260618_功率半導體_ms_power-semis

PDF 原檔：260618_功率半導體_ms_power-semis_original.pdf

原始內容

M June 18, 2026 08:00 AM GMT

Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Power Semis - Supply Driven Upcycle

Global power discrete sales returned to growth since 4Q25. On the back of limited capacity additions in the past two years, we expect power semi pricing to rise further in 2H26. We like Yangjie (OW) on auto localization, while staying UW on Silan Micro and CR Micro on hyped expectations.

Overall power discrete sales back to growth since 4Q25: Global power discrete revenue growth is now tracking at 16% YoY in April and the yoy growth was back to positive territory since 4Q25 ( Exhibit 1 ). Many Greater China power discrete companies issued price hike notices in Feb 2026, citing higher raw material prices and foundry costs. Except for IGBT for automotive customers, distributors and other end-market customers were willing to accept the price hikes, given low inventory and fears of even higher pricing in 2H26. We think pricing power could support gross margin, with gradual improvement expected for the rest of the year.

Mixed demand picture: robust industrial demand, slower EV growth, and weak solar demand: Auto and industrial segments accounted for 72% of total demand in power discrete in 2025, so the power semi market is less affected by weak smartphone and PC sell-through this year due to memory price hikes. Industrial demand is strong, and leading industrial automation companies' revenue grew at 21% in 1Q26 ( Exhibit 4 ). China EV wholesale growth (3MMA) was tracking at 7% yoy in May, up from zero in April ( Exhibit 3 ). Solar demand was weak, with YTD capacity additions down 51% yoy.

Limited supply additions in the past two years: Global leading power discrete companies' capex declined for two consecutive years, and this year we saw a mild capex increase of around 11% ( Exhibit 5 ). In China, we expect limited capacity additions in power discrete (IGBT, MOSFET etc.) in the next three years, as companies like Silan Micro and UNT (688469.SS, NC) shift focus to AI power management (PMIC, etc.). Given limited capacity additions and high utilization, we think if demand does not sharply deteriorate, the upward pricing trend could sustain into 2H26.

We like Yangjie (OW), and raise PTs for Yangjie, Silan Micro and CR Micro:

Although we are positive on power discrete pricing, we think it is a supply-driven upcycle. We raise PTs for Yangjie, Silan Micro and CR Micro but make no rating changes. We remain OW on Yangjie Technology - auto is rising in its mix, and operating efficiency is strong. We remain UW on Silan Micro and CR Micro on hyped expectations. We are EW on Starpower due to depreciation concerns.

Idea

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）

回補驗證：僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片，非全量驗證。