PDF 原檔：報告_BofA_京元電2449_20260808_original.pdf
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72KB | 真資料圖 | KYUFF 股價走勢圖（2024-01～2026-03+）疊加歷次分析師 Price Objective 沿革標記與金額（如 8-Aug PO:NT$143、8-Nov PO:NT$216、7-Mar PO:NT$352 等一系列調整日期與數字） |
原始內容
King Yuan Electronics Corp.
HPC demand resilience more than offsets near term depreciation hike
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 330.00 TWD | Price: 242.00 TWD
Healthy sales; GM dip on milder UTR recovery & cost hike
2Q26 sales was up 9% QoQ backed by Ironwood TPU strength, better consumer builds, foundry chip probing outsourcing and stable Blackwell GPU though partially offset by slower Rubin testing ramp due to spec redesign. While sales remains resilient, 1.5% GMs dilution from Singapore facility ramp and higher summer electricity cost put GMs stable QoQ at 39.5% in 2Q26. The 1x expense on land-use conversion dragged OpM by 180bps QoQ to 25.4%, taking 2Q26 EPS to NT$1.98 (vs. BofAe/street NT$2.12/NT$2.15). 3Q26 sales is guided +7-9% QoQ, as Rubin GPU testing unit ramps through the quarter and healthy Google TPU/CPU demand balanced by soft mobile business. With high-end testers not fully utilized until late-' 26 when GPU testing reaches optimized run-rate and hiking depreciation from equipment/facilities, 3Q26 GM is guided to drop to 36-38%.
Solid position into 2027 across chipset and wafer testing
We model KYEC ' s sales to grow 37% YoY in ' 26 factoring+24% HoH in 2H26, reasonable considering the diversifying demand from ramping GPU, CPU, networking switches and ASICs. Specifically, we expect its sales to grow by 40%+ YoY in ' 27 as it keeps the dominant market share in final testing, burn-in and system level testing for HPC/AI chipsets as its back-end peers focus on the advanced packaging due to space constraint. We think the incremental gains from more chip probing outsourcing and favorable product mix shift and its modest testing price hike amid tight supply should lift its GMs to 40%+ by 4Q26 and into ' 27 even with higher depreciation from its US capacity expansion.
Recent pullback to midcycle val: enhanced buying opp
We cut our EPS for ' 26/27/28 from NT$10.14/18.24/21.32 to NT$8.38/16.59/20.57 on lower sales/GM assumption, and lower PO from NT$370 to NT$330 still on 20x ' 27 P/E (vs. its 10-25x P/E range). We reiterate our Buy rating as we believe the concern on Rubin GPU testing time reduction is overdone and view the recent pullback, which sees valuation at 15x ' 27E P/E, as an enhanced buying opportunity while also noting its solid earnings outlook in ' 26-28E (+57% CAGR).
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 7,779 | 11,016 | 10,769 | 21,325 | 26,437 |
| EPS | 6.06 | 8.58 | 8.38 | 16.59 | 20.57 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 33.2% | 41.6% | -2.3% | 98.0% | 24.0% |
| Dividend / Share | 3.81 | 0.952 | 9.14 | 4.76 | 4.76 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 2.82 | (14.96) | (21.17) | 5.52 | 16.82 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 39.94x | 28.21x | 28.88x | 14.59x | 11.77x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.57% | 0.394% | 3.78% | 1.97% | 1.97% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 25.71x | 21.01x | 13.77x | 8.09x | 6.77x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 1.16% | -6.18% | -8.75% | 2.28% | 6.96% |
| * For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 7. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 5. Price
08 August 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Price Obj. | 370.00 | 330.00 |
| 2026E EPS | 10.14 | 8.38 |
| 2027E EPS | 18.24 | 16.59 |
| 2028E EPS | 21.32 | 20.57 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 27,906.0 | 25,209.0 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 44,765.6 | 42,889.6 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 51,260.2 | 51,282.9 |
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727
haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729 mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3726 cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Price | 242.00 TWD |
| Price Objective | 330.00 TWD |
| Date Established | 8-Aug-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 111.90 TWD-350.00 |
| TWD | |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 9,639 USD / 1,283.9 |
| Market Value (mn) | 310,700 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 215.56 USD |
| Free Float | 89.1% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | KYUFF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2449 TT / 2449.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 16.9% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | 24.4% |
TPU: Tensor Processing Unit
GPU: Graphic Processing Unit
CPU: Central Processing Unit
ASIC: Application Specific Integrated
iQ profile SM King Yuan Electronics Corp.
