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260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc

更新 2026-06-11

PDF 原檔:260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT)

Target price:

TWD2,122.00 (from TWD1,680.00)

Share price (10 Jun): TWD1,500.00 | Up/downside: +41.5%

Favourable revenue momentum ahead

  • We expect TUC to benefit from the favourable market environment…
  • … with the improving product mix being a key alpha
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lifting 12M TP to TWD2,122

What's new: We provide our latest view on TUC after it joined our Taiwan Corporate day. Overall, we believe the pricing environment remains favourable towards the CCL/PCB industry given the more conservative capacity expansion from 2025/2026 (vs. a 40-50% CAGR for AI server shipments). TUC plans to increase its capacity by 0.3m/0.3m/ 1.2m to reach 2.3m/2.6m (+13%)/3.8m (+46%) from 2025 to 2027 (year end). On top of this, we believe AMZN's Trainium 3 has ramped up from 2Q26, while TUC will start benefiting more from this project from 2H26 once the key PCB vendor leverages its Taiwan/Thailand plants to manufacture, which should act as key share-price catalyst, in our view.

What's the impact: Favourable pricing environment. As we highlighted in our previous note , glass fibre and copper prices from 2H25 to 1Q26 have increased more than 20% and 40%, respectively, which has triggered TUC to increase its ASPs by 20% and 40% (above M6/below M4) to reflect the cost material increase. The last key material (ie, resin) price also increased by c.3040% after the war began in February. We believe this would also lead another c.10% price hike from 2H26, which we didn't factor in our previous note. On top of it, we also underestimated TUC's capabilities to optimise its product mix given its current supply demand situation. While the low-end product (non-low loss) only accounted for 18% of total sales in 1Q26, we expect it consumed c.50% of product capacity (eg, square feet of CCL). By relocating its capacity from low-end product (eg, M2) to high-end product (M7-8), revenue per square feet could increase by 6-8x (based on our assumptions), which we underestimated earlier. As such, we further lift our 2026 revenue growth rate to 98% YoY (from 76% YoY last time), and believe half of the upward revision is driven by the 10% ASP hike assumption from resin and the other driven by product optimisation. Also, given the CCL capacity constraint, we believe TUC also doesn't prefer to manufacture low-end products for its clients considering the return difference. As such, we also expect that gross margin from low-end product would have more meaningful increase (than high-end product) for following quarters. Along with the product mix shift, this is the key reason why we lift our gross margin assumptions by 1.3-2pp over our forecast period.

What we recommend: We lift our 2026-28E EPS by 19-39% to reflect higher ASP hikes and improving product mix. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating and raise our 12-month TP to TWD2,122 (from TWD1,680), based on an unchanged target PER of 48x, applied to our 2H26-1H27E EPS. Downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for switches/AI servers; 2) market share loss to CCL peers; and 3) raw material shortages.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 1-2% above the Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to our higher confidence on revenue growth .

10 June 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Stacy Lin (886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 12.2 23.5 29.5
Net profit change 19 32.5 38.9
Core EPS (FD) change 19 32.5 38.9

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc_001
260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc_002
12-month range 208.00-1,705.00
Market cap (USDbn) 13.71
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 256.23
Shares outstanding (m) 289
Major shareholder Hsin Chung-Herng (4.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 60,034 99,614 147,736
Operating profit (m) 12,709 23,468 36,576
Net profit (m) 9,337 17,388 27,090
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 32.308 60.165 93.735
EPS change (%) 163.7 86.2 55.8
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 1.1 1.5 (9.6)
PER (x) 46.4 24.9 16.0
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 2.8 4.4
DPS 22.6 42.1 65.6
PBR (x) 17.9 12.2 8.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.8 18.3 11.7
ROE (%) 43.6 58.2 62.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

