260610_自動化_ms_airtac-hiwin

PDF 原檔：260610_自動化_ms_airtac-hiwin_original.pdf

原始內容

M June 10, 2026 09:36 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Automation - Read-across from Preliminary JMTBA May 2026 Orders

In this report, we focus on preliminary JMTBA orders, which we believe could be a catalyst for Airtac's and Hiwin's share prices.

According to the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders dropped 6% MoM but grew 37% YoY in May 2026 (vs. -2% MoM/+45% YoY in April 2026), to ¥177bn.

• Domestic orders were -9% MoM/+36% YoY (vs. -2% MoM/+43% YoY in April), at ¥45bn.
• Overseas orders were -6% MoM/+38% YoY (vs. -2% MoM/+46% YoY in April), at ¥132bn.

Our view:

• Order growth remained solid on a YoY basis, and we believe growth for all three major regions should stay strong as their manufacturing PMIs all held above the 50 threshold - China/Europe/North America at 50.0/51.6/54.0 in May, vs. 50.3/52.2/52.7 in April.
• Against the backdrop of industry recovery, we remain OW on both Airtac (1590.TW) and Hiwin (2049.TW):
• ° Airtac should continue to gain market share, and valuation appears undemanding at 20x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
• ° Hiwin should see margin expansions in the coming quarters, driven by higher utilization and price hikes. The stock is now trading at 30x 2027e P/E (vs. peak cycle valuation of 35-40x), so we see potential share price upside.

Idea

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Sharon Shih

Equity Analyst

Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2865

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

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Catalyst Event Reaction

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 30x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an upcycle, we think applying a peak cycle valuation of 30x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
• n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation

Risks to Downside

• n Sharper economic downturn in China
• n Miniature linear guideway business development taking more time
• n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 37x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 44% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
• n Market share gains.
• n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker industrial automation demand.
• n More pricing pressure.
• n Market share loss.
• n More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.

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Disclosure Section

The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial services license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India ('SEBI') and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI Registration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research, and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use AI tools in providing research services. All recommendations contained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts.

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