PDF 原檔：報告_BofA_力積電6770_20261022_original.pdf
原始內容
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co
Sustained pricing upcycle and diverse logic business support earnings expansion
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 125.00 TWD | Price: 66.20 TWD
3Q26 margins surged on pricing uplift & higher utilization
3Q26 sales were +23% QoQ driven by +24% ASP across memory and logic businesses more than offsetting a mild decline in wafer shipment due to the capacity and clean room space adjustment following its P5 fab disposal to Micron. On stronger pricing and higher utilization, 3Q26 GMs jumped by 2,000bps QoQ to 48%. Solid sales and margins expansion took 3Q26 EPS to NT$1.38 well above BofAe/Street NT$0.98/0.96.
Power IC and legacy DRAM ASP hike solidify GMs into '27
We expect Powerchip's 4Q26 sales to grow 26% QoQ, backed by continued favorable pricing negotiation in both memory and 8'/mature 12' logic since 3Q26, suggesting further ASP uplift to be reflected in 4Q26 factoring 2-4 months production lead time. With its logic foundry focus shifting to power ICs where supply is tight and customers agree on LTA, it could have another round of 10-20% price hike in early '27. The memory business should also see healthy pricing outlook with strong legacy demand across its commodity and foundry customers, supporting its GM/OpM to 50%/40% levels in 4Q26.
3D AI expansion and niche product focus reduce cyclicality
We model Powerchip's sales will grow by 20% CAGR from '26-28. Beyond memory and logic foundry business, its silicon Interposer capacity is fully loaded benefiting from TSMC outflow. Its WoW for DRAM and logic die stacking for edge AI applications (e.g. smartglasses) and 8'/12' IPD for optical module/EMIB should also ramp, supplemented by a potential upside from HBM wafer processing for Micron from '28. The better niche memory/logic foundry landscape and diversifying drivers should expand its GM to 4950% in '27-28 (vs. BofAe 38% in '26) more sustainable than its pure memory peers.
More sustained pricing upcycle expands EPS and valuation
We lift our 2026-28E EPS by 7-15% to NT$7.78/8.47/8.55. We reiterate our Buy rating and lift PO from NT$110 to NT$125, still based on 15x 2027E P/E (vs. its 8-27x P/E historical range), factoring in stronger sales growth and GM on pricing uptrend.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | (6,777) | (7,813) | 33,817 | 36,804 | 37,187 |
| EPS | (1.64) | (1.86) | 7.78 | 8.47 | 8.55 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | -304.3% | -13.9% | NM | 8.8% | 1.0% |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | (4.10) | (0.183) | 3.63 | 8.08 | 7.43 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | NM | NM | 8.51x | 7.82x | 7.74x |
| EV / EBITDA* | 185.75x | 57.43x | 6.44x | 5.47x | 5.82x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | -5.45% | -0.246% | 5.06% | 11.27% | 10.35% |
| * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 9. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
22 October 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Price Obj. | 110.00 | 125.00 |
| 2026E EPS | 6.78 | 7.78 |
| 2027E EPS | 7.50 | 8.47 |
| 2028E EPS | 8.00 | 8.55 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 42,513.1 | 46,195.3 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 50,541.1 | 54,399.6 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 49,423.8 | 51,076.7 |
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729 mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3726
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Price | 66.20 TWD |
| Price Objective | 125.00 TWD |
| Date Established | 22-Oct-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-9 |
| 52-Week Range | 27.35 TWD-94.50 TWD |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 9,553 USD / 4,712.1 |
| Market Value (mn) | 311,940 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 239.74 USD |
| Free Float | 77.8% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | XCHPF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 6770 TT / 6770.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 31.9% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -19.2% |
