報告_MS_ABF載板供給_20260906

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_ABF載板供給_20260906_original.pdf

原始內容

M September 6, 2026 05:17 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

ABF Substrate: Risk to NYPCB and Unimicron ABF Supply Share?

Key Takeaways

• NYPCB's share price was down 12% in the past two trading days (vs. TAIEX up 0.8%).
• Investors have asked us if NYPCB would face share losses if Broadcom (AVGO, covered by Joe Moore) were to produce substrates on its own.
• Separately, we have been receiving questions from investors about the pricing outlook for BT substrate in 4Q.
• We see limited impact on our OW thesis for Unimicron and NYPCB, both of which produce BT substrates and are Broadcom's incumbent suppliers.

On the latest earnings call, Broadcom's CEO noted that the company is building substrate capacity in its Singapore factory with a partner. We believe he was referring to AST, the JV Broadcom has been developing with Toppan (7911.T, Not Covered) since March 2024 (news). This is Toppan's first overseas substrate plant, with phase 1 of the two-phase fab targeted to start production by EoY 2026. We see Broadcom securing FC-BGA substrate supply rather than bringing production inhouse, and therefore expect limited impact on the current supply positions of Unimicron and NYPCB.

On BT substrate pricing, the price hikes since 2H25 have been driven by raw material cost inflation, including T glass, gold and copper. We have expected T glass supply constraints to peak in 2026 and gradually ease from 2027 as more suppliers are qualified. Thus, it would not surprise us if raw-material-driven price hikes plateau going forward. That said, our OW thesis on Unimicron and NYPCB centers on ABF substrate tightness, so we see limited impact from BT price fluctuations on our ratings for both stocks.

Update

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View

In-Line

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
• n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
• n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition

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