PDF 原檔：260623_2027cowos分配_ms_AI-supply-chain_original.pdf
原始內容
M June 23, 2026 10:09 AM GMT
Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific
AI Supply Chain: Preliminary 2027 TSMC CoWoS Allocation
Nvidia's GPU and CPU remain the key drivers of TSMC's 2027 CoWoS demand. With improved ABF substrate supply sourcing, MediaTek's 2027 and 2028 TPU shipments could show upside.
Into 2027, Nvidia likely remains the major user of TSMC's CoWoS capacity: At Computex in early June, in response to our question about TSMC's capacity allocation, Nvidia's CEO indicated that it has secured sufficient TSMC capacity to support robust growth in 2027. In our previous episode, we had raised our 2027 TSMC CoWoS capacity assumption to 200kwpm by year-end (from 170kwpm), implying ~60% Y/Y growth for the global AI XPU industry. Based on our industry checks, we break down TSMC's customer mix. Nvidia uses TSMC's CoWoS-L as the single source for its AI GPU products (e.g., Blackwell and Rubin). Its 2027 CoWoS-L consumption could reach ~910k, up ~40% Y/Y. Strong CoWoS-R bookings by Nvidia aslo suggest very strong Vera CPU shipments (almost doubling). Taken together, this is consistent with Joe Moore's forecast for Nvidia's data center revenue to rise 52% Y/Y over a similar period.
Google's TPU ASIC is the second-largest user of TSMC CoWoS: MediaTek's booking for 180k CoWoS-S implies ~3.6mn units of TPU v8t (ZebraFish), above our 2.5mn shipment assumption, where we incorporate potential ABF substrate shortages. However, if MediaTek can help Google source more T-Glass, there may be upside to our shipment assumption. Our checks suggest that the new 2nm TPU codename TriggerFish is the inferencing-focused version of HumuFish, in line with our previous understanding that all TPUs are capable of both training and inferencing. We believe TriggerFish may also support TPU leasing services. Meanwhile, we believe Broadcom bookings of 365k CoWoS-S likely include Google TPU v7 (Ironwood), v8i (SunFish), Tomahawk 5/6, and other smaller ASICs. If we assume 330k of Broadcom's CoWoS-S is allocated to TPU v8i (SunFish), this would imply ~3.9mn units, with larger die size and higher chip value vs. MediaTek's TPU v8t (ZebraFish). Overall, both design service partners appear positioned to benefit from growth in the TPU TAM in 2027.
CPU starting to consume significant 2.5D advanced packaging capacity: This echoes Joe Moore's recent Taiwan field trip observations: growing CPU demand for agentic AI (link). In addition, based on our CoWoS consumption forecasts, Nvidia's 3nm Vera CPU could grow to 5.75mn units in 2027, while AMD's 2nm Venice CPU may reach 6.75mn units in 2027 vs. ~1.25mn in 2026. For Taiwan AI semi supply chain stocks: 1) MediaTek (Google TPU) is our Top Pick; 2) Aspeed remains the best proxy for CPU server BMC; and 3) we reiterate OW on TSMC, ASE (AMD Venice CPU), KYEC (Nvidia GPU and Google TPU supply chain), Winway, MPI, and Hon Precision in chip manufacturing.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate | +852 3963-2287 |
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Idea
Introducing Our 2027 Global CoWoS Capacity Update
In our previous report (see Asia-Pacific Technology: Taiwan Computex preview: NVIDIA's Vera CPU and Rubin GPU seen as the main show (27 May 2026)), we lifted our TSMC 2027 CoWoS capacity assumption to 200kwpm from 170kwpm and trimmed our SoIC capacity build forecasts. Strong AI GPU and CPU demand has led TSMC to further expand CoWoS capacity at its AP7 fab. Our checks suggest that TSMC is converting its Fab 15A 28nm/22nm space into 55nm interposer production.
On the other hand, we expect the non-TSMC camp to expand CoWoS capacity to 80kwpm by end-2027e. For ASE/SPIL, we expect FoCoS+CoWoS capacity to rise from 30kwpm at 2026-end to 50kwpm at 2027-end, with expansion focused on CoWoS-L and CoWoS-R. For Amkor, we expect CoWoS capacity to increase from 20kwpm at 2026-end to 30kwpm at 2027-end, also focused on CoWoS-L and CoWoS-R.
