PDF 原檔：報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_001.png | 283KB | 真資料圖 | Parade 歷史 P/E 折線圖 2012–2026：平均 19.6x、+1 STD 26.4x、-1 STD 12.9x；近期約落在 14–16x |
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_002.png | 34KB | 真資料圖 | Risk Reward 圖：現價 NT$525，Bull NT$755（+43.81%）、Base NT$444（-15.43%）、Bear NT$288（-45.14%），目標日 2027/10 |
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_003.png | 16KB | 真資料圖 | 市場共識評等分布：Overweight 25%、Equal-weight 69%、Underweight 6%，標示 MS 評等位置在 Underweight |
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_004.png | 17KB | 真資料圖 | 營收地區曝險圓餅圖，圖例：Europe ex UK、Japan、North America 各 0–10%；APAC ex Japan／Mainland China／India 40–50%；Mainland China 40–50% |
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_005.png | 25KB | 真資料圖 | MS 估計 vs 共識 FY2026e：營收 15,683 vs 平均 17,328（區間上緣 18,131）；EBITDA 2,334 vs 3,320（3,821）；淨利 2,041 vs 2,607（2,821）；EPS 26.35 vs 33.19（35.66） |
| 報告_MS_譜瑞4966_3Q26_20261028_006.png | 64KB | 真資料圖 | MS 對 4966 的評等與目標價歷史（2023/10–2026）：階梯狀目標價線依序標示 822、1280、999、666、450 前後、747、888、780、570、530、1000、818，並以 E/A、O/A、U/A、U/I 標記評等變動 |
原始內容
M Idea October 28, 2026 05:16 PM GMT
Parade Technologies Ltd | Asia Pacific
Waiting for new business to bear fruit; cut to UW
| What's Changed Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO) | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$818.00 | NT$444.00 |
| Rating | Overweight | Underweight |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Weakens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Near-term NB weakness and lack of meaningful contribution from new businesses; downgrade to UW.
Key Takeaways
- Parade's margin recovery efforts are more than offset by weak NB demand.
- Ramp-up of ASIC-like business could be slower than we expected.
- Now trading at 17x our lowered 2027 EPS, which is still not attractive.
3Q26 earnings missed: Please see Exhibit 1.
4Q guidance reflects weak NB demand: Parade is guiding rev. to decline 24% Q/Q at mid-point, 2% below consensus. We overestimated the stability of demand from standard-plus customers, while demand from standard customers remains very weak, as expected. Based on the current demand outlook into 1Q27, it is difficult to see a V-shaped recovery. That said, we appreciate Parade's supply chain management and its ability to pass cost pressures on to customers. We see Parade's TTED business offering LT opportunities amid PCB price hikes.
New business ramp c uld take time: We previously modelled the company's ASIClike business contributing 15-20% of revenue in 2027-28. Given the complexity of the chip design and weak DT demand, we believe we were too optimistic. As for the TTED business, the company expects shipments to exceed 5mn units in 2026, which could account for ~8% of 2026 revenue. The company expects NB shipments to remain similar in 2027 vs. 2026, subject to DRAM pricing. Currently, we do not expect DRAM pricing to decline meaningfully.
