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報告_BofA_緯創3231_20260909

更新 2026-09-12

PDF 原檔:報告_BofA_緯創3231_20260909_original.pdf

原始內容

Wistron

Reiterate Buy: Aug sales +49% MoM, aided by solid AI momentum; lift PO to NT$265

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 265.00 TWD | Price: 189.00 TWD

Aug'26 sales +49% MoM, mainly driven by AI

Wistron ' s Aug ' 26 sales of NT$460bn grew 49% MoM (+166% YoY), with subsidiary Wiwynn ' s Aug sales of NT$144bn grew 23% MoM (+50% YoY). Wistron ' s strong Aug sales were mainly driven by enterprise AI server projects, with overall AI server rack shipments roughly doubling MoM. Given the strong Aug sales, we lift our 3Q26 sales forecast by 11%. We expect Sep sales to decline 20% MoM to NT$370bn from the high Aug base. Yet, Sep sales should remain above July ' s NT$308bn as we stay positive on AI order momentum into following quarters, driven by Nvidia ' s new Vera Rubin generation.

PC remains soft; Aug shipments down 13% MoM

Wistron ' s Aug NB shipments were 1.4mn (-13% MoM, -36% YoY). We view it as in line with supply chain ' s commentary on weaker demand in 2H26 amid continued component cost inflation issue. This also echoes Wistron management ' s cautious tone that PC shipment should decline 10-20% HoH in 2H26 following earlier order pull-in 1H26. We now expect 3Q26 NB shipment to fall 18% QoQ, implying 1.5mn units of NB shipments in Sep (+8% MoM, -31% YoY) with potential quarter-end pull-in demand.

Lift PO to NT$265; reiterate Buy on solid AI momentum

We lift our 2026-28E EPS by 4-6% to reflect higher sales, mainly driven by AI (with diversifying clients/projects), better operating leverage, and actual 2Q26 data. We raise our PO to NT$265 from NT$238, with our valuation method unchanged at 15x 2H261H27E EPS. We reiterate Buy on Wistron ' s solid multi-year AI server outlook. We expect a positive near-term market reaction to the strong Aug sales.

Estimates (Dec) (NT$) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 17,446 27,408 56,376 71,475 89,432
EPS 6.11 9.04 16.14 19.53 24.44
EPS Change (YoY) 49.7% 47.9% 78.6% 21.0% 25.1%
Dividend / Share 3.80 5.50 6.46 7.81 8.55
Free Cash Flow / Share (3.80) (47.97) (49.54) (39.34) (26.47)
Valuation (Dec)
P/E 30.92x 20.91x 11.71x 9.68x 7.73x
Dividend Yield 2.01% 2.91% 3.42% 4.13% 4.53%
EV / EBITDA* 20.47x 11.23x 6.15x 4.74x 3.91x
Free Cash Flow Yield* -1.80% -24.20% -28.78% -23.95% -16.11%
* For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.

This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 7. Price

09 September 2026

Equity

Key Changes (NT$) Previous Current
Price Obj. 238.00 265.00
2026E EPS 15.32 16.14
2027E EPS 18.48 19.53
2028E EPS 23.43 24.44
2026E EBITDA (m) 158,468.4 167,021.9
2027E EBITDA (m) 207,238.7 216,822.7
2028E EBITDA (m) 246,127.6 262,663.8

Doris Kao >>

Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Taiwan)

+886 2 2376 3722

doris.kao@bofa.com

Robert Cheng >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3731

robert.cheng@bofa.com

Katherine Zhu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 3374

kexin.zhu@bofa.com

Stock Data
Price 189.00 TWD
Price Objective 265.00 TWD
Date Established 9-Sep-2026
Investment Opinion C-1-7
52-Week Range 114.50 TWD-206.00
TWD
Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 19,060 USD / 3,180.1
Market Value (mn) 601,030 TWD
Average Daily Value (mn) 447.36 USD
Free Float 90.8%
BofA Ticker / Exchange WICOF / TAI
Bloomberg / Reuters 3231 TT / 3231.TW
ROE (2026E) 25.5%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) 55.4%