Exhibit 1: Global CoWoS demand breakdown: 2026e vs. 2027e
Global CoWoS capacity demand by key customer
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks
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Exhibit 2: Global CoWoS demand Y/Y growth profile
| Y/Y | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 119% | 280% | 113% | 84% | 57% |
| Broadcom | 56% | 191% | 25% | 253% | 61% |
| AMD | 485% | 470% | 50% | 117% | 308% |
| Xilinx | 63% | 242% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AWS/Annapurna | 3% | 45% | |||
| AWS/Alchip | 71% | (69%) | 420% | 38% | |
| Marvell | (22%) | 1438% | (17%) | 13% | 276% |
| GUC | (15%) | 300% | 600% | 329% | |
| Cisco | 36% | 67% | 10% | ||
| Others | 23% | (49%) | 50% | (33%) | 20% |
| Total demand | 95% | 218% | 85% | 102% | 93% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks
2027 CoWoS allocation assumptions
CoWoS update ( Exhibit 3 ):
- Nvidia's total CoWoS consumption increases 57% Y/Y, to 1,222k:
- ° CoWoS-L consumption increases 40% Y/Y, to 910k, with production focusing on Rubin and Blackwell in 1H27, followed by Rubin Ultra in 2H27.
- ° For CoWoS-R, we see TSMC and Amkor production focused on Vera CPU, which implies production of 5.75mn. We see this coming from both Vera Rubin/Vera Rubin Ultra racks and standalone Vera CPU rack demand.
- ° CoWoS-S production includes both Quantum and Spectrum switch IC, with production across TSMC, SPIL, and Amkor.
- AMD's total CoWoS consumption increases 308% Y/Y to 530k:
- ° We see TSMC mainly in charge of GPU-related production. We see MI455 as the key focus for 2027, with minor production for MI500 series (chip code name Arcadia) in late 2027. Total TSMC CoWoS-L booking increases 200% Y/ Y in 2027e, to 240k.
- ° We see the non-TSMC camp, including ASE/SPIL, Amkor, and Powertech, being mainly in charge of Venice CPU, high-end PC CPU, and gaming GPU production. We see Venice CPU's CoWoS booking increasing from 50k in 2026 to 270k in 2027, implying 6.75mn units of CPU production, supporting strong demand from agentic AI.
- ° We see Xilinx's demand remaining flat Y/Y at 10k of CoWoS bookings.
- Broadcom's total CoWoS consumption rises 61% Y/Y, to 484k:
- ° We see CoWoS-L booking increasing from 15k in 2026 to 55k in 2027, mainly for Meta's MTIAv3 ASIC Iris.
- ° For Google TPU, we see Ironwood and Sunfish together accounting for 343k of CoWoS-S bookings, implying 4,168k of TPU chips. We also see a slight increase in Broadcom's smaller AI ASIC customers in 2027.
- MediaTek's total CoWoS consumption increases from 40k in 2026 to 180k in 2027:
- ° This is mainly for TSMC's CoWoS-S capacity for TPU v8t ZebraFish.
- ° We also see around 400k units of chip production from Intel EMIB-T for the 2nm TPU v9 (HumuFish) TPU in 2027.
- ° Separately, our checks suggest the new 2nm TPU codename TriggerFish is the inferencing-focused version of HumuFish, in line with our previous understanding that all TPUs are capable of both training and inferencing, and we believe TriggerFish may also support TPU leasing services.
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- AWS/Annapurna's CoWoS-R booking increases from 62k in 2026e to 90k in 2027e:
- ° Although Annapurna is still in charge of the front-end booking for Trainium 3, we see it placing 54k of CoWoS-R at TSMC and 36k at ASE.
- Alchip increases CoWoS-R booking 38% Y/Y, to 36k, with all of its bookings at TSMC.
- Marvell's total booking increases from 17k in 2026e to 64k in 2027e:
- ° Microsoft Maia 300 consumes around 50k of CoWoS-L booking at TSMC.
- ° For Trainium 3, we see it having 14k of CoWoS-R booking at ASE.
