PDF 原檔：報告_MS_AI光通訊_20260525_original.pdf
原始內容
M May 25, 2026 08:56 AM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
AI Transceivers: t (Tau) Law provides solid support for exponential growth in industry demand
Key Takeaways
- We believe the "t (Tau) Law" is a fundamental theory supporting the exponential growth of the AI transceiver industry. We reiterate our positive view.
- t (Tau) Law is a framework introduced by Huawei to optimize signal delay (t) to boost transistor density, energy efficiency, and performance.
At ISCAS 2026 in Shanghai on May 25, Huawei introduced the "t (Tau) Law" - a timebased scaling principle for multi-layer electronic systems that aims to succeed Moore's Law as geometric scaling faces limitations. This approach optimizes a unified time constant (t) across all computing levels-from transistors to data centers-shifting focus from size reduction to overall system efficiency, including interconnects, signal integrity, power, and thermal management.
Under this new concept, Huawei has innovated "Logic Folding" - vertically stacking active layers for digital, analog, and memory circuits, which has achieved a 55% increase in transistor density and a 41% gain in power efficiency at a fixed process node.
At the AI cluster level, t Law, combined with technologies such as a unified memory semantic bus interconnect architecture, near-package optical Hi-ONE (in-package high-speed optoelectronic interconnects), and edge-to-surface 3D Folding, is projected to achieve more than a 100× increase in hardware integration by 2035.
Global AI Transceivers: Industry Demand Likely to be Even Stronger (14 May 2026)
Global Technology: AI Transceivers: Growth Dominates Disruption (26 Feb 2026)
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
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Betty Chen
Research Associate
Betty.H.Chen@morganstanley.com
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Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Sharon Shih
Equity Analyst
Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2865
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View
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