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報告_Citi_國巨2327_20260729

更新 2026-07-31

PDF 原檔:報告_Citi_國巨2327_20260729_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-31)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260729_citi_yageo_001.png 14KB 真資料圖 股價走勢折線圖(TWD,Sep–Jun,約 0–1,000+ 區間)
260729_citi_yageo_002.png 114KB 真資料圖 Figure 2/3 並排圓餅圖:2Q26 銷售產品組合(MLCC 19%/Tantalum 24%/Magnetics 24%/Resistor 14%/Sensors 11%/Other 8%)與應用組合(Computing & Enterprise 27%/Industrial 28%/Automotive 16%/Consumer 12%/Telecom 12%/Aero/Def/Med 4%)
260729_citi_yageo_003.png 88KB 真資料圖 Figure 4/5 並排圓餅圖:2Q26 銷售地區組合(US 27%/Japan-Asia 27%/China 27%/Europe 19%)與通路組合(Global Distributors 46%/Direct Sales 35%/EMS 18%)
260729_citi_yageo_004.png 56KB 真資料圖 Figure 6 稼動率趨勢折線圖(Commodity vs Specialty/Premium,1Q21–3Q26E),兩線於 3Q26E 皆升至約 90%
260729_citi_yageo_005.png 151KB 真資料圖 Figure 9/10 並排:Forward P/E band(7x/15x/23x/31x)與 Forward P/B band(0.8x/2.6x/4.4x/6.2x + Forward ROE),股價線 Jan-17 至 Jan-26
260729_citi_yageo_006.png 159KB 真資料圖 Bull/Base/Bear 情境圖:Bull NT$2,000(+294% Upside,45x)/Base NT$1,450(+186% Upside,OPM 27.6% in 2026E,35x)/Bear NT$450(-11% Downside,OPM 20.0%,15x),現價 NT$507(2026-07-29)
260729_citi_yageo_007.png 250KB 真資料圖 Ratings and Target Price History(上圖)+ Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch History(下圖),2023-12 至 2026-06,最新第 12 筆評等紀錄 2026-06-08 TP NT$1,500、收盤 NT$751

分類只有三類:真資料圖 / 裝飾·logo·banner / 文字卡。<40KB 未 Read 者免列(預設 logo);本份僅 001 低於 40KB,因其在正文明確標示為「Price Performance」圖表故仍 Read 驗證。

原始內容

(RIC: 2326.IW, BB: 232611)

TWD

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Prepared for Kevin Lu

29 Jul 2026 12:38:28 ET │ 16 pages

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Yageo (2327.TW)

2Q26 Beat on Broad-Based Strength; Recalibrating TP as Sector Multiple Resets, Structural Thesis Intact

CITI'S TAKE

Yageo's 2Q26 results beat across scale and margins, with AI revenue mix rising to 16% and BB ratio climbing to 2.2, underscoring accelerating forward demand. Mgmt.'s 3Q26E guidance for moderate rev growth and further margin improvement, alongside commodity/specialty UTR set to reach 90%+, points to a tightening S/D backdrop, while rising customer interest in multi-year LTAs across AI, computing, and memory sectors signals extending demand visibility. We raise our 2026E-28E EPS forecasts by 11%-13% and lift our ASP growth CAGR assumptions. That said, we adjust our TP to NT$1,450 (from NT$1,500), applying a 35x average 202728E EPS (vs. 40x prior) to reflect the sector's ongoing, deleveraging-driven multiple compression, while maintaining our positive view and Buy rating.

2Q26 results beat on scale and margins -Yageo's reported 2Q26 net profit at NT$9.4bn (+18% QoQ/+88% YoY) beat Citi/cons forecasts by 15%/3%, driven by better scale, margin expansion, and opex control. GPM came in at 38.5% (+0.4ppt QoQ/+2.9ppts YoY), below cons estimate as higher commodity shipments diluted mix; however, we are starting to see early pricing pass-through flow into margins. AI revenue mix rose to 16% (from c.14-15% in 1Q26), while the BB ratio climbed MoM to 2.2 by end-Jun (vs. 1.3 at AGM), pointing to robust forward demand visibility.

Positive from all leading indicators -Mgmt. guided 3Q26 revenue to moderate growth with GPM/OPM improving slightly, as commodity and specialty UTR are set to rise from 2Q26's 80%/85% to 90%+/90%+, and mgmt. does not rule out further price hikes if raw material costs keep climbing. Mgmt. further flagged rising customer interest in signing LTAs across AI, computing, and memory end-markets, implying underlying demand is running ahead of prior expectations. We accordingly raise our 2025-28E ASP growth CAGR assumptions to 22%/23%/27% (from 20%/16%/25%) across Yageo's MLCC/resistor/tantalum lines.

