PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_緯創3231_20260717_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-20）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
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48KB | 真資料圖 | 季度銷售額（NT$mn）依產品線分解柱狀圖，1Q18–1Q26：NB/DT、Server/Storage、Datacenter、Smart Device、Other，近期 Server/Storage 與 Datacenter 大幅放大 |
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57KB | 真資料圖 | Sales／Opex（NT$mn 柱狀）+ GM％／OpM％（折線）年度趨勢，2010–2027E |
260717_ubs_wistron_003.png |
58KB | 真資料圖 | 緯創庫存金額（NT$mn 柱狀）與庫存天數（折線＋虛線趨勢），1Q19–1Q26，庫存天數呈上升趨勢 |
260717_ubs_wistron_004.png |
60KB | 真資料圖 | 緯創股價（面積圖）vs NTM P/E（折線）帶狀圖，Jul-04–2026，含平均 P/E 10x、+1SD 13x、-1SD 7x 參考線 |
260717_ubs_wistron_005.png |
47KB | 真資料圖 | 營運現金流／資本支出（NT$bn 柱狀）與 FCF/股利／股（NT$ 折線）年度圖，2010–2027E |
260717_ubs_wistron_006.png |
36KB | 真資料圖 | 緯創股價（面積圖）vs FWD EPS（折線，右軸）走勢圖，Jul-04–2026 |
260717_ubs_wistron_007.png |
97KB | 真資料圖 | 股價 vs 目標價階梯圖（2023-04–2026-07），下方彩帶標示評等區間變化（No Rating／Neutral／Buy） |
原始內容
First Read
Wistron
Q2 Preview: Further topline acceleration from AI servers
Q2 sales ahead on robust AI servers while notebooks lagged
We preview results expected in H1 August where we expect continued strong topline and outlook driven by upside to AI racks fuelled by Neo Clouds/AI Natives, start of CPU and Rubin racks from Q4, growth in servers/networking from a low base and work to qualify new customers for VR200. 2Q sales were above at +6% QoQ to NT$895.4bn, above prior UBS/Street +4%/+2% with Wistron-only sales (excluding Wiwynn) up 8% QoQ to NT$617.3bn also above UBS/Street +5%/+1%. We believe rack shipments ramped from further from 3.9k in Q1 to 4.3k in Q2, offsetting NBs -10% QoQ/-7% YoY decline to 5.5mn, lower than peers mild growth ahead of further memory inflation. We maintain our 2Q GM/OpM forecasts in-line with Street at 5.5%/3.5% to lift EPS from NT $3.59 to NT$3.65, above street NT$3.43.
Raising 2H estimates on stronger servers and start of CPU/VR platforms
Servers are ramping from 30% to 55% of sales on the back of higher NVIDIA racks, new CPU servers and VR200 from Q426. We estimate Wistron to ramp NVL72 racks from 8.2k to ~10k in H226 and also revise up VR200 from 0.5k to 1k in Q4 as its early customers ship faster its than peers customers shifting later into Q426, lifting our full year NVL72 from 16k to 18.5k. We also expect Wistron's NPI on Vera CPU racks to start from late Q3 to 2-3k units and NT$60bn in 2026. Its switch business with a large US networking OEM is also still on track for 10x growth in 2026.We keep more conservative on notebooks and model -16% QoQ unit decline in Q326 and -13% YoY for 2026.
Raising sales growth further with margins upside on new opportunities
We reflect the stronger rack ramp and rising price level for next gen hardware to lift our 2026/27 sales growth estimates from +67%/+44% YoY to +82%/+54% YoY to reach NT$3.988trn/NT$6.159trn, above Street +60%/+33%. On further mix to lower margin AMD/VR200 racks, we revise 2026E GM/OpM from 5.6%/3.7% to 5.5%/3.5% while Wistron-only OpM keeps to its 2.0% target. Our checks indicate Wistron making progress in customer diversification, with potential 4Q order wins from new customers and ongoing discussions with Neoclouds on direct business, supporting both revenue growth and margin expansion.
