PDF 原檔：報告_Macquarie_南亞1303_20261026_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-28）
2026-10-28 以可讀版 PDF 重新 parse 取代 10-26 掃描版（OCR）；圖片為重新抽出，皆 <40KB 但逐張 Read 核對。以下均為股價／評價／量化因子圖，不嵌 lib。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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28KB | 真資料圖 | 1303（藍線，左軸 0–600）相對 TAIEX（橘線，右軸）與 Price Target 綠點，約 2024-05 至 2026-10；2026 年下半年股價急升至約 300 以上。股價沿革圖，不嵌 |
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38KB | 真資料圖 | 南亞歷史本益比帶（NT$，2017–2027，標線 5x／9x／13x／17x／21x），紅線股價 2026 年急升至約 300、超過 13x 線。評價圖，不嵌 |
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30KB | 真資料圖 | 南亞歷史股價淨值比帶（NT$，2017–2027，標線 1x–5x），紅線 2026 年急升至約 300、超過 3x 線。評價圖，不嵌 |
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19KB | 真資料圖 | Macquarie Alpha 模型各家百分位長條圖（中鋼、台塑、台泥、台塑化、亞泥、台肥、南亞；5 年前／3 年前／1 年前／現在），南亞現在約 83%。量化圖，不嵌 |
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17KB | 真資料圖 | 1 年總報酬拆解（股利、本益比變動、預估盈餘變動）橫條圖，南亞約 100% 主要來自預估盈餘上修。量化圖，不嵌 |
報告_Macquarie_南亞1303_20261026_006.png |
21KB | 真資料圖 | Alpha 模型因子分解堆疊橫條（VALUE／PROFITABILITY／MOMENTUM／LOW RISK&LIQUIDITY 等）與同業比較，南亞動能正向、低風險負向。量化圖，不嵌 |
報告_Macquarie_南亞1303_20261026_007.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | 與 001 相同之 1303 相對 TAIEX 走勢圖（md 內未嵌入的重複抽圖）。不嵌 |
財務數字核對（2026-10-28，可讀版）：營收 259.9／344.8／483.4／666.2 十億元，EBIT 3.7／53.7／124.8／211.2，淨利 4.5／122.6／200.6／278.6，EPS 0.6／15.5／25.3／35.1，DPS 0.7／0.8／11.6／19.0，Q3/26A EPS 4.9、Q4/26E 5.4；與 10-27 OCR 版核對結果一致，lib 數字無需更動。
原始內容
Nan Ya Plastics
Mix upgrade accelerating
Key Points
- NPC reported Sep revenue up 55% YoY while net profit surged over 9x YoY to TWD35.1bn, with Sep DPS above 2Q26 DPS.
- ·We expect a rising high-end product contribution to accelerate Low Dk/ Low CTE glass fibre sales next year.
- Our industry checks suggest that CCL supply will remain tight due to glass fibre shortages.
- Upside to our 4Q26 forecast. NPC reported strong Sep earnings following a required disclosure on unusual share-price movements. Revenue rose 55% YoY to TWD34.4bn, while net profit surged over 9x to TWD35.1bn. Sep EPS reached TWD4.42, above 2Q26 quarterly EPS of TWD3.37. Mgmt attributed the strength mainly to electronic materials, including high-end CCL benefiting from AI demand. We estimate Sept EBIT at TWD8-9bn, ~45% of 3Q26 EBIT, implying upside to our TWD20.3bn 4Q EBIT estimate.
- Rising high-end CCL contribution in 2027/28. The company refuted market rumours that its M9 material had failed customer validation, noting that advanced CCL expansion remains on track, with new capacity fully dedicated to high-end products. We expect stronger growth in Low Dk/Low CTE glass fibres, with high-end products reaching 40% of the mix vs 10% this year as CSP orders ramp up next year. We also expect M9 CCL to pass validation in 1H27.
- Q-Cloth and PTFE not ready yet. Our checks at Taiwan TPCA Show 2026 with glass fibre and CCL players suggest demand is multiple times industry capacity, with glass-fibre supply the key bottleneck given long capacity and weaving-machine ramp-up times. As producers shift capacity towards Low Dk/T-Cloth, E-Cloth supply should remain tight. QCloth remains constrained by high costs and poor flexibility, while Low Dk glass fibre with HC Resin can deliver similar performance. PTFE is also unlikely to threaten glass fibre near term given its low mechanical strength.
Earnings changes: No changes.