TUC: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 53,488 60,034 57,224 80,668 99,614 88,157 114,086 147,736 142,938
Diff (%) 12.2% 4.9% 23.5% 13.0% 29.5% 3.4%
Gross margin (%) 26.8% 28.1% 28.1% 28.6% 30.5% 30.5% 29.7% 31.7% 31.4%
Operating profit 10,579 12,709 12,236 17,470 23,468 21,483 25,967 36,576 38,842
Operating margin (%) 19.8% 21.2% 21.4% 21.7% 23.6% 24.4% 22.8% 24.8% 27.2%
Net profit 7,849 9,337 9,433 13,125 17,388 16,378 19,499 27,090 29,887
EPS (TWD) 27.16 32.31 31.97 45.41 60.17 59.25 67.47 93.74 103.68
Diff (%) 19.0% 1.1% 32.5% 1.5% 38.9% -9.6%

Source: Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

TUC: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 10,054 13,925 16,898 19,157 19,381 21,325 27,041 31,867 30,340 60,034 99,614 147,736
COGS -7,525 -10,071 -12,006 -13,537 -13,663 -14,955 -18,633 -21,949 -23,442 -43,139 -69,200 -100,859
Gross profit 2,529 3,854 4,892 5,620 5,719 6,369 8,407 9,918 6,898 16,895 30,413 46,877
Operating expenses -701 -971 -1,178 -1,336 -1,351 -1,487 -1,885 -2,222 -2,554 -4,186 -6,946 -10,301
Operating profit 1,828 2,883 3,714 4,284 4,367 4,883 6,522 7,696 4,344 12,709 23,468 36,576
Non-operating profit 46 13 11 10 9 8 6 7 175 80 30 32
Pre-tax profit 1,874 2,896 3,725 4,294 4,376 4,890 6,528 7,703 4,519 12,789 23,497 36,608
Net profit 1,260 2,143 2,757 3,177 3,238 3,619 4,831 5,700 3,409 9,337 17,388 27,090
Net EPS (TWD) 4.36 7.42 9.54 10.99 11.20 12.52 16.72 19.72 12.1 32.3 60.2 93.7
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 25.1% 27.7% 29.0% 29.3% 29.5% 29.9% 31.1% 31.1% 22.7% 28.1% 30.5% 31.7%
Operating margin 18.2% 20.7% 22.0% 22.4% 22.5% 22.9% 24.1% 24.2% 14.3% 21.2% 23.6% 24.8%
Pre-tax margin 18.6% 20.8% 22.0% 22.4% 22.6% 22.9% 24.1% 24.2% 14.9% 21.3% 23.6% 24.8%
Net margin 12.5% 15.4% 16.3% 16.6% 16.7% 17.0% 17.9% 17.9% 11.2% 15.6% 17.5% 18.3%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 58% 105% 110% 110% 93% 53% 60% 66% 32% 98% 66% 48%
Gross profit 65% 169% 155% 179% 126% 65% 72% 76% 29% 145% 80% 54%
Operating profit 95% 238% 193% 232% 139% 69% 76% 80% 30% 193% 85% 56%
Pre-tax profit 100% 245% 183% 201% 134% 69% 75% 79% 34% 183% 84% 56%
Net profit 88% 229% 175% 193% 157% 69% 75% 79% 31% 174% 86% 56%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 10% 39% 21% 13% 1% 10% 27% 18%
Gross profit 26% 52% 27% 15% 2% 11% 32% 18%
Operating profit 42% 58% 29% 15% 2% 12% 34% 18%
Pre-tax profit 31% 55% 29% 15% 2% 12% 34% 18%
Net profit 16% 70% 29% 15% 2% 12% 34% 18%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