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 26,856 | 34,934 | 47,865 | 73,889 | 87,374 |
| Gross Profit | 9,344 | 12,522 | 18,804 | 32,342 | 39,060 |
| Sell General &Admin Expense | (2,316) | (2,589) | (4,532) | (4,836) | (5,096) |
| Operating Profit | 6,172 | 9,003 | 12,974 | 25,967 | 32,278 |
| Net Interest &Other Income | (201) | 1,626 | 341 | 400 | 563 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 5,972 | 10,629 | 13,315 | 26,367 | 32,841 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (1,211) | (2,624) | (2,546) | (5,042) | (6,404) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 7,779 | 11,016 | 10,769 | 21,325 | 26,437 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,290 | 1,289 | 1,285 | 1,285 | 1,285 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 4,445 | 7,963 | 10,769 | 21,325 | 26,437 |
| Depreciation &Amortization | 7,324 | 7,513 | 12,235 | 16,923 | 19,005 |
| Change in Working Capital | 1,444 | (1,516) | (3,438) | (6,260) | 966 |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 5,263 | (808) | (266) | 104 | 211 |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 18,475 | 13,152 | 19,300 | 32,092 | 46,618 |
| Capital Expenditure | (14,857) | (32,355) | (46,500) | (25,000) | (25,000) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | 167 | (1,947) | (2,056) | 0 | 0 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 335 | 21,225 | (5,891) | 1,597 | 666 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (14,355) | (13,078) | (54,447) | (23,403) | (24,334) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (3,913) | (4,891) | (1,223) | (11,738) | (6,114) |
| Cash Flow from Financing Free Cash Flow | (2,781) | 4,613 | 24,710 | 4,682 7,092 | 10,318 21,618 |
| 3,619 | (19,204) | (27,200) | |||
| Net Debt | 10,251 | 12,311 | 27,091 | 14,721 | (16,881) |
| Change in Net Debt | 421 | 5,231 | 48,667 | 2,630 | (16,602) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant &Equipment | 34,924 | 60,554 | 95,324 | 103,022 | 108,608 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 7,869 | 11,705 | 20,013 | 21,056 | 21,167 |
| Trade Receivables | 6,032 | 7,203 | 11,464 | 18,735 | 18,832 |
| Cash &Equivalents | 10,329 | 17,964 | 7,526 | 20,896 | 53,498 |
| Other Current Assets | 27,557 | 3,753 | 5,196 | 6,028 | 6,588 |
| Total Assets | 86,711 | 101,178 | 139,523 | 169,737 | 208,692 |
| Long-Term Debt | 20,581 | 30,275 | 34,617 | 35,617 | 36,617 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 4,512 | 4,546 | 9,234 | 9,949 | 10,015 |
| Short-Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 16,907 | 15,919 | 18,698 | 20,583 | 22,200 |
| Total Liabilities | 41,999 | 50,740 | 62,549 | 66,148 | 68,832 |
| Total Equity | 44,711 | 50,438 | 76,974 | 103,588 | 139,860 |
| Total Equity &Liabilities | 86,711 | 101,178 | 139,523 | 169,737 | 208,692 |
| iQ method SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Return On Equity | 18.9% | 23.5% | 16.9% | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| Operating Margin | 23.0% | 25.8% | 27.1% | 35.1% | 36.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 50.3% | 47.3% | 52.7% | 58.0% | 58.7% |
| iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 2.4x | 1.2x | 1.8x | 1.5x | 1.8x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 2.0x | 4.3x | 3.8x | 1.5x | 1.3x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 20.3% | 24.7% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 22.9% | 24.4% | 35.2% | 14.2% | -12.1% |
| Interest Cover | 14.1x | 48.5x | 30.0x | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 7.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, King Yuan Electronics Corp. (KYEC) is a niche Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) company focused on IC testing services, with market shares of 3% in OSAT (IC packaging+testing, number 7 vendor) and 14% in IC testing (number 2 vendor) globally. Its capacity is mainly located in Greater China. In addition to IC testing, it has c.20% revenue exposure to IC packaging, mainly at its Chinese subsidiary and mainly for memory products.