Acronyms, see Exhibit 11

iQ profile SM Wistron

Key Income Statement Data (Dec) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
(NT$ Millions)
Sales 1,049,256 2,186,523 4,091,969 5,569,338 6,778,524
Gross Profit 84,091 133,983 219,851 285,152 346,868
Sell General &Admin Expense (19,141) (24,059) (32,542) (46,656) (58,043)
Operating Profit 38,979 78,553 147,481 188,434 231,645
Net Interest &Other Income 997 (2,296) (20,952) (27,401) (27,327)
Associates NA NA NA NA NA
Pretax Income 39,975 76,257 126,529 161,032 204,318
Tax (expense) / Benefit (9,339) (18,485) (30,458) (38,862) (49,305)
Non-Controlling Interest (13,191) (30,364) (39,695) (50,695) (65,582)
Net Income (Adjusted) 17,446 27,408 56,376 71,475 89,432
Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,854 3,032 3,492 3,659 3,659
Key Cash Flow Statement Data
Net Income 17,446 27,408 56,376 71,475 89,432
Depreciation &Amortization 11,246 12,938 19,541 28,389 31,019
Change in Working Capital (82,466) (218,203) (188,912) (203,799) (187,295)
Deferred Taxation Charge NA NA NA NA NA
Other Adjustments, Net 59,524 72,048 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operations 5,750 (105,810) (112,995) (103,934) (66,844)
Capital Expenditure (16,593) (39,615) (60,000) (40,000) (30,000)
(Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments 2,173 1,935 0 0 0
Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) (5,674) (5,833) 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Investing (20,094) (43,513) (60,000) (40,000) (30,000)
Cost of Dividends Paid (7,462) (10,997) (16,675) (22,550)
Cash Flow from Financing 12,855 217,195 129,885 77,450 (28,590) 71,410
Free Cash Flow (10,843) (145,425) (172,995) (143,934) (96,844)
Net Debt 29,141 140,232 283,343 449,828 575,262
Change in Net Debt (21,988) (64,593) 143,111 166,485 125,434
Key Balance Sheet Data
Property, Plant &Equipment 57,284 87,914 128,963 141,164 140,734
Other Non-Current Assets 52,345 65,680 65,091 64,501 63,912
Trade Receivables 190,483 422,913 591,000 792,786 971,964
Cash &Equivalents 79,880 144,474 101,363 34,878 9,444
Other Current Assets 209,848 376,745 590,198 760,996 943,948
Total Assets 589,841 1,097,726 1,476,615 1,794,325 2,130,003
Long-Term Debt 21,989 44,394 44,394 44,394 44,394
Other Non-Current Liabilities 31,479 67,823 67,823 67,823 67,823
Short-Term Debt 87,033 240,313 340,313 440,313 540,313
Other Current Liabilities 262,554 491,908 684,536 853,322 1,028,158
Total Liabilities 403,055 844,438 1,137,066 1,405,851 1,680,687
Total Equity 186,785 253,288 339,549 388,474 449,316
iQ method SM - Bus Performance*
Return On Capital Employed 10.9% 13.2% 16.4% 16.8% 17.5%
Return On Equity 14.7% 17.7% 25.5% 24.8% 26.1%
Operating Margin 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4%
EBITDA Margin 4.8% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9%
iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings*
Cash Realization Ratio 0.3x -3.9x -2.0x -1.5x -0.7x
Asset Replacement Ratio 1.5x 3.2x 3.2x 1.4x 1.0x
Tax Rate (Reported) 23.4% 24.2% 24.1% 24.1% 24.1%
Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio 15.6% 55.4% 83.4% 115.8% 128.0%
Interest Cover 4.9x 5.0x 5.4x 7.0x 8.6x

Key Metrics

  • For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.

Company Sector

IT Hardware

Company Description

Wistron is one of the top-5 ODMs globally. Server/storage and PC business accounted for 73% and 24% of sales in 2025, respectively. Key server/storage customers include Dell, Lenovo, HPE, Cisco, Nvidia, AMD, Intel. Key NB customers include Dell, Lenovo, Acer. Wistron was spun off from Acer (2353 TT) in 2000 and was incorporated in May 2001. It went publicly listed on the Taiwan stock exchange in Aug 2003. It is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.

Investment Rationale

We assign a Buy rating to Wistron in view of improving sales/profit mix, solid outlook from Wiwynn, high exposure to server business after exiting from low-margin iPhone assembly business, and improving OPM. We believe Wistron will benefit from Dell's strong demand in Nvidia AI GPU server rack as the key supplier.

Stock Data

Price to Book Value

2.3x

Exhibit 1: We lift 2026-28E EPS by 4-6%

Earnings estimates revision summary, 2026-28E

BofA 2026E BofA 2026E BofA 2026E BofA 2027E BofA 2027E BofA 2027E BofA 2028E BofA 2028E BofA 2028E
NT$mn New Old Diff (%) New Old Diff (%) New Old Diff (%)
Sales 4,091,969 3,925,292 4% 5,569,338 5,267,075 6% 6,778,524 6,258,478 8%
Gross profit 219,851 212,179 4% 285,152 280,389 2% 346,868 330,872 5%
Operating profit 147,481 138,928 6% 188,434 178,850 5% 231,645 215,109 8%
Pretax profit 126,529 119,475 6% 161,032 153,447 5% 204,318 189,781 8%
Net income 56,376 53,499 5% 71,475 67,621 6% 89,432 85,718 4%
EPS (NT$) 16.14 15.32 5% 19.53 18.48 6% 24.44 23.43 4%
Margin%
Gross margin 5.37% 5.41% 5.12% 5.32% 5.12% 5.29%
Operating margin 3.60% 3.54% 3.38% 3.40% 3.42% 3.44%
Pre-tax margin 3.09% 3.04% 2.89% 2.91% 3.01% 3.03%
Net margin 1.38% 1.36% 1.28% 1.28% 1.32% 1.37%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates

Exhibit 2: Our 2026-28 EPS estimates are 3-20% below consensus

BofAe vs. consensus, 2026-28E

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
NT$mn BofAe Consensus Diff (%) BofAe Consensus Diff (%) BofAe Consensus Diff (%)
Sales 4,091,969 3,919,631 4% 5,569,338 6,016,726 -7% 6,778,524 7,731,136 -12%
Gross profit 219,851 215,462 2% 285,152 299,091 -5% 346,868 373,259 -7%
Operating profit 147,481 142,102 4% 188,434 202,619 -7% 231,645 257,174 -10%
Pretax profit 126,529 123,297 3% 161,032 177,491 -9% 204,318 228,472 -11%
Net income 56,376 54,217 4% 71,475 78,955 -9% 89,432 101,630 -12%
EPS (NT$) 16.14 16.64 -3% 19.53 23.95 -18% 24.44 30.60 -20%
Margin%
Gross margin 5.37% 5.50% 5.12% 4.97% 5.12% 4.83%
Operating margin 3.60% 3.63% 3.38% 3.37% 3.42% 3.33%
Pre-tax margin 3.09% 3.15% 2.89% 2.95% 3.01% 2.96%
Net margin 1.38% 1.38% 1.28% 1.31% 1.32% 1.31%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg

Exhibit 3: Our new 3Q26E sales/EPS estimates are 12%/6% above consensus

3Q26 forecasts summary

NT$mn 3Q26 BofAe New QoQ% YoY% 3Q26 BofAe Old Diff (%) Consensus Diff (%) 2Q26 3Q25
Sales 1,137,938 27% 100% 1,023,338 11% 1,014,823 12% 895,443 567,805
Gross profit 60,967 20% 45% 55,265 10% 56,698 8% 50,664 41,965
Operating profit 41,622 24% 53% 36,231 15% 37,996 10% 33,447 27,142
Pretax profit 35,267 13% 60% 30,876 14% 32,891 7% 31,084 22,038
Net income 15,924 7% 115% 14,262 12% 14,167 12% 14,827 7,406
EPS (NT$) 4.56 7% 87% 4.08 12% 4.30 6% 4.25 2.44
Margin%
Gross margin 5.36% -0.3 ppt -2.0 ppt 5.40% 0.0 ppt 5.59% -0.2 ppt 5.66% 7.39%
Operating margin 3.66% -0.1 ppt -1.1 ppt 3.54% 0.1 ppt 3.74% -0.1 ppt 3.74% 4.78%
Pre-tax margin 3.10% -0.4 ppt -0.8 ppt 3.02% 0.1 ppt 3.24% -0.1 ppt 3.47% 3.88%
Net margin 1.40% -0.3 ppt 0.1 ppt 1.39% 0.0 ppt 1.40% 0.0 ppt 1.66% 1.30%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company data, Bloomberg consensus. Diff refers to the differences to our new 3Q26 estimates

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: We expect server/storage, as the biggest segment, to comprise 83-89% of 2026-28 sales

Wistron's sales mix, 2018-28E

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company data. PC includes notebook, desktop, and display

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 5: We expect Wistron's own AI business to contribute 48-49% of 2026-28 sales Sales breakdown within server/storage business, 2018-28E

Source: BofA Global Research estimates. Wistron's own AI business includes AI rack and AI component

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 6: Server/storage will maintain key profit driver, accounting for 85-90% of total gross profit

in 2026-28

Wistron's gross profit mix, 2018-28E

Source: BofA Global Research estimates. PC includes notebook, desktop, and display

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 7: We expect Wistron's own AI business to contribute 33-36% of gross profit in 2026-28 Gross profit breakdown within server/storage business, 2018-28E

Source: BofA Global Research estimates. Wistron's own AI business includes AI rack and AI component

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 8: Wistron's historical P/E trading average since 2020 is 9x

P/E trend and -1/+1 standard deviation since 2020

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, TEJ, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: We model 2026-28E sales/net income CAGR at 29%/26%

