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129KB | 真資料圖 | Ibiden（4062.T）股價走勢圖（2023-12 至 2026-10，由約 ¥1,778 升至高點約 ¥13,000 後回落約 ¥9,500）與 JPM 評等沿革表（02-Dec-23 OW 目標 2,250；22-Jul-25 N 1,625；10-Oct-25 OW 3,225；04-Dec-25 OW 3,500；23-Mar-26 OW 5,100；08-May-26 OW 9,200；15-Jul-26 OW 14,250；09-Oct-26 OW 14,350）。屬股價／目標價沿革圖，不嵌 |
原始內容
Ibiden (4 62)
Agreement with NVIDIA involves multibillion-dollar capacity reservation advance
On October 21 (US time), NVIDIA announced lans to ex and roduction ca acity in collaboration with Ibiden, Unimicron Technology, Samsung ElectroMechanics (SEMCO), Amkor Technology, Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), and King Yuan Electronics (KYEC). In ABF substrates, the lan is to increase substrate roduction ca acity by 2.5x over the next three years, with further initiatives already underway. Under an agreement concluded and announced earlier in 2026, NVIDIA is roviding a multibillion dollar ca acity reservation advance to Ibiden for its Ono lant. Ibiden aims to increase manufacturing ca acity at the Ono lant to 3x the current level, with the added ca acity scheduled to go into full-scale o eration in 1Q 2028.
In addition, SEMCO is newly joining NVIDIA's substrate su ly chain. SEMCO will immediately start su lying com onents to NVIDIA from its existing facilities in South Korea, and NVIDIA will rovide su ort to SEMCO for facility u grades and new lant construction in Sejong and Busan. By 2028, roduction for NVIDIA is rojected to account for a significant ortion of SEMCO's annual ackage substrate roduction ca acity. Also, NVIDIA will rovide su ort to Unimicron, through a ca acity reservation advance, for an ex ansion of that com any's KF substrate manufacturing in Taiwan. Additions to ca acity will begin in 2Q 2027, with full ca acity scheduled to be achieved by mid-2028.
- Our view: We believe Ibiden is increasing ca acity at the Ono lant rimarily to su ly NVIDIA, and management has reviously stated that investments in roduction increases will be funded by customers, so the agreement with NVIDIA is not a articular sur rise. Construction at the Ono lant com rises four hases. Phase 1 went into service in late FY2025, and Phases 2-4 are res ectively scheduled to do so in late FY2026, late FY2027, and late FY2028. Although NVIDIA's ress release states that the additional ca acity at the Ono lant will go into full-scale o eration in 1Q 2028, it is unclear whether this refers to CY2028 or NVIDIA's FY2028. We will seek clarification on this detail when Ibiden re orts earnings results. In addition to the above, we highlight several other develo ments. These include, in addition to the current lan to increase roduction at the Ono lant's Cell 8, the u coming announcement of ca acity increases at the Ono lant's Cell 9 and the Gama lant's Cell 7 (and the timetable for ram ing u roduction), as well as the otential acquisition of fabs externally. Regarding Ibiden's share of NVIDIA's business, we think it could be de ressed slightly as a result of the addition of SEMCO as a su lier. However, we believe Ibiden will basically maintain its osition as the leading su lier. Given the tightness of su ly/demand throughout the ABF substrate industry, we believe Ibiden's osition within the industry remains solid. In our view, the critical factors will be the degree to which Ibiden is able to secure the resources it needs, and whether it can successfully carry out its ca acity ex ansion lans.
Overweight
4 62.T, 4 62 JP
rice (21 Oct 26):¥9,500
Price Target (Dec-27):¥14,35
Japan Equity Research
Technology - Electronic Components
Akinori Kanemoto AC
(81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com
Ikki Shibata
(81-3) 6736 8641 ikki.shibata@jpmorgan.com J Morgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.
ROIC Valuation
| ROIC Valuation | ||||||||||||||||
| FY | FY3/2016 | FY3/2017 | FY3/2018 | FY3/2019 | FY3/2020 | FY3/2021 | FY3/2022 | FY3/2023 | FY3/2024 | FY3/2025 | FY3/2026 | FY3/2027E | FY3/2028E | FY3/2029E | FY3/2030E | FY3/2031E |
| JPY mn | ||||||||||||||||
| NOPAT | 15,405 | 8,604 | 11,786 | 4,958 | 14,018 | 32,108 | 50,809 | 54,901 | 34,180 | 34,999 | 46,697 | 97,185 | 130,222 | 186,845 | 263,702 | 311,377 |
| yoy % chg. | - | -44.15% | 37.00% | -57.94% | 182.76% | 129.06% | 58.24% | 8.05% | -37.74% | 2.40% | 33.42% | 108.12% | 33.99% | 43.48% | 41.13% | 18.08% |
| Invested Capital | 402,441 | 332,668 | 359,036 | 345,394 | 421,145 | 475,666 | 541,902 | 690,928 | 854,452 | 834,130 | 732,841 | 817,057 | 928,321 | 1,093,416 | 1,326,136 | 1,600,946 |
| yoy % chg. | - | -17.34% | 7.93% | -3.80% | 21.93% | 12.95% | 13.92% | 27.50% | 23.67% | -2.38% | -12.14% | 11.49% | 13.62% | 17.78% | 21.28% | 20.72% |
| ROIC | 3.83% | 2.34% | 3.41% | 1.41% | 3.66% | 7.16% | 9.99% | 8.91% | 4.42% | 4.15% | 5.96% | 12.54% | 14.92% | 18.48% | 21.80% | 21.28% |
| WACC | 8.01% | 7.11% | 7.41% | 7.08% | 6.66% | 7.09% | 4.81% | 5.76% | 8.34% | 6.49% | 11.65% | 6.72% | 6.72% | 6.72% | 6.72% | 6.72% |