iQprofile SM Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 44,726 | 46,730 | 79,059 | 112,192 | 113,579 |
| Gross Profit | 525 | (1,537) | 29,904 | 55,919 | 57,025 |
| Sell General & Admin Expense | (4,737) | (2,797) | (3,837) | (4,446) | (4,593) |
| Operating Profit | (7,965) | (5,960) | 36,605 | 44,097 | 44,748 |
| Net Interest & Other Income | 1,134 | (1,517) | 518 | (409) | (584) |
| Associates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pretax Income | (6,832) | (7,477) | 37,123 | 43,688 | 44,163 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | 54 | (336) | (3,306) | (6,883) | (6,977) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | (6,777) | (7,813) | 33,817 | 36,804 | 37,187 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,144 | 4,193 | 4,347 | 4,347 | 4,347 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | (6,777) | (7,813) | 33,817 | 36,804 | 37,187 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 9,566 | 11,137 | 9,590 | 10,303 | 6,329 |
| Change in Working Capital | (2,058) | 1,383 | (9,015) | (875) | (319) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 5,764 | 3,116 | (5,611) | 409 | 584 |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 6,495 | 7,823 | 28,781 | 46,641 | 43,782 |
| Capital Expenditure | (23,500) | (8,591) | (13,000) | (11,500) | (11,500) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (11,856) | 12,145 | (28,532) | 0 | 0 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 57 | 0 | 42,886 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (35,298) | 3,554 | 1,354 | (11,500) | (11,500) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 1,043 | 693 | 29,093 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Cash Flow from Financing | 6,579 | (5,517) | (9,153) | 0 | 0 |
| Free Cash Flow | (17,005) | (767) | 15,781 | 35,141 | 32,282 |
| Net Debt | (22,314) | (15,709) | (54,963) | (94,500) | (127,642) |
| Change in Net Debt | 42,303 | (2,524) | (13,737) | (35,141) | (32,282) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 124,236 | 122,004 | 88,293 | 89,471 | 93,374 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 14,324 | 12,534 | 14,744 | 14,794 | 14,797 |
| Trade Receivables | 6,417 | 6,550 | 15,210 | 15,679 | 16,041 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 32,034 | 26,749 | 65,451 | 104,988 | 138,130 |
| Other Current Assets | 11,910 | 10,849 | 18,506 | 19,682 | 19,849 |
| Total Assets | 188,921 | 178,686 | 202,204 | 244,614 | 282,191 |
| Long-Term Debt | 8,109 | 10,368 | 9,868 | 9,868 | 9,868 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 61,741 | 63,532 | 40,335 | 39,669 | 39,746 |
| Short-Term Debt | 1,611 | 672 | 620 | 620 | 620 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 28,814 | 22,113 | 21,191 | 20,993 | 21,130 |
| Total Liabilities | 100,275 | 96,685 | 72,015 | 71,150 | 71,364 |
| Total Equity | 88,646 | 82,000 | 130,189 | 173,464 | 210,827 |
| Total Equity & Liabilities | 188,921 | 178,686 | 202,204 | 244,614 | 282,191 |
| iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | -3.7% | -2.9% | 20.0% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| Return On Equity | -7.4% | -9.2% | 31.9% | 24.2% | 19.4% |
| Operating Margin | -17.8% | -12.8% | 46.3% | 39.3% | 39.4% |
| EBITDA Margin | 3.6% | 11.1% | 58.4% | 48.5% | 45.0% |
| iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | NM | NM | 0.9x | 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 2.5x | 0.8x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 1.8x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 0.8% | NM | 8.9% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -25.2% | -19.2% | -42.2% | -54.5% | -60.5% |
| Interest Cover | -5.2x | -3.3x | 26.3x | 28.8x | 26.2x |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
Powerchip (PSMC) is a semiconductor foundry for both logic and memory chips, with production based on both 8inch and 12-inch wafers. The company helps manufacture various kinds of semiconductors, including driver IC, power IC/discrete, DRAM etc., and it has fabs located in Hsinchu and Miaoli.
