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報告_Daiwa_信驊5274_20260914

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原始內容

Taiwan

ASPEED Technology (5274TT)

Target price:

TWD26,660.00 (from TWD19,800.00)

Share price (14 Sep): TWD17,980.00 | Up/downside: +48.3%

Promising outlook on agentic AI

  • Rising CPU:XPU ratio is becoming a key growth driver for Aspeed…
  • … which indicates solid regular server demand despite supply hiccups
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating and raising 12-month TP to TWD26,660

What's new: We provide our update on Aspeed following its upbeat 4Q26 revenue guidance on 4 September. We believe the strong guidance reaffirms our positive view that agentic AI has served as a catalyst for end demand for regular servers starting early 2026. Baseboard management controller (BMC) shipments for general servers (AI and non-AI together) should grow c.50% YoY in 2026. We believe that the new 4Q26 revenue guidance implies regular server shipment volume will increase c.50% YoY in 2027, hence the 36/34% uplift in our 2027/28E earnings forecasts.

What's the impact: Solid regular server shipments ahead. Aspeed's latest guidance range for its 4Q26 sales at TWD6.6-6.8bn implies 4Q26 BMC shipments of c.12m. With this run-rate, total BMC shipments in 2027 should be near c.50m, much higher than our previous estimate of 36.1m. We attribute the ongoing strength to agentic AI and AI-related generalpurpose demand. We forecast Aspeed's BMC for general servers to increase to 27m in 2027E (from 18m in 2026E and 13m in 2025). At the same time, we expect BMC for AI servers to increase c.50% to 20m in 2027E (up from 13m in 2026E and 5m in 2025). To sum up, we now forecast BMC shipments of 32.7m in 2026 and 47.6m in 2027 (+46% YoY in 2027). Based on our AI-related general server assumptions (excluding non-AI general servers), we expect the CPU:XPU ratio to rise to 1:1.3 in 2027E (from 1:2.6 in 2026E). We expect a rising CPU:XPU ratio to become a key growth driver and share-price catalyst in the years after 2027. Due to the solid end demand, management is considering adjusting its pricing again from November to factor in the additional packaging cost, leading to our higher gross margin assumptions from 4Q26.

New growth opportunities. Following our visits to Aspeed's booth at Computex 2026 and the OCP APAC conference, we believe Aspeed will continually maximise the dollar content per server board. Compared with last year's version (embedded software-defined FPGA), Aspeed is integrating a Lattice FPGA into its next-generation Bridge IC (SMC; AST1840), which should support higher ASPs for its products.

What we recommend: We lift our 2026-28E EPS by 9-36% to factor in our higher BMC shipment assumptions. We lift our 12M TP to TWD26,660 (from TWD19,800), based on an unchanged PER of 66x (high end of its past-3-year PER range of 21-78x), applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. Our 2025-28E EPS CAGR of 83% makes our target PER undemanding, given the resulting PEG ratio of 0.8. Key downside risk: weak AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 6-26% higher than the consensus, likely due to our bullish view on Aspeed's ASP and shipment story.

14 September 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

→

Buy

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 9.3 33.9 32.7
Net profit change 9.1 35.7 34
Core EPS (FD) change 9.1 35.7 34