Implications -We raise our 2026E-28E earnings forecasts by 11%-13% to reflect stronger results and guidance. We adjust our TP to NT$1,450, implying 35x avg. 2027E-28E EPS (from NT$1,500 based on 40x), a moderate step-down reflecting the sector's deleverage-driven multiple compression rather than any change to Yageo's earnings trajectory. We expect profitability and growth visibility to keep improving through the cycle. Reiterate Buy.

Earnings Summary

Year to 31Dec Net Profit (NT$M) DilutedEPS (NT$) EPSgrowth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%)
2024A 19,356 9.56 10 53 6.5 13.1 0.8
2025A 23,634 11.51 20.4 44 6.1 14.3 1
2026E 40,811 19.87 72.7 25.5 5.2 22 1.2
2027E 72,611 35.36 77.9 14.3 3.8 30.8 2
2028E 98,682 48.05 35.9 10.6 2.8 30.7 3.6

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Buy

Price (29 Jul 26 13:30)

NT$507.00

Target price

NT$1,450.00↓

from NT$1,500.00

Expected share price return

186.0%

Expected dividend yield

2.0%

Expected total return

188.0%

Market Cap

NT$1,050,233M

US$32,441M

Price Performance (RIC: 2327.TW, BB: 2327 TT)

260729_citi_yageo_001

Michael Hung AC

+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Prepared for Kevin Lu

2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec 2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec 2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec 2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec 2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec 2327.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec NT$507.00; TP: NT$1,450.00; Market Cap: NT$1,050,233m; Recomm:Buy
Profit&Loss(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Valuation ratios 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue 121,667 132,930 184,630 262,437 330,955 PE(x) 53.0 44.0 25.5 14.3 10.6
Cost of sales -79,864 -84,800 -111,651 -141,651 -169,900 PB(x) 6.5 6.1 5.2 3.8 2.8
Gross profit 41,803 48,130 72,979 120,785 161,054 EV/EBITDA(x) 31.8 25.8 16.5 9.3 6.3
Gross Margin (%) 34.4 36.2 39.5 46.0 48.7 FCFyield (%) 2.4 2.4 5.5 6.6 10.2
EBITDA(Adj) 33,014 39,635 59,652 99,714 132,845 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0 3.6
EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) 27.1 29.8 32.3 38.0 40.1 Payout ratio (%) 42 43 30 29 38
Depreciation -9,629 -9,834 -8,700 -7,250 -6,708 ROE(%) 13.1 14.3 22.0 30.8 30.7
Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 23,386 29,801 50,951 92,464 126,137 EBITDA 33,014 39,635 59,652 99,714 132,845
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 19.2 22.4 27.6 35.2 38.1 Working capital 10,346 -37,431 1,044 0 0
Net interest 2,190 1,571 1,340 1,340 1,340 Other -12,198 28,660 2,268 -24,787 -21,128
Associates 846 830 467 0 0 Operating cashflow 31,162 30,863 62,965 74,926 111,717
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 441 -1,082 -27 0 0 Capex -6,646 -6,056 -6,034 -6,034 -6,034
Pre-tax profit 26,863 31,120 52,731 93,804 127,478 Net acq/disposals -6,218 -5,902 -2,487 0 0
Tax -7,377 -7,343 -11,751 -20,899 -28,397 Other -16,896 8,233 0 0 0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. -130 -143 -169 -293 -399 Investing cashflow -29,760 -3,725 -8,522 -6,034 -6,034
Reported net profit 19,356 23,634 40,811 72,611 98,682 Dividends paid -8,369 -10,265 -12,438 -21,477 -38,213
Net Margin (%) 15.9 17.8 22.1 27.7 29.8 Financing cashflow 2,780 -3,135 -7,312 1,315 -2,164
CoreNPAT 19,356 23,634 40,811 72,611 98,682 Net change in cash 8,166 20,356 47,131 70,207 103,518
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders 24,516 24,807 56,930 68,892 105,682
Reported EPS($) 9.56 11.51 19.87 35.36 48.05
Core EPS($) 9.56 11.51 19.87 35.36 48.05
DPS($) 4.03 4.95 6.00 10.36 18.43
CFPS($) 15.39 15.03 30.66 36.49 54.40
FCFPS($) 12.11 12.08 27.72 33.55 51.46
BVPS($) 78.10 83.14 97.15 132.48 180.49
Wtdavgordshares(m) 2,025 2,053 2,054 2,054 2,054
Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) 2,025 2,053 2,054 2,054 2,054
Growthrates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 13.1 9.3 38.9 42.1 26.1
EBIT (Adj) (%) 14.5 27.4 71.0 81.5 36.4
CoreNPAT(%) 11.1 22.1 72.7 77.9 35.9
CoreEPS(%) 10.0 20.4 72.7 77.9 35.9
BalanceSheet(NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash&cashequiv. 61,118 81,473 128,605 198,812 302,330
Accounts receivables 21,969 27,792 42,993 56,852 66,964
Inventory 27,823 31,636 46,528 53,882 62,785
Net fixed &other tangibles 74,072 73,541 68,726 66,675 65,229
assets 86,768 106,315
Financial &other Total assets 366,676 69,648 390,789 85,345 97,469 711,113
Accounts 15,003 18,031 479,685 581,179
payable 26,639 30,890 36,036
70,578
Long-term debt 62,088 58,413 59,728 57,564
Provisions &other liab 100,839 118,256 165,378 188,401 216,271
Total liabilities 204,123 216,793 277,643 306,232 337,085
Minority interests 2,092 3,119 2,361 2,654 3,053
Total equity 162,553 173,997 202,042
-969 274,947 374,028
Net debt (Adj) 27,162 -42,979 -111,871 -217,553
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) 16.7 -0.6 -21.3
For definitions of the items in this please click here. -40.7 -58.2

