260821_6223_旺矽_daiwa_MPI

PDF 原檔：260821_6223_旺矽_daiwa_MPI_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-24）

原始內容

Taiwan

MPI Corp (6223 TT)

MPI Corp

Target price:

TWD8,415.00

Share price (20 Aug): TWD5,650.00 | Up/downside: +48.9%

Initiation: mining the AI ASIC & CPO build-out

• Dominating customer ASICs and capturing spillover orders from CPUs
• Price hikes of MEMS probe cards and early-mover advantage in CPO
• Initiating our coverage with a Buy (1) call and 12M TP of TWD8,415

Investment case: We initiate coverage of MPI, a global leader in semiconductor testing interfaces and automated test equipment (ATE), with a Buy (1) rating. We view MPI as a key beneficiary of the AI ASIC trend, given its near-exclusive relationships with major US cloud service providers (CSPs) for custom AI ASICs. It is also capturing orders for server CPUs, as overseas competitors face capacity bottlenecks.

Technology transition to high-ASP MEMS. Advanced nodes (3nm/2nm) and larger package sizes are driving pin counts above 40k+ per assembly. Micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) probe cards are priced 20-30% higher vs. vertical probe cards (VPC) and are fast becoming the preferred technology and is substantially expanding revenue per wafer test. We believe MEMS probe cards will become the standard testing interface across almost all ASIC platforms from 2027E, driving MPI's gross margin expansion from 59.7% to 63% over 2026-28E.

Early mover in co-packaged optics (CPO) testing. Leveraging its photonics automation (PA) and advanced semiconductor test (AST) divisions, MPI provides turnkey electro-optical wafer-level testing and automated systems across critical CPO nodes (Insertion 2 and 3). We expect CPO testing equipment shipments and revenue recognition for MPI to commence in 4Q26, contributing 4.8-9.2% of revenue in 2027-28E.

Aggressive capacity expansion and vertical integration. MPI plans to double its monthly VPC/MEMS pin capacity from 5.5m pins (end-2026) to 9.0m pins (end-2027). We believe execution of capacity expansion could outpace management guidance, driven by robust ASIC demand. Besides, the commissioning of its dedicated Hsinchu PCB facility (>50% internal self-sufficiency rate) compresses new product introduction (NPI) lead times and eliminates third-party mark-ups, insulating operating leverage.

Catalysts: 1) Price hikes driven by supply tightness and structurally increased ASPs; 2) better-than-expected capacity expansion; and 3) revenue recognition from CPO testing equipment.

Valuation: Given the structural shift to MEMS probe cards and the potential for CPO testing equipment, we initiate coverage of MPI with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of TWD8,415, based on a target PER of 65x applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS. Our valuation is supported by our EPS CAGR of 78% over 2026-28E.

Risks: 1) Competitive and pricing pressure; 2) AI/HPC slowdown could delay ramp-up; 3) slower-than-expected CPO commercialisation.

21 August 2026

4

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Leon Chen

Leon Chen (886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Stacy Lin (886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Share price performance

Financial summary (TWD)

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Table of contents

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

valuation carnings revisions

5

4

Buy

(initiation)

Growth outlook

We forecast MPI's revenue to deliver a 62% CAGR over 2026-28E, driven by strong AI ASIC demand, accelerating adoption of high-pin-count MEMS probe cards, capacity expansion and the commercial ramp-up of CPO testing equipment. We forecast gross margin to expand from 59.7% in 2026E to 63% in 2028E, on structural product mix upgrades, the ramp up in shipments of CPO test systems, and greater vertical integration following in-house PCB capacity expansion.

Valuation

Our 12-month TP of TWD8,415 is based on a target PER of 65x, applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS. Our valuation is supported by our 78% EPS CAGR over 2026-28E. Although the recent share-price pullback was triggered by management's relatively conservative 2H26 guidance, we view this as an attractive entry window for long-term investors. With more AI/HPC probe card pull-ins and capacity coming online, we see upside to management's guidance by year-end.