- GUC's total CoWoS booking increases from 14k in 2026e to 60k in 2027e:
- ° We believe demand is mainly driven by multiple customers.
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Exhibit 3: Global CoWoS demand breakdown with newly introduced 2027e numbers
| (k wafer) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 53 | 200 | 425 | 780 | 1,222 | 45% | 54% | 62% | 56% | 45% |
| TSMC | 390 | 680 | 1,090 | |||||||
| CoWoS-L | 390 | 650 | 910 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 0 | 20 | 50 | |||||||
| CoWoS-R | 0 | 10 | 130 | |||||||
| Non-TSMC | 35 | 100 | 132 | |||||||
| Amkor | 35 | 100 | 132 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 20 | 20 | 12 | |||||||
| CoWoS-R | 15 | 80 | 120 | |||||||
| ASE/SPIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| CoWoS-R | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Broadcom | 23 | 68 | 85 | 300 | 484 | 20% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 18% |
| TSMC | 83 | 260 | 420 | |||||||
| CoWoS-L | 0 | 15 | 55 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 83 | 245 | 365 | |||||||
| ASE/SPIL | 2 | 30 | 40 | |||||||
| CoWoS-L | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 2 | 30 | 40 | |||||||
| Amkor | 10 | 24 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-S | 10 | 24 | ||||||||
| AMD | 7 | 40 | 60 | 130 | 530 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 20% |
| TSMC | 60 | 80 | 240 | |||||||
| CoWoS-L | 0 | 70 | 230 | |||||||
| CoWoS-S | 60 | 10 | 10 | |||||||
| ASE/SPIL | 0 | 50 | 170 | |||||||
| CoWoS-L | 0 | 50 | 170 | |||||||
| Amkor | 0 | 120 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-S | 0 | 120 | ||||||||
| Xilinx | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| MediaTek | 40 | 180 | 3% | 7% | ||||||
| TSMC | 40 | 180 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-S | 40 | 180 | ||||||||
| AWS/Annapurna | 60 | 62 | 90 | 4% | 3% | |||||
| TSMC | 60 | 32 | 54 | |||||||
| CoWoS-R | 60 | 32 | 54 | |||||||
| ASE/SPIL | 30 | 36 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-R | 30 | 36 | ||||||||
| AWS/Alchip | 9 | 16 | 5 | 26 | 36 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Intel Habana | 0 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Marvell | 1 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 64 | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| TSMC | 5 | 50 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-L | 5 | 50 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-R | 15 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| ASE/SPIL | 12 | 14 | ||||||||
| CoWoS-R | 12 | 14 | ||||||||
| GUC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cisco | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Others | 20 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Total demand | 117 | 372 | 689 | 1,394 | 2,694 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks
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Exhibit 4: Global CoWoS capacity expansion by year end and by vendor
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
Exhibit 6:
AI HBM consumption: up to 51bn Gb in 2027
| AI chip vendor | Product name | CoWoS capacity allocation (k wafers) | Chips per CoWoS wafer | Implied shipments (k) | HBMchip density (GB) | HBMchip units | Total HBMsize (GB) | HBM generation | HBMvendor | TotalHBM demand (k GB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI GPU (2027e) | ||||||||||
| B300 | 40 | 14 | 560 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Micron | 161,280 | |
