PDF 原檔:報告_MS_新唐4919_20261101_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_新唐4919_20261101_001.png |
39KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4 P/B:新唐 P/B 折線(2013-2026),三條水平線標示 Average 2.3x、+One Standard Deviation 3.2x、-One Standard Deviation 1.5x;2026 年末端急升至約 4.2x,高於 +1 標準差;估值圖,不嵌公司頁 |
報告_MS_新唐4919_20261101_002.png |
24KB | 真資料圖 | Risk Reward 圖:Nov '25 至 Nov '26 股價(藍線,最高約 220,現價 NT$124.50 紅點),右側 Nov '27 三情境:Bull NT$143.00(+14.86%)、Base NT$95.00(-23.69%)、Bear NT$48.00(-61.45%);股價/目標價圖,不嵌公司頁 |
報告_MS_新唐4919_20261101_003.png |
17KB | 真資料圖 | Global revenue exposure 圓環圖(MS 估計):Mainland China 50-60%、APAC ex Japan/Mainland China and India 20-30%、Europe ex UK 0-10%、Japan 0-10%、North America 0-10%;營收地區曝險圖,不嵌公司頁 |
報告_MS_新唐4919_20261101_004.png |
52KB | 真資料圖 | Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History(2023-11 至 2026-10):股價藍線與目標價紅色階梯線,TP 階梯值 152、148、81、115、85、60、48、98、95;頂部評等標記序列 O/A、U/I、O/I、O/A、E/A、U/A 等(最近一次 U/A 約 2025-11);股價/目標價圖,不嵌公司頁。註:此圖在 pdf_trim 後的 Raw_data 內文中未被引用,檔案仍在 attachment |
原始內容
原始內容
M Update November 1, 2026 08:50 PM GMT
Nuvoton Technology Corporation | Asia Pacific
Losses Widen; BMC Growth and Japan Restructuring Remain Key
AlphaSignals Earnings eaction
Unchanged Modest shortfall
Impact to our t esis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc
3Q losses widened Q Q amid lower gross profit, increased opex and reduced non-operating income. Management sees scope for faster BMC growth in 2027, with execution and Japan restructuring critical to delivering earnings growth.
3Q losses widened: Revenue was NT$7.86bn, -1% Q/Q, +8% Y/Y, 3% above our estimate gross profit was NT$2.9bn, -3% Q/Q, +13% Y/Y, 6% above our forecast gross margin was 37.4%, -0.6ppt Q/Q, +1.7ppt Y/Y, 1.2ppt above our estimate. Loss per share was NT$1.24, wider Q/Q, Y/Y, and vs. our expectation. Management attributed gross margin weakness to product mix back-end supply constraints and substantial AI-related R&D left operational progress around 1Q behind plan.
Demand remains mixed: Auto demand has stabilized after prior Y/Y declines, but management sees no clear rebound. PC demand was significantly weaker in 2H26 than in 1H26 with higher content per PC vs. 2025 helping cushion the impact of lower volumes. Memory cost increases have been passed through on memorybundled MPUs, although some customers began pulling back in 4Q26. MCU repricing reflects foundry and OSAT costs. Most 2027 capacity has been secured but cost pass-through and supply availability do not establish margin expansion.
BMC and Japan remain the ke milestones: Management sees scope for 2027 BMC Y/Y growth to exceed 2026's, with existing customers and multiple new customers, including a CSP, contributing. New customer revenue should initially be small with fuller contributions over one to two years. Current-gen products should dominate 2027 shipments next-gen volumes may start modestly in 2H27. Japan remains the source of losses, making the Tower JV restructuring targeted by management for end-March 2027 central to recovery.