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 4,409.09-19,220.00
Market cap (USDbn) 23.61
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 152.47
Shares outstanding (m) 42
Major shareholder FENG HUA INVEST (13.9%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 18,268 35,844 52,117
Operating profit (m) 10,096 20,645 29,623
Net profit (m) 8,396 16,814 24,001
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 201.820 404.151 576.907
EPS change (%) 113.8 100.3 42.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 6.0 25.6 26.4
PER (x) 89.1 44.5 31.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.7
DPS 80.0 80.0 120.0
PBR (x) n.a. 29.2 16.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 71.8 34.8 23.6
ROE (%) 85.2 89.0 68.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Aspeed: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecasts vs. consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 16,714 18,268 17,337 26,770 35,844 28,711 39,275 52,117 40,293
Diff (%) 9.3% 5.4% 33.9% 24.8% 32.7% 29.3%
Gross Margin (%) 70.7% 70.6% 69.5% 69.9% 70.9% 68.9% 69.1% 69.7% 68.7%
Operating profit 9,221 10,096 9,470 15,156 20,645 16,379 22,058 29,623 23,490
Op Margin (%) 55.2% 55.3% 54.6% 56.6% 57.6% 57.0% 56.2% 56.8% 58.3%
Net profit 7,697 8,396 7,919 12,395 16,814 13,391 17,911 24,001 18,984
EPS (TWD) 185.01 201.82 190.35 297.93 404.15 321.88 430.52 576.91 456.32
Diff (%) 9.1% 6.0% 35.7% 25.6% 34.0% 26.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Aspeed: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 3,147 3,871 4,573 6,676 6,981 8,041 9,641 11,182 9,085 18,268 35,844 52,117
COGS -970 -1,084 -1,351 -1,962 -2,024 -2,330 -2,817 -3,264 -2,906 -5,366 -10,435 -15,767
Gross profit 2,177 2,788 3,222 4,715 4,957 5,711 6,824 7,917 6,179 12,902 25,410 36,350
Operating expenses -518 -702 -659 -928 -949 -1,077 -1,273 -1,465 -1,518 -2,806 -4,764 -6,727
Operating profit 1,659 2,086 2,564 3,787 4,007 4,633 5,552 6,453 4,660 10,096 20,645 29,623
Non-operating profit 109 180 41 36 135 37 36 36 195 365 243 194
Pre-tax profit 1,768 2,265 2,605 3,822 4,142 4,670 5,588 6,488 4,855 10,461 20,888 29,817
Income taxes -354 -424 -521 -764 -808 -911 -1,090 -1,265 -928 -2,063 -4,073 -5,814
Net profit 1,414 1,841 2,083 3,058 3,334 3,759 4,498 5,223 3,928 8,396 16,814 24,001
Net EPS (TWD) 34.01 44.27 50.10 73.53 80.18 90.40 108.16 125.60 94.4 201.8 404.2 576.9
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 69.2% 72.0% 70.5% 70.6% 71.0% 71.0% 70.8% 70.8% 68.0% 70.6% 70.9% 69.7%
Operating margin 52.7% 53.9% 56.1% 56.7% 57.4% 57.6% 57.6% 57.7% 51.3% 55.3% 57.6% 56.8%
Pre-tax margin 56.2% 58.5% 57.0% 57.3% 59.3% 58.1% 58.0% 58.0% 53.4% 57.3% 58.3% 57.2%
Net margin 44.9% 47.6% 45.6% 45.8% 47.8% 46.7% 46.7% 46.7% 43.2% 46.0% 46.9% 46.1%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 52% 72% 96% 173% 122% 108% 111% 67% 41% 101% 96% 45%
Gross profit 59% 83% 100% 182% 128% 105% 112% 68% 49% 109% 97% 43%
Operating profit 62% 76% 108% 211% 142% 122% 117% 70% 60% 117% 104% 43%
Pre-tax profit 60% 188% 73% 162% 134% 106% 115% 70% 53% 115% 100% 43%
Net profit 59% 193% 72% 155% 136% 104% 116% 71% 53% 114% 100% 43%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 29% 23% 18% 46% 5% 15% 20% 16%
Gross profit 30% 28% 16% 46% 5% 15% 19% 16%
Operating profit 36% 26% 23% 48% 6% 16% 20% 16%
Pre-tax profit 21% 28% 15% 47% 8% 13% 20% 16%
Net profit 18% 30% 13% 47% 9% 13% 20% 16%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Aspeed: BMC TAM forecast

Source: Company

ASPEED Technology (5274 TT): 14 September 2026

Aspeed: 1-year-forward PER bands

Source: Bloomberg

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server BMC shipment (m) 12.8 14.9 6.7 13 18.4 32.7 47.6 53.8
Server BMC ASP (USD) 9.3 10.7 12.3 12.6 13.7 16.1 21.7 27.2
PC/AV extension IC ASP (USD) 15.6 14.7 14.1 14.1 12.2 11.2 11.5 11.2