| Vera CPU | 250 | 23 | 5,750 | |||||||
| NVIDIA | Rubin R200 | 740 | 8 | 5,920 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM4 12hi | Hynix/Micron/Samsung | 1,704,960 |
| Rubin Ultra | 130 | 8 | 1,040 | 48 | 8 | 384 | HBM4e 12hi | Hynix/Micron/Samsung | 399,360 | |
| MI350 series | 24 | 12 | 288 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung/Micron | 82,944 | |
| MI400 series | 192 | 10 | 1,920 | 36 | 12 | 432 | HBM4 12hi | Samsung/Micron | 829,440 | |
| AMD | MI500 (Arcadia) | 24 | 4 | 96 | 48 | 16 | 768 | HBM4e 12hi | Samsung/Micron | 73,728 |
| Venice CPU | 270 | 25 | 6,750 | |||||||
| AI ASIC (2027e) | ||||||||||
| TPU v7p (Ironwood; AVGO) | 13 | 16 | 208 | 24 | 8 | 192 | HBM3e 8hi | Hynix/Samsung | 39,936 | |
| TPU v8i (Sunfish; AVGO) | 330 | 12 | 3,960 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung/Hynix/Micron | 1,140,480 | |
| TPU v8t (Zebrafish; MediaTek) | 180 | 20 | 3,600 | 36 | 6 | 216 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung/Hynix/Micron | 777,600 | |
| TPU v9 (Humufish; MediaTek) | 400 | 48 | 12 | 576 | HBM4e 12hi | Samsung/Hynix/Micron | 230,400 | |||
| AWS | Trainium 3 | 140 | 17 | 2,380 | 36 | 4 | 144 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Samsung/Micron | 342,720 |
| GUC's customers | 60 | 20 | 1,200 | 24 | 6 | 144 | HBM3e 8hi | Samsung? | 172,800 | |
| Microsoft | Maia 300 | 50 | 11 | 550 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM4 12hi | Samsung | 158,400 |
| Meta | MTIA 3 (Iris) | 55 | 10 | 550 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung/Hynix/Micron | 158,400 |
| Others | 18 | |||||||||
| Total | 2,664 | 35,407 | 6,326,088 | |||||||
| Total HBMdemand (mn Gb) | Total HBMdemand (mn Gb) | 50,609 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.
Exhibit 7: AI wafer consumption: at least US$47bn in 2027
| AI chip vendor | Product name | CoWoS capacity allocation (k wafers) | Chips per CoWoS wafer | Implied shipments (k) | Compute die size | Geometry | Compute die units | Wafer consumption (k wafers) | Wafer price (US$) | Wafer revenue TAM (US$ mn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI GPU (2027e) | ||||||||||
| B300 | 40 | 14 | 560 | 850 | 4nm | 2 | 44 | 23,042 | 1,024 | |
| NVIDIA | Vera CPU | 250 | 23 | 5,750 | 850 | 3nm | 1 | 228 | 27,300 | 6,229 |
| Rubin R200 | 740 | 8 | 5,920 | 850 | 3nm | 2 | 470 | 27,300 | 12,827 | |
| Rubin Ultra | 130 | 8 | 1,040 | 850 | 3nm | 2 | 58 | 27,300 | 1,588 | |
| AMD | MI350 series | 24 | 12 | 288 | 110 | 3nm | 8 | 8 | 27,300 | 229 |
| MI400 series | 192 | 10 | 1,920 | 850 | 2nm | 2 | 23 | 30,000 | 698 | |
| MI500 (Arcadia) | 24 | 4 | 96 | 2nm | 30,000 | |||||
| Venice CPU | 270 | 25 | 6,750 | 2nm | ||||||
| AI ASIC (2027e) | ||||||||||
| TPU v7p (Ironwood; AVGO) | 13 | 16 | 208 | 700 | 3nm | 2 | 14 | 27,300 | 371 | |
| TPU v8i (Sunfish; AVGO) | 330 | 12 | 3,960 | 800 | 3nm | 2 | 296 | 27,300 | 8,075 | |
| TPU v8t (Zebrafish; MediaTek) | 180 | 20 | 3,600 | 800 | 3nm | 2 | 269 | 27,300 | 7,341 | |
| TPU v9 (Humufish; MediaTek) | 400 | 850 | 2nm | 2 | 32 | 27,300 | 867 | |||
| AWS | Trainium 3 | 140 | 17 | 2,380 | 700 | 3nm | 2 | 127 | 27,300 | 3,465 |
| GUC's customers | 60 | 20 | 1,200 | 645 | 4nm | 1 | 29 | 23,042 | 674 | |
| Microsoft | Maia 300 | 50 | 11 | 550 | 850 | 2nm | 1 | 29.1 | 30,000 | 873 |
| Meta | MTIA 3 (Iris) | 55 | 10 | 550 | 850 | 3nm | 2 | 44 | 27,300 | 1,192 |
| Others | 18 | |||||||||
| Total | 2,664 | 35,407 | 1,707 | 46,418 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.
