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原始內容
MediaTek
Cloud ASIC ramp approaching a pivotal phase at compelling valuation
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 5,230 TWD | Price: 3,555 TWD
3Q26 sales and margins holding up on resilient smart edge
2Q26 sales was -1% QoQ, on strong smart edge +19% and power IC +14% balanced by continued weak smartphone demand. Despite better mix, rising component cost and similar scale kept GM/OpM stable QoQ at 46.2%/15.0%, taking 2Q26 EPS to NT$15.28. 3Q26 sales was guided +0-5% QoQ led by strong connectivity and auto projects ramp while smartphone remains muted with new flagship ramp dragged by broader market softness and its mix optimization. 3Q26 GM/OpM is guided in line at 46%/15% midpoint and we expect it to reach upper half on better mix and its effort to pass through cost.
'27 ASIC TAM & share lifted; further diversification in '28
In contrast to market concern on TPU design and production delay, Mediatek raised its data center ASIC revenue guide to US$2bn+ in ' 26 and US$12-16bn in ' 27 based on its upward revision of AI accelerator ex-HBM TAM to US$80bn (vs. US$75-80bn prior) as it sees stronger demand and TSMC ' s capacity support. Notably, it highlighted the design of TPUv9t is on track for ramp in early ' 28 and it is working with several customers on data center ASICs. Backed by its advanced technology portfolio including 448G SerDes, CPC (co-packaged copper) and 3.5D packaging and design flows suitable for large reticle size ASIC design, we believe Mediatek has started co-developing the AI accelerator ASIC with xAI set for tape out in 4Q27 along with optionality of other projects (e.g. Meta and Toyota/Denso ADAS ASICs), lifting its cloud ASIC business to US$45.8bn in 2028E.
Troughing '27-28 valuation provides attractive opportunity
With near term business and ASIC progress largely in line with our preview, we keep our ' 26/27/28 EPS at NT$68.61/NT$137.76/NT$347.25. Reiterate our Buy rating and PO at NT$5,230 on 23x 2H27-1H28E P/E. Following the recent pullback, the share is attractive at 25x/10x '27/'28E P/E (vs. its P/E range of 8-25x), backed by its solid sales/earnings outlook in '26-28E at 85%/130% CAGR as operating leverage could accelerate backed by cloud/auto ASIC projects ramp and potential in edge AI with strong smart edge solutions.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,208 | 219,279 | 552,724 |
| EPS | 66.84 | 66.17 | 68.61 | 137.76 | 347.25 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 38.2% | -1.0% | 3.7% | 100.8% | 152.1% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 66.70 | 138.74 | 281.06 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 53.00 | 53.00 | 55.00 | 110.00 | 278.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 89.53 | 92.84 | 85.94 | 135.29 | 237.50 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 53.19x | 53.73x | 51.81x | 25.81x | 10.24x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.55% | 3.09% | 7.82% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 44.42x | 43.33x | 41.43x | 20.05x | 8.24x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 2.50% | 2.59% | 2.40% | 3.78% | 6.63% |
| * For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 9. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
31 July 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| 2026E EPS | 67.67 | 68.61 |
| 2027E EPS | 137.87 | 137.76 |
| 2028E EPS | 346.11 | 347.25 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 133,709.9 | 132,249.6 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 264,244.2 | 273,250.5 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 644,155.1 | 664,630.4 |
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Price | 3,555 TWD |
| Price Objective | 5,230 TWD |
| Date Established | 27-Jul-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 1,130 TWD-4,970TWD |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 175,590 USD / 1,603.9 |
| Market Value (mn) | 5,701,848 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 1,227 USD |
| Free Float | 86.2% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | MDTKF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2454 TT / 2454.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 26.1% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -59.4% |