Quarterly earnings summary, 2026-28E

NT$mn 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales 846,303 895,443 1,137,938 1,212,285 1,249,668 1,310,576 1,468,040 1,541,055 1,553,137 1,606,867 1,767,648 1,850,872 4,091,969 5,569,338 6,778,524
Gross profit 44,094 50,664 60,967 64,126 64,247 67,915 74,511 78,479 79,586 82,906 89,979 94,397 219,851 285,152 346,868
Operating profit 29,137 33,447 41,622 43,275 41,503 44,325 49,555 53,052 52,406 55,107 60,459 63,672 147,481 188,434 231,645
Pretax profit 23,508 31,084 35,267 36,670 34,643 37,296 42,843 46,250 45,556 48,259 53,656 56,847 126,529 161,032 204,318
Net income 9,631 14,827 15,924 15,993 15,108 16,097 19,265 21,006 19,618 21,041 23,706 25,066 56,376 71,475 89,432
EPS (NT$) 2.76 4.25 4.56 4.58 4.13 4.40 5.27 5.74 5.36 5.75 6.48 6.85 16.14 19.53 24.44
Margin%
Gross margin 5.21% 5.66% 5.36% 5.29% 5.14% 5.18% 5.08% 5.09% 5.12% 5.16% 5.09% 5.10% 5.37% 5.12% 5.12%
Operating margin 3.44% 3.74% 3.66% 3.57% 3.32% 3.38% 3.38% 3.44% 3.37% 3.43% 3.42% 3.44% 3.60% 3.38% 3.42%
Pretax margin 2.78% 3.47% 3.10% 3.02% 2.77% 2.85% 2.92% 3.00% 2.93% 3.00% 3.04% 3.07% 3.09% 2.89% 3.01%
Net margin 1.14% 1.66% 1.40% 1.32% 1.21% 1.23% 1.31% 1.36% 1.26% 1.31% 1.34% 1.35% 1.38% 1.28% 1.32%
QoQ%
Sales 17% 6% 27% 7% 3% 5% 12% 5% 1% 3% 10% 5%
Gross profit 9% 15% 20% 5% 0% 6% 10% 5% 1% 4% 9% 5%
Operating profit 14% 15% 24% 4% -4% 7% 12% 7% -1% 5% 10% 5%
Pretax profit 11% 32% 13% 4% -6% 8% 15% 8% -2% 6% 11% 6%
Net income 18% 54% 7% 0% -6% 7% 20% 9% -7% 7% 13% 6%
YoY%
Sales 144% 62% 100% 68% 48% 46% 29% 27% 24% 23% 20% 20% 87% 36% 22%
Gross profit 63% 107% 45% 58% 46% 34% 22% 22% 24% 22% 21% 20% 64% 30% 22%
Operating profit 92% 210% 53% 70% 42% 33% 19% 23% 26% 24% 22% 20% 88% 28% 23%
Pretax profit 59% 71% 60% 72% 47% 20% 21% 26% 32% 29% 25% 23% 66% 27% 27%
Net income 81% 128% 115% 96% 57% 9% 21% 31% 30% 31% 23% 19% 106% 27% 25%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company data

Exhibit 11: Acronyms

Acronyms and their respective definitions

Acronyms Acronyms Acronyms Acronyms Acronyms
AI Artificial Intelligence NB Notebook PO Price Objective
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate NT$ / NTD New Taiwan Dollar RHS Right Hand Side
Diff Difference ODM Original Design Manufacturer RMB Renminbi (Chinese Yuan)
EPS Earnings Per Share OPM Operating Profit Margin SD Standard Deviation
FX Foreign Exchange P/B Price to Book S/S Server/Storage
GM Gross Margin P/E Price to Earnings US United States
GPU Graphic Processing Unit PC Personal Computer US$ / USD US Dollar

Source: BofA Global Research

Exhibit 9: Wistron's historical P/B trading average since 2004 is 0.7x

P/B trend and -1/+1 standard deviation since 2004

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, TEJ, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Price objective basis & risk

Wistron (WICOF)

Our PO of NT$265 is based on 15x 2H26-1H27E EPS. We use 15x valuation multiple (around 1.5SD above historical P/E average since 2022) in view of high server mix, a key position in AI server supply chain with exposure both to component/rack business, and ongoing OPM improvement.

Upside risks to our PO are (1) stronger server market demand, especially for AI, (2) stronger PC demand, (3) share/order win in AI server business, and (4) favorable FX trend.

Downside risks to our PO are (1) softer AI server demand due to AI GPU short supply or supply chain hiccup, (2) weaker PC market demand amid inflation/macro uncertainties, (3) GM pressure due to higher labor/logistics cost, (4) more intensified competition in NB and server business, and (5) unfavorable FX movement (USD/RMB and/or USD/NTD) to weigh on GM and/or non-operating items.