PDF 原檔:260822_3665_貿聯_ubs_bizlink_original.pdf
圖片清單(已驗證 2026-08-24)
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260822_3665_貿聯_ubs_bizlink_001.png |
92KB | 真資料圖 | UBS 目標價與股價歷史圖(2023-06~2026-08):目標價階梯線最終升至約 3,430-3,617,股價 2026 年 4 月觸及約 2,900 後回落至約 2,200-2,300;下方評等條顯示 2024-10 起為 Buy、之前為 No Rating |
原始內容
First Read
BizLink Holding
Q226 margin largely in line; we expect robust H226 growth
Q: How did the results compare vs expectations?
A: BizLink's Q226 operating profit rose 29% QoQ, 6%/2% above the UBS/consensus estimates, on a gross margin recovery. Net profit rose 31% QoQ, 6%/1% above the UBS/consensus estimates, on a lower effective tax rate.
Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?
A: Q226 sales increased 12% QoQ, primarily supported by growth in electrical appliances (EA) (+56% QoQ), industrial (+13% QoQ) and automotive (+12% QoQ). The EA increase was largely attributable to a sales contribution from PAS, a newly acquired subsidiary that began to be consolidated into the financial statements in May 2026. Industrial sales benefited from continued momentum in SPE (+28% QoQ), as the boxbuild business continued to strengthen. IT and datacom sales rose only 2% QoQ, as shipments were slow due to a product transition during April-May. BizLink's monthly sales picked up strongly in June-July. We view this as evidence of HPC product shipments returning to a normal pattern. Gross margin expanded 2.0ppt QoQ, above the UBS estimate. That was mainly supported by higher utilization, effective material cost management and production efficiency improvement. However, it was partially offset by a higher-than-expected opex/sales ratio, as scale benefits were less than we expected.
Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed?
A: BizLink did not provide quantitative guidance, while remaining constructive on sustained order growth driven by the AI investment cycle, even though data center deployment is not linear. BizLink indicated it is selective in capacity expansion, with two major criteria: customer-backed demand and decent ROI. XFS has expanded capacity in fiber assembly to support robust growth despite still accounting for a small part of the sales mix. The Interplex deal is scheduled to be completed before year-end 2026 (schedule unchanged). Aside from HPC, management is positive about capital equipment (box-building services for semi equipment customers) and automation.
How would we expect investors to react?
A: We think the results/earnings call is a neutral event. We expect sustained strong earnings growth of 28% QoQ in Q326 to serve as a positive share price catalyst, supported by data cable shipments returning to a normal pattern, cable shipments for a new ASIC platform and a gross margin recovery, as utilization keeps increasing. There may be upside from power cables, as power sidecars could be adopted earlier. We raise our 2026-28E earnings 5-7% to 44%/83%/22% growth, mainly to factor in UBS latest view on rack shipments and ASIC shipments volumes, along with higher opex/sales. We raise our PT from NT$3,430 to NT$3,617 (same 30x 2027E PE). We remain at Buy.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 51,052 | 54,080 | 71,247 | 99,690 | 147,649 | 172,047 | 186,224 | 203,345 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 4,237 | 6,566 | 12,458 | 17,413 | 31,546 | 38,232 | 43,346 | 47,493 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 2,317 | 4,396 | 9,005 | 12,932 | 23,655 | 28,787 | 32,853 | 36,280 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 13.78 | 23.59 | 46.33 | 66.10 | 120.56 | 146.58 | 167.20 | 184.58 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 10.10 | 8.83 | 10.51 | 15.00 | 39.76 | 72.74 | 88.52 | 101.02 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 832 | 690 | 5,601 | 7,798 | 11,048 | 18,943 | 30,399 | 42,027 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 8.3 | 12.1 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 23.3 | 23.4 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 13.3 | 19.1 | 29.1 | 32.7 | 49.7 | 52.3 | 55.2 | 57.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 8.7 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 21.6 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 8.1 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 19.7 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 34.4 | 18.9 | 15.5 | 13.6 | 12.3 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 10.3 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 2,275.00 on 21-Aug-2026
| Equities | Equities | Equities | Equities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | Taiwan | Taiwan | Taiwan |
| Industrial, Diversified | Industrial, Diversified | Industrial, Diversified | Industrial, Diversified |
| 12-month rating | 12-month rating | 12-month rating | Buy |
| 12m price target | 12m price target | 12m price target | NT$3,617.00 Prior : NT$3,430 |
| Price (21 Aug 2026) | Price (21 Aug 2026) | Price (21 Aug 2026) | NT$2,275 |
| RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT | RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT | RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT | RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT |
| Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics |
| 52-wk range | 52-wk range | 52-wk range | NT$2,940.00-929.00 |
| Market cap. | Market cap. | Market cap. | NT$444b/US$13.9b |
| Shares o/s | Shares o/s | Shares o/s | 195m (ORD) |
| Free float | Free float | Free float | 88% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | Avg. daily volume ('000) | Avg. daily volume ('000) | 3,182 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | Avg. daily value (m) | Avg. daily value (m) | NT$6,720 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | Common s/h equity (12/26E) | Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$56.6b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | P/BV (12/26E) | P/BV (12/26E) | 7.8x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | NM |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
| From | To | %ch Cons. | |
| 12/26E | 62.06 | 66.10 | 7 66.86 |
| 12/27E | 114.94 | 120.56 | 5 113.73 |
| 12/28E | 136.85 | 146.58 | 7 145.71 |
| Ally Chen Analyst | |||
| ally.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7347 | |||
| Megan Li Analyst | |||
| megan.li@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7393 |
Figure 1: Q226 results comparison
| (NT$mn) | Q226A | Q226E | Diff. (%) | Q126A | QoQ (%) | Q225A | YoY (%) | Consensus | Diff. (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 23,281 | 22,336 | 4% | 20,864 | 12% | 16,933 | 37% | 22,968 | 1% |
| Gross profits | 7,154 | 6,590 | 9% | 6,002 | 19% | 5,269 | 36% | 7,142 | 0% |
| Operating profits | 4,010 | 3,798 | 6% | 3,108 | 29% | 2,867 | 40% | 3,944 | 2% |
| Pre-tax profits | 3,897 | 3,735 | 4% | 3,043 | 28% | 2,726 | 43% | 3,885 | 0% |
| Net income | 2,982 | 2,820 | 6% | 2,274 | 31% | 2,024 | 47% | 2,950 | 1% |
| EPS (NT$) | 15.28 | 14.45 | 6% | 11.66 | 31% | 10.54 | 45% | 15.15 | 1% |
| Operating ratio (%) | Diff. (ppt) | QoQ | (ppt) | YoY (ppt) | Diff. (ppt) | ||||
| Gross margin | 30.7% | 29.5% | 1.2 | 28.8% | 2.0 | 31.1% | -0.4 | 31.1% | -0.4 |
| Operating margin | 17.2% | 17.0% | 0.2 | 14.9% | 2.3 | 16.9% | 0.3 | 17.2% | 0.1 |
| Pre-tax margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0 | 14.6% | 2.2 | 16.1% | 0.6 | 16.9% | -0.2 |
| Net margin | 12.8% | 12.6% | 0.2 | 10.9% | 1.9 | 12.0% | 0.9 | 12.8% | 0.0 |
Source: Refinitiv, company data, UBS estimates
Figure 2: Summary of earnings estimate changes
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg (%) | New | Old | Chg (%) | New | Old | Chg (%) |
| Sales | 99,690 | 92,443 | 8 | 147,649 | 122,167 | 21 | 172,047 | 141,255 | 22 |
| Gross Profit | 30,949 | 28,061 | 10 | 49,264 | 43,726 | 13 | 58,017 | 50,334 | 15 |
| Operating Profit | 17,413 | 16,343 | 7 | 31,546 | 30,044 | 5 | 38,232 | 35,502 | 8 |
| Pre-tax Income | 17,107 | 16,086 | 6 | 31,331 | 29,864 | 5 | 38,128 | 35,586 | 7 |
| Net Income | 12,932 | 12,120 | 7 | 23,655 | 22,547 | 5 | 28,787 | 26,868 | 7 |
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 66.27 | 62.17 | 7 | 121.23 | 115.66 | 5 | 147.53 | 137.82 | 7 |
| Diluted EPS (NT$) | 66.10 | 62.06 | 7 | 120.56 | 114.94 | 5 | 146.58 | 136.85 | 7 |
| Operating Ratios (%) | New | Old Chg (ppt) | Old Chg (ppt) | New | Old | Chg (ppt) | New | Old | Chg (ppt) |
| Gross Margin | 31.0 | 30.4 | 0.7 | 33.4 | 35.8 | -2.4 | 33.7 | 35.6 | -1.9 |
| Operating Margin | 17.5 | 17.7 | -0.2 | 21.4 | 24.6 | -3.2 | 22.2 | 25.1 | -2.9 |
| Pre-tax Margin | 17.2 | 17.4 | -0.2 | 21.2 | 24.4 | -3.2 | 22.2 | 25.2 | -3.0 |
| Net Margin | 13.0 | 13.1 | -0.1 | 16.0 | 18.5 | -2.4 | 16.7 | 19.0 | -2.3 |
Source: UBS estimates
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 59.0% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.7% |
| Forecast stock return | 59.6% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 53.4% |
Company Description
Founded in 1996, BizLink is headquartered in Fremont, California. BizLink provides interconnect solutions, including connectors, harnesses and cables for a wide range of industries, such as industrials, automotive, IT & data communications, and electrical appliances. BizLink has 34 production facilities located in Asia, America and Europe.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target is based on a PE multiple.
The key company-specific risks are: 1) a global economic slowdown impacting end-demand; 2) a slower-than-expected change in the product mix leading to slower-than-expected grossmargin expansion; and 3) a rise in raw material prices.
The key industry-specific risks are: unexpected changes in the underlying global macro environment, currency and interest rate movement and commodity price inflation.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
BizLink Holding
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 21 August 2026 05:57 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.