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server BMC 3,392 4,784 2,581 5,261 7,748 16,629 33,036 46,754
PC/AV extension IC 244 344 276 328 351 367 426 464
Other Revenue 2 82 274 871 985 1,271 2,382 4,899
Total Revenue 3,638 5,210 3,130 6,460 9,085 18,268 35,844 52,117
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,262) (1,819) (1,122) (2,306) (2,906) (5,366) (10,435) (15,767)
SG&A (217) (314) (295) (407) (476) (945) (1,409) (1,910)
Other op.expenses (506) (628) (633) (829) (1,042) (1,861) (3,356) (4,816)
Operating profit 1,652 2,449 1,080 2,918 4,660 10,096 20,645 29,623
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 7 28 73 69 143 139 143 144
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (49) 138 43 180 52 226 100 50
Pre-tax profit 1,610 2,615 1,195 3,167 4,855 10,461 20,888 29,817
Tax (297) (509) (188) (596) (928) (2,063) (4,073) (5,814)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 (1) (1) (1)
Net profit (reported) 1,313 2,106 1,007 2,571 3,928 8,396 16,814 24,001
Net profit (adjusted) 1,313 2,106 1,007 2,571 3,928 8,396 16,814 24,001
EPS (reported)(TWD) 31.572 50.612 24.201 61.806 94.412 201.820 404.151 576.907
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 31.572 50.612 24.201 61.806 94.412 201.820 404.151 576.907
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 31.572 50.612 24.201 61.806 94.412 201.820 404.151 576.907
DPS (TWD) 21.486 28.915 40.909 20.000 52.000 80.000 80.000 120.000
EBIT 1,652 2,449 1,080 2,918 4,660 10,096 20,645 29,623
EBITDA 1,871 2,689 1,385 3,174 4,984 10,285 20,945 30,137

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,610 2,615 1,195 3,167 4,855 10,461 20,888 29,817
Depreciation and amortisation 219 240 306 256 324 190 299 514
Tax paid (297) (509) (188) (596) (928) (2,063) (4,073) (5,814)
Change in working capital (148) (380) 272 (645) 77 (1,466) (2,674) (2,431)
Other operational CF items 305 344 (1,066) 962 167 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 1,689 2,310 519 3,145 4,496 7,122 14,441 22,086
Capex (93) (120) (83) (25) (274) (365) (717) (1,042)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 (46) (130) (50) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (281) (55) 128 (191) (71) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (374) (175) (0) (345) (395) (365) (717) (1,042)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (892) (1,202) (1,702) (756) (1,967) (3,328) (3,328) (4,992)
Other financing CF items (24) (151) (26) (25) (25) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (916) (1,353) (1,728) (781) (1,991) (3,328) (3,328) (4,992)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 398 781 (1,210) 2,018 2,110 3,428 10,396 16,052
Free cash flow 1,595 2,189 436 3,120 4,222 6,756 13,724 21,044

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

ASPEED Technology (5274 TT): 14 September 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 2,510 3,356 1,984 4,011 6,298 9,726 20,122 36,174
Inventory 158 400 306 357 280 588 1,143 1,728
Accounts receivable 831 995 728 1,487 1,642 3,146 6,172 8,974
Other current assets 10 28 405 132 188 188 188 188
Total current assets 3,509 4,779 3,423 5,987 8,408 13,648 27,626 47,064
Fixed assets 189 218 198 355 409 585 1,002 1,530
Goodwill & intangibles 650 757 620 705 608 608 608 608
Other non-current assets 209 173 304 679 909 417 417 417
Total assets 4,557 5,927 4,544 7,726 10,334 15,257 29,653 49,618
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 264 317 242 426 616 962 1,870 2,826
Other current liabilities 667 1,067 438 1,457 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,828
Total current liabilities 931 1,385 680 1,883 2,444 2,789 3,698 4,654
Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 79 54 31 204 319 319 319 319
Total liabilities 1,010 1,439 710 2,087 2,763 3,109 4,017 4,973
Share capital 344 378 378 378 378 416 416 416
Reserves/R.E./others 3,203 4,110 3,456 5,261 7,193 11,732 25,219 44,229
Shareholders' equity 3,546 4,488 3,834 5,639 7,571 12,148 25,635 44,645
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 4,557 5,927 4,544 7,726 10,334 15,257 29,653 49,618
EV 745,508 744,662 746,033 744,006 741,720 738,292 727,896 711,844
Net debt/(cash) (2,510) (3,356) (1,984) (4,011) (6,298) (9,726) (20,122) (36,174)
BVPS (TWD) 85.275 107.871 92.162 135.549 181.978 292.009 616.194 1,073.135

