報告_MS_工業自動化JMTBA_20260729

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原始內容

M July 29, 2026 05:13 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Automation - Read-across from JMTBA June 2026 Orders

In this report, we focus on final JMTBA orders, which we believe could among the catalysts for Airtac's and Hiwin's share prices.

Per the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders grew 15% MoM and 53% YoY in June 2026 (vs. -6% MoM/+38% YoY in May 2026), to ¥203bn.

• Domestic orders +28% MoM/+46% YoY (vs. -8% MoM/+37% YoY in May), to ¥58bn.
• Overseas orders +10% MoM/+56% YoY (vs. -6% MoM/+38% YoY in May), to ¥145bn.
• By region:
• ° China: +10% MoM/+76% YoY, to ¥56bn
• ° Europe: +15% MoM/+22% YoY, to ¥19bn
• ° North America: +9% MoM/+44% YoY, to ¥41bn

Our view:

• Order growth for all three major regions remained solid on a YoY basis, pointing to a continuous up-cycle. This is consistent with manufacturing PMIs hovering above the 50 threshold, e.g., China, Europe, and North America at 50.3, 51.4, and 53.3, respectively, in June vs. 50.0, 51.6, and 54.0 in May.
• On top of the overall segment recovery within automation:
• ° Airtac (1590.TW, OW) should benefit from its own share gains and incremental contribution from linear motion components. Valuation appears undemanding at 20x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
• ° Hiwin (2049.TW, OW) should show margin expansion in the coming quarters, supported by higher utilization and price hikes. We see potential share price upside as the stock now trades at 27x 2027e P/E (vs. peak cycle valuation of 35-40x).

Update

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7689

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View

In-Line

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AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 29x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an up-cycle, we think applying a near-peak cycle valuation of 29x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
• n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation

Risks to Downside

• n Sharper economic downturn in China
• n Miniature linear guideway business development taking more time
• n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 37x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 44% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
• n Market share gains.
• n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker industrial automation demand.
• n More pricing pressure.
• n Market share loss.
• n More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.

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Disclosure Section

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