PDF 原檔：報告_MS_聯發科2454_20260731_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-03）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260731_ms_MTK_001.png |
65KB | 真資料圖 | ASIC 世代出貨量預估表格（k Units）：v5/v6/v7/v8i/v8t/v9/v9a/v10 各世代 2023-2028E 出貨量，含代工廠商標註（Broadcom／MediaTek／US design service）；v8t 2027e 3,000（紅字標示）、v9 2028e 3,000（紅字標示），Total 2028e >6,500 |
260731_ms_MTK_002.png |
45KB | 真資料圖 | MS 評等與目標價歷史走勢圖：股價疊多筆 PO 變動點位與日期標籤（618→5588），橫軸 2023-07~2026-07 |
260731_ms_MTK_003.png |
73KB | 真資料圖 | AlphaSignals 財報反應圖：股價走勢疊 O/A、E/A、U/A、U/I、O/I 標記點與對應目標價階梯線（618→5588），橫軸 2023-07~2026-07 |
原始內容
M July 31, 2026 11:48 AM GMT
MediaTek | Asia Pacific
Raising 2027 ASIC revenue and more confident about 2028; reiterate OW
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- We reiterate our NT$5,588 price target (57% upside) and maintain it as our Top Pick. Raises to its 2027 and 2028 outlook should be the key catalyst.
- In response to our AI smartphone question, the company stated that it is engaging with various LLM vendors for new formats of agentic AI devices.
Increase in 2027 TPU revenue forecast should still be an upside surprise: The company now expects it can gain 15%-20% revenue share in 2027 ASIC TAM of US $80bn (excluding HBM cost). That implies US$12bn-US$16bn revenue, above its prior outlook for US$7bn-US$12bn. We project 2027 TPU revenue at US$15.7bn. Because TPU is the major ASIC project in global TAM, MediaTek's implied TPU market share could be 20% in 2027, similar to our preview.
Confident in 2nm TPU adopting EMIB-T packaging in 2028: The company is confident that EMIB-T substrate yield can improve. We asked whether this project still needs TSMC's CoWoS capacity as a back-up, and management replied that 'switch to a second source would take time,' which to us means no need for now. MediaTek also believes its ASIC revenue market share would further increase in 2028-very bullish, in our view.
3Q26 revenue guided to be flat to up 5% Q/Q, better than our down 5% Q/Q: We cite a sustainable high-end smartphone segment and MediaTek's chip price hike.
Exhibit 1 : MediaTek - 2Q26 Earnings Review
| (NT$ mn) | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ mn) | Actual | Q/Q | Y/Y | MS Est. | Consensus |
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | 152,183 | 2.0% | -0.7% | 152,183 | 147,431 |
| Opex | (47,440) | 2.8% | 8.4% | (44,654) | (45,866) |
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 15.28 | 1.9% | -17.1% | 15.49 | 14.22 |
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 46.2% | -10bps | -194bps | 45.9% | 46.2% |
| Opex (%) | 31.2% | 22bps | 263bps | 29.3% | 31.1% |
| OPM (%) | 15.0% | -32bps | -458bps | 16.5% | 15.1% |
Source: Company Data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
MediaTek (2454.TW, 2454 TT)
Top Pick
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
Stock Rating Industry View
Overweight Attractive NT$5,588.00 NT$3,555.00 NT$4,970.00- 1,130.00 1,565 NT$5,564,232 NT$5,348,703
Price target Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) 52-Week Range
Sh out, dil, curr (mn) Mkt cap, curr (mn) EV, curr (mn) Avg daily trading value (mn)
NT$20,889
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.