PDF 原檔：報告_GS_聯亞3081_20261101_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_聯亞3081_20261101_001.png |
20KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5 下方估值表：2029E target P/E 61.5、Target multiple x EPS 5,485、Discounted back to 2027 TP (NTD) 4,490.0、Implied 2027 P/E 121；COE 假設 Beta 1.7、Risk free 1.6%、Market risk premium 5.1%、COE 10.5% |
報告_GS_聯亞3081_20261101_002.png |
29KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：LandMark 12M forward P/E 折線（2017-01 至 2026 年底，x 軸；中間 2021–2022 與 2022-07 至 2024-07 有斷檔），標示 +1stv. 91x、avg. 62x、-1stv. 34x；2025–2026 兩段高點約 140–150x |
報告_GS_聯亞3081_20261101_003.png |
29KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：LandMark QFII 外資持股比率折線（2019-01 至 2026-09，來源 TEJ），起點 55%、2024 年初低點 12%、2026-09 約 18% |
報告_GS_聯亞3081_20261101_004.png |
75KB | 真資料圖 | LandMark（3081.TWO）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023–2026，標示 Rating、Price target、Price target at removal，標註目標價含 4,307、4,401 等，疊加 Taiwan SE Weighted Index；資料至 2026-09-30） |
原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
LandMark (3081.TWO): 4Q26 revenues to see sequential growth on SiPh ramp up; 3Q26 beat; Buy
Landmark 3Q26 GM continued to improve to 58.6% (vs. 3Q25/ 2Q26 at 43.6%/ 57.5%), or higher than our and Bloomberg consensus by 3.4ppts/ 1.0ppts, supported by mix upgrade and larger business scale. 3Q26 NI was up 33% QoQ (or 528% YoY) to NT$621m, beat our and Bloomberg consensus by 23%/ 5%, and we attribute it to better margin and improvement of operational efficiency. The data center revenues contribution remained high in 3Q26 at 80%-85% of total revenues, driven by ramp up of SiPh (Silicon Photonics) CW laser and diodes. Looking ahead, management expects 4Q26 revenues to see double digit QoQ growth, supported by continuous capacity expansion and strong orders. Management highlights the company has signed long-term agreement with clients and InP substrate suppliers, and remains positive on the strong growth in 2027/ 28E. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: Landmark 3Q26 result snapshot
| NT$m | 3Q25 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | Act / Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 553 | 1,221 | 1,562 | 28% | 183% | 1,562 | 0% | 1,565 | 0% |
| GP | 241 | 702 | 915 | 30% | 279% | 863 | 6% | 901 | 1% |
| OP | 105 | 573 | 771 | 35% | 636% | 618 | 25% | ||
| Net income | 99 | 468 | 621 | 33% | 528% | 505 | 23% | 594 | 5% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 43.6% | 57.5% | 58.6% | 55.2% | 57.6% | ||||
| OPM | 19.0% | 46.9% | 49.4% | 39.6% | |||||
| NM | 17.9% | 38.4% | 39.8% | 32.3% | 38.0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
3-month preview: Landmark's Sep revenues were up 190% YoY/ 4% MoM to NT$540m, supported by strong demand on 800G / 1.6T SiPh optical modules and better InP substrate supply. Looking ahead, we expect company's Oct/ Nov/ Dec revenues to see sequential MoM growth at 5%/ 5%/ 8%, resulting in 4Q revenues growth at 16% QoQ to NT$1.8bn, with company's continuous capacity expansion.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 2: We expect Landmark Oct 2026E revenues to grow 182% YoY to NT$568m Landmark monthly/ quarterly revenues
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 421 | 501 | 520 | 540 | 568 | 596 | 644 | 1,221 | 1,562 | 1,807 |
| YoY | 128% | 177% | 181% | 190% | 182% | 183% | 179% | 121% | 183% | 181% |
| MoM/QoQ | 4% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 35% | 28% | 16% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 416 | 442 | 506 | 505 | 1,123 | 1,556 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 1% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Landmark 3Q26 result and revise up earnings by 9%/ 3%/ 2%/ 1% in 2026-29E mainly on higher revenues of SiPh CW lasers, supported by strong client demand and capacity expansion. We revise up GM by 1ppts in 2026E on mix upgrade, and revise down Opex ratio in 2026-29E to reflect improving operational efficiency amid the larger scale.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % | 2029E - Old | 2029E - New | 2029E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 5,348 | 5,495 | 3% | 9,586 | 9,704 | 1% | 15,099 | 15,242 | 1% | 22,498 | 22,711 | 1% |
| GP | 2,979 | 3,114 | 5% | 5,370 | 5,438 | 1% | 8,520 | 8,602 | 1% | 12,936 | 13,059 | 1% |
| OP | 2,301 | 2,534 | 10% | 4,506 | 4,678 | 4% | 7,345 | 7,550 | 3% | 11,182 | 11,287 | 1% |
| Pre-tax income | 2,364 | 2,581 | 9% | 4,562 | 4,705 | 3% | 7,435 | 7,612 | 2% | 11,272 | 11,349 | 1% |
| Net income | 1,891 | 2,065 | 9% | 3,649 | 3,764 | 3% | 5,948 | 6,089 | 2% | 9,017 | 9,079 | 1% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||
| GM | 55.7% | 56.7% | 1ppts | 56.0% | 56.0% | 0ppts | 56.4% | 56.4% | 0ppts | 57.5% | 57.5% | 0ppts |
| OPM | 43.0% | 46.1% | 3.1ppts | 47.0% | 48.2% | 1.2ppts | 48.6% | 49.5% | 0.9ppts | 49.7% | 49.7% | 0ppts |
