%) | 29.3% | 30.3% | 30.0% | ||||
| Operating profit | 4,323 | 49% | 597% | 4,488 | -4% | 4,330 | 0% |
| Operating margin (%) | 26.4% | 27.5% | 26.5% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 4,454 | 50% | 391% | 4,658 | -4% | 4,548 | -2% |
| Net profit | 3,298 | 46% | 355% | 3,633 | -9% | 3,623 | -9% |
| EPS (TWD) | 5.10 | 46% | 355% | 5.62 | -9% | 5.61 | -9% |
Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg
What's the impact:
Below is our first take on NYPCB's 3Q26 results, released on 5 November.
- 3Q26 net profit missed expectations. Net profit came in at TWD3.30bn (EPS: TWD5.10), 9% below both our estimate (TWD3.63bn) and the Bloomberg consensus (TWD3.62bn). 3Q26 revenue of TWD16.38bn (up 21% QoQ and 49% YoY) was in-line with expectations, while the gross margin reached 29.3%, 1ppt/0.7ppt below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates due to loss on the yield rate as the Kunshan plant ramped up; our gross margin expansion assumption for BT substrate was also too bullish. Operating margin reached 26.4%, versus our 27.5% estimate and the street's 26.5%, mainly on the lower-than-expected gross margin. However, while the operating profit was largely on track with expectations, net profit was dragged down by a higherthan-expected tax rate (26% vs. our 22% estimate) due to rising profitability from factories in China.
Information Technology: Taiwan
5 November 2026
- Business outlook. Looking ahead, we expect modest BT and c.10% ABF price hikes in 4Q26, which would result in mid-teens % QoQ growth in 4Q26. This aligns with NYPCB's October revenue announced on 2 November of TWD6.29bn (up 13% MoM and up 70% YoY), achieving 34% of our 4Q26 revenue forecast (historic range being 33-39%). Per management, the Kunshan plant's UTR has increased to 90-95% in October (vs. 80-85% in 3Q26 and 65-70% in 2Q26). As NYPCB is unwilling to accept LTAs with end clients (compared with its competitors), we believe its bargaining power should be the highest among TW substrate vendors.
What we recommend:
We have a Buy (1) rating on NYPCB, with a 12-month TP of TWD2,460, based on a target PER of 49x applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: weaker-thanexpected demand for switches.
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.