Earnings revisions

Bloomberg consensus 2026-27E EPS estimates have gradually trended higher over the past year, likely reflecting stronger earnings visibility from the accelerated expansion of VPC and MEMS capacity and improving order visibility for CPO testing equipment. MPI is currently covered by 14 brokers, indicating broadening investor interest and growing market recognition of its multi-year AI and CPO growth prospects.

3

2

1

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

How do we justify our view?

Growth outlook

Valuation

Earnings revisions

MPI: revenue and gross margin outlook

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

MPI: 1-year-forward PER bands

MPI: Bloomberg-consensus earnings revisions

Source: Bloomberg

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Cash flow (TWDm)

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Key ratios (%)

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in Hsinchu in 1995, MPI is a leading global probe card supplier offering CPC, VPC and MEMS solutions, alongside photonics, semiconductor and thermal testing equipment. Growth is driven by expanding AI/HPC demand, rising MEMS adoption, capacity expansion, deeper vertical integration and emerging opportunities in CPO testing.

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

Scaling new heights in the AI ASIC & CPO era

Dominance in AI accelerators

Well positioned to capture growing AI ASIC probe card demand, benefiting from high switching costs and expanding production ramp ups

Founded in 1995, MPI Corporation is a global leader in semiconductor testing interfaces and automated test equipment (ATE). Starting with cantilever probe cards (CPCs), MPI has now transitioned into advanced wafer-level testing. Per management, the probe cards business accounted for 68% of its total revenue in 2025. In addition, MPI is currently the world's No.1 vertical probe card (VPC) supplier, with a 31% global market share in terms of revenue according to Yole Intelligence and maintains near-exclusive supply relations with major US networking clients, per management. We believe this entrenched position directly links MPI to core custom AI ASIC projects across top-tier CSPs.

Global: non-memory probe card supplier ranking

Source: Techinsights

Global: non-memory probe card TAM

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Benefiting from Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing cluster, we believe MPI has maintained a high market share across these ASIC projects and is progressively becoming the exclusive supplier. As highlighted in our Initiation: paradigm shift accelerated by AI report, the test interface represents a minute fraction - typically less than 1-2% - of total COGS. Even with structural growth driven by ASP expansion, we believe the cost-to-value ratio remains relatively small. This is reinforced by high switching costs, as clients are highly price inelastic when yield insurance is at stake. Therefore, with more ASIC projects being developed and moving into mass production, we expect demand for probe cards is bound to grow and MPI has positioned itself at the centre of the AI megatrend.

Global: ASIC shipments

Source: Daiwa forecasts

The migration towards advanced process nodes and larger AI packages is accelerating MEMS probe card adoption, driving both pin-content and ASP expansion

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

In addition to its market-leading position in AI ASICs, we note that agentic AI is also driving a massive surge in compute requirements for server CPUs - such as NVIDIA Vera CPU and AMD EPYC - as well as high-performance graphics processors. Given the capacity bottlenecks faced by overseas probe card competitors such as FormFactor and Technoprobe, we believe MPI's local engineering support, rapid turn-around-time (TAT), and significant manufacturing scale have enabled it to capture substantial spillover orders across major global chipmakers and transfer to long-term business.

MEMS upgrade and content expansion

Echoing our Initiation: paradigm shift accelerated by AI , as custom AI accelerator architectures migrate towards 3nm and 2nm leading-edge semiconductor nodes accompanied by significantly larger package dimensions, pin counts are surging from several thousands to over 40k pins per probe card assembly, based on our channel checks. This structural rise in pin density and signal integrity requirements is rapidly driving a transition from traditional cobra needle architectures to ultra-fine-pitch MEMS probe cards. We expect MEMS probe cards to be adopted across nearly all AI GPU and ASIC platforms from 2026.

In addition, MEMS probes command a superior ASP of c.USD13-15 per pin, representing a 20-30% premium vs. conventional VPC needles (USD10-13 per pin), which substantially expands the total dollar content per silicon wafer test, per our channel checks. As testing interface expenditure represents less than 1% of total chip manufacturing costs, we believe hyper-scaler customers prioritise test reliability over price and demonstrate extremely high vendor stickiness once a supplier is qualified.