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 1. Yageo - 2Q26 earnings review

2Q26 1Q26 2Q25 2Q25 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 2Q26
(NT$mn) Actual Actual Q/Q Actual Y/Y Citi Diff. Cons. Diff.
Revenue 44,456 38,166 16% 32,771 36% 40,487 10% 42,712 4%
Gross profit 17,116 14,542 18% 11,652 47% 15,599 10% 16,620 3%
Gross margin 38.5% 38.1% +0.4 ppt 35.6% +2.9 ppt 38.5% -0.0 ppt 38.9% -0.4 ppt
Op. profit 11,749 9,613 22% 7,044 67% 10,332 14% 11,413 3%
OP margin 26.4% 25.2% +1.2 ppt 21.5% +4.9 ppt 25.5% +0.9 ppt 26.7% -0.3 ppt
Net income 9,418 8,001 18% 4,998 88% 8,184 15% 9,156 3%
EPS (NT$) 4.59 3.90 18% 2.43 88% 3.99 15% 4.45 3%
260729_citi_yageo_002
260729_citi_yageo_003

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 6. Yageo - UTR trend

260729_citi_yageo_004

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates

Figure 7. Yageo - Earnings estimates revision

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NT$mn) New Old Chg. New Old Chg. New Old Chg.
Sales 184,630 171,414 8% 262,437 239,989 9% 330,955 305,472 8%
Sequential growth 39% 29% 42% 40% 26% 27%
Gross profit 72,979 67,501 8% 120,785 110,685 9% 161,054 149,150 8%
Opex 22,028 21,739 1% 28,322 28,149 1% 34,917 35,095 -1%
Operating profit 50,951 45,763 11% 92,464 82,536 12% 126,137 114,055 11%
Pre-tax profit 52,731 47,512 11% 93,804 83,876 12% 127,478 115,395 10%
Net income 40,811 36,564 12% 72,611 64,531 13% 98,682 88,789 11%
EPS (NT$) 19.87 17.81 12% 35.36 31.42 13% 48.05 43.24 11%
Gross margin 39.5% 39.4% +0.1 ppt 46.0% 46.1% -0.1 ppt 48.7% 48.8% -0.2 ppt
Opex ratio 11.9% 12.7% -0.8 ppt 10.8% 11.7% -0.9 ppt 10.6% 11.5% -0.9 ppt
Operating margin 27.6% 26.7% +0.9 ppt 35.2% 34.4% +0.8 ppt 38.1% 37.3% +0.8 ppt
Net margin 22.1% 21.3% +0.8 ppt 27.7% 26.9% +0.8 ppt 29.8% 29.1% +0.8 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 8. Passive components peer valuation