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 18.7 43.2 (39.9) 106.4 40.6 101.1 96.2 45.4
EBITDA (YoY) 26.6 43.7 (48.5) 129.1 57.0 106.4 103.6 43.9
Operating profit (YoY) 30.0 48.2 (55.9) 170.3 59.7 116.6 104.5 43.5
Net profit (YoY) 30.7 60.4 (52.2) 155.4 52.8 113.8 100.3 42.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 30.5 60.3 (52.2) 155.4 52.8 113.8 100.3 42.7
Gross-profit margin 65.3 65.1 64.1 64.3 68.0 70.6 70.9 69.7
EBITDA margin 51.4 51.6 44.3 49.1 54.9 56.3 58.4 57.8
Operating-profit margin 45.4 47.0 34.5 45.2 51.3 55.3 57.6 56.8
Net profit margin 36.1 40.4 32.2 39.8 43.2 46.0 46.9 46.1
ROAE 40.1 52.4 24.2 54.3 59.5 85.2 89.0 68.3
ROAA 31.8 40.2 19.2 41.9 43.5 65.6 74.9 60.6
ROCE 50.5 61.0 25.9 61.6 70.6 102.4 109.3 84.3
ROIC n.a n.a 61.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 18.5 19.5 15.7 18.8 19.1 19.7 19.5 19.5
Accounts receivable (days) 67.7 64.0 100.4 62.6 62.9 47.8 47.4 53.0
Current ratio (x) 3.8 3.5 5.0 3.2 3.4 4.9 7.5 10.1
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 88.8 91.6 80.8 82.6 84.1 84.7 39.6 29.7
Free cash flow yield 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in November 2004, Aspeed is a fabless IC design company specialising in baseboard management controllers (BMCs), which are mostly used for the remote management of servers. Aspeed is a global leader in BMC, with about 70% market share. Its other products include PC/AV extension SoC, which supports the extension of digital signals of PCs or multimedia content to remote terminals; and Cupola360, which is a spherical image processor that supports 360-degree cameras.

ASPEED Technology (5274 TT): 14 September 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Aspeed's board consists of 9 directors, with 4 independent directors. The directors' backgrounds appear to have a high correlation to semiconductors (either education or work experience), which we see as a positive for executive quality. In 2025, Aspeed held 6 board meetings and the average attendee rate was 100%. Given Aspeed's Chairman is also the CEO, we think it is a negative factor for board/executive management as well as external shareholders.
G Capital management 1 Aspeed declared a DPS of TWD80 in 2025, representing an 77% payout ratio. Being a leading global board management controller (BMC) IC design vendor with c.70% market share globally, the company's leading position and asset-light model (major expenses are from R&D employees) allow it to maintain high ROE/ROA ratios and a high dividend payout policy. BMC IC recently penetrated new applications (such as power supply, storage, edge servers), which can improve its profitability on a higher revenue scale, in our view.
Related Supply chain management party & transaction 2 In 2025, there were no sales to or purchases from related parties. In previous years, the main purchases from related parties was from Avago. After selling its fully-owned Emulex unit to Aspeed, Avago (Broadcom) became an Aspeed's shareholder with a c.6% stake in 2016. We believe the bargaining power from its 6% shareholding was not sufficient to preload its IC products on Aspeed's products or earn unfair profits. In any case, this relationship ended in February 2021. As such, we see limited risk from related-party transactions.
S 1 Aspeed ensures that suppliers comply with social responsibility, green environmental protection, occupational safety and health, human rights and RBA, and prefer to work with ISO9001, ISO14001 and ISO45001 certified suppliers. In addition, every Aspeed supplier is required to issue a publicly disclosed sustainability management report.
E Water & wastewater management 1 Being a fabless IC design company, Aspeed's business doesn't involve a production process. According to the company's data, it produced 4,035 tonnes of wastewater in 2025. As such, we see limited risk from its water and waste water management.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 Being a fabless IC design company, Aspeed's business doesn't involve production processes that may produce hazardous materials. That said, the company indicated it would employ green design concepts and simplified product structures throughout its R&D process in order to reduce pollution. As such, we see limited risk from its waste and hazardous materials management.
E GHG emissions 1 Due to its fabless business model, Aspeed produces limited emissions of GHG, wastewater, and waste materials each year. According to the company's data, it produced around 273.5 tonnes of CO2 in 2025.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 14 Sep 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

ASPEED Technology (5274 TT): 14 September 2026

Daiwa