報告_Citi_聯發科2454_20260731

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原始內容

(RIC: 2454.IW, BB: 2454 11)

TWD

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

31 Jul 2026 10:08:41 ET │ 17 pages

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Mediatek (2454.TW)

Raising AI ASIC revenue for 2027

CITI'S TAKE

MediaTek's 2Q26 result was better than market expectation with stable GM/OPM at 46.2% and 15%. The key highlight remained on AI, where MediaTek sees growing demand from both cloud AI infrastructure and Agentic AI at the edge. Production of its first AI ASIC is on track for 4Q26, with company expecting its 2026 AI data center revenue to exceed US$2bn. Management expects AI data center revenue to continue scaling substantially in 2027, supported by stronger customer demand. Reflecting this confidence, the company raised its 2027 AI ASIC TAM to US$80bn and increased its target market share to 15-20% from 10-15%, implying US$1216bn revenue (vs our estimate of US$18bn) reinforcing AI ASIC as one of MediaTek's most important long-term growth drivers. Maintain Buy.

Sustainable and scalable AI revenue growth -Mediatek ' s first AI accelerator remains on track for production in 4Q26, while the second-generation continues progressing smoothly toward high-volume production in 2028 alongside improving advanced packaging yields and supply chain readiness. Management highlighted that it is now engaged with several additional data center ASIC customers, demonstrating a broader pipeline beyond its initial project. It emphasized that execution excellence, close collaboration with customers and supply chain partners, and technology leadership remain its primary competitive advantages. Mediatek is seeing both 2027 and 2028 demand remain strong. It also expects the first- and second-generation ASIC programs to contribute simultaneously in 2028, supporting another meaningful step-up in long-term AI growth.

Building complete AI silicon platform -Beyond custom ASIC design, MediaTek continues expanding into a comprehensive AI silicon platform provider. Rather than supplying individual IP blocks, MediaTek increasingly provides pre-validated subsystem solutions combining SerDes, packaging, memory and connectivity, positioning itself as a strategic partner capable of supporting hyperscalers from chip architecture through complete system implementation. Development of 448G SerDes remains on schedule, with proven silicon expected next year, while investments continue across CPO, optical interconnects, customed memory technologies and 3.5D packaging solutions.

Cloud+Edge AI to support long term growth; reiterate Buy -We believe Mediatek is well-positioned in both edge and cloud AI and expect AI accelerator ASIC to see multiple growth in the next 2-3 years. Our TP is raised to NT$6,800.

Earnings Summary

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Buy

Short-Term View: Upside

Price (31 Jul 26 13:30)

NT$3,555.00

Target price

NT$6,800.00↑

from NT$6,055.00

Expected share price

return

91.3%

Expected dividend yield

1.5%

Expected total return

92.8%

Market Cap

NT$5,701,848M US$175,967M

Price Performance (RIC: 2454.TW, BB: 2454 TT)

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com

Figure 1. Mediatek - 2026 results overview

2Q26

70,308

22,868

24,335

15.29

46.2%

15.0%

16.0%

1Q26

(NT$mn)

Revenue

Gross Profit

Operating Profit

Net Profit

EPS (NTS)

Margins (%)

Gross Margin

Operating margin

Net margin

69,055

22,891

24,154

15.17

46.3%

15.3%

16.2%

2%

2%

0%

1%

1%

• 0.1 ppt

-0.3 ppt

• 0.2 ppt

2Q26

Citi

143,591

66,644

22,848

25,369

15.94

46.4%

15.9%

17.7%

Diff.

6%

5%

0%

-4%

-4%

• 0.2 ppt

-0.9 ppt

-1.7 ppt

2Q26

Cons

146,685

67,710

21,917

22,429

14.11

46.2%

14.9%

15.3%

C 2026 Citigrouo Inc. No redistribution without Citigrouo's written permission.

Diff.

4%

4%

4%

8%

Citi

Prior Est.

150,023

70,488

26,681

29,067

Cons

Prior Est.