| ROIC-WACC | -4.18% | -4.77% | -4.01% | -5.68% | -3.00% | 0.08% | 5.18% | 3.15% | -3.92% | -2.35% | -5.69% | 5.82% | 8.20% | 11.77% | 15.08% | 14.56% |
| ROIC/WACC | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.55 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 1.55 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 1.87 | 2.22 | 2.75 | 3.24 | 3.17 |
| EV/IC | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 1.04 | 1.39 | 0.82 | 1.12 | 0.89 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| EV | 165,824 | 117,340 | 153,869 | 144,345 | 246,884 | 493,607 | 753,627 | 565,251 | 960,717 | 743,559 | 845,796 | 941,279 | 1,063,102 | 1,098,011 | 1,163,398 | 1,083,223 |
| MV | 242,721 | 195,566 | 253,578 | 226,949 | 306,466 | 538,515 | 833,827 | 658,982 | 1,090,892 | 757,952 | 900,336 | 900,336 | 900,336 | 900,336 | 900,336 | 900,336 |
| Theoretical Enterprise Value | 192,438 | 109,498 | 165,024 | 68,630 | 231,424 | 480,736 | 1,125,944 | 1,068,415 | 453,125 | 532,709 | 374,891 | 1,525,191 | 2,061,917 | 3,008,294 | 4,302,740 | 5,069,974 |
| ΔTheoretical Enterprise Value | - | -82,939 | 55,525 | -96,394 | 162,794 | 249,312 | 645,208 | -57,529 | -615,290 | 79,584 | -157,817 | 1,150,300 | 536,726 | 946,377 | 1,294,446 | 767,234 |
| ΔIC | - | -69,773 | 26,368 | -13,642 | 75,751 | 54,521 | 66,236 | 149,026 | 163,524 | -20,322 | -101,289 | 84,216 | 111,264 | 165,095 | 232,720 | 274,810 |
| ΔEVA/WACC | - | -13,166 | 29,157 | -82,752 | 87,043 | 194,791 | 578,972 | -206,555 | -778,814 | 99,906 | -56,528 | 1,066,084 | 425,462 | 781,282 | 1,061,726 | 492,424 |
| Total | - | -82,939 | 55,525 | -96,394 | 162,794 | 249,312 | 645,208 | -57,529 | -615,290 | 79,584 | -157,817 | 1,150,300 | 536,726 | 946,377 | 1,294,446 | 767,234 |
| Theoretical Market Capitalization | 230,275 | 143,618 | 212,779 | 112,092 | 256,545 | 457,446 | 1,141,506 | 1,100,804 | 473,134 | 488,305 | 397,146 | 1,451,962 | 1,866,865 | 2,778,334 | 4,007,393 | 4,854,802 |
| Valuation per share (JPY) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000 | 2,000 100.00% | 2,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 3,200 | 4,700 | 6,800 | 8,200 |
| yoy % chg. | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00% | -50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 60.00% | 46.88% | 44.68% | 20.59% | |
| Deviation from Actual Stock Price | -100.00% | -100.00% | -100.00% | -100.00% | -100.00% | 3.69% | 33.94% | 69.53% | -45.78% | -22.01% | -34.34% | -83.07% | -72.90% | -60.20% | -42.42% | -30.57% |
| Implied P/E (x) | 30.58 | -2.29 | 18.37 | 33.91 | 22.64 | 17.80 | 27.68 | 21.09 | 15.02 | 14.49 | 6.23 | 15.51 | 14.78 | 15.19 | 15.39 | 15.76 |
| Implied EV/EBITDA (x) | 2.89 | 2.72 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 5.27 | 6.49 | 9.11 | 8.39 | 4.84 | 5.23 | 2.92 | 7.00 | 7.39 | 8.14 | 8.76 | 8.90 |
| Implied PBR (x) | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.96 | 1.45 | 3.13 | 2.63 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.72 | 2.29 | 2.51 | 3.05 | 3.51 | 3.43 |
Source: Company report, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: Market capitalization as o Oct 8. Implied P/E is on a ully diluted basis.
Risks to Rating and Price Target Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating
- Better-than-ex ected rofitability im rovement for FC-BGA substrates for major CPU makers
- Yen de reciation
- Further market share growth for AI GPU substrates, volume u side for ASIC substrates
Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Ibiden (4 62)(Overweight; Price Target: ¥14,350)
Investment Thesis
In addition Ibiden's dominant market share in substrates for GPUs for AI servers, we also ex ect it to see major earnings growth in EMIB substrates for ASICs and in standard ABF substrates from growing demand for AI servers. We believe the com any is well- ositioned to maximize benefits from the shift to larger and higher multi-layered FC-BGA substrates for AI server-use GPUs because of its strong technological abilities.
Valuation
Our December 2027 rice target of ¥14,350 is based on (1) the ¥8,200 value derived from a zero-growth ROIC model (EV/IC = ROIC/WACC) using our FY2030 estimates (Rf = 2.57%, R = 5.15%, beta = 1.30, WACC = 6.72%) lus (2) Ibiden's 75% remium to the sector-average P/E (from August 2025 to Se tember 2026, 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus basis), reflecting the rise in Ibiden's share rice since August 2025 on ex ectations for earnings growth for AI server a lications.
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com
- Inventory adjustments for AI servers, eaking-out of AI investment cycle
- Market share decline for BGA substrates for AI GPUs
- Procurement difficulties for core materials
- Roadma delays in logic semiconductors, AI servers, etc.
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com
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