video_OCP2026_SourcePhotonics_可插拔NPO開場_20261015

Hi everyone. Good. So, Hi. We're going to be starting. So, the first one to speak is Frank. One of my co-organizer, Frank is going to introduce the session. And is also going to give a few idea of where Source Photonics is the the market going. So, Frank. >> Thank you. Okay. Thank Eric. I think on behalf of I I pack and also on behalf of co-organizers from Eric and Jenway. So, welcome everyone for the afternoon session. So, this session is IP and IPAC workshop. So, we we focus on the MPO. So, the title is revolutionize the AI scale up with the pluggable MPO. So, I think it's this is the same session compared with we did the last last year. So, I think it's really appreciate every everyone spend time here. So, first of all, I want to introduce the IPAC because they sponsored this event. So, IPAC is is registered in Europe. So, it's a organization industry forum. So, we focus on open and unified equality and innovation for to making the open public standards for um for [clears throat] the industry. So, currently we have over 55 over 55 members. So, this is a significantly represent from system companies, also the carrier operators [clears throat] and also including the the components company and the module companies. It's a pretty significantly portion of the industry. So, let's go to the Let's go to the the topic regarding the MPO we are working on. So, I I think it's for last several years, right? Since ChatGPT started in November, I think November 20 2022. So, there's a lot of money spent from the the AI and AI build data center build out. You can see, right? I think this year 2026 from the top four hyperscalers were trying probably 760 billion dollars, right? That probably will 10x after 5 years. So, probably 20 31, right? That would be 7.6 trillion dollars. This is a significant amount of money spent for build the AI data centers. And if you check where the money goes, right? So, you see from the the semiconductors including GPUs and GPUs probably is less than that 50% of them. Half of the money goes to the semiconductor. Beyond that, the networking side. You can see, right? Optical transceiver probably like 5 6%. And also switches and cabling, right? So, that is pretty much the what we're talking about the networking today. And eventually, I think it's people also think, right? Land, the facilities, right? Not like previous we think it's so much portion of the of the investment. So, I think it's we focus on networking. On this session, we'll focus on the the optics. One thing I want to mention here, right? The industry has changed. How much change from the um from 2022. So, after the the ChatGPT 3.5 comes, first reach the 100 million, right? 100 million people to subscribe that. So, I think it's the the semiconductor is already goes almost 10x, right? From two two two trillion to to about almost 2020 now, right? So, this is a little bit of a probably 2 to 3 months before that. So, one thing I want to mention for the for the optic market, I think we lot of probably put more detailed data is right now. Like for example, starting from November 2022, I think the market is mostly focused on telecom, right? Barely about 8 billion or 10 billion markets. Right now, we are talking about close to 50 billion markets. And the And the likely probably in 2030 or 2031, we're reaching another double, probably 100 billions, right? So, this is significant significant market for the optics. If you go beyond the the the optical markets, right? So, you probably will see for for example, either data com optics or either telecom optics. So, we are we see significantly, right? From November 2022 to to to the 2026, right? The significant is increase the the market values. And then you can see there's optical transceiver sector of the of the of the markets, right? Showing for example, the key to resolve the key interconnect bottleneck. So, I think pretty much I think it's a 4x growth for every two for every two years. And the most importantly, right? The pluggables optical transceiver starting to get into the scale up area. So, this is the this is a topic the focus we want to talk today. One thing I want to mention, right? So, for the for the markets we're seeing here. So, we talk a lot from all the optical conference, right? This from the the for the AI, right? That four main three major So far, three major markets, right? Scale out, scale in, and the scale across. So, scale across primarily that is a that we talked about the last last of OCP, right? So, it's mostly for the current light current, right? For data center to data centers. The the scale out is right now is most like short range like 500 m 2 km. So, that is pure optical, right? Scale out scale cross pure optical scale up right now dictated by by copper right now. But I know some some people starting to see, right? How we want to move optics into the scale into the scale up. One thing I want to mention the market size. For example, if you talk