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260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech

更新 2026-06-01

PDF 原檔:260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech_original.pdf

原始內容

Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT)

Target price:

TWD6,770.00 (from TWD7,000.00)

Share price (29 May):

TWD3,545.00

|

Up/downside: +91.0%

Solid spec upgrade story on rising TDP trend

  • Bright 2Q26 outlook despite change in some specs
  • Intact ASP outlook for Rubin
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; trimming 12M TP to TWD6,770

What's new: We met with Jentech management today (29 May) for an update on its business and product development. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call (see our memo 1Q26 results roughly in line on 12 May 2026).

What's the impact: Better-than-feared 2Q26 revenue outlook. Despite some spec change on the Rubin project due to some assembly issues, there was no harm to the heat spreader spec upgrade trend in the mid-tolong term on rising TDP trend. We expect Jentech's revenue to rise MoM during the course of 2Q26 and thus forecast its 2Q26 revenue of TWD7.1bn (+34.3% QoQ), vs. the Bloomberg consensus of TWD6.3bn (+19.1% QoQ). We expect its gross margin to rise QoQ during the course of 2026, given rising revenue contribution from Rubin, Rubin Ultra and CPO. In 2028, we expect rising revenue contribution from ASICs.

Rubin heat spreader spec not confirmed yet. The spec is not confirmed yet, but we saw some rush orders recently for the one-piece lid, and thus expect a higher ASP outlook. We also expect to see higher ASP outlook for the next GPU generation, with either removeable dual lid or MCL.

Leading position in heat spreader segment; bright revenue outlook for lead frame and some progress for its socket and cold plates. We believe Jentech will maintain its leading position in the high-end heat spreader segment for the next GPU generation. The shorter GPU generation should raise the entry barrier for competitors. For its lead frame business, we forecast revenue to grow 30% YoY in 2026 due to share gains. For its socket business, Jentech is processing product approvals and we expect some progress for its socket and ILM. As the company is a cold plate vender for Rubin, this should strengthen Jentech's relationship with ODMs, bringing some revenue upside potential in 2H26 with more liquid cooling components, which would also help its MCL development.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call but trim our 12M TP to TWD6,770 (from TWD7,000), still based on a target PER of 73x (vs. its past-3-year PER range of 17-61x) applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast (3Q26-2Q27E). We believe our target valuation is fair, given Jentech's strong earnings visibility and leading position in chip-level thermal solutions, which we believe warrant a re-rating. Downside risks: weaker-than-expected global AI server demand; slower-than-expected thermal spec upgrades.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 8-17% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more aggressive in our revenue and grossmargin assumptions.