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Dani l.Y n@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charli .Chan@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanl y.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Ethan Jia R s arch Associat Ethan.Jia@morganstanl y.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW, 4919 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Underweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$95.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | (24) |
| S r price, close (Oct 30, 2026) | NT$124.50 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$230.00-49.80 |
| S out, dil, curr (mn) | 401 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$49,904 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$48,310 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$1,303 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | (3.96) | (2.35) | 4.24 | 7.63 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | (1.17) | 4.15 | 7.64 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | (2.81) | (1.80) | 2.02 | 7.64 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 30,492 | 31,293 | 34,719 | 38,053 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 539 | (177) | 1,328 | 3,336 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | (1,665) | (1,003) | 1,822 | 3,280 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | NM | NM | 29.4 | 16.3 |
| ROE (%) | (10.6) | (7.6) | 15.0 | 23.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.8 | NM | 38.4 | 14.4 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (7.9) | (2.5) | (3.3) | 5.0 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (12.2) | (1.6) | 8.1 | (10.9) |
Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus met odology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
- Modest revision lower Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-mont
consensus EPS
M Update
Earnings Estimate Revisions
We factor in the actual 3Q results: 3Q losses widened due to higher opex, lower nonoperating income and tax expenses. Uncertainties remain around BMC and Japan, and demand remains mixed, so we do not yet revise our 2027-28 EPS estimates significantly.
Exhibit 1: Nuvoton: Estimat r visions
| NT$ mn | New 2026E | Previous 2026E | Diff. | New 2027E | Previous 2027E | Diff. | New 2028E | Previous 2028E | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 31,293 | 31,059 | 1% | 34,719 | 34,719 | 0% | 38,053 | 38,053 | 0% |
| COGS | (19,461) | (19,402) | (21,394) | (21,394) | (22,466) | (22,466) | |||
| Gross profit | 11,832 | 11,657 | 1% | 13,325 | 13,325 | 0% | 15,586 | 15,586 | 0% |
| Operating expenses | (13,047) | (12,687) | (12,198) | (12,264) | (12,914) | (12,979) | |||
| Operating profit | (1,215) | (1,030) | 18% | 1,127 | 1,061 | 6% | 2,673 | 2,607 | 3% |
| Non-op. income (exp.) | 589 | 832 | 791 | 683 | 780 | 600 | |||
| Pretax Income | (626) | (199) | 215% | 1,917 | 1,744 | 10% | 3,453 | 3,207 | 8% |
| Taxes | (377) | (292) | (96) | 0 | (173) | 0 | |||
| Net income | (1,003) | (491) | 104% | 1,822 | 1,744 | 4% | 3,280 | 3,207 | 2% |
| Reported EPS (NT$) | (2.35) | (1.17) | 101% | 4.24 | 4.15 | 2% | 7.63 | 7.64 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 37.8% | 37.5% | 0 ppt | 38.4% | 38.4% | 0 0pt | 41.0% | 41.0% | 0 0pt |
| Operating margin | -3.9% | -3.3% | -0.6 ppt | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.2 ppt | 7.0% | 6.9% | 0.2 ppt |
| Pretax margin | -2.0% | -0.6% | -1.4 ppt | 5.5% | 5.0% | 0.5 ppt | 9.1% | 8.4% | 0.6 ppt |
| Net margin | -3.2% | -1.6% | -1.6 ppt | 5.2% | 5.0% | 0.2 ppt | 8.6% | 8.4% | 0.2 ppt |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch stimat s