Exhibit 5: Global CoWoS consumption, by customer
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are compiled using our supply chain checks
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Exhibit 8: AI HBM consumption: up to 31bn Gb in 2026
| AI chip vendor | Product name | CoWoS capacity allocation (k wafers) | Chips per CoWoS wafer | Implied shipments (k) | HBMchip density (GB) | HBMchip units | Total HBMsize (GB) | HBM generation | HBMvendor | TotalHBM demand (k GB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI GPU (2026e) | ||||||||||
| B300 | 390 | 14 | 5,460 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Micron/Samsung | 1,572,480 | |
| Vera CPU | 90 | 23 | 2,070 | |||||||
| NVIDIA | Spectrum/CPX | 60 | - | |||||||
| Rubin R200 | 260 | 8 | 2,080 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM4 12hi | Hynix/Micron/Samsung? | 599,040 | |
| H200 | 20 | 27 | 540 | 24 | 6 | 141 | HBM3e 8hi | Hynix | 76,140 | |
| MI300 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 24 | 8 | 192 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung | 6,912 | |
| MI350/375 | 7 | 12 | 84 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Samsung/Micron | 24,192 | |
| AMD | MI400 | 65 | 10 | 650 | 36 | 12 | 432 | HBM4 12hi | Samsung/Micron | 280,800 |
| Venice | 50 | 25 | 1,250 | |||||||
| AI ASIC (2026e) | ||||||||||
| TPU v7p (Ironwood; AVGO) | 145 | 16 | 2,320 | 24 | 8 | 192 | HBM3e 8hi | Hynix/Samsung | 445,440 | |
| TPU v8i (Sunfish; AVGO) | 80 | 12 | 960 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Samsung/Micron | 276,480 | |
| TPU v8t (Zebrafish; MediaTek) | 40 | 20 | 800 | 36 | 6 | 216 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Micron | 172,800 | |
| AWS | Trainium 3 | 100 | 17 | 1,700 | 36 | 4 | 144 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Samsung/Micron | 244,800 |
| GUC's customers | 10 | 20 | 200 | 24 | 6 | 144 | HBM3e 8hi | Samsung? | 1,152 | |
| Maia 200 | 4 | 29 | 116 | 16 | 4 | 64 | HBM3 | Samsung | 7,424 | |
| Microsoft | Maia 300 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM4 12hi | Samsung | 15,840 |
| Meta | MTIA 3 (Iris) | 15 | 10 | 150 | 36 | 8 | 288 | HBM3e 12hi | Hynix/Samsung | 43,200 |
| Total | 1,424 | 18,921 | 3,825,500 | |||||||
| Total HBMdemand (mn Gb) | Total HBMdemand (mn Gb) | 30,604 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.
Exhibit 9: AI wafer consumption: at least US$27bn in 2026
| AI chip vendor | Product name | CoWoS capacity allocation (k wafers) | Chips per CoWoS wafer | Implied shipments (k) | Compute die size | Geometry | Compute die units | Wafer consumption (k wafers) | Wafer price (US$) | Wafer revenue TAM (US$ mn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI GPU (2026e) | ||||||||||
| B300 | 390 | 14 | 5,460 | 850 | 4nm | 2 | 433 | 21,945 | 9,510 | |
| Vera CPU | 90 | 23 | 2,070 | 3nm | ||||||
| NVIDIA | Spectrum/CPX | 60 | - | |||||||
| Rubin R200 | 260 | 8 | 2,080 | 850 | 3nm | 2 | 165 | 26,000 | 4,292 | |
| H200 | 20 | 27 | 540 | 814 | 4nm | 1 | 15 | 21,945 | 331 | |
| MI300 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 110 | 5nm | 8 | 1 | 18,000 | 19 | |
| MI350/375 | 7 | 12 | 84 | 110 | 3nm | 8 | 2 | 26,000 | 64 | |
| AMD | MI400 | 65 | 10 | 650 | 110 | 2nm | 8 | 32 | 28,125 | 886 |
| Venice | 50 | 25 | 1,250 | |||||||
| AI ASIC (2026e) | ||||||||||
| TPU v7p (Ironwood; AVGO) | 145 | 16 | 2,320 | 700 | 3nm | 2 | 152 | 26,000 | 3,942 | |
| TPU v8i (Sunfish; AVGO) | 80 | 12 | 960 | 800 | 3nm | 2 | 72 | 26,000 | 1,864 | |
| TPU v8t (Zebrafish; MediaTek) | 40 | 20 | 800 | 800 | 3nm | 2 | 60 | 26,000 | 1,554 | |
| AWS | Trainium 3 | 100 | 17 | 1,700 | 700 | 3nm | 2 | 91 | 26,000 | 2,357 |
| GUC's customers | 10 | 20 | 200 | 645 | 4nm | 1 | 5 | 21,945 | 107 | |
| Maia 200 | 4 | 29 | 116 | 700 | 3nm | 1 | 3.0 | 26,000 | 79 | |
| Microsoft | Maia 300 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 850 | 2nm | 1 | 2.9 | 28,125 | 82 |
| Meta | MTIA 3 (Iris) | 15 | 10 | 150 | 850 | 3nm | 2 | 11.9 | 26,000 | 310 |
| Total | 1,424 | 18,921 | 1,075 | 26,107 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.
