PDF 原檔：260521_6278_台表科_daiwa_TSMT_original.pdf
原始內容
Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology (6278 TT)
Target price:
n.a.
Share price (21 May): TWD223.00 |
Up/downside: -
Positive tone from management
- TSMT expects stronger YoY revenue growth for 2027 vs 2026
- Several new drivers to underpin revenue outlook over 2026-27
- AI-related revenue to reach 15-20% of 2027 revenue vs 1-2% for 2026
Background: We met with Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology (TSMT)'s management on 21 May (see our 13 May flash ). Per management, its product mix for 2025 was: TFT-LCD 46%, Mini LED 11%, DRAM module 16%, auto 9%, cable 9%, touch 5%, and others 4%. Management guides for the mix for 2026 to be: TFT-LCD 46%, Mini LED 11%, DRAM module 17%, auto 8%, cable 6%, touch 5%, and others 7%. The QFII holding of TSMT was 18.2% on 20 May vs 19.8% at the end of 2025.
Highlights: 2026-27 guidance. TSMT guides for YoY revenue growth of 510% (close to the high end; +1.9% YoY revenue growth for 4M26) for 2026 and a double-digit % YoY growth for 2027, thanks to the multiple revenue drivers from AI-related demand. For 2026, the company expects gross margin of 13-15% (up QoQ; vs 12.8% gross margin in 2025), with further YoY growth in 2027 on a more favourable product mix. Its AI-related revenue target is 15-20% for 2027, up from 5-6% in 4Q26 and 1-2% in 2026. For 2026, the company expects 2H26 revenue to be higher than that in 1H26, thanks to the rising order outlook from DRAM modules and AIrelated revenue supported by its capacity ramping up from its Mexico, India, and Vietnam plants.
Multiple revenue drivers to kick off from 2H26. TSMT mentioned several revenue drivers as follows: 1) Optical transceiver assembly. TSMT will be the major supplier of 800G and 1.6T products to its US-based client, and the company has seen some outsourcing demand from China-based clients, with 4-5% of combined revenue contribution in 4Q26 . 2) DRAM module. TSMT expects the revenue contribution to rise to 20-25% in 2H26, up from 18% in 2Q26, and to grow YoY in 2027 considering its US- and China-based clients. 3) Low earth orbit (LEO). TSMT will start delivering SMT products in 2H26 for a US-based client. 4) Humanoid robots. The company sees business opportunity (sensor modules and PCBA) from the US-based client with revenue contribution from 2027, likely to reach a low single-digit % of 2027 revenue. 5) Battery backup unit (BBU). The company will trial run products in 4Q26 or 2027. 6) Server SMT. Currently, TSMT has two clients and plans to add a new one in 2H26 from Taiwan or the US. Thus, the company guides for capex of USD100-150m over 202627, up from USD100m in 2025, subject to its capacity expansion plan in Mexico, as it expects capacity constraints for SMT in the next 1-2 years due to the increasing use of AI applications. The company also plans to expand its production capacity in China, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico.
Valuation: The stock is currently trading at PERs of 21.4x and 17.4x based on the Bloomberg consensus' 2026E and 2027E EPS, respectively.
Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254
helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Neil Teng (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Share price performance
| 12-month range | 91.40-226.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap (USDbn) | 2.06 |
| 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) | 49.56 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
TSMT: financial summary
| 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2026 | 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (TWDm) | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2024 | 2025 | 3M26 |
| Net sales | 10,929 | 11,502 | 11,009 | 11,848 | 12,414 | 12,588 | 12,788 | 12,087 | 12,555 | 45,288 | 49,877 | 12,555 |
| Gross profit | 1,294 | 1,601 | 1,424 | 1,733 | 1,658 | 1,528 | 1,621 | 1,579 | 1,419 | 6,052 | 6,386 | 1,419 |
| Operating profit | 608 | 794 | 646 | 961 | 939 | 840 | 943 | 782 | 724 | 3,009 | 3,505 | 724 |
| Pre-tax profit | 897 | 1,012 | 678 | 1,028 | 1,042 | 597 | 919 | 953 | 799 | 3,614 | 3,512 | 799 |
| Net profit | 681 | 859 | 662 | 704 | 842 | 480 | 696 | 728 | 627 | 2,906 | 2,746 | 627 |
| EPS (TWD) | 2.33 | 2.94 | 2.27 | 2.41 | 2.88 | 1.64 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.17 | 9.94 | 9.39 | 2.17 |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 11.8% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.3% |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| Pre-tax margin | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| Net margin | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| YoY (%) | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 16.1% | -5.6% | -13.6% | -2.5% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | -2.6% | 10.1% | |
| Gross profit | 46.1% | 16.0% | -14.6% | 29.1% | 28.1% | -4.5% | 13.8% | -8.9% | -14.4% | 14.7% | 5.5% | |
| Operating profit | 136.3% | 16.4% | -32.7% | 63.1% | 54.5% | 5.7% | 45.9% | -18.6% | -22.9% | 20.9% | 16.5% | |
| Pre-tax profit | 192.4% | 20.3% | -43.3% | 38.3% | 16.2% | -41.0% | 35.5% | -7.2% | -23.3% | 17.1% | -2.8% | |
| Net profit | 139.3% | 35.9% | -27.5% | 3.9% | 23.6% | -44.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | -25.5% | 15.9% | -5.5% | |
| QoQ (%) | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | -10.1% | 5.2% | -4.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | -5.5% | 3.9% | |||
| Gross profit | -3.6% | 23.7% | -11.0% | 21.7% | -4.3% | -7.8% | 6.1% | -2.6% | -10.1% | |||
| Operating profit | 3.1% | 30.7% | -18.7% | 48.7% | -2.3% | -10.6% | 12.3% | -17.0% | -7.5% | |||
| Pre-tax profit | 20.6% | 12.8% | -33.0% | 51.6% | 1.4% | -42.7% | 53.8% | 3.8% | -16.2% | |||
| Net profit | 0.6% | 26.1% | -22.9% | 6.2% | 19.6% | -43.0% | 45.0% | 4.7% | -13.9% |
Source: Company
TSMT: EMS business model for SMT outsourcing
Source: Company
TSMT: monthly revenue
Source: Company
TSMT: QFII holding %
Source: Company
TSMT: 1-year forward PER
Source: Bloomberg
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）
回補驗證：僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片，非全量驗證。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260521_6278_台表科_daiwa_TSMT_002.png |
160434 bytes | 真資料圖 | 「Advantages of SMT Outsourcing」流程示意圖，說明Turnkey/Consignment委外模式、SMT Process實拍照片、Finished Products(LCD Control Board)實拍照片、Consumer Products(筆電/手機/平板)圖示 |
260521_6278_台表科_daiwa_TSMT_003.png |
52313 bytes | 真資料圖 | 長條圖+折線圖，Monthly sales(LHS, TWDm)藍色長條、YoY(RHS, %)黃線，橫軸Apr-19至Apr-26 |