Exhibit : Nuvoton: Quart rly Financials
| (NT$ mn) - Total Revenues | 1Q25 2Q25 - 8,364 | 1Q25 2Q25 - 7,816 | 3Q25 - 7,272 | 4Q25 - 7,040 | 1Q26 - 7,988 | 2Q26 - 7,941 | 3Q26 4Q26e - 7,856 | 3Q26 4Q26e - 7,507 | 2025 2026e - 30,492 | 2025 2026e - 31,293 | 2027e 2028e - 34,719 | 2027e 2028e - 38,053 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sequential Change | 15.1% | -6.6% | -7.0% | -3.2% | 13.5% | -0.6% | -1.1% 8.0% | -4.4% 6.6% | 2.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | |
| Change vs Year Ago | -1.2% | -5.0% | -8.6% | -3.2% | -4.5% | 1.6% | -4.5% | (22,466) | ||||
| Cost of Sales Percent of Revenues | (4,914) 538.7% | (5,088) 65.1% | (4,675) 64.3% | (4,627) 65.7% | (4,846) 60.7% | (4,922) 620% | (4,915) 62.6% | (4,778) 63.7%% | (19,304) 6%3% | (19,461) 62.2% | (21,394) 9.6% | 59.0% |
| Gross Profit | 3,451 | 2,728 | 2,597 | 2,413 | 3,142 | 3,020 | 2,941 | 2,729 | 11,189 | 11,832 | 13,325 | 15,586 |
| Gross Margin | 41.3% | 34.9% | 35.7% | 34.3% | 39.3% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 36.3% | 36.7% | 37.8% | 38.4% | 41.0% |
| Total Opex | (3,177) | (3,030) | (3,113) | (3,097) | (3,254) | (3,353) | (3,448) | (2,992) | (12,417) | (13,047) | (12,198) | (12,914) |
| 0/0 | 6.3% | -4.7% | 2.8% | -0.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | -13.2% | ||||
| YIY | 3.2% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | -3.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% | -6.5% | 5.9% |
| Percent of Revenues | 38.0% | 38.8% | 42.8% | 44.0% | 40.7% | 42.2% | 43.9% | 39.9% | 40.7% | 41.7% | 35.1% | 33.9% |
| R&D | (2,303) | (2,196) | (2,293) | (2,257) | (2,383) | (2,485) | (2,357) | (2,237) | (9,049) | (9,462) | (9,137) | (9,513) |
| Percent of Revenues | 27.5% | 28.1% | 31.5% | 32.1% | 29.8% | 31.3% | 30.0% | 29.8% | 29.7% | 30.2% | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| Sales and Marketing | (254) | (250) | (249) | (254) | (255) | (278) | (236) | (225) | (1,007) | (994) | (1,042) | (1,142) |
| Percent of Revenues | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| General and Admin | (620) | (584) | (571) | (586) | (616) | (590) | (540) | (530) | (2,361) | (2,275) | (2,019) | (2,259) |
| Percent of Revenues | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| Operating Income | 273 | (302) | (516) | (684) | (112) | (333) | (507) | (263) | (1,228) | (1,215) | 1,127 | 2,673 |
| Percent of Revenues | 3.3% | -3.9% | -7.1% | -9.7% | -1.4% | -4.2% | -6.5% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -3.9% | 3.2% | 7.0% |
| % QoQ | -224.2% | -210.4% | 71.1% | 32.4% | -83.6% | 197.7% | 52.2% | -48.1% | (1,228) | (1,215) | 1,127 | 2,673 |
| Total Non-operating Income(Loss) | 69 | (343) | 45 | 22 | 283 | 212 | 10 | 83 | (217) | 589 | 791 | 780 |
| Forex gain (loss) | 35 | (588) | 0 | 0 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 0 | (553) | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest expense | (40) | (52) | (50) | (41) | (39) 35 | (38) | 0 | (182) | (78) | 0 | ||
| Interest income | 72 | 60 | 43 | 37 | 40 | 0 0 | 38 | 212 | 113 | 0 161 | 240 | |
| Net Investment Income | (14) | 155 | 0 | 0 | (46) | (2) | 0 | 0 | 141 | (48) | 450 | 360 |
| Investment Disposal Gain (loss) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other income (expense) | 6 | 82 | 52 | 26 | 280 | 202 | 10 | 45 | 166 | 537 | 180 | 180 |
| Profit Before Taxes | 333 | (644) | (471) | (662) | 172 | (121) | (497) | (180) | (1,445) | (626) | 1,917 | 3,453 |
| Percent of Revenues | 4.0% | -8.2% | -6.5% | -9.4% | 2.1% | -1.5% | -6.3% | -2.4% | -4.7% | -2.0% | 5.5% | 9.1% |
