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原始內容
M June 30, 2026 02:18 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Asia Pacific
Testing Consumables: Potential Price Hike Coming; Reiterate OW on MPI and WinWay
Key Takeaways
- Rising precious metal prices and a severe test pin capacity shortage point to likely price hikes for probe cards and test sockets, passing costs on to customers.
- Very strong June results look likely in view of probe card and test socket demand, driven by a robust AI/HPC ramp and incremental DDIC momentum.
With precious metal prices continually rising and a severe shortage in test pin capacity, our supply chain checks suggest that probe card and test socket vendors are likely to raise prices, passing costs on to customers - similar to other segments in the semi industry.
Reiterate OW on MPI and WinWay: With capacity tight and new supply taking time to ramp, we believe probe card and test socket vendors have pricing power. We also think MPI and WinWay are likely to post very strong June results, driven by robust AI/HPC ramp and even DDICs.
MPI's share price has lagged amid weak CPO sentiment; however, we see no change in insertion test demand as optical engines remain necessary regardless of what new technology FAU is adopting. We view 43x 2027e EPS as an attractive entry point to capture the 105% 2025-2028e earnings CAGR.
WinWay should start fully ramping the new capacity to fulfill strong backlog starting in June. Valuation is 39x 2027e EPS vs. our 2025-2028 EPS CAGR projection at 111%.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | 2 2730-2875 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +886 +852 3963-2287 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
Greater China Technology Semiconductors
Asia Pacific Industry View
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