Investment Rationale
We have a Buy rating on KYEC, in view of undervalued upside from smartphone business for both near-term and longer-term, structural opportunities in AI areas led by GPU, as well as the solid GPM/ROE expansion toward into 2025.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
4.0x
Focus tables
Exhibit 1: KYEC 2Q26-3Q26 and 2026-27 estimates BofAe vs. street
We cut our EPS estimates for '26/27 to NT$8.38/16.59
| 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | |
| Sales (NT$mn) Sales QoQ / YoY (%) | $11,142 9.3% | $11,279 10.7% | $11,236 10.2% | $12,163 9.2% | $13,828 22.6% | $12,962 15.4% | $47,865 37.0% | $51,481 47.4% | $49,433 41.5% | $73,889 54.4% | $77,407 50.4% | $70,337 42.3% |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) GMs (%) | $4,400 39.5% | $4,510 40.0% | $4,440 39.5% | $4,561 37.5% | $5,818 42.1% | $5,191 40.0% | $18,804 39.3% | $21,287 41.3% | $19,783 40.0% | $32,342 43.8% | $34,632 44.7% | $29,090 41.4% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) OpMs (%) | $2,828 25.4% | $3,163 28.0% | $3,197 28.5% | $3,122 25.7% | $4,346 31.4% | $3,923 30.3% | $12,974 27.1% | $15,622 30.3% | $14,623 29.6% | $25,967 35.1% | $27,977 36.1% | $23,016 32.7% |
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) | $3,124 | $3,324 | $3,291 | $3,130 | $4,457 | $3,969 | $13,315 | $16,084 | $14,893 | $26,367 | ||
| Pretax margins (%) | 28.0% | 29.5% | 29.3% | 25.7% | 32.2% | 30.6% | 27.8% | 31.2% | 30.1% | 35.7% | $28,899 37.3% | $23,323 33.2% |
| Tax expense (NT$mn) | -$585 | -$604 | -$642 | -$611 | -$869 | -$768 | -$2,546 | -$3,067 | -$2,921 | -$5,042 | -$5,482 | -$4,552 |
| Tax rate (%) | 18.7% | 18.2% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 19.1% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| Net profit (NT$mn) | $2,540 | $2,520 | $3,201 | $10,769 | $13,017 | $11,973 | $21,325 | $23,417 | $18,770 | |||
| Net margins (%) | $2,720 | $2,649 | $3,587 25.9% | |||||||||
| 22.8% | 24.1% | 23.6% | 20.7% | 24.7% | 22.5% | 25.3% | 24.2% | 28.9% | 30.3% | 26.7% | ||
| EPS (NT$) | $1.98 | $2.12 | $2.15 | $1.96 | $2.79 | $2.58 | $8.38 | $10.14 | $9.76 | $16.59 | $18.24 | $15.20 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: King Yuan detailed analysis by major AI customers
We expect Nvidia to still be the main growth driver for King Yuan while Broadcom is ramping from a low base; rest of the business should see mild unit improvement and price hike on high utilization
| KYEC sales analysis | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia revenue contribution | $4,400 | $4,816 | $7,136 | $8,479 | $4,745 | $13,113 | $24,831 | $42,179 |
| Broadcom revenue contribution | $760 | $1,234 | $1,348 | $1,640 | $1,406 | $1,810 | $4,982 | $8,770 |
| KYEC sales ex-Nvidia &Broadcom | $5,032 | $5,092 | $3,679 | $4,250 | $20,705 | $20,010 | $18,053 | $22,939 |
| KYEC total revenue (NT$mn) | $10,192 | $11,142 | $12,163 | $14,369 | $26,856 | $34,934 | $47,865 | $73,889 |
| KYEC sales QoQ/YoY | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Nvidia | 7% | 9% | 48% | 19% | 176% | 89% | 70% | |