about um uh scale out is one is 1x 100% and you probably you see, right? So, the scale the [clears throat] scale cross 10% of the market, but you think about the the scale out um compare with scale up, right? So, scale up probably is 10x more than that. Somebody say like 5x or 8x, but we are close 100 10x now. So, the big big um bottleneck focus on the on the scale up. Probably that's what you see, right? So, many companies working on different um slow and wide, right? Fast narrow a lot of approaches, right? To driving the scale up market. One thing I want to mention here, so exactly recently after the um after the OFC, right? There's new market to call the scale in. So, scale in basically drive addressing the CPU to uh to end to DPU or TPU kind of kind of connections. Because most like wire short, right? So, like uh for the PCIE or CX um and also the your your link kind of a category, right? This is right now pure is pure copper. But the one thing also for scale up between the GPU TPU kind of interconnects, they still focus on on copper, but we see because when the um when the battery goes higher, there's not enough space to showing uh there's not enough distance also, right? To showing for the uh for the copper to go go go go longer. So, that's why the optical starting to jump in. So, if you talk about the market size, if suppose, right? The scale up is 10% or even 20% of the market go to optical, so that will be equivalent to the the total whole market right now. So, that's that's why we can say in right uh sorry. Uh which way? Uh sorry. I'm I'm too fast. How can I How can I get come out so far that I was still I still not finished yet. So >> [laughter] >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. >> Okay. >> But this don't want to work right now, right? >> You have to push this one, but it means you're out now. >> I'm out of the Yeah, I'm sorry. So >> Here? >> Yeah, go here. Yeah. >> This one? >> Yeah, want to go here. >> Here? >> Okay. Yeah, it goes to goes to Which one? I'm sorry. >> Here, up and down. >> Oh, this one. This one. So, I think it's this is the page we stop, okay? I'm sorry. Okay. Um one thing I want to mention here, right? We just the market size there. So, suppose the scale the 10% or 20% of the scale up market goes to optical, that's probably equivalent to the current the whole market. So, we probably see the another double the optical the optical market cap time, right? So, that's that's the importance why a lot of people trying to to handle the scale up issues. Uh another thing I want to mention that So, the historically, right? When we do the 10G or 100G, right? At that time, you probably remember if you work in this industry a little bit longer, you probably know, right? There's a lot of different form factor at that time. So, you we talk about like CFP CFP2 CFP4 CFP4 CFP8, right? And the CDFP, so there's so many solutions at the at that time. So, 10 10 years later, so after we studying from 100G CR4 28, and also the 400G CR8, and also the 800G OSFP QDD. So, after that, we go to another another time period, right? So, we don't know what to do next for next generation, right? So, there's so many solutions. And you probably remember even today, I think it's Nvidia and the Cisco announced the USIP, right? So, that's another way to showing that the industry is is kind of in the crossroad, but not know what exactly So, the next solution will converge. Are we have to converge one solution or we have to multi solutions is coexist, right? Those Those Those kind of questions is probably starting from OFC ECOC ECOC to ESCO, right? So, that's kind of similar situation we we are facing. Okay, so one thing I want to mention that for all the solutions here. So, for example, the CPU solution in video starting to shipping, and also the NPOs that's starting for example, starting some hyperscale CD permit they promise they will start to um to upgrade that their pluggable networks to the NPO. And also you see the ACTPO, right? So, ACTPO launched it at OFC this year, got a lot of wonders attention. So, that probably will be the pluggable for next pluggable for the for next road map. And then of course, we have the the USIP there. So, for the road map wise, for scale up, we talk about for example, the CPX, right? That's a MSA there, and also the the [clears throat] ACTPO there, right? So, that's kind of a road map we're talking. So, I think today, right? we have a long list of distinguished speakers will address this area. So, that pretty much we have the the whole the whole the >> [clears throat] >> how how do they hold speakers here on the schedules? Probably we will have like 10-15 minutes for each each speakers and then we move to next one if you in case you have a questions. So, maybe we can you can probably ask in between. So, maybe I think let's move on to the second speaker. So, since we are a little bit short on schedule, Subu Subu work for the Capital Group from investment side. So, when you Subu to to talk to.