D uble d wngrade t UW; PT NT$444: We cut our earnings forecasts mainly to reflect weaker 4Q guidance and a lower contribution from the ASIC-like business. We lowered 2026/27/28e earnings by 14%/ 9%/4 %. The company is now trading at 17x 2027e EPS. We like Parade's long-term growth potential but would need to see a meaningful resumption in business growth to turn more positive. (continued on the next page)
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Daniel Yen, CFA
Equity Analyst Dani l.Y n@morganstanl y.com
Charlie Chan
Equity Analyst Charli .Chan@morganstanl y.com
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Daisy Dai, CFA
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2863
+886 2 2730-1725
+852 2848-7310
Ethan Jia
R s arch Associat Ethan.Jia@morganstanl y.com
+852 3963-2287
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Parade Technologies Ltd(49 .TWO, 49 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Underweight |
|---|---|
| Industry iew | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$444.00 |
| Up/downside to price target ( ) | (15) |
| Shr price, close (Oct 28, 2026) | NT$525.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$929.00-463.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 77 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$40,575 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$819 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12 25 | 12 26e | 12 27e | 12 28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 34.67 | 26.35 | 30.92 | 33.20 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 30.34 | 43.14 | 50.33 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 35.26 | 33.19 | 40.98 | 53.08 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 16,531 | 15,683 | 16,212 | 16,982 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 3,482 | 2,334 | 2,742 | 2,941 |
| P/E | 17.1 | 19.9 | 17.0 | 15.8 |
| P/BV | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| ROE ( ) | 12.2 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Div yld ( ) | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
- e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
- Modest shortfall Modest revision lower Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month
consensus EPS
M Idea
3Q26 earnings review: Q revenue was NT$4.2bn, -2% Q/Q, -4% Y/Y, and 4% above MSe; Q GM was 40. %, flattish Q/Q, -2.2ppt Y/Y and 2. ppt below MSe; Q EPS was NT$7.67, flat Q/Q, -27% Y/Y and 6% below MSe. Weaker 2H26 demand has been due to OEM pullins in 1H, compressed consumer demand due to price hikes, and compressed enterprise budgets due to allocation to AI spending.
Exhibit 1: 3Q26 arnings r vi w
| P/L Comparison - (NT$ mn) | 3Q26 Results - 3Q25 | 3Q26 Results - 2Q26 | 3Q26 Results - 3Q26 | 3Q26 Results - Q/Q | 3Q26 Results - YIY | 3Q26 Results - Mse | 3Q26 Results - Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 4,377 | 4,249 | 4,185 | -2% | -4% | 4,038 | 4% |
| Gross profit | 1,860 | 1,708 | 1,686 | -1% | %6- | 1,718 | -2% |
| Operating profit | 812 | 596 | 567 | %5- | -30% | 644 | -12% |
| Pretax profit | 881 | 646 | 617 | -4% | -30% | 702 | -12% |
| Net profit | 816 | 593 | 591 | 0% | -28% | 638 | -7% |
| Diluted EPS (NT$) | 10.45 | 7.66 | 7.67 | 0% | -27% | 8.17 | -6% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 42.5% | 40.2% | 40.3% | 0.1 ppt | -2.2 ppt | 42.5% | -2.3 ppt |
| Operating margin | 18.6% | 14.0% | 13.5% | -0.5 ppt | -5.0 ppt | 15.9% | -2.4 ppt |
| Pretax margin | 20.1% | 15.2% | 14.7% | -0.4 ppt | -5.4 ppt | 17.4% | -2.6 ppt |
| Net profit margin | 18.6% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 0.2 ppt | -4.5 ppt | 15.8% | -1.7 ppt |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s
Why it's n t t late t d wngrade n w: The weak 4Q26 outlook lowers the earnings base, while visibility on a sustained recovery remains limited. With NB shipments expected to remain broadly flat in 2027, TTED growth and initial ASIC-like contributions may be insufficient to offset weakness in the core business. The risk of prolonged earnings pressure and a slower-than-expected ramp in new businesses supports our more cautious view beyond the near-term reset.
M Idea
Parade: Earnings Estimate Revisions
We cut ur EPS estimates by 13%/28%/34% f r 2026/27/28: We factor in the actual Q results, the lower 4Q guidance than we had expected, and the delays ramping up the new business.