Company Ticker Rating LC Target Price Price Market cap P/E(x) P/E(x) EPSgrowth (%) EPSgrowth (%) P/BV (x) P/BV (x) ROE(%) ROE(%) Div yield (%) Div yield (%)
Taiwan
Yageo 2327.TW 1 TWD 1,450.0 507.0 32,441 25.5 14.3 72.6% 78.0% 5.3 3.9 22.0% 30.8% 1.2% 2.0%
Lelon 2472.TW NR TWD NA 220.0 1,119 19.6 14.3 NA 37.0% 2.4 2.6 12.7% 19.0% 1.9% 2.4%
Holy Stone 3026.TW NR TWD NA 474.5 2,431 35.1 12.5 NA 181.5% 7.5 5.3 16.8% 33.9% 2.3% 4.2%
Nichidenbo Corp 3090.TW NR TWD NA 126.5 1,124 14.2 10.6 NA 34.9% 1.8 2.1 12.7% 19.4% 8.1% 11.0%
Taiwan Average 23.6 12.9 4.3 3.5
Japan
Murata 6981.JP 1 JPY 15,000.0 6,231.0 69,226 49.0 32.7 1.9% 50.0% 4.2 3.9 8.8% 12.3% 1.0% 1.1%
TDK 6762.JP 1 JPY 4,500.0 2,746.0 31,813 27.2 22.4 14.8% 21.2% 2.4 2.2 9.8% 10.5% 1.3% 1.5%
Kyocera 6971.JP 1 JPY 4,100.0 3,613.0 28,631 34.9 36.3 504.5% -3.8% 1.4 1.4 4.3% 3.9% 1.4% 1.5%
TaiyoYuden 6976.JP 3 JPY 16,000.0 9,005.0 7,159 76.1 46.2 633.7% 64.8% 3.5 3.3 4.6% 7.4% 1.0% 1.0%
Japan Average 46.8 34.4 2.9 2.7
Korea
SEMCO 009150.KR 1 KRW 3,000,000.0 1,029,000.0 52,894 48.5 22.8 124.5% 112.7% 7.7 5.8 16.2% 29.1% 0.2% 0.2%
SamwhaCapacitor 001820.KR NR KRW NA 62,900.0 450 30.6 20.5 68.3% 49.6% 2.2 2.0 7.5% 10.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Korea Average 39.6 21.6 5.0 3.9
US
Vishay VSH.US NR USD NA 32.7 5,018 43.5 21.2 1606.0% 104.5% 2.3 2.2 5.1% 11.4% 1.2% 1.2%
Littlefuse LFUS.US NR USD NA 390.9 9,915 26.5 22.7 38.3% 17.0% 3.6 3.2 14.0% 14.1% 0.8% 0.9%
US Average 35.0 22.0 2.3 2.2
China
Chaozhou Three-circle China Average 300408.CN NR CNY NA 108.9 30,820 55.2 55.2 44.1 44.1 43.9% 25.3% 8.5 7.4 7.4 15.7% 17.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Average 8.5
40.0 27.0 4.6 3.9

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: powered by dataCentral, Company Reports, Citi Research, FactSet

260729_citi_yageo_005

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Figure 11. Yageo - Quarterly earnings forecast