29 May 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Helen Chien

Helen Chien

(886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change - - -
Net profit change (1.5) 0.1 (0.3)
Core EPS (FD) change (2.5) (0.9) (1.3)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech_001
12-month range 1,300.00-5,445.00
Market cap (USDbn) 16.56
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 189.06
Shares outstanding (m) 147
Major shareholder Chao family (40.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 32,662 57,082 80,811
Operating profit (m) 12,281 24,317 36,365
Net profit (m) 9,969 19,601 29,252
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 67.877 133.459 199.169
EPS change (%) 87.8 96.6 49.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 16.8 7.5 9.7
PER (x) 52.2 26.6 17.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.2 2.3 3.4
DPS 40.8 80.2 119.6
PBR (x) 17.1 11.8 8.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.0 20.1 13.3
ROE (%) 37.4 52.6 55.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: revenue and earnings forecasts revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) New Previous Change New Previous Change New Previous Change
Revenue 32,662 32,662 0.0% 57,082 57,082 0.0% 80,811 80,811 0.0%
Gross profit 14,698 15,024 -2.2% 27,399 27,399 0.0% 40,406 40,406 0.0%
Gross margin 45.0% 46.0% -1pp 48.0% 48.0% 0pp 50.0% 50.0% 0pp
Operating profit 12,281 12,444 -1.3% 24,317 24,203 0.5% 36,365 36,365 0.0%
Operating margin 37.6% 38.1% -0.5pp 42.6% 42.4% 0.2pp 45.0% 45.0% 0pp
Net profit 9,969 10,123 -1.5% 19,601 19,574 0.1% 29,252 29,332 -0.3%
Net margin 30.5% 31.0% -0.5pp 34.3% 34.3% 0pp 36.2% 36.3% -0.1pp
Fully Diluted EPS (TWD) 67.88 69.61 -2.5% 133.46 134.60 -0.9% 199.17 201.71 -1.3%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: quarterly and annual P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 5,305 7,123 8,945 11,289 10,410 12,156 15,253 19,263 32,662 57,082 80,811
Gross profit 2,217 3,205 4,070 5,206 4,685 5,592 7,321 9,802 14,698 27,399 40,406
Operating profit 1,697 2,621 3,444 4,519 3,987 4,875 6,543 8,912 12,281 24,317 36,365
Pre-tax profit 1,776 2,651 3,473 4,549 4,017 4,905 6,573 8,942 12,448 24,437 36,465
Net profit 1,398 2,121 2,782 3,669 3,219 3,932 5,273 7,177 9,969 19,601 29,252
Basic EPS (TWD) 9.53 14.45 18.96 25.00 21.94 26.80 35.94 48.92 67.95 133.60 199.38
Margin
Gross margin 41.8% 45.0% 45.5% 46.1% 45.0% 46.0% 48.0% 50.9% 45.0% 48.0% 50.0%
Operating margin 32.0% 36.8% 38.5% 40.0% 38.3% 40.1% 42.9% 46.3% 37.6% 42.6% 45.0%
Pre-tax margin 33.5% 37.2% 38.8% 40.3% 38.6% 40.3% 43.1% 46.4% 38.1% 42.8% 45.1%
Net margin 26.4% 29.8% 31.1% 32.5% 30.9% 32.3% 34.6% 37.3% 30.5% 34.3% 36.2%
YoY
Revenue 11.6% 37.5% 76.4% 114.1% 96.2% 70.7% 70.5% 70.6% 61.1% 74.8% 41.6%
Gross profit 3.8% 49.1% 106.0% 139.4% 111.3% 74.4% 79.9% 88.3% 74.3% 86.4% 47.5%
Operating profit 1.8% 54.2% 132.0% 174.2% 135.0% 86.0% 90.0% 97.2% 89.0% 98.0% 49.5%
Pre-tax profit 2.0% 99.8% 101.6% 150.4% 126.2% 85.0% 89.3% 96.6% 88.4% 96.3% 49.2%
Net profit 2.0% 89.1% 105.1% 156.7% 130.2% 85.4% 89.6% 95.6% 88.9% 96.6% 49.2%
QoQ
Revenue 0.6% 34.3% 25.6% 26.2% -7.8% 16.8% 25.5% 26.3%
Gross profit 1.9% 44.6% 27.0% 27.9% -10.0% 19.4% 30.9% 33.9%
Operating profit 2.9% 54.5% 31.4% 31.2% -11.8% 22.3% 34.2% 36.2%
Pre-tax profit -2.3% 49.3% 31.0% 31.0% -11.7% 22.1% 34.0% 36.0%
Net profit -2.2% 51.7% 31.2% 31.9% -12.3% 22.2% 34.1% 36.1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: product mix

260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech_002

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT): 29 May 2026

Jentech: 1-year forward PER

260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech_003

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader revenue growth (%) 10.4 73.8 21.2 25.7 58.2 75.1 88.1 46.4
Lead frame revenue growth (%) 51 2.3 (13.1) (5.8) (4.1) 30.6 26.6 0
Electronic Components revenue growth (%) 41.4 4.7 (43.5) 3.5 15.9 25 21.6 21.6