Exhibit 2: Parad : Summary of stimat r visions
| NT$mn | Current 2026E | Previous 2026E | Diff. | Current 2027E | Previous 2027E | Diff. | 2028E | Current Previous 2028E | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 15,683 | 15,865 | -1% | 16,212 | 18,478 | -12% | 16,982 | 20,064 | -15% |
| COGS | 9,303 | 9,215 | 9,349 | 10,597 | 9,794 | 11,400 | |||
| Gross profit | 6,380 | 6,650 | -4% | 6,863 | 7,881 | -13% | 7,188 | 8,665 | -17% |
| Operating expenses | 4,368 | 4,259 | 4,449 | 4,406 | 4,582 | 4,572 | |||
| Operating profit | 2,012 | 2,390 | -16% | 2,414 | 3,475 | -31% | 2,606 | 4,092 | -36% |
| Non-op. income (exp.) | 192 | 216 | 199 | 230 | 199 | 230 | |||
| Pretax Income | 2,204 | 2,606 | -15% | 2,613 | 3,705 | -29% | 2,805 | 4,322 | -35% |
| Taxes | 163 | 235 | 235 | 333 | 252 | 389 | |||
| Net income | 2,041 | 2,371 | -14% | 2,377 | 3,371 | -29% | 2,552 | 3,933 | -35% |
| Reported Diluted EPS | 26.35 | 30.34 | -13% | 30.92 | 43.14 | -28% | 33.20 | 50.33 | -34% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 40.7% | 41.9% | -1 ppt | 42.3% | 42.7% | 0p 0 | 42.3% | 43.2% | -1 ppt |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 15.1% | -2 ppt | 14.9% | 18.8% | -4 ppt | 15.3% | 20.4% | -5 ppt |
| Pretax margin | 14.1% | 16.4% | -2 ppt | 16.1% | 20.0% | -4 ppt | 16.5% | 21.5% | -5 ppt |
| Net margin | 13.0% | 14.9% | -2 ppt | 14.7% | 18.2% | -4 ppt | 15.0% | 19.6% | -5 ppt |
Sourc : Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s
Exhibit 3: Quart rly arnings summary
| NT$ in million | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 1Q28E | 2Q28E | 3Q28E | 4Q28E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues Sequential Change Change vs Year Ago | 4,152 0%8% 88% | 4,114 -0%% 5.2% | 4,377 6.4% -0.5% | 3,888 -11.2% -5.6% | 3,990 2.6% -399%% | 4,249 6.5% 3.3% | 4,185 -1.5% -.% | 3,259 -22.1% -16.2% | 3,586 10.1% -10.1% | 3,808 6.2% -10.4% | 4,467 17.3% 6.7% | 4,350 -2.6% 33.5% | 4,207 -3.3% 17.3% | 4,183 -0.6% %8% | 4,446 6.3% -0.5% | 4,145 -6.8% .7% | 16,531 1.8% | 15,683 -5.1% | 16,212 3.4% | 16,982 4.8% |
| Cost of Sales Percent of Revenues | 2,385 57% | 2,341 57% | 2,517 57% | 2,254 58% | 2,382 %09 | 2,541 %09 | 2,499 %09 | 1,881 58% | 2,068 58% | 2,196 58% | 2,573 58% | 2,512 58% | 2,425 58% | 2,413 58% | 2,561 58% | 2,395 58% | 9,496 57% | 9,303 59% | 9,349 58% | 9,794 |
| Gross Margin Percent of Revenues Incremental Margin | 1,767 42.6% 91% | 1,774 43.1% NM | 1,860 42.5% | 1,634 42.0% NM | 1,608 40.3% -9% | 1,708 40.2% | 1,686 40.3% NM | 1,378 42.3% NM | 1,519 42.3% 43% | 1,612 42.3% | 1,893 42.4% 43% | 1,838 42.3% NM | 1,782 42.4% NM | 1,771 42.3% NM | 1,885 42.4% | 1,750 42.2% | 7,035 42.6% | 6,380 40.7% NM | 6,863 42.3% 91% | 58% 7,188 42.3% 42% |