Maintain Buy and lift our price target to NT$225 on the upward revision
We lift our 2026E EPS from NT$15.5 to NT$17 reflecting strong 2H outlook and raise 2027E EPS from NT$21.5 to NT$25, above Street at NT$13.9/NT$18.0 respectively. We lift our PT from NT$215 to NT$225 based on 10x net debt adjusted '27E EPS (NT$15 net debt/share) given a weaker balance sheet than peers.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 867,057 | 1,049,256 | 2,186,523 | 3,987,833 | 6,158,816 | 8,016,836 | 9,358,475 | 10,784,128 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 27,390 | 38,979 | 78,553 | 140,369 | 198,815 | 247,037 | 283,938 | 324,867 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 11,617 | 17,021 | 27,689 | 52,994 | 78,602 | 107,651 | 128,568 | 150,979 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 4.14 | 5.97 | 9.22 | 16.85 | 25.00 | 34.24 | 40.89 | 48.01 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.80 | 5.50 | 9.00 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| Net (debt) / cash | (40,290) | (23,816) | (135,086) | (182,557) | (288,516) | (308,310) | (240,006) | (212,442) |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 17.5 | 22.9 | 28.3 | 32.1 | 31.7 | 29.3 | 28.3 | 27.7 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 6.9 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 19.0 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 16.2 | (3.4) | (43.5) | (8.7) | (25.0) | 1.1 | 41.8 | 18.4 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 3.3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 139.00 on 17-Jul-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Electric Components & Equipment
| 12-month rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| 12m price target | NT$225.00 Prior : NT$215.00 |
| Price (17 Jul 2026) | NT$139.00 |
| RIC: 3231.TW BBG: 3231 | TT |
Trading data and key metrics
| 52-wk range | NT$194.00-109.50 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$421b/US$13.0b |
| Shares o/s | 3,032m (ORD) |
| Free float | 92% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 53,393 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$8,375.6 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$248b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 1.8x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | 1.1x |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| From | To | %ch | Cons. | |
| 12/26E | 15.50 | 16.85 | 9 | 13.90 |
| 12/27E | 21.50 | 25.00 | 16 | 18.02 |
| 12/28E | 25.78 | 34.24 | 33 | 23.20 |
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Diana Chang
Analyst diana.chang@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7335
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
Figure 1: UBSe vs. VA Consensus Q126A-Q326E and 2025A-2027E
| Wistron | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA |
| Revenue - QoQ / YoY Gross profit - Gross margin Operating profit - OP margin Non-op profit Pre-tax profit Tax - Tax rate Minority Interest Net profit EPS (NT$) | 846,303 17.4% 44,094 5.2% 29,137 3.4% -5,630 23,508 -5,487 23% -8,390 9,631 3.06 | 895,443 5.8% 48,970 5.5% 31,047 3.5% -4,713 26,334 -6,395 24% -8,456 11,483 3.65 | 876,663 3.6% 48,640 5.5% 31,055 3.5% -4,946 26,109 -6,340 24% -8,456 11,313 3.59 | 858,771 1.5% 47,324 5.5% 30,169 3.5% -4,335 25,834 -6,199 24% -8,624 11,012 3.43 | 998,052 11.5% 56,467 5.7% 36,209 3.6% -3,791 32,418 -8,117 25% -10,440 13,862 4.41 | 897,059 2.3% 52,730 5.9% 34,407 3.8% -3,979 30,428 -7,618 25% -10,289 12,520 3.97 | 867,393 1.0% 51,275 5.9% 33,314 3.8% -4,181 29,134 -7,003 24% -10,329 11,801 3.67 | 2,186,523 108.4% 