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader 3,533 6,139 7,444 9,358 14,804 25,923 48,767 71,370
Lead frame 2,326 2,380 2,068 1,948 1,868 2,439 3,088 3,088
Other Revenue 2,942 3,513 2,551 2,972 3,604 4,300 5,226 6,352
Total Revenue 8,801 12,032 12,063 14,278 20,276 32,662 57,082 80,811
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (6,043) (7,706) (8,020) (8,913) (11,842) (17,964) (29,682) (40,406)
SG&A (658) (838) (838) (969) (1,196) (1,437) (1,941) (2,424)
Other op.expenses (390) (454) (527) (598) (740) (980) (1,142) (1,616)
Operating profit 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,281 24,317 36,365
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (25) (16) 83 83 54 83 70 50
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (93) 351 25 364 54 85 50 50
Pre-tax profit 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,448 24,437 36,465
Tax (354) (712) (534) (830) (1,297) (2,443) (4,796) (7,156)
Min. int./pref. div./others (42) (42) 46 13 (33) (36) (40) (57)
Net profit (reported) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 9,969 19,601 29,252
Net profit (adjusted) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 9,969 19,601 29,252
EPS (reported)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 67.948 133.599 199.378
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 67.948 133.599 199.378
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.407 18.643 16.280 24.074 36.140 67.877 133.459 199.169
DPS (TWD) 6.000 11.660 9.850 14.500 22.000 40.769 80.159 119.627
EBIT 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,281 24,317 36,365
EBITDA 2,047 3,855 3,238 4,759 7,201 13,069 25,093 37,225

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,448 24,437 36,465
Depreciation and amortisation 430 469 536 597 648 703 726 810
Tax paid (230) (313) (848) (563) (887) (2,443) (4,796) (7,156)
Change in working capital (952) (840) 662 (1,211) (1,348) (4,606) (8,307) (8,437)
Other operational CF items 65 110 (78) (177) (246) (83) (70) (50)
Cash flow from operations 905 2,795 3,057 2,891 4,774 6,020 11,991 21,632
Capex (684) (805) (453) (613) (1,173) (1,200) (1,200) (1,500)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (653) (21) 270 179 146 131 131 131
Other investing CF items (15) (279) (103) (2,129) 13 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,352) (1,105) (287) (2,563) (1,014) (1,069) (1,069) (1,369)
Change in debt 770 (246) (222) (744) 5,197 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (733) (785) (1,662) (1,436) (2,072) (3,187) (5,981) (11,761)
Other financing CF items (14) (19) (33) (35) (48) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 22 (1,050) (1,917) (2,215) 3,077 (3,187) (5,981) (11,761)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (425) 640 853 (1,887) 6,837 1,763 4,940 8,502
Free cash flow 221 1,897 2,597 2,371 3,791 4,820 10,791 20,132

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT): 29 May 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 2,648 3,317 4,156 2,267 9,134 10,897 15,837 24,339
Inventory 3,359 3,596 2,481 3,062 3,810 6,013 9,573 13,152
Accounts receivable 2,373 2,730 2,713 4,115 5,538 9,005 15,489 22,104
Other current assets 70 43 62 51 85 85 85 85
Total current assets 8,450 9,686 9,411 9,495 18,567 26,000 40,984 59,680
Fixed assets 4,436 4,675 4,833 4,852 8,073 8,570 9,044 9,733
Goodwill & intangibles 12 10 13 12 14 14 14 14
Other non-current assets 623 1,407 1,588 4,104 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315
Total assets 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,899 51,357 70,742
Short-term debt 773 1,743 397 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1,882 2,176 2,052 2,790 3,521 4,641 6,433 8,245
Other current liabilities 224 619 335 630 932 99 99 99
Total current liabilities 2,878 4,537 2,785 3,420 4,453 4,740 6,532 8,344
Long-term debt 437 432 348 5 5 5 5 5
Other non-current liabilities 2,194 350 375 379 445 445 445 445
Total liabilities 5,509 5,319 3,507 3,804 4,904 5,190 6,983 8,795
Share capital 1,223 1,368 1,408 1,429 1,467 1,467 1,467 1,467
Reserves/R.E./others 5,854 8,152 10,070 13,037 21,370 28,978 42,603 60,120
Shareholders' equity 7,078 9,520 11,478 14,466 22,837 30,445 44,070 61,587
Minority interests 934 938 860 192 227 264 304 361
Total equity & liabilities 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,899 51,357 70,742
EV 519,602 519,902 517,556 518,036 511,205 509,478 504,578 496,133
Net debt/(cash) (1,438) (1,143) (3,411) (2,262) (9,129) (10,892) (15,832) (24,334)
BVPS (TWD) 58.480 71.142 82.877 101.919 159.052 207.512 300.379 419.771

