報告_MS_力積電6770_20260519
PDF 原檔：報告_MS_力積電6770_20260519_original.pdf
原始內容
M May 18, 2026 11:48 PM GMT
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co | Asia Pacific
Beneficiary of mature node upcycle and EMIB supply chain
| What’s Changed Powerchip Semiconductor | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$71.00 | NT$88.00 |
We raise our price target from NT88. EPS estimates are down 46% for 2026 but up 71% for 2027. PSMC is set to benefit from a mature node shortage in 2H27, AP Memory’s emerging revenue streams from the EMIB supply chain, and continued price hikes and utilization rate improvements.
Mature node up-cycle begins : In The Foundry Floorplan: All boats riding on the same tide - mature node up-cycle begins, we highlighted that we expect a mature node capacity shortage in 2H27, arising from fast growth of AI power ICs as a key part of future AI infrastructure. AI power ICs should more than offset weak consumer and smartphone semi demand. AI infrastructure build-outs are likely to last another two years, so some smartphone and PC customers are now worrying about future mature node shortages. We have therefore raised our ratings and/or valuations of multiple mature node foundries.
A beneficiary as AP Memory’s foundry partner in S-SiCap production: We estimate that this will make up 3% of PSMC’s total revenue in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 9% in 2028. In Old Memory - Reaffirming Asymmetric Risks, we discussed how AP Memory’s S-SiCap business may benefit from: 1) penetration of the EMIB supply chain by supplying IPDs (integrated passive devices) to Humufish TPUs in 2027/28; 2) high growth of AI GPU shipments for China. See Exhibit 1 .
Memory price hikes continue: For the traditional memory foundry business, PSMC continues to engage in monthly price negotiations with customers; we expect memory foundry price hikes to continue. See also Shawn Kim’s report, Agentic AI The Surge Begins: we have expanded our memory TAM forecast to reflect agentic AI demand, reflecting our continued bullish view on the broader memory market.
EPS estimates down 46% for 2026 but up 71% for 2027: We introduce our 2028 forecasts. See PSMC: Earnings Estimate Revisions .
Raise price target from NT88; remain OW: We now apply a target 2026e P/B of 2.1x, on BVPS of NT50.9 BVPS). We estimate the revenue mix in 2027 between memory, analog, ad logic to be ~48%/30%/22%. If we attribute 52% of the 2027e BVPS to the analog and logic businesses and assume a 3.2x P/B ratio for them (vs. 2027e P/B of 3.3x for UMC and 3.7x for VIS), it would contribute NT$85 of our price target, - implying an almost free valuation for the memory business.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW, 6770 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight | Overweight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive | |||
| Price target | NT$88.00 | |||
| Up/downside to price target | (%) | 40 | ||
| Shr price, close (May 15, | 2026) | NT$62.80 | ||
| 52-Week Range | NT$78.90-14.50 | |||
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 4,188 | |||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$263,001 | |||
| EV, curr (mn) | ||||
| NT$250,225 | NT$250,225 | |||
| Avg daily trading value | (mn) | NT$5,961 | NT$5,961 | |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | (1.87) | 4.64 | 3.78 | 4.43 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | (1.64) | 8.61 | 2.21 | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | (1.89) | 5.94 | 3.86 | - |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 46,730 | 73,014 | 89,835 | 91,960 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | (309) | 13,009 | 27,573 | 29,481 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | (11,444) | 4,364 | 16,395 | 19,420 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | NM | 64.0 | 17.8 | 15.1 |
| P/BV | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| RNOA (%) | (8.7) | 5.9 | 39.8 | 53.3 |
| ROE (%) | (12.9) | 5.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | NM | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 4.7 | 36.4 | 17.1 | 17.6 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (15.6) | (80.7) | (85.8) | (89.0) |
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