Valuation: We maintain our NT$506.00 TP based on an unchanged 20x FY27E PER.
Catalysts: 2H26 high-end CCL ramp-up and capacity expansion, glass fibre capacity additions, and stronger equity-method earnings from 2027.
Investment Thesis and Recommendation
We expect high-end CCL qualifications, mix upgrades and utilisation gains to drive earnings growth, supported by recovering legacy businesses and higher associate earnings.
Chemicals Taiwan
Linda Huang, CFA
Becky Cai
1303 TT Price (at 26 Oct 2026) 12-month target 12-month TSR (%) Volatility Index Market Cap (Local) (m) Market Cap (USD) (m) Free Float (%) 30-day avg turnover (USD) (m)
Outperform TWD301.00 TWD506.00 72.0 Very High 2,387,177 73,195 87 728.2
Investment Fundamentals
| Year end 31 Dec | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 259.9 | 344.8 | 483.4 | 666.2 |
| Revenue growth (%) | 0.1 | 32.6 | 40.2 | 37.8 |
| EBIT (m) | 3.7 | 53.7 | 124.8 | 211.2 |
| EBIT growth (%) | 722.9 | 1,354.4 | 132.4 | 69.2 |
| Reported profit (m) | 4.5 | 122.6 | 200.6 | 278.6 |
| Adjusted profit (m) | 4.5 | 122.6 | 200.6 | 278.6 |
| EPS rep [TWD] | 0.6 | 15.5 | 25.3 | 35.1 |
| EPS rep growth (%) | 35.3 | 2,613.0 | 63.6 | 38.9 |
| EPS adj [TWD] | 0.6 | 15.5 | 25.3 | 35.1 |
| EPS adj growth (%) | 35.3 | 2,613.0 | 63.6 | 38.9 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 34.1 | 16.4 | 19.8 | 22.5 |
| ROA (%) | 0.6 | 7.6 | 14.3 | 20.4 |
| ROE (%) | 1.3 | 26.4 | 32.0 | 37.4 |
| PER rep (x) | 528.3 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 8.6 |
| PER adj (x) | 528.3 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 93.6 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| P/BV (x) | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| Total div yield (%) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| Quant (rank vs. global sector) | Quant (rank vs. global sector) | Quant (rank vs. global sector) | Quant (rank vs. global sector) | 129 / 1,034 |
1303 TT rel TAIEX performance, & rec history
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, Oct 2026 (all figures in TWD unless noted, TP in TWD)
Key Risks to Investment Thesis
- Slower-than-expected AI data centre capex.
- Delays in, or failure of, high-end CCL qualification.
- Weaker-than-expected ASP and utilisation ramp.
- Normalisation of Middle East EG supply
- Earnings volatility at Nan Ya Technology and Formosa Petrochemical.
Figure 1 - Nan Ya Plastics: Historical P/E band
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2026
Nan Ya Plastics (1303 TT) TWD/(m) unless otherwise noted
| Income Statement Dec FY | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Q3/26A | Q4/26E | Balance Sheet | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 259.9 | 344.8 | 483.4 | 666.2 | 95.6 | 96.9 | Cash | 46.1 | 55.0 | 39.2 | 17.1 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 238.3 | 272.7 | 336.6 | 429.0 | 72.6 | 71.9 | Receivables | 46.3 | 63.1 | 82.7 | 107.0 |
| Gross Profit | 21.6 | 72.0 | 146.8 | 237.2 | 23.0 | 25.0 | Inventories | 51.3 | 61.1 | 75.8 | 91.8 |
| EBITDA | 26.2 | 77.2 | 148.1 | 235.0 | 24.2 | 26.1 | Investments | 39.3 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| Depreciation | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.3 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | Fixed Assets | 206.5 | 208.3 | 209.9 | 220.4 |
| Amortisation | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Intangibles | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 3.7 | 53.7 | 124.8 | 211.2 | 18.3 | 20.3 | Other Assets | 221.1 | 359.5 | 488.0 | 627.5 |
| Net Interest Income | (2.5) | (2.7) | (2.8) | (4.2) | (0.7) | (0.7) | Total Assets | 610.6 | 801.1 | 949.7 | 1,118 |
| Associates | 0.4 | 92.0 | 120.6 | 131.1 | 29.1 | 31.7 | Payables | 37.6 | 49.1 | 62.8 | 76.7 |
| Exceptionals | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Short Term Debt | 93.6 | 66.8 | 91.8 | 116.8 |
| Forex Gains / Losses | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Long Term Debt | 79.3 | 82.4 | 82.4 | 82.4 |
