PDF 原檔：報告_MS_日本工具機訂單JMTBA_20260930_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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報告_MS_日本工具機訂單JMTBA_20260930_001.png |
58KB | 真資料圖（股價類，不嵌 lib） | 股價（藍線）與階梯式目標價（紅虛線）圖，2023-09 至 2026-09；最新目標價標示 2,000（歷史標示 1,050、1,150、1,130、1,000、1,030、1,180、1,230、1,350） |
報告_MS_日本工具機訂單JMTBA_20260930_002.png |
56KB | 真資料圖（股價類，不嵌 lib） | 股價（藍線）與階梯式目標價（紅虛線）圖，2023-09 至 2026-09；最新目標價標示 450（歷史標示 205、220、210、225、310、160、300、380、400） |
兩圖左上角皆有評等標記（E/I、O/I、U/I）；圖內未見公司名稱，歸屬以報告頁序推定。
原始內容
M Update September 30, 2026 05:11 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Automation - Read-across from JMTBA August 2026 Orders
In this report, e focus on final JMTBA orders, hich e believe could be among the catalysts for Airtac's and Hi in's share prices.
Per the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders rew 2% MoM and 65% YoY in Au ust 2026 (vs. -5% MoM/+50% YoY in July 2026), to ¥198bn.
- Domestic orders -3% MoM/ 62% YoY (vs.-8% MoM/ 50% YoY in July), to ¥52bn
- Overseas orders 5% MoM/ 66% YoY (vs. -4% MoM/ 51% YoY in July), to ¥146bn
- By region:
- ° China: -2% MoM/ 62% YoY, to ¥47bn
- ° Europe: -12% MoM/ 44% YoY, to ¥20bn
- ° North America: 24% MoM/ 72% YoY, to ¥50bn
Our view:
- We think the solid YoY growth for overseas orders continues to point to an upcycle scenario, despite some seasonal volatility with MoM growth in some regions,
- On top of overall segment recovery within automation:
- ° Airtac (1590.TW, OW) should benefit from its own share gains and incremental contributions from linear motion components. Valuation appears undemanding at 17x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
- ° Hiwin (2049.TW, OW) should show margin expansion in the coming quarters, supported by higher utilization and price hikes. We see potential share price upside as the stock now trades at 29x 2027e P/E (vs. peak cycle valuation of 35-40x).
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst
D rrick.Yang@morganstanl y.com
+886 2 2730-2862
Vivi Huang
R s arch Associat Vivi.Huang@morganstanl y.com
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2860
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Alpha ignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to thesis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AirTAC International 1590.TW | |||
| JMTBA August 0 6 Orders | 30 Sep 0 6 | Unchanged | In-line |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. 2049.TW | |||
| JMTBA August 0 6 Orders | 30 Sep 0 6 | Unchanged | In-line |
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
AirTAC International (1590.TW)
Base case, 29x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an up-cycle, we think applying a near-peak cycle valuation of 29x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
- n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation
Risks to Downside
- n Sharper economic downturn in China
- nMiniature linear guideway business development taking more time
- n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand
Hiwin Tec nologies Corp. (2049.TW)
Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 38x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 47% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
- nMarket share gains.
- n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.
Risks to Downside
- nWeaker industrial automation demand.
- nMore pricing pressure.
- nMarket share loss.
- nMore broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (09/30/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings ( 018.HK) | O (01/ 9/ 0 4) | HK$39.44 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (00 81.SZ) | U (05/1 / 0 ) | Rmb164.88 |
| BYD Electronics (0 85.HK) | O (04/ 8/ 0 3) | HK$ .98 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (00 373.SZ) | E (07/18/ 0 3) | Rmb7.35 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (00 36.SZ) | E (1 /1 / 0 4) | Rmb15.3 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (30050 .SZ) | O (0 / 7/ 0 6) | Rmb389.00 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | U (09/10/ 0 6) | NT$890.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (00 41.SZ) | E (08/14/ 0 6) | Rmb .79 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/07/ 0 ) | Rmb4.17 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (00 415.SZ) | E (1 /1 / 0 4) | Rmb3 .46 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | E (09/10/ 0 6) | NT$5,945.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (00 036.SZ) | U (06/1 / 0 4) | Rmb5.97 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (00 600.SZ) | U (04/ 3/ 0 5) | Rmb11.88 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/ 0 6) | HK$5.54 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. ( 475.HK) | O (08/14/ 0 6) | HK$53.55 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (00 475.SZ) | O (10/ 4/ 016) | Rmb49.43 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (00 456.SZ) | U (06/1 / 0 4) | Rmb6.49 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/ 3/ 0 6) | HK$5.06 |
