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260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta

更新 2026-06-02

PDF 原檔:260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_original.pdf

原始內容

Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

Target price:

TWD2,922.00 (from TWD2,440.00)

Share price (1 Jun):

TWD2,420.00

|

Up/downside:

+20.7%

2026 Taiwan corporate day conference note

  • Positive AI server power development with faster HVDC adoption
  • New growth drivers from fuel cell, SST, ESS and micro grid
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lifting 12-month TP to TWD2,922

What's new: We provide an update on Delta after our 2026 Taiwan Corporate Day. We reaffirm our positive view on Delta and view it as one of our top ideas within the AI trend.

What's the impact: Position in the power segment remains resilient.

Based on our understanding, we believe there are four potential power architecture solutions to be applied in the Vera Rubin generation, with two from a high-voltage environment and the other two from a low-voltage environment. The high-voltage environment could be divided into 800VDC or +-400VDC, while the total voltage from rack could range from 600kW to 1.5MW, depending on client requirements. As for low-voltage options, these can either be 72kW powershelf (bundled with 6x of 12kW PSUs) or 110kW powershelf (bundled with 6x of Nvidia's standard 18.3kW solution), but width of 18.3kW power supply will be 3x bigger than Delta's 12kW solution. We assume Nvidia's strategy to use HVDC has sped up by c.1 year, and it would have 20-30% of HVDC adoption from this generation and 50% from 2027. This is the key driver of our higher AI server revenue assumption. New growth drivers anticipated by investors. During Taiwan Corporate Day, we believe investor interest has gradually shifted to fuel cells (ie, SOFC or SOEC). Due to the technology licenses from Ceres Power (CWR L), Delta plans to build up trial fuel cell-capacity from 4Q26 and start mass production in 2027. We believe investors are keen to know the competition between Ceres and Bloom Energy in terms of tech spec and Delta's competitors (Weichai [2338 HK, HKD40.14, Outperform (2); covered by Kelvin Lau] and Doosan Enerbility [034020 KS, KRW106,900, Buy (1); covered by Mike Oh]), which are also licensed from Ceres Power. We believe it will become the next growth driver for Delta after HVDC plays out. The micro grid (vs. utility grid) concept with rising new-type energy generation method (eg, fuel cells), solid-state transformers (SSTs), Energy Storage System (ESS) could enable Delta to further transform itself from a power systems company into an infrastructure provider.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 8-9% to reflect better-than-expected gross margin performance and AI server contributions on rapid adoption of HVDC from Nvidia. We raise our 12M TP to TWD2,922 (from TWD2,440), based on a higher target PER of 55x (from 50x; above its past-3-year range of 11-50x) applied to our 1-year-forward EPS, due to new growth drivers from the micro grid. We believe a higher target PER is justified as the PEG ratio stands at 0.90x (vs. our 2025-28E earnings CAGR of 61%). Downside risk: weaker-than-expected demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 4-36% above Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more bullish HVDC adoption rate.

