PDF 原檔：報告_MS_上銀_20260812_original.pdf
trim 腳本誤砍，已改用完整解析版
pdf_trim.py 因 MS 版式第 1 頁頁腳含免責聲明字串，誤將全篇實質內容一併砍掉（僅剩 91 行）。本檔已改用 pdf_parse.py 完整解析版（794 行）重建，僅刪除文末重複性法遵免責聲明、股票評等分佈、產業覆蓋清單等制式樣板段落（各份 MS 報告皆相同、非本篇獨有內容）。
原始內容
M August 12, 2026 02:56 PM GMT
Hiwin Technologies Corp. | Asia Pacific
Margin Expansion Playing Out amid Upcycle
| What's Changed Hiwin Technologies | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$400.00 | NT$450.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged (Impact to our thesis)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
The margin beat in 2Q26 should help sentiment and points to more upside for business fundamentals and the share price. We raise our PT to NT$450 (38x 2027e P/E) and remain OW.
2Q26 earnings beat on better GM: Off revenue of NT$7,508mn (+18% QoQ/+27% YoY), gross margin improved by 2.2ppt QoQ to 34.2%, surpassing MSe at 32.4% and consensus at 33.3%, mainly driven by higher utilization and price hikes during the quarter. Opex was largely in line at NT$1,531mn (opex ratio 20.4%), leading to operating profit at NT$1,034mn (operating margin 13.8%), 19% above MSe at NT$867mn (OPM 11.6%) and 9% above consensus at NT$948mn (OPM 12.9%). With narrower non-op gains of NT$46mn, NP came in at NT$848mn (EPS NT$2.40), 18% above MSe and 5% above consensus at NT$721mn (EPS NT$2.04) and NT$804mn (EPS NT$2.27), respectively.
Momentum sustained into 2H26: Delivery lead time has further lengthened to ~6 months for ball screws (vs. prior 4-5 months) and 4-5 months for linear guides (vs. prior ~4 months); this is a good indicator for solid demand. Management indicated that industrial automation, semiconductor and AI-related infrastructure builds are the major demand drivers this year. Specifically from the AI capex cycle, Hiwin is riding tailwinds of capacity expansion from mechanical component suppliers in the rack, thermal modules, connector, etc. space. We expect revenue to grow QoQ in both 3Q26 and 4Q26, with margins also expanding vs. 2Q26. Moreover, if the demand remains at a buoyed level, we think Hiwin might have the bargaining power to further raise its selling prices in the coming quarters.
Robotics remains key focus: Hiwin continues to see growth in its robotics segment, especially from wafer transport systems and some small volume shipments for logistics robots. 1H26 segment revenue grew 59% YoY to account for 12% of revenue (9% in 2025), and we expect the mix to rise in the coming years.
Stay OW: We believe the better-than-expected margins in 2Q26 should help sentiment. As we mentioned previously, Hiwin tends to benefit from both revenue growth and margin expansion in an upcycle, and numbers now point in that direction. We remain constructive and raise PT ~13% to NT$450 (38x 2027e P/E).
Financial results versus consensus: Modest upside. Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS: Modest revision higher.
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW, 2049 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$450.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 22 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 12, 2026) | NT$369.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$426.00-180.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 354 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | US$4,051 |
| EV, curr (mn) | US$4,039 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | US$41 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 4.31 | 9.77 | 11.77 | 13.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 8.77 | 10.77 | 12.77 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 24,263 | 29,992 | 34,688 | 39,123 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,001 | 6,485 | 7,488 | 8,431 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT$ mn) | 1,526 | 3,457 | 4,165 | 4,873 |
| P/E | 45.0 | 37.8 | 31.3 | 26.8 |
| P/BV | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| RNOA (%) | 3.6 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 12.7 |
| ROE (%) | 4.1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6 | 19.5 | 16.6 | 14.5 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework. ** = Based on consensus methodology; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Results Summary（Exhibit 1）
| NT$mn | Actual 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | MS estimates | Diff (%) | Consensus | Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 7,508 | 18% | 27% | 7,490 | 0% | 7,328 | 2% |