iQ profile SM MediaTek
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 530,586 | 595,966 | 667,794 | 1,124,645 | 2,255,967 |
| Gross Profit | 263,386 | 283,080 | 303,921 | 494,230 | 951,942 |
| Sell General &Admin Expense | (28,981) | (31,304) | (33,776) | (43,162) | (55,575) |
| Operating Profit | 102,412 | 103,470 | 105,347 | 240,797 | 625,626 |
| Net Interest &Other Income | 16,590 | 20,633 | 21,467 | 15,296 | 20,468 |
| Associates | 517 | 785 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
| Pretax Income | 119,519 | 124,888 | 127,080 | 256,094 | 646,094 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (12,378) | (18,770) | (16,947) | (35,900) | (92,460) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,208 | 219,279 | 552,724 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,208 | 219,279 | 552,724 |
| Depreciation &Amortization | 20,936 | 22,974 | 26,903 | 32,453 | 39,005 |
| Change in Working Capital | (2,076) | (18,295) | 176 | (53,510) | (165,434) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 30,808 | 52,794 | 21,569 | 40,075 | (23,174) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 156,055 | 162,793 | 157,855 | 238,296 | 403,120 |
| Capital Expenditure | (13,771) | (15,009) | (20,986) | (22,820) | (24,853) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (14,671) | (9,972) | 3,770 | (205) | (13) |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | (7,486) | (12,773) | (32,224) | (46,870) | (57,272) |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (35,928) | (37,754) | (49,440) | (69,895) | (82,137) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (87,551) | (86,070) | (85,583) | (88,215) | (176,429) |
| Cash Flow from Financing | (90,119) | (87,675) | (71,347) | (90,187) | (178,388) |
| Free Cash Flow | 142,284 | 147,784 | 136,869 | 215,476 | 378,268 |
| Net Debt | (210,705) | (243,168) | (254,025) | (332,351) | (474,953) |
| Change in Net Debt | (39,560) | (31,534) | (22,796) | (78,215) | (142,595) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant &Equipment | 56,917 | 60,427 | 69,112 | 75,390 | 82,205 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 289,925 | 285,901 | 322,568 | 359,336 | 405,461 |
| Trade Receivables | 44,713 | 62,121 | 78,839 | 103,585 | 238,669 |
| Cash &Equivalents | 219,624 | 247,709 | 283,495 | 361,822 | 504,424 |
| Other Current Assets | 86,688 | 87,626 | 90,230 | 133,960 | 275,282 |
| Total Assets | 697,868 | 743,785 | 844,244 | 1,034,093 | 1,506,041 |
| Long-Term Debt | 0 | 60 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 25,910 | 31,180 | 34,299 | 34,278 | 34,277 |
| Short-Term Debt | 8,919 | 4,481 | 29,351 | 29,351 | 29,351 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 257,983 | 298,869 | 335,982 | 351,613 | 367,229 |
| Total Liabilities | 292,812 | 334,590 | 399,752 | 415,362 | 430,977 |
| Total Equity | 405,055 | 409,195 | 444,492 | 618,731 | 1,075,064 |
| Total Equity &Liabilities | 697,868 | 743,785 | 844,244 | 1,034,093 | 1,506,041 |
| iQ method SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 23.9% | 22.0% | 21.2% | 36.5% | 60.5% |
| Return On Equity | 27.8% | 26.4% | 26.1% | 41.9% | 65.9% |
| Operating Margin | 19.3% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 21.4% | 27.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.2% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 24.3% | 29.5% |
| iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 0.7x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 1.4x | 1.4x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 10.4% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -52.0% | -59.4% | -57.1% | -53.7% | -44.2% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
MediaTek is a fabless IC design company supplying to wireless communications and digital consumer markets. Before taking leadership in mobile SoC area, it had built solid ground in the TV SoC and optical disk drive markets. The firm invests heavily in R&D to seek better positioning in the 5G cycle, and has a complete offering including ASIC, Wi-Fi, PMIC etc. to address applications beyond smartphone, such as IoT and auto.