Leveraging its vertical integration model encompassing probe design, ceramic substrate fabrication and automated assembly, MPI delivers uncompromised contact stability and yield preservation. We believe MPI's technical moat will fuel revenue growth in MEMS and VPC probe cards over our forecast horizon.

Comparison between MEMS and traditional VPC

Source: Formfactor, Daiwa

CPO testing flow

INSERTION 1

PIC or PIC and EIC

Optical |

Electricall

INSERTION 2

PIC and EIC

Electrical|

Probe

Probe

Probe

MPI's photonics testing expertise & automation capabilities positions it as a key beneficiary of the emerging CPO testing ecosystem

Source: Teradvne

Wafer

Optical Engine

INSERTION 3

Individuated OE on interposer or packaged with fiber connectors

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Packaged Module

INSERTION 4

High value Switch or XPU integrated with surrounding co-packaged

Early mover advantage in CPO

As traditional copper interconnects reach their physical limits in bandwidth, latency and thermal dissipation, silicon photonics (SiPh), and co-packaged optics (CPO) have emerged as essential paradigm shifts for next-generation AI data centre networks. However, the commercial deployment of CPO architectures faces severe manufacturing bottlenecks, particularly in optical-electrical alignment precision and highly complex multi-stage testing protocols.

CPO testing flow

Source: Teradyne

Combining decades of technical expertise across its Photonics Automation (PA) and Advanced Semiconductor Test (AST) divisions, MPI stands as one of the few global vendors capable of delivering fully integrated wafer-level electro-optical testing interfaces and automated test systems. MPI is strategically positioned across crucial CPO testing nodes, most notably Insertion 2 - performing double-sided electro-optical wafer-level testing on electro-photonic integrated circuits (EPIC) after hybrid bonding - and Insertion 3, which executes optical engine (OE)-level singulated die and module testing.

As foundry leaders such as TSMC ramp their Compact Universal Photonic Engine (COUPE) architecture and primary CSP CPO projects into qualification and volume production through 2026 and 2027, MPI is uniquely positioned to capture dual revenue streams. We believe testing equipment for Insertion 3 will start ramping up and contributing to revenue from 4Q26. In addition, while testing equipment for Insertion 2 is currently undergoing customer qualification, we expect its commercial adoption to pick up momentum as wafer-level optical integration scales in 2Q27.

Backed by strong ecosystem partnerships with ATE leader Advantest and metrology powerhouse Keysight, we believe MPI is uniquely positioned to capture strong tailwinds. Furthermore, we highlight that MPI's ability to bundle automated optical testing equipment with CPO-dedicated probe cards as a turnkey solution creates a compelling value proposition. We believe this integrated offering establishes a powerful second growth pillar for the company, providing multi-year earnings visibility and supporting a long-term valuation premium. We expect CPO testing equipment to account 4.8% of MPI's total revenue in 2027E and 9.2% in 2028E.

Daiwa

MPI's aggressive capacity expansion and PCB vertical integration support long-term AI ASIC and CPO growth

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

MPI: CPO testing equipment revenue growth

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Capacity expansion to capture the AI megatrend

To satisfy booming global demand for AI chip testing, MPI is deploying the largest capex and capacity expansion strategy in its corporate history. Management projects the company's monthly production capacity for VPC and MEMS probe pins to double from 5.5m pins by end-2026 to 9.0m pins by end-2027, underscoring exceptional long-term order visibility and customer commitments. While its headline monthly revenue has yet to return to prior peaks - partly due to revenue-recognition timing lags that keep management's tone conservative - we expect capacity additions to track ahead of official guidance over our forecast horizon, paving the way for the upcoming ASIC ramp cycle. Furthermore, we expect 2028 capacity to outpace 2027 levels, driven by robust demand from AI ASICs and the commercial mass production of CPO.