133,983 6.1% 78,553 3.6% -2,296 76,257 -18,485 24% -30,364 27,408 9.13 | 3,987,833 82.4% 217,338 5.5% 140,369 3.5% -17,856 122,512 -29,316 24% -39,743 53,454 17.00 | 3,646,928 66.8% 204,140 5.6% 133,249 3.7% -18,184 115,065 -27,552 24% -38,683 48,829 15.50 | 3,505,984 60.3% 198,181 5.7% 128,706 3.7% -18,192 110,513 -26,336 24% -39,129 44,830 13.94 | 6,158,816 54.4% 313,469 5.1% 198,815 3.2% -22,815 176,000 -42,182 24% -55,217 78,602 25.00 | 5,258,261 44.2% 276,659 5.3% 174,900 3.3% -21,949 152,951 -36,655 24% -48,578 67,718 21.50 | 4,649,730 32.6% 250,769 5.4% 160,494 3.5% -17,416 143,078 -34,401 24% -51,770 57,888 18.00 |
| Wistron Only | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E |
| (NT$m) | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA |
| Revenue - QoQ / YoY Gross profit - Gross margin Operating profit - OP margin | 569,795 617,290 33.0% 23,213 4.1% 11,679 2.0% | 8.3% 25,483 4.1% 12,094 2.0% | 597,659 4.9% 24,578 4.1% 12,015 2.0% | 575,302 1.0% 24,067 4.2% 11,031 1.9% | 664,030 7.6% 27,635 4.2% 12,889 1.9% | 565,828 -5.3% 24,192 4.3% 11,500 2.0% | 538,764 -6.4% 24,098 4.5% 10,760 2.0% | 1,235,859 55,529 4.5% 14,636 1.2% | 2,710,161 119.3% 110,950 4.1% 53,478 2.0% | 2,390,997 93.5% 99,685 4.2% 48,777 2.0% | 2,220,025 79.6% 95,487 4.3% 43,703 2.0% | 3,900,119 43.9% 154,095 4.0% 76,709 2.0% | 3,318,568 38.8% 132,252 4.0% 68,220 2.1% | 2,679,598 20.7% 110,569 4.1% 46,965 1.8% |
Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, UBS estimates; Note: Above EPS figures might differ from figures displayed on the cover page table due to slightly different calculations.
Figure 2: Wistron Key Operating Metrics
| Segment Totals (NT$mn) | Q126 | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notebook Shipment (k units) | 6,100 | 5,500 | 4,650 | 4,800 | 4,800 | 5,280 | 5,544 | 5,544 | 20,200 | 24,100 | 21,050 | 21,168 |
| Notebook ASP (US$) | $593 | $623 | $654 | $674 | $674 | $674 | $653 | $634 | $551 | $563 | $633 | $658 |
| Notebooks | $114,319 | $106,207 | $94,282 | $100,244 | $102,184 | $110,268 | $112,308 | $108,939 | $357,060 | $425,951 | $415,051 | $433,698 |
| QoQ (%) | -5% | -7% | -11% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 2% | -3% | ||||
| YoY (%) | 24% | 3% | -14% | -17% | -11% | 4% | 19% | 9% | 12% | 19% | -3% | 4% |
| Servers | $412,498 | $465,711 | $526,013 | $715,696 | $768,073 | $934,294 | $799,971 | $784,408 | $123,768 | $657,194 | $2,119,918 | $3,286,745 |
| QoQ (%) | 52% | 13% | 13% | 36% | 7% | 22% | -14% | -2% | ||||
| YoY (%) | 874% | 145% | 244% | 163% | 86% | 101% | 52% | 10% | 88% | 431% | 223% | 55% |
| Data Center Servers (Wiwynn) | $276,508 | $278,153 | $334,022 | $388,989 | $457,354 | $590,586 | $604,459 | $606,298 | $360,541 | $950,663 | $1,277,671 | $2,258,697 |
| QoQ (%) | -5% | 1% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 29% | 2% | 0% | ||||
| YoY (%) | 62% | 26% | 25% | 33% | 65% | 112% | 81% | 56% | 49% | 164% | 34% | 77% |
| Desktop | $16,332 | $18,261 | $15,531 | $13,553 | $17,967 | $19,317 | $15,803 | $13,266 | $59,498 | $58,273 | $63,676 | $66,352 |
| TV, Display, Devices, Services | $26,647 | $27,112 | $28,204 | $29,553 | $26,929 | $27,630 | $28,736 | $30,028 | $148,388 | $94,442 | $111,516 | $113,323 |
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | $846,303 | $895,443 | $998,052 | $1,248,035 | $1,372,506 | $1,682,094 | $1,561,277 | $1,542,939 | $1,049,256 | $2,186,523 | $3,987,833 | $6,158,816 |
| QoQ (%) | 17% | 6% | 11% | 25% | 10% | 23% | -7% | -1% | ||||
| YoY (%) | 144% | 62% | 76% | 73% | 62% | 88% | 56% | 24% | 21% | 108% | 82% | 54% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 3: Wistron Server Breakdown Assumptions