Investment Rationale
We have Buy rating on MediaTek as we think MediaTek is ready and has the strength to brace for the upcoming proliferation of IoT devices and opportunities in growing markets like ASIC, ARM-based PC, auto, and etc., and we believe its solid balance sheet and cashflow could provide downside support to the share price. Meanwhile, we expect 5G smartphone penetration to be a multi-year theme for the company, with its better competitive landscape in duopoly 5G era and an improved margin profile.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
13.1x
Focus charts and tables
Exhibit 1: Mediatek business analysis
TPU could contribute around NT$62/NT$214 to 2027/28 EPS; xAI AI accelerator to also modestly contribute in '28
| Mediatek business analysis | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '26 | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '27 | TPUv9t | xAI | Merchant | Mediatek '28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (US$bn) | $2.1 | $19.1 | $21.2 | $14.6 | $21.1 | $35.7 | $39.5 | $8.5 | $23.7 | $71.6 |
| Gross profit | $0.9 | $8.8 | $9.6 | $6.2 | $9.5 | $15.7 | $16.2 | $3.7 | $10.4 | $30.2 |
| GMs | 42% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 44% | 42% |
| Opex | $0.8 | $5.5 | $6.3 | $2.5 | $5.6 | $8.0 | $3.6 | $0.9 | $5.9 | $10.4 |
| Opex/sales | 39% | 29% | 30% | 17% | 26% | 23% | 9% | 11% | 25% | 14% |
| Operating profit | $0.1 | $3.3 | $3.3 | $3.7 | $4.0 | $7.6 | $12.6 | $2.7 | $4.5 | $19.9 |
| OpMs | 3% | 17% | 16% | 25% | 19% | 21% | 32% | 32% | 19% | 28% |
| Tax rate | 13% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Net profit (US$bn) | $0.1 | $2.8 | $3.5 | $3.1 | $3.4 | $7.0 | $10.8 | $2.3 | $3.9 | $17.6 |
| EPS (NT$) | $1.1 | $56.2 | $69.1 | $62.3 | $67.7 | $138.3 | $214.0 | $46.1 | $76.7 | $347.6 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 2: Mediatek's 2Q26-3Q26 and 2026-27 estimates BofAe vs. street
Our EPS estimates for '26/27 is now NT$68.61/137.76
| 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | |
| Sales (NT$mn) Sales QoQ / YoY (%) | $152,183 2.0% | $152,183 2.0% | $145,821 -2.2% | $156,165 2.6% | $142,583 -6.3% | $151,092 3.6% | $667,794 12.1% | $651,552 9.3% | $651,622 9.3% | $1,124,645 68.4% | $1,066,233 63.6% | $1,061,185 62.9% |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) GMs (%) | $70,308 46.2% | $70,590 46.4% | $67,285 46.1% | $71,791 46.0% | $65,934 46.2% | $69,578 46.1% | $303,921 45.5% | $297,229 45.6% | $298,345 45.8% | $494,230 43.9% | $471,591 44.2% | $471,134 44.4% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) OpMs (%) | $22,868 15.0% | $25,065 16.5% | $21,663 14.9% | $23,640 15.1% | $21,926 15.4% | $22,914 15.2% | $105,347 15.8% | $109,603 16.8% | $104,214 16.0% | $240,797 21.4% | $239,970 22.5% | $223,045 21.0% |
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) Pretax margins (%) | $27,962 18.4% | $29,075 19.1% | $26,044 17.9% | $28,955 18.5% | $25,225 17.7% | $27,792 18.4% | $127,080 19.0% | $126,156 19.4% | $121,682 18.7% | $256,094 22.8% | $256,511 24.1% | $242,267 22.8% |
| Tax expense (NT$mn) Tax rate (%) | -$3,627 13.0% | -$4,536 15.6% | -$3,843 14.8% | -$4,604 15.9% | -$4,023 15.9% | -$4,155 14.9% | -$17,872 14.1% | -$18,436 14.6% | -$16,582 13.6% | -$36,815 14.4% | -$37,056 14.4% | -$36,921 15.2% |
| Net profit (NT$mn) Net margins (%) | $24,335 16.0% | $24,539 16.1% | $22,201 15.2% | $24,351 15.6% | $21,202 14.9% | $23,637 15.6% | $109,208 16.4% | $107,720 16.5% | $105,101 16.1% | $219,279 19.5% | $219,455 20.6% | $205,346 19.4% |
| EPS (NT$) | $15.29 | $15.42 | $13.89 | $15.30 | $13.32 | $14.75 | $68.61 | $67.67 | $66.29 | $137.76 | $137.87 | $130.35 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 3: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| TAM | Total Addressable Market |
| ASIC | Application Specific Integrated Circuit |
| TPU | Tensor Processing Unit |
| HBM | High Bandwidth Memory |
| ADAS | Advanced Driver Assistance Systems |
Source:
BofA Global Research
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
MediaTek (MDTKF)
Our PO of NT$5,230 is based on 23x 2H27-1H28 P/E. as we are constructive on its broadening ASIC pipeline to drive earnings upgrade cycle and re-rating as it locks in more supply.
Upside risks to our PO are: (1) better than expected smartphone demand, especially in China, (2) a better pricing in mobile communication segment thanks to alleviated competition and rising exposure to high-end/flagship market, and (3) an even more superior investment return on non-op side to uplift its net cash position. (4) Unexpected collaboration with global technology leaders leads to higher than expected margins/profits
Downside risks to our PO are: (1) weaker-than-expected end-market situation in consumer-related smartphone/TV space, (2) macro challenges including inflation/policyrelated pressures, (3) rising competition from existing players and/or newcomers in smartphone/TV SoC (system on chip) space, and (4) ASP/margin pressure caused by each or all of the above and/or rising foundry costs. (4) Bidding process for Meta Inference ASIC is slower than expected.