| Change vs Year Ago | -17.9% -1410.6% | 1227.5% | 3329.9% | -48.4% | -81.2% | 5.5% | -72.8% | |||||
| Taxes | (115) | (30) | (43) | (32) | (164) | (128) | (62) | (22) | (220) | (377) | (96) | (173) |
| Tax Rate | 34.6% | -4.7% | -9.0% | -4.8% | 95.8% | -105.8% | -12.5% | -12.5% | -15.2% | -60.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Reported Income (TW GAAP) | 217 | -7.1% | (694) | 7 | (249) | (559) -7.1% | (202) | (1,665) | (1,003) | 1,822 | 3,280 | |
| Percent of Revenues | 2.6% | (675) -8.6% | (513) | -9.9% | 0.1% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -5.5% | -3.2% | 5.2% | 8.6% | |
| Change vs Year Ago | -46.8% | 3061.4% | 386.9% | 1011.9% | -96.7% | -63.1% | 8.9% | -70.8% | -857.2% | -39.7% | -281.6% | 80.1% |
| MW Diluted EPS (NTS, TW GAAP) | 0.52 | (1.61) | (1.22) | (1.65) | 0.02 | (0.58) | (1.30) | (0.47) | (3.96) | (2°5) | 4.24 | 7.63 |
| EBS Dilution (%) | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.9% | -0.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Reported Basic EPS (NT$, GAAP) Sequential Change | 0.52 -448.4% | (1.61) -410.3% | (1.22) -24.1% | (1.65) 35.5% | 0.02 -101.0% | (0.58) -3509.8% | (1.24) 124.5% | (0.47) -63.8% | (3.96) -856.7% | (2.35) -40.7% | 4.24 -280.5% | 7.63 80.1% |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch M Update
Nuvoton: Valuation Methodology
PT is unchanged at NT$95.00: We factor in our earnings estimate changes. We maintain the other assumptions in our RI model, including a 9.2% cost of equity (beta of 1.2, riskfree rate of 2.0% and risk premium of 6.0%), payout ratio of 55%, a medium-term growth rate of 7.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%. Our bull- and bear-case scenario values also are unchanged at NT$143.00 and NT$48.00, respectively.
Exhibit 3: RI mod l
| (NT$ mn) | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2029e | 2030e | 2031e | 2032e | 2033e | 2034e | 2035e | 2036e | 2037e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Equity | 12,115 | 13,936 | 17,216 | 18,989 | 20,885 | 22,915 | 25,086 | 27,409 | 29,895 | 32,555 | 35,401 | 38,447 |
| Net Profit | (1,003) | 1,822 | 3,280 | 3,510 | 3,755 | 4,018 | 4,300 | 4,601 | 4,923 | 5,267 | 5,636 | 6,030 |
| ROAE | NM | 14.0% | 21.1% | 19.4% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| Residual Income | NA | 580 | 1,653 | 1,754 | 1,830 | 1,911 | 1,997 | 2,089 | 2,187 | 2,293 | 2,405 | 2,525 |
| Spread | NA | 4.8% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% |
| 2026 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| Ending Equity Capital | 12,115 | |||||||||||
| PV of Forecast Period | 11,205 | |||||||||||
| PV of Continuing Value | 17.412 | |||||||||||
| Equity Value | 40,731 | |||||||||||
| No. of Shares | 427 | |||||||||||
| Projected Price (NTS) | 95 |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch stimat s
Exhibit 4: P/B
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch stimat s
M Update
Risk Reward - Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW) Risk Reward - Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW)
Awaiting gross margin recovery to turn positive
NT$95.00 PRICE TARGET
Base case, residual income model. We assume a 9.2% cost of equity (beta 1.2, risk-free rate 2.0% and risk premium 6.0%), a payout ratio of 55%, a medium-term growth rate of 7.0%, and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%.
RISK REWARD CHART
Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
UNDERWEIGHT THESIS
- ▪Demand in the auto and industrial segments is recovering, but at a mild pace. ▪Nuvoton is well positioned to expand MPU share through bundled sales with Winbond's DDR4.
- ▪We also see business opportunities in BMC/BMIC for AI servers.