| Broadcom | 28% | 62% | 9% | 22% | 29% | 175% | 76% | |
| KYEC sales ex-Nvidia &Broadcom | -4% | 1% | -28% | 16% | -3% | -10% | 27% | |
| KYEC total revenue YoY | 2% | 9% | 9% | 18% | 30% | 37% | 54% | |
| Nvidia assumptions | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Hopper GPU revenue contribution | $147 | $308 | $0 | $0 | $2,018 | $381 | $455 | $0 |
| Blackwell GPU revenue contribution | $3,287 | $3,350 | $2,798 | $1,741 | $800 | $8,726 | $11,176 | $2,084 |
| Rubin GPU revenue contribution | $0 | $171 | $3,067 | $5,234 | $0 | $0 | $8,472 | $31,302 |
| Nvidia data center GPU revenue contribution | $3,434 | $3,829 | $5,865 | $6,975 | $2,818 | $9,106 | $20,103 | $33,385 |
| Nvidia data center CPU revenue contribution | $116 | $171 | $520 | $603 | $245 | $239 | $1,410 | $2,869 |
| RTX gaming GPU revenue contribution | $850 | $816 | $751 | $901 | $1,746 | $3,768 | $3,318 | $5,925 |
| Unit/testing time analysis | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Hopper GPU testing units ('000 units) | 300 | 600 | 0 | 0 | 4,550 | 850 | 900 | 0 |
| Blackwell GPU testing units ('000 units) | 1,865 | 1,810 | 1,350 | 800 | 498 | 5,861 | 5,825 | 900 |
| Rubin GPU testing units ('000 units) | 0 | 50 | 800 | 1,300 | 0 | 0 | 2,150 | 6,280 |
| Nvidia QoQ/YoY | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Hopper GPU revenue contribution | NM | 110% | -100% | NM | -81% | 20% | -100% | |
| Blackwell GPU revenue contribution | 6% | 2% | -16% | -38% | 991% | 28% | -81% | |
| Rubin GPU revenue contribution | NM | NM | 1692% | 71% | 269% | |||
| Nvidia data center GPU revenue contribution QoQ/YoY | 11% | 12% | 53% | 19% | 223% | 121% | 66% | |
| Nvidia data center CPU revenue contribution QoQ/YoY | 77% | 47% | 204% | 16% | -2% | 490% | 104% | |
| RTX gaming GPU revenue contribution QoQ/YoY | -10% | -4% | -8% | 20% | 116% | -12% | 79% | |
| Broadcom assumptions | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| TPU revenue contribution | $197 | $616 | $779 | $1,061 | $383 | $491 | $2,653 | $6,345 |
| Broadcom ex-TPU contribution | $563 | $617 | $569 | $579 | $1,023 | $1,319 | $2,328 | $2,426 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, the company
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
King Yuan Electronics Corp. (KYUFF)
We value KYEC at NT$330 per share, based on 20x 2027E P/E, which is more than one standard deviation above its historical average since 2010. In our view, P/E valuation is appropriate for KYEC given its strong growth in earnings over the past few years, future growth potentials with upside in total addressable market (TAM) and market share, and enhanced cash position. We think 20x P/E, which is above the average P/E level of global OSAT peers, is undemanding, in view of its better ROE profile and 2-3% dividend yield.
Downside risks are
- 1) faster-than-expected pick-up by testing peers in high-end AI area,
- 2) greater-than-expected slowdown in global smartphone/consumer electronics demand,
- 3) potential asset disposal caused by strategy shift amid the ongoing decoupling in the semis supply chain.