PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_AI晶片測試首次覆蓋_20260109_original.pdf
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Deep
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Taiwan Semiconductors
AI Chip Testing - The Hidden Infrastructure Behind the Age of Advanced Packaging; Initiate on MPI at Buy/High Risk
ASEH and KYEC see more upside on testing; ASEH also sees strong growth in CoWoS We have lifted our TSMC's CoWoS estimate in our latest TSMC report. ASEH looks to not just focus on the assembly and integration side, executing complex CoWoS processes, they are also doing wafer testing for Nvidia. We estimate ASEH's leading edge advanced packaging revenue to reach US$4bn in 2027. For KYEC, it is more directly exposed to advanced testing requirements, particularly in the final test and validation of high-performance AI packages. Both companies should benefit from TSMC's wafer testing business for AI chip, and we see GM upside for both given advanced packaging shifts value towards precision manufacturing and deeper test coverage rather than pure volume.
MPI - A unique player in probe card industry for wafer testing - As AI chips move towards costly CoWoS and chiplet-based packages, ensuring known-good-die at wafer level becomes economically essential. As a leading probe card maker in Taiwan, MPI influences yield and cost outcomes in upstream, where defects can be screened before expensive packaging steps. MPI clients include most of the ASICs players like Broadcom and Marvell. It also provides gaming, automotive and I/O die test probe card for Nvidia. With accelerating ASIC momentum and its rising role in advanced chips design, we estimate MPI to deliver a strong 48% sales CAGR through 2025-27E, in line with TSMC's guidance of its AI revenue growth at mid-40s%.
Initiate on MPI at Buy/High Risk with TP of NT$2,800 We initiate on MPI at Buy/High Risk with TP based on the thesis that the company has transitioned from a cyclical probe card supplier to a structural beneficiary of AI-driven test complexity. Despite its premium valuation and very strong share price performance over past ~9 months, accelerating AI ASIC and specs upgrade will drive further upside in our view. We are looking for 77% and 64% earnings growth in 2026 and 2027 thanks to better product mix and more upside from MEMS probe card. The stock has traded at a PER range of 10-45x in the past 3 years. With the promising growth from AI chip, we set PER target of 37x at the high-end of its historical PER to the average of our 2026-27 EPS estimates.