| Total Opex Percent of Revenues | 1,110 26.7% | 1,065 25.9% | 33% 1,048 | 1,103 28.4% | 1,068 26.8% | 39% 1,112 26.2% | 1,119 26.7% | 1,069 32.8% | 1,087 30.3% | 42% 1,099 28.9% | 1,135 25.4% | 1,128 25.9% | 1,140 27.1% | 1,139 27.2% | %40 1,153 25.9% | NM 1,149 27.7% | 469% 4,326 | 4,368 27.9% | 4,449 27.4% | 4,582 27.0% |
| R&D Percent of Revenues | 744 199% | 723 17.6% | 23.9% 700 | 742 19.1% | 728 18.3% | 749 17.6% | 748 17.9% | 748 23.0% | 748 20.9% | 748 19.6% | 748 16.8% | 748 | 768 18.3% | 768 18.4% | 768 17.3% | 780 18.8% | 26.2% 2,910 17.6% | 2,974 19.0% | 2,993 18.5% | 3,084 |
| General & administrative | 156 | 143 3.5% | 16.0% 134 | 136 | 136 3.4% | 146 3.4% | 143 3.4% | 143 4.4% | 143 | 143 | 143 3.2% | 17.2% 143 | 143 3.4% | 143 3.4% | 143 32% 243 | 143 3.4% 226 | 569 3.4% | 567 3.6% | 571 3.5% | 18.2% 571 |
| Percent of Revenues Selling & marketing | 3.7% 210 5.1% | 199 4.8% | 3.1% 213 4.9% | 3.5% 225 5.8% | 203 5.1% 540 | 218 5.1% 596 | 228 5.5% | 178 5.5% | 4.0% 196 | 3.7% 208 | 244 5.5% | 3.3% 237 5.5% | 230 5.5% | 228 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% 601 | 847 5.1% | 827 5.3% | 884 5.5% | 3.4% 926 5.5% |
| Percent of Revenues Operating Income Percent of Revenues | 657 | 709 | 812 | 531 13.7% | 13.5% -17.9% | 14.0% -15.9% | 567 13.5% | 309 95% | 5.5% 432 | 5.5% 513 | 759 | 710 | 642 | 632 15.1% | 732 16.5% | 14.5% | 2,709 16.4% | 2,012 12.8% | 2,414 | 2,606 |
| Change vs Year Ago | 15.8% 25.7% | 17.2% 38.7% 69 | 18.6% %8% 69 | -20.1% 65 | 42 | 50 | -30.2% 50 | -41.8% 50 | 12.0% -20.0% | 13.5% 13.8% | 17.0% 33.8% 50 | 16.3% 129.5% 50 | 15.3% 48.5% 50 | 23.0% 50 | -3.5% 50 | -15.3% 50 | 10% 273 | -9% 192 | 14.9% 20% 199 | 15.3% %8 199 |
| Total Non-operating Income(Loss Profit Before Taxes | 71 728 | 777 19% | 881 20% | 596 15% | 582 | 646 | 617 | 359 | 50 482 | 50 563 | 808 | 759 | 691 16% | 681 | 781 | 651 | 2,982 18% | 2,204 14% | 2,613 16% | 2,805 |
| Percent of Revenues | 18% | 75 | 66 | 51 | 15% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 18% 73 | 17% 68 | 62 | 16% 61 | 18% 70 | 16% 59 | 163 | 235 | 17% | |
| Taxes Tax Rate Net Income, Cont Ops | 64 8.8% 664 | 9.6% 702 17% | 74% 816 19% | 8.6% 544 14% | 53 9.1% 529 | 52 8.1% 593 | 26 4.2% | 32 9.0% 327 | 43 9.0% 438 | 51 9%0% 512 | 9.0% 736 16% | 9.0% 691 16% | 9.0% 629 15% | 9.0% 620 15% | 9.0% 711 16% | 9.0% 592 14% | 256 8.6% 2,727 16% | 74% 2,041 | 9.0% 2,377 | 252 9.0% 2,552 |
| Percent of Revenues Reported Income (TW GAAP) | 169% 664 | 702 17% | 816 19% | 544 | 13% 529 | 14% 593 | 591 14% 591 | 10% 327 | 12% 438 12% | 13% 512 | 736 16% | 691 16% | 629 15% | 620 15% | 711 16% | 592 14% | 2,727 16% | 13% 2,041 13% -5% | 15% 2,377 15% | 15% 2,552 15% |