- ▪We expect the company to remain lossmaking in 4Q26 and are awaiting GM recovery before turning more positive on the stock, which we view as overvalued.
Risk Reward Themes
Contrarian:
Negative
Electric Vehicles:
Positive
Self-help:
Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
34x 2027e EPS
NTCJ enjoys a 15%+ revenue CAGR over 2025-28. Operating margin improves to 10%, on average, in 2026-28.
24x 2027e EPS
NTCJ enjoys a 5% revenue CAGR over 202528. Operating margin fluctuates during 2025-28 between -4% and +7%, mainly reflecting R&D investment and pricing pressure on gross margin.
11x 2027e EPS
NTCJ has no revenue growth in 2025-28. Operating margin ~0% in 2026-28.
NT$48.00
NT$143.00
NT$95.00
M Update
Risk Reward - Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Dec 2025 | Dec 2026e | Dec 2027e | Dec 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (%) | 37 | 38 | 38 | 41 |
| MCU ASP growth (%) | (5) | (1) | (5) | (6) |
| Operating margin (%) | (5) | (3) | 5 | 9 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- MCU unit shipments
- MCU pricing trend
- Operating expenses
- Automotive demand
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- MCU up-cycle is more sustained than expected.
- China's MCU localization is faster than expected.
- Traction from auto and BMC business is greater.
- Margin improvement is more significant.
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- MCU up-cycle ends earlier with severe pricing erosion.
- China's MCU localization is slower than expected.
- Traction from auto and BMC business is less.
- Margins contract amid more intensified competition.
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active
31.8%
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
FY Dec 2026e
Sales /
Revenue
(NT$, mn)
EBIT
31,293
Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying consensus data for this metric
(1,215)
(NT$, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying consensus data for this metric
EPS
(2.35)
(NT$)
ROE
(%)
Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying consensus data for this metric
Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying consensus data for this metric
Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Update
Financial Summary
Exhibit 5: Nuvoton: Financial Summary
| Income Statement, 2025-2028e, Year End Dec - (NT$ mn) | Income Statement, 2025-2028e, Year End Dec - 2025 | Income Statement, 2025-2028e, Year End Dec - 2026e | Income Statement, 2025-2028e, Year End Dec - 2027e | Income Statement, 2025-2028e, Year End Dec - 2028e | Balance sheet - (NT$ mn) | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | 30,492 | 31,293 | 34,719 | 38,053 | Assets | 10,730 | |||
| YoY Growth | -4.5% | 2.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | Cash & Equivalents Marketable Security | 7,203 1 | 5,850 1 | 6,078 1 | 1 |
| Less: COGS | (19,304) | (19,461) | (21,394) | (22,466) | A/R & N/R | 3,964 | 4,227 | 5,489 | 5,487 |
| Variable costs | Inventories | 6,217 | 6,420 | 7,942 | 7,587 | ||||
| Depreciation & amort | Other Current Asset | 917 | 917 | 917 | 917 | ||||
| Gross profit | 11,189 | 11,832 | 13,325 | 15,586 | Total current assets | 18,301 | 17,414 | 20,427 | 24,721 |
| YoY Growth | -7.5% | 5.7% | 12.6% | 17.0% | LT Investment | 863 | 815 | 1,265 | 1,625 |
| % margin | 36.7% | 37.8% | 38.4% | 41.0% | Total Fixed Assets | 5,836 | 5,833 | 6,726 | 7,227 |
| (13,047) | (12,198) | Total Other Assets | 4,992 | 4,992 29,054 | 4,992 33,409 | 4,992 38,565 | |||
| Operating Expenses: | (12,417) (9,049) | (9,462) | (9,137) | (12,914) (9,513) | Total Assets | 29,991 | |||
