PDF 原檔：260823_3665_貿聯_ms_bizlink_original.pdf
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65KB | 真資料圖 | 折線圖：貿聯 NTM 共識本益比（Jan-20～2026-08）與 Avg／±1／±2 標準差水平線；均值約 15x、+1SD 約 19x、+2SD 約 24x；2026 年 3 月一度衝到約 35x，8 月回到約 23x |
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30KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 小尺寸圖示，無可讀資料 |
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21KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 小尺寸圖示，無可讀資料 |
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42KB | 真資料圖 | FY Dec 2026e MS 估值 vs 共識分布圖：營收 MSe 101,953（共識均值 97,267，區間 92,443-103,624）、EBITDA MSe 21,153（均值 20,149）、稅後淨利 MSe 13,491（均值 13,021、上緣 13,850）、EPS MSe 69.77（均值 66.86，區間 62.06-72.21），MS 各項皆高於共識均值 |
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63KB | 真資料圖 | MS 目標價沿革圖（2023-08～2026-08）：336.49 → 287.65 → 882.37 → 900 → 1,200 → 1,750 → 1,900 → 2,150 → 3,665；股價線同期由約 500 升至 2026 年高點約 2,950 後回落至約 2,300 |
原始內容
M August 23, 2026 03:08 PM GMT
Bizlink | Asia Pacific
2H26 GM Back to 30%+; 2H26 Momentum Seen Sustained
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
With the overhang of margin concerns removed, the market should focus more on the 2H26 outlook. Stay OW.
2Q26 operating profit in line: Off revenue of NT$23,281mn (+12% QoQ/+37% YoY), GM expanded by 2.0ppt to 30.7% (largely in line with MSe at 29.9% and consensus at 31.0%), which management attributed to higher utilization, better efficiency and a more favorable revenue mix. Opex of NT$3,144mn (opex ratio of 13.5%) was roughly in line, leading to operating profit of NT$4,010mn (OPM 17.2%), 7% higher than MSe at NT$3,743mn (OPM 16.4%) but in line with consensus at NT$4,012mn (OPM 17.4%). With a non-op loss of NT$113mn, net profit came in at NT$2,982mn (EPS of NT$15.28), 8% above MSe and 2% above consensus (NT$2,752mn and NT$2,912mn, respectively).
2H26 growth driven by HPC: Although there is no official guidance on 3Q26, we estimate revenue could grow 23% QoQ and 55% YoY considering July monthly sales (NT$9,630mn,+13% MoM/+60% YoY) and normal seasonality in August/September. We believe HPC should be the major driver, as power interconnects should continue to see momentum from AI/general servers; meanwhile, data interconnects could grow along with new ASIC model ramp and GPU sever demand. Besides HPC, its semi cap revenue should see sustained momentum (+28% QoQ/+52% YoY for 14% revenue mix in 2Q26). We expect GM to continue expanding on a sequential basis as scale grows larger and efficiency improves. Management indicated that it will maintain good capex discipline and is willing to give up potential business opportunities if the expected return can't justify the investment. We think this demonstrates a mindset of prioritizing profitability over pure top-line growth.
Stay OW: Although GM of 30.7% in 2Q26 was largely in line with the consensus, we think this should remove an overhang among at least some investors that GM might continue to hover below 30% for an extended period of time. The focus should now be directed toward the outlook for 2H26, which we think remains solid. For the longer term, we believe Bizlink should ride AI capex tailwinds through its offerings in the power (power whips, busbars, etc.) and data (both copper and optical) interconnects for volume growth and spec upgrades, as well as the business model shift in the semi cap equipment segment. We remain OW and maintain our PT at NT $3,665 (30x 2027 P/E, implying a PEG of 0.7).
In-line
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | 2730-2860 +852 2239-7689 |
Bizlink (3665.TW, 3665 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$3,665.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 61 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 21, 2026) | NT$2,275.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$3,010.00-912.00 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 193 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$439,908 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$445,484 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$6,271 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 46.57 | 69.77 | 120.77 | 143.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 63.77 | 120.77 | 143.77 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 47.71 | 66.86 | 113.73 | 145.71 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 71,247 | 101,953 | 151,516 | 174,996 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 15,154 | 21,153 | 34,384 | 41,510 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 9,005 | 13,491 | 23,353 | 27,800 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 32.6 | 32.6 | 18.8 | 15.8 |
| P/BV | 6.4 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| RNOA (%) | 24.2 | 26.2 | 39.8 | 41.7 |
| ROE (%) | 24.9 | 28.9 | 40.8 | 36.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1 | 20.9 | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (0.8) | 1.7 | 3.2 | 5.5 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (0.9) | (8.3) | (19.1) | (32.5) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.