| Server Assumptions | Q126 | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGX Baseboard Units (K) | 95 $3,500 | 90 $3,500 | 90 $3,500 | 90 $4,025 | 95 $4,025 | 90 $4,025 | 90 $4,025 | 90 $4,629 | 442 $3,500 | 420 $3,500 | 365 $3,629 | 365 $4,174 |
| HGX ASP (US$) | $10,504 | $9,765 | $9,765 | $11,230 | $12,083 | $11,230 | $11,230 | $12,914 | $49,766 | $46,311 | $41,263 | $47,457 |
| HGX Sales (NT$mn) DGX System Units (K) DGX ASP (US$) | 11 $20,000 | 11 $20,000 | 11 $20,000 | 11 $20,000 | 11 $20,000 | 12 $20,000 | 12 $20,000 | 14 $20,000 | 36 $20,080 | 43 $20,021 | 45 $19,997 | 49 $20,000 |
| DGX Sales (NT$mn) Compute Board Units (K) | $6,859 175 $2,500 | $7,068 200 | $7,068 225 | $6,943 250 $2,500 | $7,077 250 $2,500 | $7,637 250 | $7,637 275 | $8,370 | $22,927 | $26,848 | $27,937 | $30,721 |
| Compute Board ASP (US$) Nvidia Compute Board Sales (NT$mn) | $13,821 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $19,375 | $2,500 | 275 $2,500 | 35 $2,555 | 350 | 850 | 1,050 | ||
| Nvidia CPU Rack ASP (US$) Nvidia CPU Rack Sales (NT$mn) | 3.9 | $15,500 | $17,438 0.5 | 2.0 $950,000 | $2,500 | $21,313 2.5 | $21,313 2.5 | $2,868 | $2,476 $27,201 | $2,498 | $2,500 $81,750 | |
| Nvidia CPU Rack Units (K) | $950,000 | 2.5 | $19,375 | 10.0 | ||||||||
| $14,725 | $58,900 | $19,750 | $950,000 | $66,133 | ||||||||
| $2,973,300 $366,783 5 $6,000 | 4.4 $3,050,000 $412,900 15 $6,000 $2,790 0.0 | 5.0 $3,023,000 $468,565 20 $6,000 $3,720 0.0 | 5.0 $623,100 33 $6,300 | $950,000 $75,050 4.5 | 2.5 | $73,625 4.2 45 | $73,625 4.0 $5,487,500 $680,450 45 $7,658 $10,682 0.3 | 0.1 $2,708,246 $4,343 | 5.9 $2,754,504 $508,436 3 $5,927 | 2.5 $950,000 $73,625 18.3 $3,288,102 $1,871,348 73 | $950,000 $295,925 18.0 $5,165,527 $2,896,311 165 | |
| Nvidia AI Server Rack Units (K) Nvidia AI Server Rack ASP (US$) Nvidia AI Server Rack Sales (NT$mn) AMD Compute Board Units (K) AMD Compute Board ASP (US$) AMD Compute Board Sales (NT$mn) AMD Server Rack Units (K) AMD Server Rack ASP (US$) AMD Server Rack Sales (NT$mn) Enterprise Server Sales (NT$mn) | $948 0.0 $0 $0 $10,965 $2,619 $412,498 | $0 $0 $12,713 $4,975 $465,711 | $3,000,000 $0 $13,984 $5,473 $540,738 16% | $6,445 0.3 $3,000,000 $27,900 $14,684 $6,020 | $4,020,000 $4,757,778 $676,556 35 $6,615 $7,316 0.3 $3,000,000 $23,700 $14,968 | $950,000 $73,625 5.3 $5,112,264 $839,945 40 $6,946 $8,613 0.3 $3,000,000 $23,250 $16,960 | $950,000 $5,371,429 $699,360 $7,293 $10,174 0.3 $23,250 $18,995 | $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $23,250 $18,615 | $43,429 $434 $123,768 | $558 0.0 $0 $44,537 | $6,114 $13,903 0.3 $2,985,793 $27,900 $52,346 | $7,164 $36,785 1.0 $3,000,000 $93,450 $69,537 $30,734 $3,582,670 |
| (NT$mn) QoQ (%) YoY (%) | 52% | 13% | 43% | 9% | 20% | -13% | -2% | |||||
| $774,596 | 62% | 11% | 234% | |||||||||
| Total Server Sales | $843,123 | $657,194 | ||||||||||
| Other (CSPs/Networkings) (NT$mn) | $8,013 $873,596 | $8,814 $858,033 | $3,303 | $19,087 | ||||||||
| $6,622 | $7,285 $1,007,919 | |||||||||||
| $2,193,543 | ||||||||||||
| 874% | ||||||||||||
| 145% | 254% | 185% | 116% | 88% | 431% | 63% | ||||||
| 104% | ||||||||||||
| %of Sales | 49% | 52% | 54% | 12% | 30% | 55% | 58% | |||||
| 62% | 61% | 60% | 56% | 56% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 4: DC/server leads the growth
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 6: Wistron Quarterly and Annual P&L
| Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) | Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) | 3231.TW 3,144.4 | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) | $139 $437,073 | $139 $437,073 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $984,619 | $867,057 | $1,049,256 | $2,186,523 | $3,987,833 | $6,158,816 |
| YoY Growth (%) | -11.9% | 21.0% | 108.4% | 82.4% | 54.4% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $69,729 | $68,983 | $84,091 | $133,983 | $217,338 | $313,469 |
| GM (%) | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $27,472 | $27,390 | $38,979 | $78,553 | $140,369 | $198,815 |
| OPM (%) | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $11,162 | $11,472 | $17,446 | $27,408 | $53,454 | $78,602 |
| EPS (NT$) | $4.01 | $4.09 | $6.12 | $9.13 | $17.00 | $25.00 |
| EPS growth (%) | 2% | 50% | 49% | 86% | 47% | |
| P/E (x) | 34.7 | 34.0 | 22.7 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 5.6 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| P/B (x) | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| ROE (%) | 9% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 16% |
| Quarters | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $567,805 | $720,941 | $846,303 | $895,443 | $998,052 | $1,248,035 |
| QoQ Growth (%) | 27.0% | 17.4% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 25.0% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $41,965 | $40,509 | $44,094 | $48,970 | $56,467 | $67,807 |
| GM (%) | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $27,142 | $25,474 | $29,137 | $31,047 | $36,209 | $43,975 |
| OPM (%) | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $7,406 | $8,167 | $9,631 | $11,483 | $13,862 | $18,477 |
| EPS (NT$) | $2.36 | $2.69 | $3.06 | $3.65 | $4.41 | $5.88 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 7: Wistron cash flow summary
| Annual (NT$mn) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $862,083 | $984,619 | $867,057 | $1,049,256 | $2,186,523 | $3,987,833 | $6,158,816 | $1,189,907 |
| Capital spending | $9,821 | $12,974 | $11,771 | $15,111 | $38,885 | $60,000 | $60,000 | $17,713 |
| Capex/revenue (%) | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Dep and amort | $9,225 | $11,475 | $12,345 | $11,246 | $12,938 | $18,651 | $26,320 | $11,446 |
| Depr/revenue (%) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| Operating cash flow | -$21,536 | $53,440 | $48,219 | $5,750 | -$105,810 | $23,865 | -$45,268 | -$3,987 |
| Free cash flow | -$31,357 | $40,466 | $36,448 | -$9,361 | -$144,695 | -$36,135 | -$105,268 | -$21,700 |
| FCF and Dividends | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
| FCF / share (NT$) | -$11.27 | $14.54 | $12.99 | -$3.29 | -$48.18 | -$11.49 | -$33.48 | -$7.04 |
| FCF / EV Yield (%) | -6.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | -1.9% | -30.0% | -7.5% | -21.8% | -4.5% |
| FCF Yield (%) | -8.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | -2.4% | -34.7% | -8.3% | -24.1% | -5.1% |
| Dividend/share (NT$) | $2.25 | $2.25 | $2.64 | $2.62 | $3.66 | $5.50 | $9.00 | $2.68 |
| Payout rate (%) | 92% | 72% | 70% | 65% | 90% | 90% | 99% | 78% |
| Dividend amount (NT$) | $6,258 | $6,257 | $7,401 | $7,462 | $10,997 | $17,294 | $28,300 | $7,675 |
| Pre-Dividend close (NT$) | $36.80 | $31.05 | $26.35 | $90.80 | $107.50 | $139.00 | $139.00 | |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 5: GMs dip as AI racks ramp
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 8: Inventory days rose in 1Q26
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 10: Wistron trading below its historical average P/E
Source: Company data, Eikon
Figure 12: UBS upside / downside / base case scenario