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AI semis - stock implications, P/E multiples, revenue exposure
Exhibit 10: P/E multiple trend of AI semis
Note: Alternative AI semis group: AMD, Alchip, Andes, Marvell, Broadcom. AI semi enablers group: TSMC, Synopsys, Cadence, ASML, BESI, Ibiden, KYEC, Advantest. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research.
Exhibit 11: We still expect AI chip revenue to rise QoQ
Data center/HPC semi revenue: NVIDIA + AMD
Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley US Research (e) estimates.
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Exhibit 12: TSMC's AI-related revenue 2024-29e CAGR could reach 60%
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
AI GPU and ASIC rental price tracker
Exhibit 13: AI GPU H100 per GPU per hour as of end-March
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 14: AI ASIC equivalent computing power - 16x Inferentia 2 per hour
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
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Exhibit 15: NVIDIA 5090 graphic cards pricing has rebounded recently, mainly in response to market expectations for price hikes and strong AI inference demand from China
Source: TaoBao, Morgan Stanley Research, various media (e.g., Vice, Jan. 3, 2026)
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Key Featured Reports on the AI Supply Chain
Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Cloud Capex Strength; More CoWoS Allocation for TPU (7 May 2026)
Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Addressing Questions on Nvidia GPU/LPU and Google TPU (9 Apr 2026)
Greater China Semiconductors: AI Supply Chain Tracker: Key Investor Feedback from GTC/ OFC (23 Mar 2026)
Asia Technology: AI Supply Chain: CPO and ASIC Dynamic Update (3 Mar 2026)
Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: CES implications, ASIC production, China AI chips (6 Jan 2026)
Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: TSMC CoWoS Expansion; ASIC Dynamics; Asia Field Trip (1 Dec 2025)
Foundation
Technology: Rise of the AI Agent - Global Implications (19 Apr 2026)
Global Technology: Supply-chain Reorientation (24 Jul 2025)
Global Technology: China - AI: The Sleeping Giant Awakens (13 May 2025)
Global Technology: AI Cloud Capex in the Spotlight (26 Feb 2025)
Global Semiconductors: AI ASIC 2.0: Potential winners (15 Dec 2024)
Global Technology: Global Technology - Dawn of the AI Smartphone Era: Edge AI - Apple Intelligence Fuels Innovation - More Charts, Fewer Words (17 Jul 2024)
Global Technology: AI PCs To Usher In The Next Leg Of PC Market Growth (21 May, 2024)
Key upstream AI supply chain companies
Tracking China's Semi Localization: Raising China AI GPU TAM on recent geopolitical dynamics (22 Jun 2026)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors: MCU: Supply tightness may drive prices up further (21 Jun 2026)
Greater China Semiconductors: Power Semis - Supply Driven Upcycle (18 Jun 2026)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors: Thoughts on Investor Concerns Regarding CPO (10 Jun 2026)
WinWay Technology Co Ltd: May sales came in better than feared; OW (9 Jun 2026)
MPI Corporation: Strong ASIC Ramp-up Drives May Sales; OW (9 Jun 2026)
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