| Other Pre-Tax Income | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Other Liabilities | 28.2 | 30.0 | 31.2 | 32.4 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 6.5 | 145.9 | 243.5 | 339.0 | 47.2 | 51.8 | Total Liabilities | 238.8 | 228.2 | 268.2 | 308.3 |
| Tax Expense | (1.4) | (19.5) | (36.5) | (50.8) | (7.1) | (7.8) | Shareholders' Funds | 309.5 | 419.4 | 528.0 | 656.2 |
| Net Profit | 5.1 | 126.4 | 207.0 | 288.2 | 40.1 | 44.1 | Minority Interests | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minority Interests | (0.5) | (3.8) | (6.4) | (9.6) | (1.3) | (1.3) | Other | 46.2 | 153.5 | 153.5 | 153.5 |
| Reported Earnings | 4.5 | 122.6 | 200.6 | 278.6 | 38.8 | 42.7 | Total S/H Equity | 371.8 | 572.9 | 681.5 | 809.6 |
| Adjusted Earnings | 4.5 | 122.6 | 200.6 | 278.6 | 38.8 | 42.7 | Total Liab & S/H Funds | 610.6 | 801.1 | 949.7 | 1,118 |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | Net Debt / Equity (%) | 34.1 | 16.4 | 19.8 | 22.5 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | Interest Cover (x) | 1.5 | 19.7 | 45.0 | 50.5 |
| EPS (rep) [TWD] | 0.6 | 15.5 | 25.3 | 35.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | ROE (%) | 1.3 | 26.4 | 32.0 | 37.4 |
| EPS (adj) [TWD] | 0.6 | 15.5 | 25.3 | 35.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | ROA (%) | 0.6 | 7.6 | 14.3 | 20.4 |
| Total DPS [TWD] | 0.7 | 0.8 | 11.6 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ROIC (%) | 0.6 | 9.3 | 15.9 | 22.0 |
| Ratio | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Cash Flow Analysis | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||
| Revenue Growth (%) | 0.1 | 32.6 | 40.2 | 37.8 | - | - | EBITDA | 26.2 | 77.2 | 148.1 | 235.0 |
| EBITDA Growth (%) | 13.2 | 194.5 | 91.9 | 58.7 | - | - | Tax Paid | (1.4) | (19.5) | (36.5) | (50.8) |
| EBIT Growth (%) | 722.9 | 1,354.4 | 132.4 | 69.2 | - | - | Chgs in Working Cap | 4.9 | 22.5 | 21.8 | 27.6 |
| EPS Growth (adj) (%) | 35.3 | 2,613.0 | 63.6 | 38.9 | - | - | Net Interest Paid | (2.5) | (2.7) | (2.8) | (4.2) |
| Gross Profit Margin (%) | 8.3 | 20.9 | 30.4 | 35.6 | - | - | Other | (18.7) | (44.8) | (54.6) | (69.9) |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 10.1 | 22.4 | 30.6 | 35.3 | - | - | Operating Cashflow | 8.6 | 32.6 | 76.0 | 137.7 |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 1.4 | 15.6 | 25.8 | 31.7 | - | - | Acquisitions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 1.7 | 35.6 | 41.5 | 41.8 | - | - | Capex | (11.3) | (17.7) | (24.9) | (34.3) |
| Payout Ratio (%) | 123.1 | 5.2 | 45.8 | 54.0 | - | - | Other | (0.0) | (6.6) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| PE (rep) (x) | 528.3 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 8.6 | - | - | Investing Cashflow | (11.3) | (24.3) | (24.9) | (34.3) |
| PE (adj) (x) | 528.3 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 8.6 | - | - | Dividend (Ordinary) | (5.6) | (6.3) | (91.9) | (150.4) |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 93.6 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | - | - | Equity Raised | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 608.0 | 17.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | - | - | Debt Movements | (8.6) | (24.0) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Price/Book (x) | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | - | - | Other | (2.6) | 27.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Div Yield (%) | 6.3 | - | - | Financing Cashflow | (16.8) | (2.7) | (66.9) | (125.4) | |||
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 | (19.4) | 5.7 | |||||||
| Net Chg in Cash/Debt | (15.8) | (22.1) | |||||||||
| Free Cashflow | (2.7) | 14.9 | 51.1 | 103.4 |
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research Oct 2026
Company Description
Nan Ya Plastics is a core member of the Formosa Plastics Group. The company operates four business lines, including plastics, chemicals, polyester, and electronic materials, across Taiwan, China, and the US. Nan Ya also holds equitymethod stakes in Nan Ya Technology (2408 TT) and Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT), and consolidates PCB exposure through Nan Ya PCB (8046 TT).