TUC: 1-year forward PER bands

260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 10 June 2026

TUC: revenue breakdown by product

260610_6274_台耀_daiwa_tuc_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
HSD Low Loss 9,509 8,355 8,570 14,445 20,651 45,487 80,087 123,273
HSD Non Low Loss 9,932 7,174 4,885 5,241 5,582 6,784 8,176 9,261
Other Revenue 1,691 2,944 2,547 3,385 4,108 7,763 11,350 15,202
Total Revenue 21,132 18,472 16,003 23,070 30,340 60,034 99,614 147,736
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (16,702) (15,067) (12,844) (17,729) (23,442) (43,139) (69,200) (100,859)
SG&A (1,786) (1,597) (1,422) (1,668) (2,039) (605) 0 0
Other op.expenses (264) (311) (313) (342) (515) (3,581) (6,946) (10,301)
Operating profit 2,380 1,498 1,424 3,332 4,344 12,709 23,468 36,576
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (30) (29) (27) (52) (89) (116) (110) (108)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 63 152 153 98 264 196 139 140
Pre-tax profit 2,413 1,621 1,550 3,378 4,519 12,789 23,497 36,608
Tax (532) (360) (726) (773) (1,109) (3,452) (6,109) (9,518)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 1,881 1,261 823 2,604 3,409 9,337 17,388 27,090
Net profit (adjusted) 1,881 1,261 823 2,604 3,409 9,337 17,388 27,090
EPS (reported)(TWD) 7.010 4.687 3.049 9.561 12.135 32.308 60.165 93.735
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 7.010 4.687 3.049 9.561 12.135 32.308 60.165 93.735
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 7.014 4.687 3.052 9.573 12.250 32.308 60.165 93.735
DPS (TWD) 5.005 4.000 4.008 6.504 8.491 22.616 42.116 65.615
EBIT 2,380 1,498 1,424 3,332 4,344 12,709 23,468 36,576
EBITDA 2,819 1,960 1,885 3,784 4,803 13,347 24,201 37,419

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 2,413 1,621 1,550 3,378 4,519 12,789 23,497 36,608
Depreciation and amortisation 439 462 461 452 459 638 733 843
Tax paid (532) (360) (726) (773) (1,109) (3,452) (6,109) (9,518)
Change in working capital 4,224 (3,625) 1,136 5,588 13,451 25,807 42,895 32,474
Other operational CF items (5,033) 4,227 (1,300) (7,967) (16,724) (38,453) (56,933) (44,470)
Cash flow from operations 1,512 2,326 1,120 677 596 (2,671) 4,083 15,937
Capex (433) (381) (634) (1,196) (1,949) (2,774) (1,400) (1,400)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 3 0 (9) 4 8 6 7
Other investing CF items 1,702 1,054 389 75 (4,558) 1,675 0 0
Cash flow from investing 1,269 677 (244) (1,130) (6,502) (1,091) (1,394) (1,393)
Change in debt (9) (583) 531 (372) 4,141 3,209 4,569 3,977
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,574) (2,694) (2,153) (2,180) (3,594) (2,454) (6,536) (12,171)
Other financing CF items 1,402 1,333 (19) 3,927 4,341 375 0 0
Cash flow from financing (1,180) (1,944) (1,641) 1,376 4,888 1,131 (1,967) (8,195)
Forex effect/others (21) 115 (166) 399 (97) 508 427 393
Change in cash 1,580 1,173 (932) 1,322 (1,115) (2,123) 1,149 6,743
Free cash flow 1,079 1,945 486 (519) (1,353) (5,445) 2,683 14,537

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 10 June 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,582 6,814 5,657 7,037 10,602 6,786 7,935 14,678
Inventory 2,857 1,965 2,061 3,189 7,405 11,503 20,755 26,078
Accounts receivable 7,602 6,161 6,713 9,711 13,823 29,252 48,466 65,378
Other current assets 162 143 187 326 521 560 560 560
Total current assets 17,202 15,084 14,618 20,264 32,351 48,100 77,716 106,694
Fixed assets 4,743 4,671 4,793 5,614 7,386 9,557 10,224 10,781
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 5 8 9 0 4 21 15 8
Total assets 21,951 19,763 19,420 25,878 39,741 57,679 87,955 117,483
Short-term debt 447 2,237 603 962 2,141 2,481 2,599 2,745
Accounts payable 5,741 4,143 4,581 6,642 11,871 20,577 35,005 45,244
Other current liabilities 252 174 364 269 608 886 886 886
Total current liabilities 6,440 6,553 5,548 7,873 14,621 23,943 38,490 48,874
Long-term debt 3,521 1,146 2,106 3,449 6,304 9,193 13,643 17,475
Other non-current liabilities 252 205 187 219 203 314 314 314
Total liabilities 10,214 7,904 7,840 11,541 21,127 33,450 52,447 66,663
Share capital 2,689 2,692 2,712 2,760 2,887 2,888 2,888 2,888
Reserves/R.E./others 9,047 9,167 8,868 11,577 15,727 21,341 32,621 47,932
Shareholders' equity 11,737 11,858 11,580 14,337 18,614 24,229 35,508 50,820
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 21,951 19,763 19,420 25,878 39,741 57,679 87,955 117,483
EV 430,888 430,070 430,553 430,875 431,344 438,389 441,809 439,042
Net debt/(cash) (2,613) (3,431) (2,948) (2,626) (2,158) 4,888 8,307 5,541
BVPS (TWD) 43.735 44.063 42.875 52.635 66.255 83.837 122.866 175.847

