報告_Citi_中華精測6510_20260903

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citivelocity.com

03 Sep 2026 06:47:10 ET │ 11 pages

CHPT (6510.TWO)

Record Aug Sales Extend the Streak; SEMICON Showcase and Probe Card Opportunities Underpin 2027 Upside

CITI'S TAKE

CHPT reported record Aug-26 revenues of NT$638mn (+4% MoM/+54% YoY). QTD 3Q26 revenues have reached NT$1,253mn, tracking largely in line with Citi/cons(BBG) forecasts on the back of robust AI/HPC test interface demand. The momentum was broad-based across AI GPU and ASIC applications, with mgmt. noting it has expanded capacity and is still actively seeking for new facility to increase capacity. Looking ahead, we expect ongoing AI GPU testing board shipments and the upcoming AI ASIC ramp to sustain sequential growth, and we maintain our view of monthly revenues seeing MoM growth throughout the year. We also attended CHPT's booth during SEMICON Taiwan 2026, with detail as below. We reiterate our Buy/HR rating.

• SEMICON Taiwan 2026 - High pin count probe card and high-power BIB complete the testing picture : We visited CHPT's booth at SEMICON Taiwan 2026, where the company showcased a 48k-pin probe card for AI/HPC applications, addressing the ultra-high pin density and signal integrity requirements of wafer level testing for next-gen accelerators. Equally notable was the high-power burn-in board targeted at upcoming ASIC projects, which we view as the missing piece that completes CHPT's back end offering alongside its established testing franchise. Mgmt. also walked through its All-in-House vertically integrated model in detail, from probe head and PCB/substrate to full card assembly and in-house verification. We see this as the key structural differentiator compared to its peers.
• Multiple AI/HPC probe card total solution opportunities on hand : Our supply chain checks indicate CHPT is currently pursuing at least three AI/HPC probe card total solution opportunities: one is a CPU project, the other one is the AI ASIC project for a major US automaker, and the last is another AI ASIC project. We believe the qualification for the US automaker ASIC remains on track, while the CPU project is at the beginning of R&D stage probe card qualification phase. None of these opportunities is included in our current forecast today. Given that a probe card total solution normally carries higher content value than board-only products, we believe any single qualification pass would represent meaningful upside to our 2027E and beyond estimates, and act as a key re-rating catalyst.

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations

Michael Hung AC

+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com

Figure 1. Chrl - Quarterly sales trend

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C 2026 Citioroun Ine No redistribution without Citioroun s written nermission.

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© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research

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© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research

CHPT

Valuation

We value CHPT using a PE-based approach that factors in earnings momentum and the structural shift towards high-end testing. Our target price of NT$4,350 is derived from applying 35x to 2027E EPS, implying the company's average forward PE since 2024 +1 SD, which we believe is justified given the company's entrenched position in the 2nm/3nm testing segment, rising contribution from US AI GPU & AI ASIC projects, and the unique competitive advantage of its "All-in-House" vertical integration model. With these structural drivers in place, and as we believe the market is starting to value it as an AI/HPC play (rather than a consumer electronics stock), we expect the multiple to hold at a premium relative to its historical averages.

Risks

Our quant system rates the CHPT stock as High Risk for its share price volatility.

Key downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price, and to our earnings forecasts, include: 1) margin compression from lower-than-expected utilization rates; 2) execution delays in concentrated US AI GPU and ASIC programs; 3) intensifying competition in testing boards from global peers; and 4) structural gross margin dilution from a shift towards high-end burn-in boards.

CHPT (6510.TWO)

Analyst: Michael Hung

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Date

Appendix A-1

*Indicates Change