(NT$in Mn, year-end Dec) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 38,166 44,456 49,122 52,886 58,119 63,740 68,516 72,061 132,930 184,630 262,437 330,955
Gross Profit 14,542 17,116 19,626 21,695 25,170 28,868 31,976 34,772 48,130 72,979 120,785 161,054
OPEX (4,929) (5,368) (5,665) (6,066) (6,289) (6,937) (7,373) (7,722) (18,329) (22,028) (28,322) (34,917)
Operating profit 9,613 11,749 13,961 15,629 18,881 21,930 24,603 27,050 29,801 50,951 92,464 126,137
Total Non-OP 712 474 379 216 303 443 379 216 1,319 1,780 1,340 1,340
Pre-tax profit 10,325 12,222 14,340 15,844 19,184 22,373 24,982 27,265 31,120 52,731 93,804 127,478
Net Profit 8,001 9,418 11,114 12,278 14,848 17,309 19,346 21,110 23,634 40,811 72,611 98,682
EPS (NT$) 3.90 4.59 5.41 5.98 7.23 8.43 9.42 10.28 11.51 19.87 35.36 48.05
Revenue mix
MLCC 19% 19% 21% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 19% 20% 22% 21%
Chip resistors 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14%
Magnetics 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 27% 23% 21% 20%
Tantalum capacitor 24% 24% 24% 25% 26% 28% 29% 30% 22% 24% 28% 32%
Sensor 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 9% 8%
Other components 5% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 7% 6% 5%
Margins (%)
Gross profit 38.1% 38.5% 40.0% 41.0% 43.3% 45.3% 46.7% 48.3% 36.2% 39.5% 46.0% 48.7%
OPEXtosales 12.9% 12.1% 11.5% 11.5% 10.8% 10.9% 10.8% 10.7% 13.8% 11.9% 10.8% 10.6%
Operating Margin 25.2% 26.4% 28.4% 29.6% 32.5% 34.4% 35.9% 37.5% 22.4% 27.6% 35.2% 38.1%
Pre-tax profit 27.1% 27.5% 29.2% 30.0% 33.0% 35.1% 36.5% 37.8% 23.4% 28.6% 35.7% 38.5%
Net Margin 21.0% 21.2% 22.6% 23.2% 25.5% 27.2% 28.2% 29.3% 17.8% 22.1% 27.7% 29.8%
Y/Y
Net sales 22.7% 35.7% 48.5% 47.0% 52.3% 43.4% 39.5% 36.3% 9.3% 38.9% 42.1% 26.1%
Gross profit 31.2% 46.9% 63.9% 61.7% 73.1% 68.7% 62.9% 60.3% 6.2% 31.7% 26.9% 19.9%
Operating profit 48.7% 66.8% 84.6% 79.0% 96.4% 86.7% 76.2% 73.1% 27.4% 71.0% 81.5% 36.4%
Pre-tax profit 43.9% 73.9% 74.6% 82.0% 85.8% 83.1% 74.2% 72.1% 15.8% 69.4% 77.9% 35.9%
Net Margin 44.7% 88.5% 74.9% 81.9% 85.6% 83.8% 74.1% 71.9% 22.1% 72.7% 77.9% 35.9%
Q/Q
Net sales 6.1% 16.5% 10.5% 7.7% 9.9% 9.7% 7.5% 5.2%
Gross profit 8.4% 17.7% 14.7% 10.5% 16.0% 14.7% 10.8% 8.7%
Operating profit 10.1% 22.2% 18.8% 11.9% 20.8% 16.2% 12.2% 9.9%
Pre-tax profit 18.6% 18.4% 17.3% 10.5% 21.1% 16.6% 11.7% 9.1%
Net Margin 18.5% 17.7% 18.0% 10.5% 20.9% 16.6% 11.8% 9.1%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates

NT$

2,004

1,670

1,336

1,002

668

334

0

Jul 25

L. OPM at 20.0% in 2026E

Prepared for Kevin Lu

7 294% Upside

NT$ 1,450.00

186% Upside

Bull/Bear: Yageo (2327.TW)

260729_citi_yageo_006

NT$ 450.00

• 11% Downside

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Yageo

Company description

Established in 1977 and listed in 1993, Yageo is a leading supplier of passive electronic components based in Taiwan. The company offers a wide array of products including MLCC, chip resistors, magnetics, tantalum, and other components, aiming to be the total solution provider for its customers. By capacity, the company currently ranks No. 1 in chip resistor and tantalum and No. 3 in MLCC and inductor globally. Key customers of Yageo include leading EMS, ODMs, and distributors. The company also has 29 sales offices, 51 manufacturing sites, and 20 R&D centers in 29 nations worldwide.

Investment strategy

We have a Buy rating on Yageo shares. Yageo is widely known as a passive electronic component supplier. Although passive components are generally viewed as a commodity, Yageo is no longer a commodity play, in our view, given the company's foray into premium markets through M&As, which should help mitigate the impact of sector cyclicality and order volatility. We expect a more diversified product portfolio to drive stable earnings and better margins, while improving utilization in its commodity component business following the end of inventory digestions should add additional fuel.

Valuation

We set our target price at NT$1,450, based on 35x average 2027E-28E earnings. We value Yageo based on PE as we believe the company's earnings performance and industry dynamics would be the key focuses of the market. Our target multiple of 35x is at the higher end of the trading range since 2022. During this period the company has gone through the cycles, successfully integrated the acquired business to enhance its product offerings, and started to deliver stable margins and earnings.

Risks

Key downside risks to our target price and rating include: 1) slower-thanexpected demand recovery; 2) intensified peer and pricing competition; 3) execution risks associated with M&A integration and synergies; and 4) FX and interest rate fluctuations.

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1