| New UBS | New UBS | Prior UBS | Prior UBS | Upside Case | Upside Case | Downside Case | Downside Case | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026E | 2027E | 2026 | 2027 | 2026E | 2027E | |
| Sales | $2,186,523 0.7% $133,983 | $3,987,833 82.4% $217,338 | $6,158,816 54.4% $313,469 | $3,646,928 67% $204,140 | $5,258,261 44% $276,659 | $4,107,468 88% $226,322 | $6,485,234 58% $336,958 | $3,190,266 46% $161,109 | $4,619,112 45% $212,006 |
| YoY Growth | |||||||||
| Gross Profit GM% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Opex | $55,430 | $76,969 | $114,655 | $70,891 | $101,759 | $78,124 | $117,693 | $69,272 | $100,323 |
| Op Profit | $78,553 | $140,369 | $198,815 | 133,249 | 174,900 | 148,199 | 219,265 | 91,837 | 111,684 |
| OpM% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Non-Op | ($2,296) | ($17,856) | ($22,815) | ($18,184) | ($21,949) | ($17,856) | ($22,815) | ($17,856) | ($22,815) |
| Pretax | $76,257 | $122,512 | $176,000 | $115,065 | $152,951 | $130,342 | $196,450 | $73,981 | $88,869 |
| Tax | ($18,485) | ($29,316) | ($42,182) | ($27,552) | ($36,655) | ($31,190) | ($47,083) | ($17,703) | ($21,299) |
| Tax Rate | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| Minority/other | ($30,364) | ($39,743) | ($55,217) | ($38,683) | ($48,578) | ($41,730) | ($57,977) | ($23,210) | ($26,232) |
| Net income | $27,408 | $53,454 | $78,602 | $48,829 | $67,718 | $57,423 | $91,389 | $33,068 | $41,338 |
| EPS | $9.13 | $17.00 | $25.00 | $15.50 | $21.50 | $18.26 | $29.06 | $10.52 | $13.15 |
| Shares | 3,003 | 3,144 | 3,144 | 3,150 | 3,150 | 3,144 | 3,144 | 3,144 | 3,144 |
| EPS vs. base case | 7.4% | 16.3% | -38.1% | -47.4% | |||||
| Current Price | $139 | 146.5 | |||||||
| P/E | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |||||
| Implied Share Price Upside/Downside | $225 62% | $215 | $291 109% | $118 -15% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 9: Capex rising for capacity ramps
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 11: Wistron share price largely in line with forward EPS expectations
Source: Company data, Eikon
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 61.9% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 4.0% |
| Forecast stock return | 65.8% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 59.5% |
Company Description
Wistron, the manufacturing arm of Acer, became an independent legal entity in 2001. Following the restructuring, Wistron broadened its customer base to include new customers such as Dell, HP and Lenovo. Wistron positioned itself as an original design manufacturing (ODM) company specialising in notebook and desktop PCs, among other IT-related products. In recent years, it has branched out to include smart devices, servers, GPS devices and LCD TVs in its product offerings.
UBS EPS and Consensus EPS
The UBS EPS is an adjusted diluted EPS metric. It is calculated using the UBS analyst's interpretation of earnings suitable for valuation purposes divided by the diluted number of shares. This may differ to the way the consensus EPS metric has been calculated.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We base our price target on PE methodology.
We believe key downside risks for Wistron are: 1) weaker-than-expected PC demand; 2) larger-than-expected market share losses due to intensified competition; 3) overall demand for the server business softer than expected; 4) weaker-than-expected production efficiency impairing margins; and 5) an unfavourable FX rate.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Wistron
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 17 July 2026 12:56 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.