| COGS | -4,943 | 14% | 19% | -5,066 | -2% | -4,889 | 1% |
| Gross profit | 2,565 | 26% | 46% | 2,424 | 6% | 2,439 | 5% |
| Operating expenses | -1,531 | 9% | 21% | -1,556 | -2% | -1,491 | 3% |
| Operating Income | 1,034 | 64% | 107% | 867 | 19% | 948 | 9% |
| Non-operating income | 46 | -48% | -111% | 10 | 357% | 27 | 72% |
| Pre-tax Income | 1,080 | 50% | 1475% | 877 | 23% | 975 | 11% |
| Net Income | 848 | 46% | 527% | 721 | 18% | 804 | 5% |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.40 | 46% | 527% | 2.04 | 18% | 2.27 | 5% |
| Gross margin | 34.2% | +2.2ppt | +4.4ppt | 32.4% | +1.8ppt | 33.3% | +0.9ppt |
| Operating margin | 13.8% | +3.9ppt | +5.4ppt | 11.6% | +2.2ppt | 12.9% | +0.8ppt |
| Pre-tax margin | 14.4% | +3.1ppt | +13.2ppt | 11.7% | +2.7ppt | 13.3% | +1.1ppt |
| Net margin | 11.3% | +2.2ppt | +9.0ppt | 9.6% | +1.7ppt | 11.0% | +0.3ppt |
Source: Company data, FactSet consensus, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Quarterly Financial Summary（Exhibit 2，節錄年度欄）
| NT$ mn | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 24,263 | 29,992 | 34,688 |
| Gross profit | 6,978 | 10,294 | 11,985 |
| Operating income | 1,643 | 4,127 | 5,114 |
| Net income | 1,526 | 3,457 | 4,165 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.31 | 9.77 | 11.77 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 28.8 | 34.3 | 34.6 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 6.8 | 13.8 | 14.7 |
| Net Margin (%) | 6.3 | 11.5 | 12.0 |
2Q26 單季：Net sales 7,508；COGS -4,943；Gross profit 2,565；Operating expenses -1,531；Operating income 1,034；Net income 848；EPS 2.40；Gross Margin 34.2%；Operating Margin 13.8%；Net Margin 11.3%（QoQ Sales +18%、Gross Profit +26%、Operating Profit +64%、Net Profit +46%；YoY Sales +27%、Gross Profit +46%、Operating Profit +107%、Net Profit +527%）。3Q26E/4Q26E：Net sales 7,996／8,108；Operating income 1,210／1,253；EPS 2.82／2.92。
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates.
Financial Summary（Exhibit 3，節錄）
Consolidated Income Statement
| NT$ mn (Year End Dec 31) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 24,392 | 24,263 | 29,992 | 34,688 | 39,123 |
| Gross profit | 7,218 | 6,978 | 10,294 | 11,985 | 13,622 |
| Operating income | 2,059 | 1,643 | 4,127 | 5,114 | 6,010 |
| Pre-tax income | 2,250 | 1,764 | 4,262 | 5,114 | 6,010 |
| Net income | 1,972 | 1,526 | 3,457 | 4,165 | 4,873 |
| Reported EPS (NT$) | 5.57 | 4.31 | 9.77 | 11.77 | 13.77 |
Consolidated Balance Sheet（節錄）
| NT$ mn (Year End Dec 31) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7,624 | 12,687 | 16,177 | 19,832 |
| Total Assets | 54,176 | 61,700 | 68,061 | 74,779 |
| Total Liabilities | 16,702 | 21,482 | 24,699 | 27,799 |
| Total Shareholders' Equity | 37,474 | 40,218 | 43,362 | 46,980 |
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement（節錄）
| NT$ mn (Year End Dec 31) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cashflow | 4,277 | 7,756 | 5,932 | 6,716 |
| Capex | -2,766 | -2,579 | -2,983 | -3,365 |
| Net change in cash | 270 | 5,063 | 3,489 | 3,655 |
Consolidated Financial Ratios（節錄）
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (%) | 28.8 | 34.3 | 34.6 | 34.8 |
| Operating margin (%) | 6.8 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 15.4 |
| Net margin (%) | 6.3 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| ROAE (%) | 4 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Cash dividend payout (%) | 46 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates.
Estimate Revisions（Exhibit 4）
We raise our EPS estimates by 11% for 2026, 9% for 2027, and 8% for 2028 to factor in the strong 2Q26 results along with management's positive outlook into 2H26.
| NT$ mn | 2026E New | 2026E Old | %diff | 2027E New | 2027E Old | %diff | 2028E New | 2028E Old | %diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 29,992 | 30,109 | 0% | 34,688 | 34,798 | 0% | 39,123 | 39,406 | -1% |
| Gross profit | 10,294 | 9,832 | 5% | 11,985 | 11,449 | 5% | 13,622 | 13,061 | 4% |
| Operating income | 4,127 | 3,618 | 14% | 5,114 | 4,549 | 12% | 6,010 | 5,443 | 10% |
| Net income | 3,457 | 3,102 | 11% | 4,165 | 3,809 | 9% | 4,873 | 4,517 | 8% |
| EPS (NT$) | 9.77 | 8.77 | 11% | 11.77 | 10.77 | 9% | 13.77 | 12.77 | 8% |
| Gross margin | 34.3% | 32.7% | — | 34.6% | 32.9% | — | 34.8% | 33.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 13.8% | 12.0% | — | 14.7% | 13.1% | — | 15.4% | 13.8% | — |
Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates.
