報告_MS_信驊5274_20261007

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_信驊5274_20261007_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-09）

原始內容

Aspeed Technology | Asia Pacific

Emerging competition from Marvell?

Marvell, at its Investor Day on October 6, 2026, unveiled a new semi-custom Al infrastructure management processor based on its 5nm OCTEON IP, tar etin workloads that the company said offered ~1,000x more performance than traditional server BMCs (baseboard mana ement controllers). Importantly, Marvell (covered by Joe Moore) said it already has pro rams with multiple hyperscalers.

Our preliminary view - We see this as more new TAM than direct competition for Aspeed in the near term. 1) We view this as IMC (infrastructure mana ement controller) (not BMC), with ASP of a few hundred US dollars and some volume from end of 2027 or early 2028. 2) Potentially a few clusters or a few racks will need one IMC. 3) Even if customers want to replace BMC with IMC directly, the whole rack architecture would need to be redesi ned, which we think is unlikely to happen in the near term.

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FCF yld ratio (%)** Leverage (EOP) (%)

0.6

0.9

1.5

2.1

(83.2) (78.8) (78.7) (80.4)

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus met odology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n Cost of equity of 9.8% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)
• nMedium-term rowth rate of 21.4%
• n Terminal rowth rate of 5.5%
• n Cash payout ratio of 85%

Risks to Upside

• n Stron er cloud demand
• n Faster-than-expected spec mi ration
• nMild competition

Risks to Downside

• n Softenin cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected spec mi ration
• n Intensified competition
• n Further policy ti htenin in China

M Update

Disclosu e Section

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