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.7 1.1 1.1
Net profit change 8.8 7.7 8.8
Core EPS (FD) change 8.8 7.7 8.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_001
12-month range 367.50-2,520.00
Market cap (USDbn) 200.67
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 687.49
Shares outstanding (m) 2,598
Major shareholder Hsiang Ta International (10.3%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 720,711 1,002,184 1,466,796
Operating profit (m) 135,098 215,592 342,138
Net profit (m) 101,656 158,647 251,013
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 39.136 61.076 96.635
EPS change (%) 69.1 56.1 58.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 4.3 11.0 36.2
PER (x) 61.8 39.6 25.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.7 1.2
DPS 11.6 18.0 28.5
PBR (x) 17.2 12.8 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 38.0 25.0 16.1
ROE (%) 32.1 36.9 42.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Delta Electronics: revenue and earnings forecasts - Daiwa vs. consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 708,431 720,711 738,386 991,348 1,002,184 925,551 1,451,122 1,466,796 1,330,714
Diff (%) 1.7% -2.4% 1.1% 8.3% 1.1% 10.2%
Gross Margin (%) 35.1% 36.7% 35.4% 35.5% 36.7% 36.2% 35.8% 37.4% 33.6%
Operating profit 123,261 135,098 132,517 200,985 215,592 194,537 315,952 342,138 252,415
Op Margin (%) 17.4% 18.7% 17.9% 20.3% 21.5% 21.0% 21.8% 23.3% 19.0%
Net profit 93,451 101,656 97,464 147,275 158,647 142,878 230,626 251,013 184,336
EPS (TWD) 35.98 39.14 37.52 56.70 61.08 55.01 88.79 96.63 70.97
Diff (%) 8.8% 4.3% 7.7% 11.0% 8.8% 36.2%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 159,353 174,456 185,997 200,905 203,352 232,380 266,734 299,718 554,885 720,711 1,002,184 1,466,796
COGS -100,392 -110,643 -117,658 -127,869 -128,957 -146,464 -167,943 -191,041 -364,729 -456,562 -634,405 -918,356
Gross profit 58,961 63,813 68,339 73,037 74,395 85,917 98,791 108,677 190,157 264,149 367,779 548,439
Operating expenses -30,544 -31,402 -32,549 -34,556 -34,570 -37,646 -39,210 -40,762 -106,224 -129,051 -152,187 -206,302
Operating profit 28,417 32,411 35,789 38,481 39,825 48,271 59,581 67,916 83,932 135,098 215,592 342,138
Non-operating profit 2,676 1,824 2,037 1,811 1,320 1,313 1,310 1,713 3,934 8,347 5,656 5,652
Pretax profit 31,093 34,235 37,826 40,292 41,145 49,584 60,891 69,629 87,866 143,445 221,249 347,790
Income taxes -7,258 -7,018 -7,754 -8,260 -8,846 -10,661 -13,092 -14,970 -19,930 -30,291 -47,568 -74,775
Net profit 20,556 24,600 27,282 29,219 29,248 35,438 43,798 50,163 60,108 101,656 158,647 251,013
Net EPS (TWD) 7.91 9.47 10.50 11.25 11.26 13.64 16.86 19.31 23.14 39.14 61.08 96.63
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 37.0% 36.6% 36.7% 36.4% 36.6% 37.0% 37.0% 36.3% 34.3% 36.7% 36.7% 37.4%
Operating margin 17.8% 18.6% 19.2% 19.2% 19.6% 20.8% 22.3% 22.7% 15.1% 18.7% 21.5% 23.3%
Pre-tax margin 19.5% 19.6% 20.3% 20.1% 20.2% 21.3% 22.8% 23.2% 15.8% 19.9% 22.1% 23.7%
Net margin 12.9% 14.1% 14.7% 14.5% 14.4% 15.2% 16.4% 16.7% 10.8% 14.1% 15.8% 17.1%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 34% 41% 24% 24% 28% 33% 43% 49% 32% 30% 39% 46%
Gross profit 56% 45% 30% 31% 26% 35% 45% 49% 39% 39% 39% 49%
Operating profit 102% 74% 44% 46% 40% 49% 66% 76% 76% 61% 60% 59%
Pretax profit 99% 75% 40% 57% 32% 45% 61% 73% 71% 63% 54% 57%
Net profit 101% 76% 47% 69% 42% 44% 61% 72% 71% 69% 56% 58%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue -1% 9% 7% 8% 1% 14% 15% 12%
Gross profit 5% 8% 7% 7% 2% 15% 15% 10%
Operating profit 8% 14% 10% 8% 3% 21% 23% 14%
Pretax profit 21% 10% 10% 7% 2% 21% 23% 14%
Net profit 19% 20% 11% 7% 0% 21% 24% 15%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: 1-year forward PER band

260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_002

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: operating margin by segment (quarterly)

260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_003

Source: Company

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Automation revenue growth (YoY) 18 19 (0) (3) 5 13 9 7
Infrastructure revenue growth (YoY) (8) 26 (4) 2 82 32 61 57
Power Electronics sales growth (YoY) 21 21 9 (10) 25 38 33 45

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Power Electronics 187,316 227,311 248,257 223,992 280,032 385,053 512,710 745,408
Automation 45,881 54,519 54,296 52,403 54,943 61,994 67,428 72,222
Other Revenue 81,474 102,613 98,674 144,752 219,911 273,664 422,046 649,166
Total Revenue 314,671 384,443 401,227 421,148 554,885 720,711 1,002,184 1,466,796
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (224,461) (273,671) (284,013) (284,567) (364,729) (456,562) (634,405) (918,356)
SG&A (31,642) (37,564) (40,215) (47,354) (57,482) (69,590) (76,575) (101,402)
Other op.expenses (27,202) (31,770) (36,048) (41,575) (48,743) (59,461) (75,612) (104,900)
Operating profit 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 135,098 215,592 342,138
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 134 38 899 1,859 1,501 1,600 1,576 1,572
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 4,128 4,588 6,793 1,804 2,433 6,747 4,080 4,080
Pre-tax profit 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 143,445 221,249 347,790
Tax (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (30,291) (47,568) (74,775)
Min. int./pref. div./others (1,703) (4,325) (5,488) (5,163) (7,828) (11,498) (15,033) (22,002)
Net profit (reported) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 101,656 158,647 251,013
Net profit (adjusted) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 101,656 158,647 251,013
EPS (reported)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 39.136 61.076 96.635
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 39.136 61.076 96.635
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 39.136 61.076 96.635
DPS (TWD) 5.500 5.500 9.840 6.430 7.000 11.600 18.000 28.500
EBIT 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 135,098 215,592 342,138
EBITDA 48,516 60,375 62,540 72,668 111,771 164,263 249,477 382,585