Valuation Methodology
Price target - NT$450（原 NT$400）：base-case，38x（原 37x）2027 EPS estimate。上調目標倍數反映 upcycle 中的強勁展望；37x P/E 視為合理（峰值循環估值區間 35-40x），並由 2025-28E 47% EPS CAGR 支撐。P/E 法較能反映工業自動化零組件的獲利成長動能（市場情緒隨景氣循環移動）。
Bull-case - NT$600（原 NT$535）：51x（原 50x）2027 base-case EPS。反映更強勁的產業上行需求＋人形機器人業務早於預期貢獻。
Bear-case - NT$190（原 NT$170）：16x（不變）2027 base-case EPS。反映總經走弱導致 capex 放緩、壓抑自動化零組件需求。
Exhibit 5: NTM P/E chart（12M forward consensus P/E，2020/01-2026/06，含 ±1/2 StDev 帶）— 見圖片清單。
Risk Reward（節錄）
NT$450.00 PRICE TARGET — Base case, P/E，38x 2027 EPS estimate（47% 2025-28E operating profit CAGR 支撐）。現價 NT$361.57（Risk Reward chart 基準日）。
Key Earnings Inputs
| Drivers | Dec 2025 | Dec 2026e | Dec 2027e | Dec 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball Screw shipment YoY (%) | 2.7 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 11.8 |
| Linear Guideway shipment YoY (%) | (2.1) | 14.8 | 8.0 | 11.9 |
| Ball Screw ASP YoY (%) | (1.7) | 4.6 | 5.1 | (0.0) |
| Linear Guideway ASP YoY (%) | (1.5) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Investment Drivers：Revenue momentum amid increasing demand；Long-term structural demand from China's industrial automation penetration rate；Capex for the industrials industry。
Global Revenue Exposure：APAC ex Japan/Mainland China/India 50-60%；Mainland China 10-20%；Europe ex UK 10-20%；Japan/North America/UK 各 0-10%（Exhibit 見圖片清單）。
Risks to Upside：Stronger industrial automation demand pickup；Market share gains；Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids。
Risks to Downside：Weaker industrial automation demand；More pricing pressure；Market share loss；More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks。
MS Estimates vs. Consensus（FY Dec 2026e）：Sales/Revenue MSe 29,992 vs Mean 28,554（consensus 24,686 未上修基期）；EPS MSe 9.77 vs Mean 8.03；ROE MSe 9.2% vs Mean 7.4%（見圖片清單）。
以下法遵樣板段落（Disclosure Section 全文、Stock Ratings 定義、Global Stock Ratings Distribution、Industry Coverage 個股清單等，見原始 PDF）與其他 MS 報告重複，trim 時省略，不影響研究內容完整性。
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-13）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_002.png |
74968 bytes | 真資料圖 | 12M forward consensus P/E 折線圖（2020/01-2026/06），含均值與 ±1/±2 StDev 帶 |
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_003.png |
28771 bytes | 真資料圖 | Risk Reward 目標價情境圖：現價 NT$369、熊市 NT$190（-48.5%）／基準 NT$450（+22.0%）／牛市 NT$600（+62.6%） |
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_004.png |
20709 bytes | 真資料圖 | Global Revenue Exposure 環圈圖：APAC ex Japan/中國大陸/印度 50-60%、中國大陸 10-20%、歐洲 ex UK 10-20%、日本/北美/英國各 0-10% |
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_005.png |
44077 bytes | 真資料圖 | MS Estimates vs. Consensus 菱形對比圖（FY2026e）：Sales/EBIT/Net income/EPS/ROE，MS 估值皆高於市場均值 |
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_006.png |
73043 bytes | 真資料圖 | 股價（藍線）＋目標價階梯（紅虛線）＋評等變動標記走勢圖，2023/08-2026/08，最新目標價 400（本次報告上修至 450，圖表基期早於本次調升） |
報告_MS_上銀_20260812_001.png |
66535 bytes | 裝飾·banner | "Asia Summer School 2026" 廣告 banner，非資料圖 |