報告_MS_雲端半導體_20261102

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M Update November 2, 2026 01:07 AM GMT

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Cloud Semis: Growing Cloud Capex into 2027

Hyperscalers' spending remains strong so far, with further expansion signaled for 2027 amid C turning negative. Positive read for cloud semis (Aspeed and Montage).

Key Takeaways

• 2027 capex is highlighted: Microsoft, Google and Amazon flag higher spending; Meta remains committed to aggressive investment.
• Capacity constraints, not budget: Microsoft's delivery delays and Google's thirdparty computing usage point to infrastructure bottlenecks.
• Cloud semis: Constructive read-through so far. Sustained hyperscaler spending provides a favorable backdrop, with capacity additions raising demand.

2027 capex growth is highlighted: The Big Four hyperscalers' combined C3 capex was US$185bn, +90% Y/Y. CY2026 guidance stands at approximately US$170bn for Microsoft, US$195-205bn for Google, US$135-145bn for Meta, and US$220bn for Amazon. Google and Amazon maintained guidance; Meta raised its spending floor US$5bn. More importantly, Microsoft expects spending to accelerate in JanuaryJune 2027, Google anticipates a significant increase in 2027, and Amazon expects meaningfully higher spending. Meta also plans to keep investing aggressively.

Supply constraints remain the issue: Microsoft reported C3 26 capex of US $45.2bn and expects C4 spending >US$50bn, with some capacity deliveries shifting into 1H27. Google invested US$51.4bn and turned to third-party computing late in C3 to address supply constraints, with usage rising in C4 . Meta invested US$34.9bn, including finance lease principal payments; Amazon's cash capex reached US$75.9bn. Inference already contributes well over half of AWS AI revenue.

ebating monetization: Microsoft generated US$18.6bn of quarterly FCF and expects positive FCF in FY2027. Google, Meta, and Amazon reported negative quarterly FCF of US$9.1bn, US$2.1bn, and US$33.5bn, respectively. Google also flagged depreciation, data center operating costs, and third-party computing expenses as near-term cloud margin headwinds, alongside TPU inventory cash requirements. Management remains focused on attractive long-term returns.

Cloud semis: Constructive read-through. Sustained server investment supports Aspeed's and Montage's demand outlook; delayed capacity could shift revenue between quarters, but it's just a timing issue. Approximately 75% of Microsoft's C3 capex targeted short-lived assets, including CPUs, GPUs, and higher memory/storage costs, up from two-thirds mentioned before. Google allocated ~65% to servers and networking.

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Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

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