| Percent of Revenues Change vs Year Ago Reported EPS (NTS, TW GAAF Change vs Year Ago | 16% %0 8.38 16% | %0 8.95 25% | %0 10.45 %6 | 14% %0 6.89 -20% | 13% %0 6.77 -19% | 14% %0 7.66 -14% | 14% %0 7.67 -27% | 10% %0 4.25 -38% | %0 5.70 -16% | 13% %0 6.67 13% | %0 9.57 25% | %0 8.99 112% | %0 8.18 %40 | %0 8.06 2% | %0 9.25 -% | %0 7.70 -14% | 5% 34.67 7% | 26.35 -24% | 17% 30.92 17% | 7% 33.20 7% |
Sourc : Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s M Idea
Parade: aluation Methodology
We cut ur price target fr m NT$818 t NT$444: Our price target is our base case scenario value, which we continue to derive from a residual income model. Our bull and bear case scenario values are cut from NT$948 to NT$755, and from NT$418 to NT$288, respectively.
Intermediate growth cut to 9.4% from 11.4% to reflect slower ramp up of new businesses. Other key RI assumptions are unchanged:
- 9.8% cost of equity (beta 1. , risk-free rate 2% and risk premium 6%)
- Payout ratio of 50%
- Terminal growth rate of 4.0%
Exhibit 4: Parad : R sidual incom mod l
| NT$million | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 2034E | 2035E | 2036E | 2037E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Equity | 22,780 | 24,151 | 25,523 | 27,059 | 28,740 | 30,580 | 32,593 | 34,796 | 37,206 | 39,844 | 42,731 | 45,890 |
| Net Profit | 2,041 | 2,377 | 2,552 | 2,793 | 3,056 | 3,345 | 3,660 | 4,005 | 4,383 | 4,796 | 5,248 | 5,743 |
| ROAE | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| Residual Income | (151) | 80 | 120 | 215 | 318 | 430 | 553 | 687 | 833 | 993 | 1,168 | 1,360 |
| Spread | -0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Ending Equity Capital | 22,780 | |||||||||||
| PV of Forecast Period | 2,780 | |||||||||||
| PV of Continuing Value | 8,765 | |||||||||||
| Equity Value | 34,325 | |||||||||||
| No. of Shares | 77 | |||||||||||
| Projected Price | 444 |
Sourc : Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s
M Idea
Parade: Relative aluation
Parade stock is trading at 17x our new 2026 EPS estimate, which we still consider unattractive vs. its historical average of 19.6x since 2012, given near-term demand weakness and delays in the new business ramp-up.
Exhibit 5: Parad : Historical P/E
Sourc : FactS t, Morgan Stanl y R s arch M Idea
Risk Reward - Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO) Risk Reward - Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO)
Waiting for new business to bear fruit
NT$444.00 PRICE TARGET
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity (beta 1.3, risk-free rate 2%, risk premium 6%) of 9.8%, medium-term growth rate of 9.4%, and terminal growth rate of 4.0%.
Consensus Price Target Distribution
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
UNDERWEIGHT THESIS
- ▪2H26 PC demand is weak, due to 1H26 pull-in, compressed consumer demand and compressed enterprise budget. Parade now has 90% revenue exposure to PCs. It's difficult to see a V-shaped recovery into 1Q27.
