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報告_Citi_精測6510_20260729

更新 2026-07-31

PDF 原檔:報告_Citi_精測6510_20260729_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260729_citi_CHPT_001.png 18KB 真資料圖 股價走勢折線圖(TWD 500-4000 範圍,橫軸 Sep-Jun),對應報告「Price Performance」段落
260729_citi_CHPT_002.png 135KB 真資料圖 左:Figure 3 CHPT Forward P/E band(12x/28x/44x/60x 帶狀圖,股價線落於 28x-44x 之間);右:Figure 4 CHPT Forward P/B band(1x/5x/9x/13x 帶狀圖 + Forward ROE 右軸)
260729_citi_CHPT_003.png 71KB 真資料圖 Bull/Bear 目標價情境扇形圖:現價 NT$2,370(29 Jul 26)為起點,藍色虛線指向 Bull NT$5,500、灰色虛線指向 Base/現行 TP NT$4,350、紅色虛線指向 Bear NT$2,000
260729_citi_CHPT_004.png 141KB 真資料圖 上:Fundamental Research 評等與目標價歷史圖(標記 06-Feb-26 TP NT$5,000/收盤 NT$3,700、29-Apr-26 TP NT$4,900/收盤 NT$3,630);下:Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch 同期歷史圖

原始內容

(RIC: 0510.1WO, BB: 6510 11)

TWD

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Prepared for Kevin Lu

29 Jul 2026 14:55:23 ET │ 14 pages

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

CHPT (6510.TWO)

AI ASIC and New Product Ramp to Support 2H26E Growth; Revised TP on Sector Multiple Compression; Buy

CITI'S TAKE

CHPT delivered another strong quarter in 2Q26, with GPM/OPM both expanding QoQ and YoY on a richer AI/HPC mix and disciplined opex control. Looking into 3Q26E, mgmt. guided for teens sales growth, with further sequential expansion into 4Q26E, driven by the ramp-up of an AI ASIC project entering mass production and new high-end testing board products. We expect GPM to soften in 2H26E as new products dilute margins, though OPM should hold up at better levels. Key growth projects remain on track, and capacity expansion continues as planned. We trim our TP to NT$4,350 to reflect sector-wide multiple compression rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, and reiterate our Buy rating.

AI ASIC and new products to drive 3Q26E growth -Following a robust 2Q26 performance, we expect the ramp-up of an AI ASIC project moving into mass production, together with new testing board products (high-end burn-in board/SLT board), to be the key growth drivers into 3Q26E. Mgmt. guided for teens QoQ sales growth in 3Q26E, with further sequential expansion expected in 4Q26E. We expect GPM to decline QoQ to 55.2% as new products carry a dilutive margin profile during their early ramp phase. However, we expect the OPM decline to be far more contained at 34.2%, supported by continued opex discipline and operating leverage.

Growth visibility broadening across key projects -Key growth projects remain on track. The AI ASIC project for an US auto maker is still expected to start contributing meaningfully from 2027E, while discussions on next-gen specs and mass production plans for the AS ASIC project led by the US CSP customer are progressing. Mgmt. also noted early-stage co-development of CPO technology with customers, which we view as an additional long-term potential. Capacity expansion remains on schedule, with total capacity set to double by Aug 2026 and expand further to 3X end-2025 levels by 1Q27E. Overall demand across AI/HPC platforms remains robust.

Implications -We tweak our 2026E-28E earnings forecasts to reflect updated guidance. We revise our TP to NT$4,350, based on 35x 2027E EPS (from 40x), to reflect the recent sector-wide valuation contraction rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The revised 35x multiple implies CHPT's avg. forward PE since 2024 +1 SD, which we believe is justified by its leading industry position and its unique business model. Following the recent share pullback, we reiterate our Buy rating.

Earnings Summary

Year to 31Dec Net Profit (NT$M) DilutedEPS (NT$) EPSgrowth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%)
2024A 510 15.55 na 152.5 9.7 6.5 0
2025A 997 30.41 95.6 77.9 8.9 11.9 0.3
2026E 2,044 62.35 105.0 38 7.1 20.3 0.6
2027E 4,066 124.01 98.9 19.1 5.2 30.4 1.3
2028E 4,882 148.88 20.0 15.9 3.9 27.4 2.6

Source: Powered by dataCentral

n Buy / High Risk

Price (29 Jul 26 15:00)