| R&D Sales and Marketing | (1,007) | (994) | (1,042) | (1,142) | |||||
| General and Admin | (2,361) | (2,275) | (2,019) | (2,259) | A/P & N/P | 2,187 | 2,252 | 2,786 | 2,661 |
| Operating Profit | (1,228) | (1,215) | 1,127 | 2,673 | Accrued Expenses | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| YoY Growth | -9669.4% | -1.0% | -192.7% | 137.2% | Other Payable | 3,430 | 3,430 | 3,430 | 3,430 |
| % margin | -4.0% | -39% | 3.2% | 7.0% | Total Current Liab. | 8,842 | 8,908 | 9,442 | 9,317 |
| L-T Liabilities | 4,865 | 4,865 | 6,865 | 8,865 | |||||
| Total Non-op | (217) | 589 | 791 | 780 | Total Other L-T Liab | 3,166 | 3,166 | 3,166 19,473 | 3,166 21,348 |
| Pretax Profit | (1,445) | (626) | 1,917 | 3,453 | Total Liabilities | 16,874 | 16,939 | ||
| YoY Growth | -461.5% | -56.6% | -406.1% | 80.1% | Common Stock | 4,198 | 4,198 | 4,198 | 4,198 |
| % margin | -4.7% | -2.0% | 5.5% | 9.1% | Preferred Stock Capital Reserve | 7,100 | 7,100 | 7,100 | 7,100 |
| Tax | (220) | (377) | (96) | (173) | Retained earnings | 1,820 | 817 | 2,639 | 5,919 |
| Net Income bf. Emp. Bonus | (1,889) | (1,002) | 2,068 | 3,723 | Treasury Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Employee bonus expense | 225 | (1) | (246) | (443) | Total Equity | 13,118 | 12,115 | 13,936 | 17,216 |
| Reported Net Income | (1,665) | (1,003) | 1,822 | 3,280 | Total Liab. & Equity | ||||
| Reported EPS (NTS) | (3.96) | (2.35) | 4.24 | 7.63 | |||||
| ModelWare EPS (NTS) | (3.96) | (2.35) | 4.24 | 7.63 | |||||
| Key Ratios | Cash Flow Statement | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | (NT$ mn) | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | |
| Return (%) | Net Income | (1,665) | (1,003) | 1,822 | 3,280 | ||||
| ROAA | (5.2%) | (3.1%) | 5.4% | 9.1% | Depreciation | 1,767 | 1,039 | 201 | 664 |
| ROAE | (11.6%) | (7.1%) | 12.6% | 21.1% | Net Investment Losses (Gains) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OP. ATO | 164.6% | 164.8% | 150.3% | 157.1% | Others | (392) | (353) | (2,700) | (127) |
| Cash Flow-Operating | (290) | (318) | (677) | 3,816 | |||||
| Gearing (x) | |||||||||
| Net Debt/ Equity | (0.2x) | (0.1x) | 0.1x | (0.1x) | (Purchase) of FA | (986) | (1,035) | (1,094) | (1,165) |
| Current Ratio | 2.1x | 2.0x | 2.2x | 27× | Sale of Fix Asset | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.3x | 1.1x | 1.2x | 1.7x | (Purchase)L-T Inv. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sale of L-T Inv. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Operating Cycle | Sale(Pur.)S-T Inv. | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| AR/NR Turnover (days) | 54 | 55 | 53 | 52 | Cash Flow-Investing | (1,211) | (1,035) | (1,094) | (1,165) |
| Inventory Turnover (days) | 132 | 130 | 123 | 124 | |||||
| AP Turnover (days) | 46 | 46 | 43 | 44 | Inc(Dec)-S-T Debt | (857) | 0 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| Cash Conversion (days) | 139 | 140 | 133 | (168) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 132 | Dividend Paid | 0 | |||||||
| Dir.&Emp.Bonus | 0 | 0 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Proceed from New Issue | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Dec/Inc-TreasureSt Others | 0 4,348 | 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 | |||||
| Cash Flow-Financing | 3,323 | 0 | 2,000 | 2,000 | |||||
| Change in Cash | 1,499 | (1,353) | 229 | 4,652 | |||||
| Net cash/(debt), b/f | 5,850 | 6,078 | |||||||
| Net cash/(debt), c/f | 5,704 7,203 | 7,203 5,850 | 6,078 | 10,730 |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch stimat s M Update
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Update