PDF 原檔：報告_MS_AMD3Q26法說對台供應鏈影響_20261104_original.pdf
原始內容
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Irene Yen Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m | +852 2239-7689 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update November 4, 2026 03:32 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Another key US CPU vendor's 3Q26 earnings call - key implications for o r coverage
Key Takeaways
- We cont nue to v ew negat ve PC comments as bear sh for OEMs and ODMs pos t oned n the lower-end consumer segment, l ke Acer and Compal.
- Strong server CPU un t growth from AMD would be pos t ve for Lotes, W wynn, Un m cron, and NYPCB...
- ...and nd rectly benef t GCE, EMC, TUC, and Co-Tech.
- We see pos t ve mpl cat ons for Lotes f AMD takes share n both the PC and Server segments.
(-) PC OEMs and ODMs: AMD (covered by Joseph Moore) ment oned that PC sellthrough slowed down n late 3Q, part cularly n the consumer segment, and that t est mates PC un ts w ll fall n double d g ts (%) n CY27. Th s al gns w th Morgan Stanley's est mate at a ~11% y/y decl ne (report l nk). AMD also ment oned that t expects to outgrow the market n CY27.
(+) Server OEMs, ODMs, and componen makers: AMD expects CPU TAM to reach US$220bn by 2030, mply ng a ~50% CAGR. It also ment oned that ts Ven ce CPU began sh pments n 3Q and cloud prov ders are deploy ng t n 4Q.
(+) ABF subs ra es: AMD sa d that t has secured the wafers, substrates, advanced packag ng, and memory needed for much h gher 2027 growth, and s plann ng to add more. It also ment oned that ts supply cha n s qu te "fung ble" across ts PC and server bus ness, but overall t st ll "has more demand than t has supply."
Exhibit 1: W rldwide PC Vend r Ranking, 3Q26
Worldwide PC Vendor Ranking, 3Q26
| Rank Vendor | 3Q26 Shipments | 3Q26 Market share | 2Q26 Shipments | 2Q26 Market share | 3Q25 Shipments | 3Q25 Market share | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lenovo | 14,933 | 23.8% | 16,659 | 24.2% | 19,305 | 24.6% | -10% | -23% |
| 2 HP | 10,344 | 16.5% | 13,016 | 18.9% | 14,975 | 19.1% | -21% | -31% |
| 3 Dell | 7,581 | 12.1% | 9,286 | 13.5% | 10,107 | 12.9% | -18% | -25% |
| 4 Apple | 5,946 | 9.5% | 7,162 | 10.4% | 6,702 | 8.5% | -17% | -11% |
| 5 ASUS | 5,459 | 8.7% | 4,995 | 7.2% | 5,974 | 7.6% | 9% | -9% |
| Others | 18,422 | 29.4% | 17,859 | 25.9% | 21,431 | 27.3% | 3% | -14% |
| Total | 62,685 | 68,977 | 78,495 | -9% | -20% |
S urce: IDC, M rgan Stanley Research.
M Update
Exhibit : M rgan Stanley's PC f recast
S urce: IDC, M rgan Stanley Research estimates (E) based n the MS Gl bal PC M del.
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (11/04/ 0 6) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Te hnologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$36.96 |
| A elink Te hnologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb98.23 |
| BYD Ele troni s (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$21.18 |
M Update M Update St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.
| China TransInfo Te hnology Co Ltd (002373.SZ) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb8.01 |
|---|---|---|
| Dahua Te hnology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb14.71 |
| Eoptolink Te hnology In Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb196.50 |
| Genius Ele troni Opti al Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | E (10/13/2026) | NT$939.00 |
| GoerTek In (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb23.63 |
| Gosun n Te hnology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.05 |
| HIKVision Digital Te hnology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb35.17 |
| Largan Pre ision (3008.TW) | O (10/13/2026) | NT$5,010.00 |
| LianChuang Ele troni Te hnology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.24 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb11.77 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$5.55 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$50.60 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb49.51 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.68 |
| Q Te hnology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.39 |
| Que tel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb74.00 |
| Shanghai Conant Opti al Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$35.64 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb58.76 |
| Sunny Opti al (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$63.80 |
| Suzhou TFC Opti al Communi ation Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb136.00 |
| Wingte h Te hnology Co Ltd (600745.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb11.97 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$28.76 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb271.50 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$109.80 |
| Yongxin Opti s Co Ltd (603297.SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb96.23 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Opte h Co Ltd (002273.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb23.50 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb533.38 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$667.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$20.26 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb28.56 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| A ton Te hnology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$1,480.00 |
| Advante h (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$629.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,050.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$2,820.00 |
| AU Optroni s (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$29.10 |
| Auras Te hnology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,300.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$1,570.00 |
| BOE Te hnology (000725.SZ) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb4.63 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$634.00 |
| Chroma Ate In . (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$1,470.00 |
| Delta Ele troni s In . (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,220.00 |
| E Ink Holdings In . (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$144.50 |
| Ennostar In (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$56.70 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,080.00 |
| Hiwin Te hnologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$302.50 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$40.90 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$8,600.00 |
| Lens Te hnology (300433.SZ) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb27.10 |
| Lite-On Te hnology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$226.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.68 |
| Tianma Mi roele troni s (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb5.69 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| A er In . (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$29.45 |
| Asustek Computer In . (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$877.00 |
| Cat her Te hnology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$186.50 |
|---|---|---|
| Compal Ele troni s (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$33.25 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$4,555.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$3.41 |
| Fox onn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb45.25 |
| Giga-Byte Te hnology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$324.50 |
| Gold Cir uit Ele troni s Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$964.00 |
| Hon Hai Pre ision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$240.00 |
| Inspur Ele troni Information (000977.SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb55.75 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$37.32 |
| LandMark Optoele troni s Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,100.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$20.84 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | O (10/27/2026) | NT$1,820.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,080.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$101.50 |
| Quanta Computer In . (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$302.50 |
| Shengyi Te hnology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb80.88 |
| Shennan Cir uits Co Ltd (002916.SZ) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb225.60 |
| Unimi ron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$888.00 |
| Visual Photoni s Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$384.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$176.00 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$1,785.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$449.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$433.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Te h Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$366.50 |
| Taiwan Union Te hnology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,115.00 |
- Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.
© 2026 Morgan Stanley
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-07）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_AMD3Q26法說對台供應鏈影響_20261104_001.png |
62KB | 真資料圖 | 全球 PC 出貨量（百萬台，柱狀 2004–2028E）與 YoY（折線）：2021 約 355、2026E 約 250（−14%）、2027E 約 222（−11%）、2028E 約 225（+2%） |