152,032

70,046

23,246

23,936

AI ASIC momentum set to accelerate

47.0%

46.1%

MediaTek delivered 2Q26 revenue of NT$152.2bn, reaching the high end of its guidance, supported by continued strength in Smart Edge Platforms despite softer smartphone demand. GM was 46.2%, in line with expectations. The key highlight remained AI, where MediaTek sees growing demand from both cloud AI infrastructure and Agentic AI at the edge. Production of its first AI accelerator remains on schedule for 4Q26, with company expecting its 2026 AI data center revenue to exceed US$2bn. Looking ahead, management expects AI data center revenue to continue scaling substantially in 2027, supported by stronger customer demand. Reflecting this confidence, the company raised its 2027 AI ASIC SAM to US$80bn and increased its target market share to 15-20% from 10-15%, reinforcing AI ASIC as one of MediaTek's most important long-term growth drivers.

Figure 1. Mediatek - 2Q26 results overview

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research, Bloomberg

While smartphone demand remains pressured by rising component costs and cautious consumer spending, MediaTek continues to see long-term opportunities from Agentic AI devices. Its next-generation 2nm flagship smartphone SoC, launched in 3Q26, is expected to deliver significantly stronger AI computing capability with improved power efficiency and cost structure, supporting future premium smartphone share gains. Meanwhile, Smart Edge Platforms grew 26% YoY in 2Q26, driven by continued market share gains across connectivity, computing, automotive and advanced computing products. Management also highlighted its collaboration with Nvidia on RTX AI PCs as an important validation of its capabilities in high-performance CPU, connectivity and system integration. Looking ahead, the company expects its Smart Edge Platform revenue to grow by mid-to-high single digits QoQ in 3Q26, largely offsetting weakness in mobile phones and supporting overall revenue growth. For overall 3Q26 outlook, Mediatek is now looking for 0-5% QoQ sales growth with GM maintained at 46% and opex at 31% at the mid-point.

Reiterate Buy and TP raised to NT$6,800 -We maintain our estimates of US$2.2bn/18bn/40bn for Mediatek's AI ASIC revenue in 2026/2027/2028 anticipating its shipment to reach 500k/4m/4m with substantial ASP upside with its next generation ramp up in 2028. We raise our earnings projection by 0.6%/12%/15% for 2026/2027/2028 reflecting both edge AI and cloud AI's promising growth. Based on unchanged 35x 2027/2028 average EPS as we expect Mediatek to transform into an AI semiconductor company, our new TP is now set at NT$6,800 (rounded).

3Q26

Guidance flat to +5% QoQ

Figure 3. Mediatek - Forward P/E band

NTS

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Mediatek -

-4.8x

-11.0x •

—17.2x

-23.4x

@ 2026 Citioroun Inc. No redistribution without Citigroun's written nermission

Figure 4. Mediatek - Forward P/D band & Rot

NTS

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Figure 2. Mediatek - Estimates Revisions

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research

Figure 3. Mediatek - Forward P/E band

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, company data

30%

15%

0%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, company data

Figure 5. Mediatek - Forecast Summary

NISmn

Net sales

Gross profit

OPEX

Operating profit

Total Non-OP

Pre-tax profit

Income tax

Net profit

Margins (%)

EPS (NT$)

Gross profit

OPEX to Sales Ratio

Operating profit

Pre-tax profit

Net profit

Y/Y(%)

Net sales

Gross profit

OPEX

Operating profit

Pre-tax profit

Q/Q(%)

Net profit

Net sales

Gross profit

Operating profit

Pre-tax profit

Net profit

1Q25

30,053

4,500

34,553

5,024

29,325

18.43

4Q25

150,188

69,281

47,431

21,850

5,298

27,147

4,074

22,925

1026

149,151

69,055

46,164

22,891

4,128

27,019

2,643

24,154

3025

142,097

66,112

43,924

22,188

7,772

29,960

4,509

25,221

17.50

14.40

15.17

15.84

Figure 5. Mediatek - Forecast Summary

4Q27E

461,192

211,393

129,595

81,798

6,096

87,894

10,552

77,116

48.44

45.8

2025

595,966

283,080

179,610

103,470

21,418

124,888

18,770

105,319

66.17

47.5

2026E

645,080

298,055

194,530

103,525

20,827

124,352

14,328

68.53

109,100

46.2

2028E

2027E

1,271,082 2,600,337

576.745

357,406

219,338

23,889

243,228

29,201

213,113"

