PDF 原檔：報告_GS_iPhoneDuo摺疊機預購_20261019_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-20）
| 檔名 | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|
| 報告_GS_iPhoneDuo摺疊機預購_20261019_001.png（16KB，小於 40KB 仍抽驗） | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1 全球摺疊智慧型手機出貨堆疊直條圖（m units，Apple／Others）：2023 18.2、2024 18.7、2025 20.2（皆 Others）；2026E 合計 35.0（Apple 13.3／Others 21.7）；2027E 合計 66.1（Apple 32.6／Others 33.4）；2028E 合計 76.6（Apple 36.1／Others 40.5） |
原始內容
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GC Tech: iPhone Duo foldable phones see strong pre-orders; New form factor / Premium models attract consumption
Strong pre-order echoes our positive view on foldable phones: As we had expected (see our Aug 2024 report link), in September Apple launched its first foldable iPhone-the iPhone Duo-and it is seeing strong pre-orders: the estimated delivery dates were reportedly pushed past the Oct 23 official launch date and into next year within minutes of pre-orders opening on Oct 16 (news link); JD.com and Tmall also reportedly sold out within one minute of going live (news link). This reaffirms our positive view that (1) new form factor brings new use cases and product differentiation, attracting consumers; (2) consumption is moving toward premium models, which is positive for foldable iPhones: foldable phones' global blended ASP increased from US$1,228 (LTM, as of 1Q25) to US$1,392 (LTM, as of 2Q26), with premium brands enjoying the lion's share of the market: Huawei has 50% global market share as of 2Q26 with global blended ASP at US$1,600, per IDC; and (3) leading brands tend to suffer less through cycles: iPhone shipment increased 3% QoQ in 3Q26, outperforming the market at 8% QoQ decline, per IDC. We continue to expect foldable iPhone shipments at 13m / 33m in 2026 / 27E (report link), with the potential for up to 35m / 66m in 2026 / 27E in a blue sky scenario (report link). We are positive on the Apple supply chain (Exhibit 2): Buy: Hon Hai (on CL), SZS, AVC, Lingyi, Luxshare, VPEC, FII, Largan, NYPCB (on CL), EMC, ZDT, Kinsus, Delta, and TSMC.
Exhibit 1: Global foldable smartphones shipment
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
We attribute the strong demand for the iPhone Duo to: (1) Designed for a wide audience: 5.4' / 7.6' folded / unfolded size, which can be held in one hand, fits in a
pocket, and is the thinnest iPhone ever, meaning it is easy to carry, and can penetrate
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Michael Ng, CFA +1(212)902-8618 | michael.ng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Chao Wang +886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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to a wider population. The phone also supports Apple pencil, which could also attract pencil users. (2) The latest technology with new form factor: hinges with more than 100 tiny precision components, an under-display front camera, and the next generation of Vapor Chamber. The new form factor will also bring new use cases, which should also help to attract consumers. The phone's ability to detect the hinge angle enables it to switch between different software modes seamlessly, enhancing user experience (news link). (3) Affordable price: starting from US$1,999, despite high memory costs and strong specifications (for context, the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra launched in the US starting from US$2,099.99).
Exhibit 2: Greater China Tech supply chain's revenue exposure to Apple by company
| Company | Ticker | Analyst | Total Apple exposure in 2026E - Sales exposure | Total Apple exposure in 2026E - OP exposure Products/services | iPhone | Revenue | Revenue - iPad Watch exposure | Revenue - Macbook by end | Revenue - Air Pod products in 2026E | Revenue - MR | Revenue - Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camera | |||||||||||
| Sunny Optical | 2382.HK | Verena Jeng | 4% | 5%Handset lens | 4% | <1% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Largan | 3008.TW | Verena Jeng | 45-50% | 45-50%Handset lens | 40-45% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <5% | 0% |
| Semiconductors | |||||||||||
| Win Semi | 3105.TWO | Chao Wang | 35-40% | 35-40%PA, VCSEL | 35% | 1-2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| TSMC | 2330.TW | Allen Chang | 20-25% | 18-22%Logic foundry | 15-18% | <3% | <1% | <3% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| JCET | 600584.SS | Allen Chang | 25-30% | 25-30%IC packaging, SiP | 10-15% | 5-10% | <5% | 0% | <5% | 0% | 0% |
| VPEC | 2455.TW | Verena Jeng | 10-20% | 10-15%PA epi-wafer | 10-15% | <1% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Acoustics | |||||||||||
| AAC | 2018.HK | Verena Jeng | 30-35% | 35-40%Acoustics, haptics, Notebook | casing 20% | 1-2% | <1% | <5% | 1-2% | 0% | <5% |
| Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | |||||||||
| BOE | 000725.SZ | Verena Jeng | 10-20% | 10-20% Panels | 5-15% | <5% | 0% | <5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Metal precision parts | |||||||||||
| Lingyi | 002600.SZ | Verena Jeng | 25-35% | 45-55%Precision components and | modules 25-30% | <5% | <5% | <5% | <5% | <5% | 3% |
| SZS | 3376.TW | Verena Jeng | 75-85% | 80-85% Hinges | 40-45% | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 25-30% | <5% | <5% |
| PCB | |||||||||||
| EMC | 2383.TW | Chao Wang | <5% | 5-10% CCL | 3% | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Unimicron | 3037.TW | Chao Wang | 20-25% | 20-25%PCB / BT (AiP) / ABF | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 5-10% | <3% | <3% | <3% |
| NYPCB | 8046.TW | Chao Wang | 15-20% | 15-20%PCB / BT (SiP) | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <3% | 0% |
| ZDT | 4958.TW | Chao Wang | 60-65% | 60-65% PCB | 40-45% | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <5% | <3% | 1-3% |
| Kinsus | 3189.TW | Chao Wang | 20-25% | 25-30%BT (AiP) | 10-15% | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 1% | <3% | 1% |
| Casing | |||||||||||
| FII Battery / thermal modules | 601138.SS cable | Verena Jeng | 0-5% | 5-10%Metal middle frame | 0-5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Delta AVC | 2308.TW 3017.TW | Chao Wang Chao Wang | 10-15% 5% | 10-15%Power supplies, Inductor 5%Thermal modules | 5-10% 5% | <3% <1% | 0% 0% | <5% <1% | 0% 0% | 0% 0% | 0% 0% |
| ODM / EMS | |||||||||||
| Hon Hai | 2317.TW | Allen Chang | 30-35% | 35-40%EMS/ODM, metal middle | frame 20-25% | 5% | 1% | 5% | <5% | <5% | <5% |
| BYDE | 0285.HK | Verena Jeng | 40-45% | 40-45%ODM, casing | 15-20% | 15-20% | <5% | - | - | 0% | - |
| Quanta | 2382.TW | Chao Wang | 5-10% | 5-10% EMS/ODM | - | - | - | 5-10% | - | ||
| ODM | 57% | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| Pegatron | 4938.TW | Chao Wang | 57% | 50% | - | - | - | - | |||
| Luxshare | 2475.HK | Verena Jeng | 50-55% | 40-45%ODM, connectors, acoustics/haptics | 20-35% | <5% | 10-15% | 10-15% | 5-10% | 0% | <5% |
| Equipment | |||||||||||
| ASMPT | 0522.HK | Allen Chang | <5% | <5%SMT equipment | <5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
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