Figure 2 - Nan Ya Plastics: Historical P/B band
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2026
Key Quant Findings
The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on Nan Ya Plastics. The strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had strong medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA.
Macquarie Alpha Model: Key rankings
The Macquarie Quant's flagship Alpha model is a dynamic multi-factor model based on a staple of quant factors such as value, momentum, revisions, quality, and risk.
| Global Whole Universe | Market (Country) Taiwan | Sector Chemicals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie Alpha Model | 2699/18799 | 161/985 | 129/1034 |
| Fundamental (Consensus) * | 3759/18799 | 106/985 | 218/1034 |
- based on Total Shareholder Return = Consensus Price target / Current Price
Current and Historical Alpha Model Rank
The chart shows the Macquarie Alpha model market ranking against the company's peers and over recent history.
Drivers of Stock Return
Breakdown of 1-year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
Alpha Model Decomposition
The Macquarie Alpha is decomposed into its sector and market relative factor & styles exposures (a higher/better percentile is coded in green, whilst lower in red).
| Factors / Styles | Percentile relative to - sectors (/1034) | Percentile relative to - market (/985) | Core factors in definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHA | 88% | 84% | Built from the styles below |
| VALUE | 46% | 15% | Book, CF, Yield, Earnings Multiples |
| ANALYST | 83% | 94% | Revisions (Earnings, Recommendations) |
| MOMENTUM | 99% | 99% | Price Momentum |
| GROWTH | 100% | 100% | EPS, Sales (Forecast, Historic) |
| PROFITABILITY | 11% | 13% | ROE, Margin, Asset Turnover |
| QUALITY | 14% | 24% | Accruals, Earn Stability, Cash Conversion |
| CAPITAL | 67% | 34% | Investment/Capex, Net share issuance |
| LIQUIDITY | 34% | 42% | Size, Turnover, Analyst Coverage |
| LOW RISK | 5% | 3% | Beta, Volatility, Earn.Cert, Leverage |
| TECHNICAL | 0% | 1% | MACD, RSI, Bollinger, Williams R, etc |
Factors driving the Alpha Model vs peers
For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall raw Alpha score.
Macquarie Style Returns over last year
Recent performance to Macquarie style factors
| Asia Ex JP | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Sep - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Aug - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jul - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jun - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - May - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Apr - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Mar - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Feb - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jan - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Dec - 25 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Nov - 25 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Oct - 25 | Last 5 Years (ann) | Last 10 Years (ann) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHA | 5% | 6% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 7% |
| VALUE | 2% | 1% | 19% | -5% | 1% | -7% | 6% | 0% | -2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 5% |
| ANALYST | 1% | 14% | -12% | 7% | 4% | 12% | -2% | 0% | 6% | 5% | -2% | 3% | 16% | 14% |
| MOMENTUM | 1% | 14% | -35% | 15% | 17% | 19% | -4% | 5% | 8% | 6% | -1% | -2% | -1% | 4% |
| GROWTH | -3% | 8% | -19% | 9% | 7% | 7% | -4% | -1% | 4% | 2% | -2% | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| PROFITABILITY | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 1% | -4% | 3% | 0% | -4% | 1% | 3% | 0% | -2% | -2% |
| QUALITY | 2% | 0% | 7% | -3% | -2% | -4% | 2% | -1% | -4% | -1% | 1% | -4% | -4% | -2% |
| CAPITAL | 1% | -7% | 14% | -7% | -1% | -12% | 2% | -2% | 2% | -1% | 3% | -3% | 2% | -4% |
| LIQUIDITY | 2% | -1% | -11% | 8% | 10% | 7% | -1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% | -2% | 3% |
| LOW RISK | 5% | -13% | 29% | -6% | -8% | -13% | 6% | -2% | -8% | -2% | 5% | 1% | -7% | -7% |
Source (all charts): FactSet, Refinitiv, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative Team: maccapequitiesresearchquantglobal@macquarie.com. Explanation for items on this page can be found at https://www.macquarieinsights.com/rp/d/r/p/OTUyMzg1
Analysts
Linda Huang, CFA
852 3922 4068
linda.huang@macquarie.com
Macquarie Capital Limited