Furthermore, MPI's newly commissioned, dedicated probe-card PCB facility in Hsinchu targets an internal PCB self-sufficiency rate of over 50%. This vertical integration breakthrough successfully resolves the industry-wide bottleneck in external substrate procurement. By controlling substrate production in-house, MPI can not only dramatically compresses New Product Introduction (NPI) lead times for tier-one clients but also eliminate third-party component margin markups. Consequently, this strategic buildout acts as a primary catalyst insulating operating leverage and driving corporate gross margins towards the landmark 60%+ threshold.

MPI: capacity expansion plan

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

We expect AI ASIC ramp ups and the commercialisation of CPO testing equipment to drive MPI's next multiyear growth cycle

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Financial analysis

Revenue growth over 2026-28E

Driven by soaring hyperscaler demand for custom AI ASICs and equipment demand for CPO testing, we believe MPI is embarking on a multi-year revenue growth trajectory. We forecast CPC/VPC probe card revenue to increase from TWD9.1bn in 2025 to TWD47.1bn in 2028E. With improved execution on capacity expansion, we believe the original capacity expansion plan could be completed ahead of schedule, potentially before the targeted end2027 completion date. On the other hand, we believe CPO testing equipment will start shipping to clients, recognising revenue in 4Q26 (some may defer to 1Q27). Therefore, we forecast total revenue to increase from TWD13.4bn in 2025 to TWD61.5bn in 2028E, representing 2026-28E top-line CAGR of 62%.

MPI: total revenue trend and forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

MPI: quarterly and annual P&L statements

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Structural AI ASIC demand, CPO testing adoption, and greater vertical integration are expected to support further margin expansion

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Gross margin growth over 2026-28E

MPI's gross margin significantly improved from 47.8% in 2024 to all-time high of 59.5% in 1Q26, driven by structural demand from AI ASICs. Although gross margin slightly fell to 58.4% in 2Q26, management expects it to recover to 59.5% in 3Q26, with better product mix and price hikes. We forecast MPI's gross margin to expand steadily from 59.7% in 2026E to 63% in 2028E, underpinned by structural product-mix upgrades and enhanced vertical integration. In our view, primary tailwinds include rising penetration of high-ASP MEMS probe cards, the commercial ramp-up in shipments of automated CPO test systems, and 2027 commissioning of MPI's dedicated Hsinchu PCB facility, which targets an internal self-sufficiency rate above 50% to eliminate third-party substrate mark-ups.

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Operating leverage profile

We forecast top-line revenue to expand several-fold over 2026-28E, but operating expense ratios (SG&A ratio: 59%/44% in 2025/2028E; R&D ratio: 26%/31% in 2025/2028E) to decline sharply, triggering a steep expansion in operating margin from 36.8% in 2026E to 46.1% by 2028E. In addition, as the internal self-sufficiency rate improves, we believe this operating leverage will allow operating profit growth (82% CAGR in 2026-28E) to significantly outpace top-line revenue growth over our forecast period.

MPI: operating margin trend and forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Balance sheet and cash flow

As top-tier CSPs accelerate AI ASIC deployments, we expect MPI's operating cash inflows to expand multi-fold, providing substantial financial flexibility to fund aggressive expansion without straining liquidity. We note that working capital cycles remained healthy; despite revenue scaling rapidly over the past few years, inventory turnover days are well managed due to MPI's high vertical integration and precise supply-chain control over core probe card raw materials and substrates.

Daiwa

MPI: free cash flow

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

MPI: inventory and days of inventory trend and forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

To support unprecedented order visibility, MPI is executing the largest capital expenditure plan in its history. Despite elevated capital outlays during the company's proposed 2026-27 capex peak, we believe net profit growth (with a 2026-28E EPS CAGR of 78%) will generate powerful operating cash flows. This would lead to free cash flow rapidly expanding, covering capex requirements while maintaining a sustainable dividend payout ratio of c.66% and an attractive ROE of 60%+ over 2027-2028E.