- ▪For DisplayPort, low-end panel price competition should get worse before it gets better; the company is leveraging a high-end strategy to differentiate its products.
- ▪For high-speed interface, Parade seeks to expand beyond the NB market to the data center and automotive markets.
- ▪It could take time to see new business (ASIC, TTED) ramp.
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Risk Reward Themes
Secular Growth:
Negative
Technology Diffusion: Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
24x 2027e P/E
We expect: 1) significant share gain in the chipset market; 2) T-Con sales to grow 10% Y/Y in 2027; 3) high-speed interface to rise 10% in 2027; 4) overall gross margin of 45%+ in 2027-28.
14x 2027e P/E
We expect: 1) chipset ramp up delays; 2) TCon sales to grow 1% Y/Y in 2027; 3) highspeed interface to remain flattish in 2027; 4) overall gross margin of ~42% in 2027-28.
9x 2027e P/E
We expect: 1) no share gain in the chipset market; 2) T-Con sales to drop 20% Y/Y in 2027; 3) high-speed interface to drop 10% in 2027; 4) overall gross margin of ~40% in 2027-28.
NT$288.00
NT$755.00
NT$444.00
M Idea
Risk Reward - Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers - T-Con revenue (NT$, mn) | Dec 2025 - 6,396 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 5,497 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 5,534 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 5,593 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High speed interface revenue (NT$, mn) | 7,662 | 8,095 | 8,111 | 7,835 |
| Driver IC revenue (NT$, mn) | 1,980 | 1,258 | 1,094 | 1,069 |
| Touch IC revenue (NT$, mn) | 546 | 840 | 719 | 642 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- eDP Tcon shipments and spec upgrades
- HDMI jitter cleaning shipments
- USB and PCI-e repeater shipments
- USB-C DP/HDMI shipments
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
View explanation of regional hierarchies here
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Faster-than-expected launch of next-gen server platform
- Easing of US tariffs
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- Intensifying competition in high-speed interface area for converters, switches, and redrivers/retimers
- Slower-than-expected launch of next-gen server platform
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active
78.5%
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Morgan Stanley Estimates
Mean
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Idea
Parade: Financial Summary
Exhibit 6: Parad : Financial Summary
| Income Statement NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 16,531 | 15,683 | 16,212 | 16,982 |
| COGS | (9,496) | (9,303) | (9,349) | (9,794) |
| Gross profit | 7,035 | 6,380 | 6,863 | 7,188 |
| Operating expenses | (4,326) | (4,368) | (4,449) | (4,582) |
| Operating income | 2,709 | 2,012 | 2,414 | 2,606 |
| Non-operating income | 273 | 192 | 199 | 199 |
| Pre-tax income | 2,982 | 2,204 | 2,613 | 2,805 |
| Income tax | 256 | 163 | 235 | 252 |
| Reported net Income | 2,727 | 2,041 | 2,377 | 2,552 |
| Adj.wtd.avg.shrs( m) | 80 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Reported EPS (NT$) | 34.67 | 26.35 | 30.92 | 33.20 |
Balance Sheet
| NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10,900 | 11,736 | 13,030 | 14,194 |
| Mkt Securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AR/NR | 1,858 | 1,623 | 1,678 | 1,758 |
| Inventory | 3,622 | 3,725 | 3,743 | 3,922 |
| Other | 589 | 589 | 589 | 589 |
| Current Assets | 16,969 | 17,673 | 19,041 | 20,463 |
| Long-term investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fixed assets | 298 | 308 | 318 | 328 |
| Deferred assets | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 |
| Other assets | 8,363 | 8,363 | 8,363 | 8,363 |
| Total Assets | 25,956 | 26,671 | 28,048 | 29,480 |
| S/T borrowings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| APINP | 1,240 | 1,255 | 1,261 | 1,321 |
| Other ST liabilities | 2,381 | 2,381 | 2,381 | 2,381 |
| LT dbt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other LT liabilities | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 |
| Common shares | 801 | 801 | 801 | 801 |
| Total Liabilities | 3,877 | 3,891 | 3,897 | 3,957 |
| Additional capital | 4,421 | 4,421 | 4,421 | 4,421 |
| Retained earning | 16,846 | 17,546 | 18,918 | 20,290 |