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 143,445 221,249 347,790
Depreciation and amortisation 17,151 18,936 21,590 25,016 27,839 29,164 33,884 40,448
Tax paid (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (30,291) (47,568) (74,775)
Change in working capital (20,506) (20,062) 2,466 (2,538) (24,348) (64,676) (88,045) (89,540)
Other operational CF items 3,175 10,665 8,151 10,025 27,047 (337) (80) (80)
Cash flow from operations 28,319 46,529 71,086 72,895 98,474 77,307 119,440 223,843
Capex (23,027) (21,824) (27,830) (33,485) (46,091) (42,522) (59,129) (86,541)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (1,953) (2,489) (5,421) (304) (2,702) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,501) (406) (251) (6,571) (4,420) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (26,481) (24,719) (33,502) (40,360) (53,214) (42,522) (59,129) (86,541)
Change in debt 6,993 (1,900) 10,327 7,135 11,729 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (15,751) (15,026) (27,455) (18,696) (20,313) (30,132) (46,756) (74,030)
Other financing CF items 421 (2,814) 6,651 444 (817) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (8,337) (19,739) (10,478) (11,118) (9,401) (30,132) (46,756) (74,030)
Forex effect/others (2,358) 9,621 (1,198) 8,586 (2,146) 0 0 0
Change in cash (8,857) 11,692 25,909 30,003 33,713 4,653 13,555 63,272
Free cash flow 5,292 24,705 43,257 39,410 52,383 34,785 60,311 137,302

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 51,268 63,572 92,620 121,793 155,113 159,766 173,321 236,594
Inventory 69,697 83,980 81,756 89,706 108,208 137,530 196,594 265,550
Accounts receivable 72,700 89,676 81,706 92,180 125,020 160,634 220,689 294,307
Other current assets 3,213 3,222 3,877 7,246 7,440 7,440 7,440 7,440
Total current assets 196,878 240,450 259,958 310,925 395,781 465,370 598,044 803,890
Fixed assets 76,607 86,267 98,002 115,710 142,040 155,397 180,642 226,735
Goodwill & intangibles 73,610 77,170 78,544 78,783 75,326 75,326 75,326 75,326
Other non-current assets 18,017 21,987 21,242 26,480 26,472 26,808 26,888 26,968
Total assets 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 722,902 880,901 1,132,920
Short-term debt 4,442 2,119 5,875 8,121 17,325 2,364 2,364 2,364
Accounts payable 54,570 62,716 53,539 69,223 94,452 94,712 125,786 178,820
Other current liabilities 49,157 60,179 66,671 74,939 97,888 97,888 97,888 97,888
Total current liabilities 108,169 125,013 126,085 152,283 209,665 194,964 226,039 279,072
Long-term debt 43,914 44,337 51,420 56,309 56,703 56,703 56,703 56,703
Other non-current liabilities 26,904 31,156 37,506 43,740 47,861 47,861 47,861 47,861
Total liabilities 178,988 200,507 215,011 252,332 314,230 299,529 330,603 383,637
Share capital 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975
Reserves/R.E./others 128,811 160,813 173,188 204,112 242,083 340,067 466,991 665,976
Shareholders' equity 154,787 186,789 199,164 230,087 268,058 366,042 492,966 691,952
Minority interests 31,338 38,578 43,572 49,478 57,331 57,331 57,331 57,331
Total equity & liabilities 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 722,902 880,901 1,132,920
EV 6,314,481 6,307,518 6,294,302 6,278,170 6,262,301 6,242,687 6,229,132 6,165,860
Net debt/(cash) (2,912) (17,115) (35,325) (57,363) (81,085) (100,699) (114,254) (177,526)
BVPS (TWD) 59.590 71.910 76.674 88.579 103.197 140.919 189.782 266.387