133.87

45.4

444,624

27,477

472,100

56,678

414,512

260.38

44.1

4Q26E

184,107

83,837

54,312

29,526

5,844

35,370

4,246

30,909

19.42

45.5

1Q27E

208,403

93,450

59,395

34,055

5,854

39,909

4,791

34,887

21.91

44.8

2027E

254,635

112,398

71,298

41,101

5,930

47,031

5,646

41,151

25.85

44.1

2026

152,183

70,308

47,440

22,868

5,094

27,962

3,357

24,335

15.29

46.2

3026E

159,639

74,855

46,615

28,241

5,761

34,001

4,082

29,702

18.66

46.9

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, company data

2Q25

44,499

29,379

3,849

33,228

5,163

27,848

3Q27E

346,853

159,503

97,119

62,385

6,008

68.393

8,211

59,958

37.66

46.0

Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on Mediatek (2454.TW)

Direction:

Upside

Duration:

Within 90 Days

Category:

Thematic driven

We expect Mediatek's positive guidance on AI ASIC sales outlook to support its share price performance in the coming months.

NT$

7,002

5,835

4,668

3,501

2,334

1,167

0

Jul 25

4 197% Upside

NT$6,800.00

4 91% Upside

Bull/Bear: Mediatek (2454.TW)

• Bull case TP is based on its peak cycle valuation of 37x PER to 2027/28E EPS

BASE Assumptions

• 2027/28E GM of >45%

• 2027/28E OPM of >16%

• BEAR Assumptions

• Lower than Al ASIC development

• Worse than expected margins declines

• Bear case TP is based on 18x PER (the mid-point of its historical valuation) to 2027/28E EPS

NT$ 3,500.00

v1.5% Downside

Mediatek

Company description

MediaTek (MTK) is a fabless IC company that designs SoC for smartphone, smart TV, and digital media devices. It also develops chips for connectivity, networking, smart home gadgets, and automotive sectors. It was founded in 1997, is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and is headquartered in Taiwan. It has sales and research subsidiaries in mainland China, Singapore, India, the US, Japan, Korea, Denmark, and England. It primarily sells its products in China and other emerging-market countries.

Investment strategy

We rate MediaTek shares as Buy. We expect Mediatek to ride on 5G migration in emerging markets and market share gain of its high-end Dimensity series in China market as well. In particular, we see strong growth potential from its AI ASIC, NTN-satellite business in the long term. We believe solid fundamentals and strong operating leverage will support Mediatek's margins outlook.

Valuation

Our NT$6,800 target price (rounded) for MediaTek is based on 35x P/E to 2027/2028 EPS, which is 1.5-std above its five-year average forward P/E given the promising outlook from its AI ASIC business starting from 2H26. We believe our target PE is also justified by Mediatek's global and regional peers' trading at an average of 36x PER. AI ASIC development with CSPs should provide more upside from 2027 onwards. We also see Mediatek well prepared for 6G and 6G+NTN Satellite communication. Despite lukewarm smartphone overall deamand, we expect Mediatek to benefit from 5G migration in emerging markets and its Dimensity series should also gain shares in flagship models. Non-smartphone business is also seeing stabilizing TV and IoT demand with Mediatek outgrowing the overall market on its better technology in WiFi 7 and connectivity.

Risks

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected growth from AI ASIC business; 2) more severe competition in the smartphone segment; 3) slower overall demand related to macroeconomic risks, especially for smartphone demand; and 4) further price hikes from foundries.

Mediatek (2454.TW)

Analyst: Laura (Chia Yi) Chen

TWD

4,000

2,000

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Date

Appendix A-1

E 06-Nov-23 16:50:42

1

*1,030.00

882.00

1

[ 30-Apr-25 10:15:39

1,230.00