| Other shareholders' equity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Total Equity | 22,080 | 22,780 | 24,151 | 25,523 |
| Total Liab. & Shrhldr's Equity | 25,956 | 26,671 | 28,048 | 29,480 |
E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Company Data
Cash Flow Statement
| NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashflov from Operations | 3,419 | 2,508 | 2,639 | 2,689 |
| Net profits | 2,727 | 2,041 | 2,377 | 2,552 |
| Depreciation | 315 | 322 | 328 | 335 |
| Working Capital Change | 99 | 146 | (67) | (198) |
| Other adjustments | 279 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cashflov from Investing | (308) | (332) | (338) | (345) |
| Capex | (139) | (332) | (338) | (345) |
| Change of LT Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change of ST Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | (169) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cashflov from financing | (2,468) | (1,340) | (1,006) | (1,180) |
| Increase in L/T debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Increase in S/T debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Dividend Paid | (1,295) | (1,340) | (1,006) | (1,180) |
| Dir& Emp Bonus Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Issuance of stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | (1,174) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange rate adjustment | (275) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net change in cash | 368 | 836 | 1,295 | 1,164 |
Financial Ratios
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth(%) | ||||
| Turnover | 1.8 | -5.1 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Operating profits | 10.5 | -25.7 | 20.0 | 8.0 |
| EPS | 6.5 | -24.0 | 17.3 | 7.4 |
| Margins (%) | ||||
| Gross Margin | 42.6 | 40.7 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| Operating Margin | 16.4 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 15.3 |
| Pretax Margin | 18.0 | 14.1 | 16.1 | 16.5 |
| Net Margin | 16.5 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Return (%) | ||||
| ROAE | 12.3 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| ROAA | 10.5 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.9 |
| Gearing (%) | ||||
| Net Debt/Equity | (49.4) | (51.5) | (54.0) | (55.6) |
| Liabilities/Equity | 17.6 | 17.1 | 16.1 | 15.5 |
| Ratios (X) | ||||
| Current ratio | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Quick ratio | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Others | ||||
| AR/NR Turnover (days) | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Inventory Turnover (days) | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| AP Turnover (days) | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Cash Conversion (days) | 135 | 135 | 135 | 135 |
M Idea
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
. View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Idea
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Semiconductors
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/28/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Chan | ||
| Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co (8086.TWO) | U (07/14/2025) | NT$125.00 |
| Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW) | O (05/14/2021) | NT$3,800.00 |
| ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW) | O (09/15/2024) | NT$695.00 |
| Cambricon Technology Corporation (688256.SS) | O (04/27/2026) | Rmb958.00 |
| CXMT Corp (688825.SS) | O (08/26/2026) | Rmb44.36 |
| Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW) | O (06/24/2026) | NT$8,170.00 |
| GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) | E (05/19/2026) | NT$849.00 |
| Gudeng Precision (3680.TWO) | O (11/25/2025) | NT$532.00 |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) | E (03/12/2026) | HK$70.00 |
| Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (9903.HK) | O (04/27/2026) | HK$73.60 |
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | O (11/28/2025) | NT$4,235.00 |
| MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SS) | E (04/27/2026) | Rmb489.40 |
| Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$477.00 |
| OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group Inc (603501.SS) | E (11/17/2025) | Rmb85.20 |
| Phison Electronics Corp (8299.TWO) | E (02/25/2026) | NT$2,040.00 |
| SG Micro Corp. (300661.SZ) | E (11/03/2025) | Rmb90.03 |