| Quectel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603 36.SS) | E (10/09/ 0 4) | Rmb71.35 |
| Shanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd ( 76.HK) | O (04/10/ 0 6) | HK$35.66 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/ 3/ 0 6) | Rmb53.80 |
| Sunny Optical ( 38 .HK) | E (03/ 3/ 0 6) | HK$63.35 |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/ 0 5) | Rmb 60.77 |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745.SS) Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | U (05/18/ 0 6) O (04/14/ 0 1) | Rmb16.43 HK$ 5. 4 |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/ 0 1) | Rmb411.16 |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/ 0 6) | HK$168.10 |
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (603 97.SS) | E (11/15/ 0 ) | Rmb106.9 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (00 73.SZ) | O (11/15/ 0 ) | Rmb 4.40 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/07/ 0 6) | Rmb808.44 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/ 0 6) | HK$1,06 .00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/ 0 6) | HK$ 1.86 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/ 0 6) | Rmb30.58 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation ( 345.TW) | O (06/06/ 0 4) | NT$1,775.00 |
| Advantech ( 395.TW) | O (01/ 0/ 0 1) | NT$7 6.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/ 0 5) | NT$1, 00.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/ 0 4) | NT$3,435.00 |
| AU Optronics ( 409.TW) | E (0 /10/ 0 6) | NT$38.55 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (33 4.TWO) | E (05/04/ 0 3) | NT$1,530.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/ 0 5) | NT$ ,595.00 |
| BOE Technology (0007 5.SZ) | O (09/06/ 019) | Rmb5.7 |
| Chenbro (8 10.TW) | O (07/ 3/ 0 5) | NT$836.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. ( 360.TW) | O (10/05/ 0 1) | NT$ ,135.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. ( 308.TW) | O (07/13/ 017) | NT$1,890.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/ 0 6) | NT$144.00 |
| Ennostar Inc (3714.TW) | U (09/ 3/ 0 ) | NT$69.90 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/ 5/ 0 5) | NT$ ,455.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. ( 049.TW) | O (03/30/ 0 6) | NT$335.00 NT$54.70 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/ 0 5) | ,055.00 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. ( 059.TW) | O (11/08/ 0 3) | NT$1 |
M Update
| Lens Technology (300433.SZ) | E (07/ / 0 0) | Rmb3 .31 |
|---|---|---|
| Lite-On Technology ( 301.TW) | E (01/15/ 0 5) | NT$ 79.50 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/ 0 5) | Rmb4.79 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050.SZ) | U (01/ 4/ 018) | Rmb6.31 |
| Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co Ltd (300567.SZ) | E (11/ 6/ 0 1) | Rmb184.03 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. ( 353.TW) | U (04/ 3/ 0 5) | NT$31.65 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. ( 357.TW) | U (11/16/ 0 5) | NT$961.00 |
| Catcher Technology ( 474.TW) | U (11/17/ 0 5) | NT$ 06.50 |
| Compal Electronics ( 3 4.TW) | U (04/ 3/ 0 5) | NT$37.10 |
| Elite Material Co. ( 383.TW) | O (09/14/ 0 6) | NT$4,935.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/ 0 5) | HK$4.95 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/ 019) | Rmb58. 0 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. ( 376.TW) | E (11/16/ 0 5) | NT$358.50 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. ( 368.TW) | O (10/06/ 0 ) | NT$1,1 0.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision ( 317.TW) | O (03/15/ 0 4) | NT$ 51.50 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (000977.SZ) | E (08/ 8/ 0 3) | Rmb65.93 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/ 0 6) | HK$48.54 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/ 6/ 0 6) | NT$ ,695.00 |
| Lenovo (099 .HK) | O (07/10/ 0 6) | HK$34.54 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/1 / 0 5) | NT$1,770.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (0 / 3/ 0 6) | NT$1,340.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/ 5/ 0 6) | NT$89.80 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. ( 38 .TW) | O (05/01/ 0 3) | NT$333.50 |
| Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/ 6/ 0 ) | Rmb1 9.96 |
| Shennan Circuits Co Ltd (00 916.SZ) | E (08/ 4/ 0 3) | Rmb373.01 |
| Unimicron (3037.TW) | O (0 / 3/ 0 6) | NT$1,175.00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd ( 455.TW) | E (09/11/ 0 3) | NT$55 .00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3 31.TW) | O (07/1 / 0 3) | NT$184.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/ 0 5) | NT$ ,090.00 |
| Yageo Corp. ( 3 7.TW) | O (10/ 8/ 0 5) | NT$548.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$507.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/ 0 6) | NT$495.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6 74.TWO) | O (09/14/ 0 6) | NT$1,5 0.00 |
Stock Ratings ar subj ct to chang . Pl as s lat st r s arch for ach company.
- Historical pric s ar not split adjust d.