NT$2,370.00

Target price

NT$4,350.00↓

from NT$4,900.00

Expected share price return

83.5%

Expected dividend yield

1.3%

Expected total return

84.9%

Market Cap

NT$77,710M

US$2,400M

Price Performance (RIC: 6510.TWO, BB: 6510 TT)

260729_citi_CHPT_001

Michael Hung AC

+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090

laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091

jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai

+886-2-8726-9093

nicholas.lai@citi.com

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

Prepared for Kevin Lu

6510.TWO: Fiscalyearend31-Dec Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk Price: NT$2,370.00; TP: NT$4,350.00; Market Cap: NT$77,710m; Recomm:Buy/HighRisk
Profit&Loss(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Valuation ratios 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue 3,605 4,806 7,219 12,464 14,825 PE(x) na 77.9 38.0 19.1 15.9
Cost of sales -1,678 -2,138 -3,178 -5,603 -6,772 PB(x) 9.7 8.9 7.1 5.2 3.9
Gross profit 1,927 2,668 4,041 6,861 8,052 EV/EBITDA(x) 96.7 50.6 27.0 13.9 11.1
Gross Margin (%) 53.5 55.5 56.0 55.0 54.3 FCFyield (%) 0.6 1.8 -0.5 1.2 4.5
EBITDA(Adj) 774 1,465 2,724 5,257 6,355 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6
EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) 21.5 30.5 37.7 42.2 42.9 Payout ratio (%) 3 26 24 25 42
Depreciation -285 -275 -271 -286 -379 ROE(%) 6.5 11.9 20.3 30.4 27.4
Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 489 1,190 2,453 4,971 5,977 EBITDA 774 1,465 2,724 5,257 6,355
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 13.6 24.8 34.0 39.9 40.3 Working capital 38 177 -81 0 0
Net interest 27 44 35 36 36 Other -196 -68 -2,488 -1,991 -1,641
Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Operating cashflow 616 1,574 155 3,266 4,715
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 37 -9 20 0 0 Capex -146 -153 -508 -2,300 -1,200
Pre-tax profit 553 1,225 2,508 5,007 6,012 Net acq/disposals -25 -42 -179 0 0
Tax -68 -238 -471 -946 -1,137 Other -17 -177 0 0 0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 25 11 7 6 6 Investing cashflow -188 -372 -687 -2,300 -1,200
Reported net profit 510 997 2,044 4,066 4,882 Dividends paid -16 -256 -502 -1,029 -2,046
Net Margin (%) 14.1 20.7 28.3 32.6 32.9 Financing cashflow -43 -285 2,452 793 349
CoreNPAT 510 997 2,044 4,066 4,882 Net change in cash 400 911 1,920 1,759 3,864
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders 470 1,421 -353 966 3,515
Reported EPS($) 15.55 30.41 62.35 124.01 148.88
Core EPS($) 15.55 30.41 62.35 124.01 148.88
DPS($) 0.50 7.80 15.23 31.23 62.12
CFPS($) 18.78 48.01 4.74 99.62 143.79
14.32 43.34 -10.77 29.48 107.20
FCFPS($) BVPS($) 244.83 267.06 335.70 456.12 600.69
Wtdavgordshares(m) 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8
Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8
Growthrates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 25.0 33.3 50.2 72.7 18.9
EBIT (Adj) (%) na 143.5 106.1 102.7 20.2
CoreNPAT(%) na 95.6 105.0 98.9 20.0
CoreEPS(%) na 95.6 105.0 98.9 20.0
BalanceSheet(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash&cashequiv. 3,093 4,004 5,924 7,683 11,547
Accounts receivables 1,048 688 1,398 1,910 2,224
Inventory 571 787 1,799 2,509 3,016
Net fixed &other tangibles 4,197 3,980 4,145 6,042 6,709
Goodwill &intangibles 25 18 114 114 114
Financial &other assets 225 474 2,921 4,030 4,712
Total assets 9,158 9,951 16,302 22,289 28,322
Accounts payable 380 263 696 969 1,164
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 1,885 2,678 3,027
Provisions &other liab 721 907 2,382 3,243 3,857
Total liabilities 1,101 1,170 4,964 6,890 8,047
Minority interests 21 10 3 -3 20,283 -9
Shareholders' equity 8,037 8,770 11,335 15,401
Total equity 8,058 8,780 11,338 15,399 20,274
Net debt (Adj) -3,093 -4,004 -4,038 -5,005 -8,520
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) -38.4
For definitions of the items in this table, please click here. -45.6 -35.6 -32.5 -42.0

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 1. CHPT - 2Q26 earnings review