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 17.1 (12.6) (13.4) 44.2 31.5 97.9 65.9 48.3
EBITDA (YoY) 5.8 (30.5) (3.8) 100.8 26.9 177.9 81.3 54.6
Operating profit (YoY) 4.7 (37.1) (4.9) 133.9 30.4 192.6 84.7 55.9
Net profit (YoY) 6.0 (32.9) (34.7) 216.3 30.9 173.9 86.2 55.8
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 5.1 (33.2) (34.9) 213.7 28.0 163.7 86.2 55.8
Gross-profit margin 21.0 18.4 19.7 23.2 22.7 28.1 30.5 31.7
EBITDA margin 13.3 10.6 11.8 16.4 15.8 22.2 24.3 25.3
Operating-profit margin 11.3 8.1 8.9 14.4 14.3 21.2 23.6 24.8
Net profit margin 8.9 6.8 5.1 11.3 11.2 15.6 17.5 18.3
ROAE 16.5 10.7 7.0 20.1 20.7 43.6 58.2 62.8
ROAA 9.1 6.0 4.2 11.5 10.4 19.2 23.9 26.4
ROCE 15.5 9.7 9.6 20.2 19.0 40.4 53.5 59.6
ROIC 21.2 13.3 8.9 25.3 23.3 40.7 47.6 54
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash 17.6 35.6 33.9 18.3
Effective tax rate 22.0 22.2 46.9 22.9 24.6 27.0 26 26
Accounts receivable (days) 114.3 136.0 146.8 129.9 141.6 130.9 142.4 140.6
Current ratio (x) 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 2 2.2
Net interest cover (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4
Net dividend payout 71.4 85.3 131.8 68.1 70.0 70.0 70 70
Free cash flow yield 0.2 0.4 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6 3.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (TUC) was established in 1974. In 2001, TUC started to provide its Mass Lamination service to customers. In Dec., 2003, TUC was officially listed in Taiwan OTC. In 2004, TUC established its Changshu plant in Jiangsu, China to satisfy customer demand in the Greater China area. TUC also provides its services globally from its network in Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea, USA and Germany.

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 10 June 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 TUC has diverse stakeholders with varying interests. The concerns of each stakeholder category differ. TUC's departments engage with stakeholders through various channels to ensure timely communication and understanding of the Company's operations. TUC also tracks stakeholder requests and expectations and responds promptly. The Company reports to the Board of Directors annually on its communication with key stakeholders.
G Capital management 1 TUC pays its dividend on a annual basis. In the past 5 years, it has managed its dividend payout well. We believe TUC will at least sustain its cash dividend payout in dollar terms over 2025-27E. We see its balance between investment and dividend as appropriate.
G Related party & transaction 2 TUC's sales to related parties were insignifacnt versus its total revenue. We see limited risk for TUC.
S Supply chain management 1 TUC audits Tier 1 suppliers for ESG compliance, requiring commitments on hazardous substance bans and human rights. Several supplier audits were completed with a 100% pass rate and no major violations.
S Data security 2 TUC operates an Information Security Office and implements training, audits, and ISO 27001- compliant systems. No security incidents disrupted operations, and 683 employees attended security training.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 6 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 10 June 2026

Daiwa