PDF 原檔：報告_MS_面板價8月下旬_20260820_original.pdf
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65KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 「Asia Summer School 2026」廣告 banner（泳池照片），與內容無關 |
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24KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：TFT-LCD 電視面板價格趨勢指數（Jan-18～Jan-26），分 75" 4K／65" 4K／55" FHD／50" FHD／43" FHD／32" HD 六條線，2021 年中見頂後長期下滑至 30–60% 區間 |
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38KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：IT 面板價格 QoQ（4Q20–3Q26E），Monitor 與 NB 雙色柱狀；2022 年連續兩位數下跌後 2023 年起長期近乎持平，3Q26E 以紅框標示 |
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25KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 3：電視面板價格 QoQ（4Q20–3Q26E）柱狀圖，4Q21 最深跌約 -30%，2024 年後波動收斂，3Q26E 以紅框標示為小幅下跌 |
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41KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：面板廠產業平均稼動率（1Q18–3Q26E），3Q22 低點約 65%，2024 年起回到 78–84%，3Q26E 回升至約 86% |
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48KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：32" TV Open Cell 價格（US$）對友達股價（NT$，右軸），2010/1–2026/7；2026 年中友達股價急拉至約 28 元而面板價持平 |
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47KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8：32" TV Open Cell 價格（US$）對京東方 BOE 股價（RMB，右軸），2010/1–2025 年底 |
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45KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：32" TV Open Cell 價格（US$）對群創股價（NT$，右軸），2010/1–2026/7；2026 年中群創股價自約 10 元急拉至逾 60 元後回落 |
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46KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 9：32" TV Open Cell 價格（US$）對 TCL 股價（RMB，右軸），2010/1–2025 年底 |
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39KB | 未驗證 | <40KB 未逐張 Read（原文標為 Exhibit 10 GLW Display Volumes vs. Utilization），不得嵌入 lib |
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39KB | 未驗證 | <40KB 未逐張 Read（原文標為 Exhibit 11 GLW Display Revenue vs. Utilization），不得嵌入 lib |
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75KB | 文字卡 | MS 揭露附錄：某覆蓋標的股價與目標價歷史折線圖，紅色階梯標示目標價 18000→14000→…→16800→10000 |
原始內容
M August 20, 2026 03:05 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
TFT-LCD Panel Prices for Aug26: TVs -1%, Monitors and NBs Flat MoM
Risk /reward does not look attractive, as we retain the view that it is still premature to value panel stocks based on the potential glass opportunities in advanced packaging.
Key Takeaways
- Seasonal restocking helped narrowed the TV panel price decline in Aug, though we think rebates to big customers is a swing factor in panel makers' margin in 2H26
- IT panel prices stayed flat MoM in August and likely will in coming quarters.
- Buying panel stocks from the angle of glass adoption in advanced packaging does not seem attractive on risk-reward, in our view.
TV panel prices fell 1% MoM in August: Mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65" and 75" TV panel prices dropped 3%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, for the month of August. This is consistent with our expectations. While the overall TV demand remains lukewarm in 2H26 after restocking in 1H26, the sequential price decline has narrowed a bit this month vs last month, as the seasonal restocking demand for the year-end promotions started to emerge, and the component supply shortage and elevated component prices have made panel makers more reluctant on the benchmark price concessions. Nonetheless, we believe there might be some rebates offered to bigger customers, which could be a swing factor to panel makers' margins in 2H26. On a quarterly average basis, we expect TV panel prices to decline by lowsingle-digit % QoQ in 3Q26.
IT panel prices were flat in August: Monitor and notebook panel prices stayed flat MoM during the month. Both applications are seeing slower demand into 2H26 as brand customers pulled forward restocking into 1H26 amid concerns on the component supply. That said, panel makers are under pressure and insisted on relatively stable pricing. On a quarterly average basis, we expect IT panel prices to remain flat QoQ in 3Q26.
Risk/reward less attractive: We see current valuation fair after recent correction, particularly for Taiwan names AUO (2409.TW; 1.3x P/B) and Innolux (3481.TW; 1.6x P/B), as incremental contributions from advanced packaging are likely to take longer to materialize and there might be more competition in the mass production stage, as various companies in the display supply chain are devoting resources into this area. In China, we prefer BOE (000725.SZ; 1.6x P/B) over TCL (000100.SZ; 1.8x P/B) on its scale advantage and faster progress in glass core substrates.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst
Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2862
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
Shawn Kim
Equity Analyst
Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com
+44 20 7677-1018
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+
Ryan Kim
Equity Analyst
Ryan.G.Kim@morganstanley.com
+82 2 399-4939
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Vivi Huang
Research Associate
Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2860
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
| Asia Pacific Industry View | In-Line |
|---|---|
| S. Korea Technology | |
| Asia Pacific Industry View | Attractive |
Exhibit 1 : TFT-LCD TV Panel Price Trends
Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research
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