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 28.6 36.7 0.3 18.4 42.0 61.1 74.8 41.6
EBITDA (YoY) 30.6 88.3 (16.0) 47.0 51.3 81.5 92.0 48.4
Operating profit (YoY) 52.8 77.4 (11.8) 41.9 71.1 89.0 98.0 49.5
Net profit (YoY) 19.6 118.6 (12.1) 49.2 54.0 88.9 96.6 49.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 14.3 98.2 (12.7) 47.9 50.1 87.8 96.6 49.2
Gross-profit margin 31.3 36.0 33.5 37.6 41.6 45.0 48.0 50.0
EBITDA margin 23.3 32.0 26.8 33.3 35.5 40.0 44.0 46.1
Operating-profit margin 19.4 25.2 22.2 26.6 32.0 37.6 42.6 45.0
Net profit margin 13.6 21.7 19.1 24.0 26.0 30.5 34.3 36.2
ROAE 17.7 31.5 21.9 26.4 28.3 37.4 52.6 55.4
ROAA 9.6 17.8 14.5 20.0 22.7 31.2 44.9 47.9
ROCE 20.1 27.8 20.8 27.4 34.4 45.7 64.8 68.4
ROIC 23.6 30.1 23.7 28.7 39.7 58.5 80.8 88.4
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 22.2 21.1 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6
Accounts receivable (days) 87.2 77.4 82.4 87.3 86.9 81.3 78.3 84.9
Current ratio (x) 2.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 4.2 5.5 6.3 7.2
Net interest cover (x) 67.9 183.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 60.7 59.7 59.4 60.0 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0
Free cash flow yield 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.1 3.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in 1987, Jentech Precision Industrial is a leading global thermal-solutions and precisionmetal components maker that serves leading semiconductor and server vendors. As of 2025, its revenue comprised thermal heat spreaders (73%), lead frames (9%), electronic components (7%), communication connectors (1%) and others (10%).

Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT): 29 May 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 1 The CEO and chairperson of Jentech is the same individual, Mr. Zhao Zongxin. We note that Mr. Zhao has extensive long-term experience in senior management within the company and across its subsidiaries, which is a positive sign from an executive perspective.
G Capital management 1 Between 2021-25, Jentech has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 60%, which we consider reasonable for balancing shareholder returns with reinvestment needs. This consistent approach reflects prudent capital management discipline and a stable financial policy.
Related party & transaction 1 The company engages in transactions with subsidiaries primarily for normal operational purposes, such as purchase of materials and components. The proportion of these costs to overall COGS remains low, and no irregular or non-transparent transactions were identified.
E Supply chain management 1 Jentech has a structured procurement process, including supplier evaluation, signature of procurement contracts, and requirements for compliance with environmental and safety regulations. The company also diversifies sourcing channels (major suppliers from Taiwan, Japan, Europe, Korea, USA) and maintains stable supply relationships, with clear communication protocols for prompt response to supplier issues. This reflects strong supply chain transparency and robust quality control measures.
E Data security 1 The company has established an information security team, conducts annual internal control audits, and implements procedures such as asset inventory, network security monitoring, virus prevention systems, firewall management, and access rights control. Backup systems and disaster recovery mechanisms are in place, allowing the company to restore information system operations and minimize damage during major incidents or equipment failures.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 May 2026 Source: Daiwa, Company

Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT): 29 May 2026

Daiwa

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260529_3653_健策_daiwa_Jentech_002.png 48KB 真資料圖 產品組合占比堆疊長條圖,橫軸 2020 至 2028E,圖例 Thermal heat spreader(深藍)/Lead frame(灰)/Electronic Components(淺藍)/Communication connectors(灰)/Others(淺灰),Thermal heat spreader 占比標示由 47%(2020)逐年升至 88%(2028E)