2Q26 1Q26 2Q25 2Q25 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26
(NT$mn) Actual Actual Q/Q Actual Y/Y Citi Diff. Cons. Diff.
Revenue 1,640 1,357 21% 1,216 35% 1,547 6% 1,608 2%
Gross profit 943 771 22% 679 39% 871 8% 903 4%
Gross margin 57.5% 56.8% +0.7 ppt 55.8% +1.7 ppt 56.3% +1.2 ppt 56.1% +1.4 ppt
Op. profit 570 397 43% 314 82% 483 18% 516 10%
OP margin 34.7% 29.3% +5.5 ppt 25.8% +8.9 ppt 31.3% +3.5 ppt 32.1% +2.7 ppt
Net income 494 342 44% 216 129% 397 25% 415 19%
EPS (NT$) 15.06 10.43 44% 6.58 129% 12.10 25% 13.11 15%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus

Figure 2. CHPT - Earnings estimates revision

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NT$mn) New Old Chg. New Old Chg. New Old Chg.
Sales 7,219 7,143 1% 12,464 12,004 4% 14,825 14,640 1%
Sequential growth 50% 49% 73% 68% 19% 22%
Gross profit 4,041 3,995 1% 6,861 6,697 2% 8,052 8,142 -1%
Opex 1,588 1,556 2% 1,890 1,756 8% 2,075 2,123 -2%
Operating profit 2,453 2,439 1% 4,971 4,941 1% 5,977 6,020 -1%
Pre-tax profit 2,508 2,472 1% 5,007 4,960 1% 6,012 6,039 0%
Net income 2,044 2,004 2% 4,066 4,005 2% 4,882 4,873 0%
EPS (NT$) 62.35 61.11 2% 124.01 122.15 2% 148.88 148.62 0%
Gross margin 56.0% 55.9% +0.1 ppt 55.0% 55.8% -0.7 ppt 54.3% 55.6% -1.3 ppt
Opex ratio 22.0% 21.8% +0.2 ppt 15.2% 14.6% +0.5 ppt 14.0% 14.5% -0.5 ppt
Operating margin 34.0% 34.1% -0.2 ppt 39.9% 41.2% -1.3 ppt 40.3% 41.1% -0.8 ppt
Net margin 28.3% 28.1% +0.3 ppt 32.6% 33.4% -0.7 ppt 32.9% 33.3% -0.4 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates

260729_citi_CHPT_002

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 5. CHPT - Quarterly earnings forecast

(NT$in Mn, year-end Dec) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 1,357 1,640 1,957 2,266 2,486 2,902 3,518 3,559 4,806 7,219 12,464 14,825
Gross Profit 771 943 1,081 1,247 1,365 1,593 1,943 1,960 2,668 4,041 6,861 8,052
OPEX (373) (373) (411) (430) (423) (459) (492) (516) (1,478) (1,588) (1,890) (2,075)
Operating profit 397 570 670 816 942 1,134 1,451 1,444 1,190 2,453 4,971 5,977
Total Non-OP 21 26 0 7 7 20 0 7 34 55 36 36
Pre-tax profit 418 596 671 823 949 1,155 1,451 1,452 1,225 2,508 5,007 6,012
Income tax (80) (103) (131) (158) (181) (216) (272) (277) (238) (471) (946) (1,137)
Net Profit 342 494 541 667 770 940 1,181 1,176 997 2,044 4,066 4,882
EPS (NT$) 10.43 15.06 16.51 20.35 23.49 28.66 36.00 35.86 30.41 62.35 124.01 148.88
Revenue mix
Wafer testing 70% 76% 72% 69% 68% 67% 68% 67% 65% 72% 68% 61%
IC testing 14% 18% 23% 27% 29% 29% 29% 30% 25% 21% 29% 37%
Others 16% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 10% 7% 3% 3%
Margins (%)
Gross profit 56.8% 57.5% 55.2% 55.0% 54.9% 54.9% 55.2% 55.1% 55.5% 56.0% 55.0% 54.3%
OPEXtosales 27.5% 22.8% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.8% 14.0% 14.5% 30.7% 22.0% 15.2% 14.0%
Operating Margin 29.3% 34.7% 34.2% 36.0% 37.9% 39.1% 41.2% 40.6% 24.8% 34.0% 39.9% 40.3%
Pre-tax profit 30.8% 36.3% 34.3% 36.3% 38.2% 39.8% 41.3% 40.8% 25.5% 34.7% 40.2% 40.6%
Net Margin 25.2% 30.1% 27.7% 29.4% 31.0% 32.4% 33.6% 33.0% 20.7% 28.3% 32.6% 32.9%
Y/Y
Net sales 17.8% 34.9% 57.5% 89.4% 83.1% 77.0% 79.8% 57.1% 33.3% 50.2% 72.7% 18.9%
Gross profit 24.3% 38.9% 54.5% 86.1% 77.1% 68.9% 79.8% 57.3% 27.4% 48.7% 76.3% 20.9%
Operating profit 58.8% 81.5% 118.2% 155.5% 137.1% 99.1% 116.5% 77.0% 143.5% 106.1% 102.7% 20.2%
Pre-tax profit 56.3% 127.6% 97.4% 131.5% 126.9% 93.8% 116.4% 76.3% 121.6% 104.8% 99.6% 20.1%
Net Margin 54.6% 129.1% 96.5% 134.3% 125.2% 90.3% 118.0% 76.3% 95.6% 105.0% 98.9% 20.0%
Q/Q
Net sales 13.5% 20.8% 19.3% 15.8% 10% 17% 21% 1%
Gross profit 15.1% 22.4% 14.6% 15.3% 9% 17% 22% 1%
Operating profit 24.3% 43.4% 17.6% 21.8% 15% 20% 28% 0%
Pre-tax profit 17.6% 42.4% 12.6% 22.8% 15% 22% 26% 0%
Net Margin 20.0% 44.5% 9.6% 23.2% 15% 22% 26% 0%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates

NT$

5,502

4,585

3,668

2,751

1,834

917

0

Jul 25

gen Al GPU architecture and full-scale production of US CSP AI ASIC project.

NT$ 2,000.00

• 16% Downside

NT$4,350.00

47 < 132% Upside

NT$ 4,350.00

4 84% Upside

Bull/Bear: CHPT (6510.TWO)

260729_citi_CHPT_003

• Target PE multiple of 40x

BASE Assumptions

  • @ · Overall revenue growth of +50% in 2026E, probe card PCB and load board remaining the primary growth engines as Al/HPC delivers the highest contribution. · Target PE multiple of 35x

BEAR Assumptions

• Slower-than-expected revenue growth of +25% in 2026E, caused by sub-optimal capacity utilization or delays in major US

Prepared for Kevin Lu

  • AI GPU/ASIC projects. · Target PE multiple of 16x

Prepared for Kevin Lu

CHPT

Company description

Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT), established in 2005, is a global leader in semiconductor test interfaces. Historically focused on the smartphone AP segment, CHPT has successfully pivoted its strategic focus towards highgrowth AI/HPC applications. Utilizing its unique "All-in-House" vertical integration model and leading mechanical design & simulation technology, the company specializes in probe cards, probe card PCBs, and load boards for top-tier chipmakers. This comprehensive portfolio effectively addresses high-frequency signal bottlenecks, providing one-stop-shop solutions that ensure structural reliability across the global AI computing supply chain.

Investment strategy

We rate CHPT at Buy/High Risk (1H). We believe CHPT is well positioned for the AI infrastructure cycle, with leadership supported by its unique "All-inHouse" vertical integration model and broad participation across next-gen AI GPU and US AI ASIC projects. Its technical high ground in advanced nodes solutions and dedicated localized support provide it a defensible position, in our view, as advanced packaging demand expands. The company captures a wider share of the test interface value chain across probe PCBs, load boards, and high-end burn-in boards, providing a multi-layered earnings engine.

Valuation

We value CHPT using a PE-based approach that factors in earnings momentum and the structural shift towards high-end testing. Our target price of NT$4,350 is derived from applying 35x to 2027E EPS, implying the company's average forward PE since 2024 +1 SD, which we believe is justified given the company's entrenched position in the 2nm/3nm testing segment, rising contribution from US AI GPU & AI ASIC projects, and the unique competitive advantage of its "All-in-House" vertical integration model. With these structural drivers in place, and as we believe the market is starting to value it as an AI/HPC play (rather than a consumer electronics stock), we expect the multiple to hold at a premium relative to its historical averages.

Risks

Our quant system rates the CHPT stock as High Risk for its share price volatility.

Key downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price, and to our earnings forecasts, include: 1) margin compression from lower-than-expected utilization rates; 2) execution delays in concentrated US AI GPU and ASIC programs; 3) intensifying competition in testing boards from global peers; and 4) structural gross margin dilution from a shift towards high-end burn-in boards.

Analyst: Michael Hung

Date

TWD

4,000

2,000

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1