| Silergy Corp. (6415.TW) | U (05/19/2026) | NT$525.00 |
| SMIC (0981.HK) | O (10/21/2025) | HK$47.80 |
| TSMC (2330.TW) | O (02/07/2022) | NT$2,425.00 |
| UMC (2303.TW) | O (05/19/2026) | NT$128.00 |
| Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO) | E (01/14/2026) | NT$167.50 |
| WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$540.00 |
Daisy Dai, CFA
M Idea
| ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK) | O (07/24/2025) | HK$118.30 |
|---|---|---|
| China Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396.SS) | U (03/02/2026) | Rmb49.10 |
| Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269.SZ) | E (01/17/2025) | Rmb101.92 |
| Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460.SS) | U (08/25/2025) | Rmb25.07 |
| Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688041.SS) | O (07/03/2026) | Rmb192.70 |
| Innoscience (2577.HK) | E (10/13/2025) | HK$30.92 |
| JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS) | O (09/16/2026) | Rmb55.41 |
| Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK) | O (03/07/2025) | HK$23.22 |
| SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS) | O (03/20/2026) | Rmb81.00 |
| SJ Semiconductor Corp (688820.SS) | E (09/16/2026) | Rmb87.90 |
| StarPower Semiconductor Ltd (603290.SS) | E (05/14/2026) | Rmb70.98 |
| Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049.SZ) | U (01/10/2023) | Rmb50.13 |
| Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) (601231.SS) | O (11/05/2025) | Rmb22.02 |
| Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ) | O (06/10/2022) | Rmb74.94 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA | ||
| AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW) | O (07/11/2025) | NT$843.00 |
| ASMedia Technology Inc (5269.TW) | U (10/03/2025) | NT$1,505.00 |
| Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) | O (06/09/2025) | NT$17,295.00 |
| Egis Technology Inc (6462.TWO) | E (01/28/2026) | NT$99.00 |
| Elan Microelectronics Corp (2458.TW) | O (10/03/2025) | NT$130.00 |
| eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO) | O (08/18/2026) | NT$2,655.00 |
| Espressif Systems (688018.SS) | O (05/15/2023) | Rmb142.55 |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS) | O (05/15/2025) | Rmb289.88 |
| Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX.O) | E (02/04/2026) | US$11.94 |
| Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW) | O (09/18/2025) | NT$103.50 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK) | O (03/18/2026) | HK$230.20 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS) | O (03/18/2026) | Rmb174.70 |
| Novatek (3034.TW) | U (02/04/2026) | NT$598.00 |
| Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW) | U (11/10/2025) | NT$142.00 |
| Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO) | U (10/28/2026) | NT$525.00 |
| Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW) | O (10/27/2025) | NT$71.30 |
| Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW) | E (01/30/2026) | NT$791.00 |
| Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160.SS) | U (07/14/2025) | Rmb61.38 |
| Silicon Motion (SIMO.O) | O (05/06/2024) | US$204.17 |
| Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$172.00 |
| WPG Holdings (3702.TW) | O (03/16/2026) | NT$116.00 |
| WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (3036.TW) | O (01/27/2026) | NT$217.00 |
| Henry Zhao | ||
| ACM Research Inc (ACMR.O) | O (03/07/2023) | US$51.97 |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012.SS) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb240.00 |
| Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd (300782.SZ) | U (01/11/2021) | Rmb56.00 |
| NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (002371.SZ) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb511.68 |
| Lucas Wang | ||
| AllRing Tech Co. (6187.TWO) | O (09/23/2025) | NT$1,345.00 |
| FOCI Fiber Optic Communications Inc (3363.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$533.00 |
| Hon Precision (7769.TW) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$5,565.00 |
| King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW) | O (03/03/2023) | NT$277.50 |
| MPI Corporation (6223.TWO) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$5,115.00 |
Stock Ratings ar subj ct to chang . Pl as s lat st r s arch for ach company.
- Historical pric s ar not split adjust d.