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 11.3 22.2 4.4 5.0 31.8 29.9 39.1 46.4
EBITDA (YoY) 2.6 24.4 3.6 16.2 53.8 47.0 51.9 53.4
Operating profit (YoY) (0.2) 32.1 (1.2) 16.4 76.1 61.0 59.6 58.7
Net profit (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 69.1 56.1 58.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 69.1 56.1 58.2
Gross-profit margin 28.7 28.8 29.2 32.4 34.3 36.7 36.7 37.4
EBITDA margin 15.4 15.7 15.6 17.3 20.1 22.8 24.9 26.1
Operating-profit margin 10.0 10.8 10.2 11.3 15.1 18.7 21.5 23.3
Net profit margin 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 10.8 14.1 15.8 17.1
ROAE 17.8 19.1 17.3 16.4 24.1 32.1 36.9 42.4
ROAA 7.6 8.3 7.6 7.1 10.3 14.9 19.8 24.9
ROCE 13.8 16.4 14.3 14.8 22.6 30.6 39.5 48.3
ROIC 14.6 17.0 15.7 17.5 27.8 37.6 44.6 53.3
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 20.0 19.7 20.1 21.3 22.7 21.1 21.5 21.5
Accounts receivable (days) 79.7 77.1 78.0 75.4 71.4 72.3 69.4 64.1
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.9
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 56.1 53.3 78.2 50.0 51.6 50.1 46.0 46.7
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 2.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1971, Delta Electronics has been the global leader in switching power supply solutions since 2002 and DC brushless fans since 2006. Its business covers 3 key areas: power electronics (eg, power supplies, thermal management products and passive components), automation (eg, controllers, robot arms and building management systems), and infrastructure (eg, datacentre infrastructure, networking and EV charging).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 1 Delta's board has 7 non-independent and 5 independent directors with a term of three years. The total number of directors and ratio of independent directors appear higher than most other listed companies. Besides, according to Delta's CSR report, enhancing the board's functions is one of the key goals for the company to achieve better corporate governance; also, the board members' diversity and professionalism will be taken into consideration to ensure a good board quality. Moreover, the company evaluates all the directors in the board using internal regulations and an external independent institution each year and at least once every three years, respectively. We believe Delta has implemented relatively more enhanced measure than most listed firms to improve its board quality.
G Capital management 2 During 2016-19, Delta's payout ratio was stable in the range of c.70%, but fell to 56% in 2020 and 53% in 2021. For 2020, it was mainly due to a sizeable non-cash re-valuation gain after the acquisition of Delta Thailand (DET), while the company maintained more cash on hand to deal with the uncertainties caused by COVID-19. However, the DPS growth from 2016 to 2021 was limited, as Delta struggled with business diversification into new end-markets (eg, smartphone, NEV). We believe that Delta's effort started to bear fruit in recent years after its NEV business has gradually picked up. Overall, we see a stable dividend policy from Delta and expect its DPS to continue to grow YoY in the future given that they declared a TWD11.6 DPS for 2025 which
Related party & transaction 1 equals a 50% payout ratio. Revenue from related parties stood at 4% of total 2024 revenue and purchases from related parties were at 9%. We see limited risk from related party transactions.
S Supply chain management 1 Delta focuses on: 1) localised management, 2) supplier certification and risk management, and 3) supplier sustainability engagement as key initiatives under the scope of supply chain management. In 2019, 144 new suppliers joined Delta's supply chain system. All of them passed environmental and social evaluations, signed the declaration of "non-use of conflict materials", and complied with Responsible Business Alliance's (BRA) Code of Conduct. Also, these vendors had to implement and abide by Delta's supply chain CSR policy and code of conduct. To lower ESG risks, Delta carries out RBA audits and monitors high-risk critical suppliers each year. The suppliers that fail these audits have to provide detailed improvement plans in response to identified issues. Besides, Delta has surveyed a total of 263 suppliers with potential risk and 63 suppliers with high risk of the total 1,331 suppliers, based on its CSR policy and code of conduct. If these suppliers are flagged as high-risk and no concrete improvements are made, Delta may consider terminating cooperation and transactions with them to improve the company's engagement on supplier sustainability. Overall, we think Delta has a solid plan to improve its supply chain management with specific KPIs, including: 1) achieving supplier improvement rate of 80% in 2025, 2) reducing GHG emissions rate of critical suppliers by 10% in 2025, and 3) improving water saving rate of critical suppliers by 12% in 2025.
S Data security 2 Delta's Information Security team created Delta's Information Security Policy in November 2013 and started providing educational training to global employees in 2014. Delta gradually introduced the Information Security Management System (ISMS) in 2016 and obtained the ISO 27001 international certification in 2018. According to ISO27001, Delta has to conduct at least one internal audit on information security and appoint an independent institution to conduct audit externally. According to Delta, no major deficiencies have been found in recent years.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 1 Jun 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Doosan Enerbility: share price and Daiwa recommendation trend

Date Target Price Rating Date Target price Rating Date Target price Rating
18/03/25 36,000 Buy 11/07/25 54,000 Underperform 12/02/26 115,000 Buy
20/06/25 53,000 Underperform 23/09/25 77,000 Buy
260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_004

Source: Daiwa

Note: where appropriate, historical target prices have been adjusted to reflect the current share count

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260601_2308_台達電_daiwa_Delta_003.png 37KB 真資料圖 分事業別 operating margin (quarterly) 折線圖(報告原文標題:Delta: operating margin by segment (quarterly)),橫軸 1Q23 至 1Q26,四條線分別為 Power Electronics(深藍)、Infrastructure(橘黃)、Automation(灰)、Mobility(虛線灰),Power Electronics 約 13-22%、Infrastructure 約 3-20%、Mobility 一度降至約 -10%