Investment Rationale
We have an Buy rating on PSMC as we expect its EPS and book value to be boosted by better memory business outlook and logic business transformation.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
2.4x
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Focus table
Exhibit 1: Powerchip 3Q26-4Q26 and 2026-2027 estimates BofAe vs Street
We now model 2026/2027 EPS to be NT$7.78/8.47
| 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - Old | 3Q26 - Street | 4Q26E - BofAe | 4Q26E - Old | 4Q26E - Street | 2026E - BofAe | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Street | 2027E - BofAe | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Street | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (NT$mn) Sales QoQ / YoY (%) | $21,342 23.4% | $14,810 -14.3% | $19,134 10.7% | $26,855 25.8% | $23,485 58.6% | $23,471 22.7% | $79,059 69.2% | $69,159 48.0% | $74,084 58.5% | $112,192 41.9% | $111,712 61.5% | $108,553 46.5% |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) GMs (%) | $10,148 47.5% | $5,829 39.4% | $6,895 36.0% | $13,479 50.2% | $9,765 41.6% | $10,322 44.0% | $29,904 37.8% | $21,871 31.6% | $23,733 32.0% | $55,919 49.8% | $45,428 40.7% | $52,848 48.7% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) OpMs (%) | $7,830 36.7% | $4,952 33.4% | $5,169 27.0% | $10,865 40.5% | $8,769 37.3% | -$1,470 34.3% | $36,605 46.3% | $31,631 45.7% | $31,134 42.0% | $44,097 39.3% | $40,162 36.0% | $40,336 37.2% |
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) Pretax margins (%) | $8,140 38.1% | $4,632 31.3% | $5,347 27.9% | $10,763 40.1% | $8,435 35.9% | $8,045 34.3% | $37,123 47.0% | $31,287 45.2% | $31,547 42.6% | $43,688 38.9% | $38,636 34.6% | $40,759 37.5% |
| Tax expense (NT$mn) Tax rate (%) | -$1,640 20.1% | -$371 8.0% | -$928 17.4% | -$969 9.0% | -$759 9.0% | -$1,056 13.1% | -$3,306 8.9% | -$1,827 5.8% $29,459 | -$2,616 8.3% $28,931 | -$6,883 15.8% $36,804 | -$6,054 15.7% $32,582 | -$6,988 17.1% |
| Net profit (NT$mn) (%) | $6,500 30.5% | $4,262 28.8% | $4,419 23.1% | $9,794 | $7,676 | $6,990 29.8% | $33,817 42.8% | 42.6% | 39.1% | $33,771 31.1% | ||
| Net margins | 36.5% | 32.8% | 29.2% | |||||||||
| EPS (NT$) | $0.98 | 32.7% | ||||||||||
| $1.38 | $0.96 | $2.25 | $1.77 | $7.78 | $6.78 | $8.47 | ||||||
| $1.46 | $6.35 | $7.50 | $7.47 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| PMIC | Power Management IC |
| DDIC | Display driver IC |
| DRAM | Dynamic Random Access Memory |
| IPD | Intelligent Power Devices |
| HBM | High Bandwidth Memory |
| WoW | Wafer on Wafer |
| EMIB | Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge |
Source: BofA Global Research
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BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (XCHPF)
Our PO of NT$125 is based on 15x 2027E P/E (vs. the company's 8-27x P/E historical range) and at the lower-end of its 2nd tier foundry peers' 15-20x. We believe 15x, which is closed to its mid-cycle average and at a discount to peers, is justified as the company's core business has just turned profitable in recent quarters. We use P/E methodology to reflect our view that its earnings could be less cyclical following the restructuring in '26.
Upside risks: 1) faster-than-expected order transfer from non-China customers given the geopolitics and 2) lessened competition and/or stronger end demand to beef up utilization rate and margin profile.
Downside risks: 1) more aggressive capacity expansion to deteriorate balance sheet and cash flow with higher depreciation burden and 2) more aggressive expansion by memory IDMs on niche memory.
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-27）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_BofA_力積電6770_20261022_001.png |
40KB | 真資料圖（股價／評等走勢，不嵌 lib） | XCHPF 股價線與 PO 區塊圖（2024–2026），標註歷次評等與目標價：21-Oct 起 U／PO NT$18、5-Nov PO 15、11-Mar N／19、14-Apr 16、4-Jul 18、16-Sep 21、30-Sep 24、22-Oct 28、28-Jan Liu／4-Feb B／PO 96、15-Jul PO 110；股價 2026 年自約 NT$30 升至 NT$60–90 區間 |