MPI: dividend & payout ratio

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

We initiate coverage of MPI with a Buy (1) rating on AI ASIC projects ramp-up

Risks to our call

1. Competitive and pricing pressure - primary risk: Continued investment by global and regional probe card suppliers could intensify competition for key design wins, constrain MPI's market-share expansion and place pressure on pricing and margins in high-end applications.
2. AI/HPC demand concentration - secondary risk: MPI's growth remains highly exposed to hyperscaler capex and AI chip roadmaps. Any moderation in infrastructure spending or platform delays could slow project ramp-ups, defer revenue recognition and reduce earnings visibility.
3. CPO commercialisation risk - secondary risk: CPO testing remains at an early stage, with significant technical, qualification and ecosystem coordination requirements. Slower-than-expected industry adoption could delay MPI's anticipated revenue contribution and weaken its medium-term growth outlook.

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Valuation and recommendation

Initiating coverage with a Buy (1) rating

Given the structural shift in MEMS probe card and the potential of CPO testing equipment, we initiate coverage of MPI with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of TWD8,415. Our TP is based on a target PER of 65x applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS. Our valuation is supported by our 2026-28E EPS CAGR of 78%.

Following the company's 2Q26 earnings call, the market experienced a short-term pullback primarily triggered by management's relatively conservative 2H26 guidance. However, we view this as an attractive entry window for long-term investors. In our view, the muted outlook reflects management's customary prudence and capacity lead-time constraints rather than softening end-demand. With more AI/HPC probe card pull-ins and capacity coming online, we see clear upside potential to beat management guidance by year-end. We believe MPI's structural story remains intact.

MPI: blended 12-month PER bands (past 3 years)

Source: Bloomberg

Peers valuation

Source: Bloomberg, *Daiwa forecasts Note: Share prices as of 20 Aug 2026

MPI: blended 12-month PBR bands (past 3 years)

Source: Bloomberg

Daiwa

MPI is a leading global probe card supplier with a vertically integrated model and broad exposure to AI, HPC and emerging CPO testing applications

Appendix

Company introduction

Founded in Hsinchu in 1995, MPI initially focused on cantilever probe cards before broadening its portfolio through organic development and acquisitions. It became Taiwan's first publicly listed probe card company in 2003 and has since established itself as one of the world's leading probe card suppliers.

MPI offers a full spectrum of CPC, VPC and MEMS probe cards. Its equipment businesses also provide photonics automation, advanced semiconductor testing and extremetemperature thermal solutions. The company serves a diversified customer base spanning leading IC design vendors, as well as major foundries and OSATs.

MPI's key competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated manufacturing model, with probes and substrates produced in-house and high-layer PCB capacity currently being expanded. This structure enhances design flexibility, strengthens supply-chain control and shortens delivery lead. Combined with its proximity to Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystem and early customer engagement, these capabilities position MPI to capture rising demand for AI/HPC probe cards and emerging CPO testing solutions.

Shareholder structure

MPI's shareholder base is relatively diversified, with no single shareholder holding a controlling stake. The largest shareholder, Wang Hsi Investment Co., Ltd., owns c.8.5%, while other major holders include domestic pension funds and global institutional investors such as Vanguard, BlackRock, JPMorgan and Dresdner Bank. Notably, MPI has a high free float of c.73.6%, supporting strong trading liquidity and broad institutional participation.

MPI: shareholder structure (as of 20 August 2026)

Source: Bloomberg, Company

MPI: foreign institutional ownership trend

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 21 Aug 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

Daiwa's Asia Pacific Research Directory

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

Daiwa

Daiwa's Offices

DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH LTD

HEAD OFFICE

MARUNOUCHI OFFICE

New York Research Center

London Research Centre

MPI Corp (6223 TT): 21 August 2026

15-6, Fuyuki, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8460, Japan

(81) 3 5620 5100

Gran Tokyo North Tower, 1-9-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-6756 (81) 3 5555 7011

11th Floor, Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, NY, NY 10005-3504, U.S.A.

3/F, 5 King William Street, London, EC4N 7AX, United Kingdom

(1) 212 612 6100

(44) 207 597 8000

Daiwa

(81) 3 5620 5603

(81) 3 5202 2021

(1) 212 612 8417

(44) 207 597 8550