報告_MS_日月光投控3711_20261029

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原始內容

原始內容

M Update October 29, 2026 02:26 PM GMT

ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. | Asia Pacific

CPO Revenue on Track; Stay OW

AlphaSignals Ea nings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside

Impact to our t esis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-mont

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc

CPO is on track for >US$500mn in 2027: Management mentioned the CPO has already started mass production and will reach at least US$500mn in 2027. his is in-line with our estimates that we forecast CPO revenue to be >US$600mn in 2027.

Slig tly upward revision of LEAP revenue: he company slightly raised 2026 LEAP (leading-edge advanced packaging) revenue from US$3.7bn to US$4bn and 2027 from >US$7.5bn to >US$8bn, on track to our forecast of US$9bn. It expects at least US$1bn of full process CoWoS-like revenue in 2027 vs. MSe of US$1.8bn.

Margin expansion is also on track: 3Q26 A M gross margin has already surpassed the structural range and reached 30.6%. he company mentioned 30% would be the new floor and expects it to continue to expand sequentially in 2027.

3Q26 GM and 4Q26 guidance slig tly beat: 3Q26 GM of 22.1% is slightly higher than both MSe and the consensus. 4Q26 revenue guidance of 6-8% QoQ growth and GM of 23-24% are both slightly higher than MSe of 5% QoQ growth and 22-23% GM forecast.

Exhibit 1: ASE: 3Q26 Earnings Review

Source: Company Data, Visib e A pha, Morgan Stan ey Research estimates

• Modest revision higher consensus EPS

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd.(3711.TW, 3711 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus met odology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity of 9.8%, intermediate growth rate of 10%, terminal growth rate of 3.5%, and cash dividend payout ratio of 60%.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth
• nMargin expansion through merger consolidation
• n New wearables project wins with higher margins

Risks to ownside

• n Slower-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth
• n Further margin erosion amid price competition
• n Lack of new features in wearables, causing consumers to lose interest

M Update

isclosure Section

The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated y Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsi ility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration num er 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration num er 200008434H), regulated y the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsi ility for its contents and should e contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsi ility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial services license No. 240813, which accepts responsi ility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated y the Securities and Exchange Board of India ('SEBI') and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI Registration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mum ai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsi ility for its contents and should e contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research, and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use AI tools in providing research services. All recommendations contained herein are made y the duly qualified research analysts.

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: G eate China Technology Semiconducto s

M Update

Stock Ratings are subject to change. P ease see atest research for each company.

• Historica prices are not sp it adjusted.