| NM | 35.4% | 37.6% | 2.2ppts | 38.1% | 38.8% | 0.7ppts | 39.4% | 39.9% | 0.6ppts | 40.1% | 40.0% | -0.1ppts |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Landmark P&L Summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,495 | 9,704 | 15,242 | 455 | 553 | 553 | 642 | 904 | 1,221 | 1,562 | 1,807 |
| Gross profit | 138 | 239 | 941 | 3,114 | 5,438 | 8,602 | 147 | 240 | 241 | 313 | 495 | 702 | 915 | 1,002 |
| OP income | (280) | (112) | 508 | 2,534 | 4,678 | 7,550 | 45 | 150 | 105 | 209 | 373 | 573 | 771 | 817 |
| Pretax income | (264) | (68) | 525 | 2,581 | 4,705 | 7,612 | 53 | 121 | 124 | 227 | 397 | 586 | 777 | 822 |
| Net income | (212) | (55) | 411 | 2,065 | 3,764 | 6,089 | 42 | 97 | 99 | 190 | 318 | 468 | 621 | 658 |
| EPS (NT$) | (2.10) | (0.54) | 4.21 | 20.29 | 36.99 | 59.85 | 0.42 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 1.87 | 3.12 | 4.60 | 6.11 | 6.46 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 13.1% | 19.8% | 42.7% | 56.7% | 56.0% | 56.4% | 32.3% | 43.3% | 43.6% | 48.7% | 54.8% | 57.5% | 58.6% | 55.5% |
| Operating margin | -26.5% | -9.3% | 23.1% | 46.1% | 48.2% | 49.5% | 9.8% | 27.0% | 19.0% | 32.5% | 41.3% | 46.9% | 49.4% | 45.2% |
| Net margin | -20.0% | -4.5% | 18.7% | 37.6% | 38.8% | 39.9% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 29.6% | 35.1% | 38.4% | 39.8% | 36.4% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -56% | 14% | 82% | 149% | 77% | 57% | 40% | 103% | 71% | 122% | 99% | 121% | 183% | 181% |
| Gross profit | -82% | 73% | 294% | 231% | 75% | 58% | 638% | 503% | 171% | 247% | 237% | 193% | 279% | 221% |
| OP income | na | na | na | 399% | 85% | 61% | 18% | na | 1176% | na | 734% | 283% | 636% | 291% |
| Net income | na | na | na | 402% | 82% | 62% | 20% | na | 1139%2233% | 651% | 384% | 528% | 245% | |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 57% | 22% | 0% | 16% | 41% | 35% | 28% | 16% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 63% | 63% | 1% | 30% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 10% | ||||||
| OP income | -849% | 234% | -30% | 99% | 79% | 53% | 35% | 6% | ||||||
| Net income | 418% | 129% | 2% | 92% | 67% | 48% | 33% | 6% | ||||||
| EBITDA | 55% | 81% | -21% | 69% | 52% | 43% | 30% | 5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology (unchanged) and apply a 61.5x (unchanged, report link) target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, discounted back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6%, and market risk premium at 5.1% - unchanged). Our target P/E multiple of 61.5x is derived from the PEG&M ratio of peers (unchanged) in the photonics supply chain. Consequently, our 12-month target price is now NT$4,490 (vs. previously at NT$4,459). Our new TP implied 2028E P/E of 75x is between company's avg. P/E at 62x and avg. +1 P/E at 91x. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: Landmark discounted P/E
| (NT$ mn) - Milestones - SiPh Rev contribution SiPh GP contribution | 2022 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 13% 15% | 2023 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 35% 25% | 2024 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 42% 41% | 2025 - SiPh in AI data center - 70% 71% | 2026E - SiPh in AI data center - 88% 90% | 2027E - SiPh in AI data center - 93% 94% | 2028E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2029E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2030E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2031E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2032E - CPO - 95% 96% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,381 | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,495 | 9,704 | 15,242 | 22,711 | 33,613 | 47,058 | |
| YoY | 27% | -56% | 14% | 82% | 149% | 77% | 57% | 49% | 48% | 40% | 64,940 38% |
| Gross profit | 759 | 138 | 239 | 941 | 3,114 | 5,438 | 8,602 | 13,059 | 19,327 | 27,058 | 37,405 |
| 31.9% | 13.1% | 19.8% | 42.7% | 57.5% | 57.6% | ||||||
| Gross margin | 424 | 432 | 56.7% | 56.0% | 56.4% | 57.5% | 57.5% | 3,529 | 4,676 | ||
| OPEX | 418 | 351 | 580 | 760 | 1,052 | 1,771 | 2,588 | 36% | 32% | ||
| YoY Opex ratio | 19% 17.8% | -1% 39.6% | -16% 29.0% | 23% 19.6% | 34% 10.6% | 31% | 38% | 68% 7.8% | 46% 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Operating | 335 | -280 | -112 | 508 | 2,534 | 7.8% | 6.9% | 11,287 | 16,739 | 23,529 | 32,730 |
| profit YoY | -18% | -184% | -60% | -555% | 399% | 4,678 85% | 7,550 61% | 50% | 48% | 41% | 39% |
| Operating margin | 14% | -27% | -9% | 23% | 46% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Pre-tax profit | 378 | -264 | -68 | 525 | 2,581 | 7,612 | 11,349 | 16,801 | 23,591 | 32,791 | |
| profit | 4,705 | ||||||||||
| Net | 330 | -212 | -55 | 411 | 2,065 | 3,764 | 6,089 | 9,079 | 13,441 | 18,872 | 26,233 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 3.26 | -2.10 | -0.54 | 4.21 | 20.29 | 36.99 | 59.85 | 89.23 | 132.10 | 185.48 | 257.82 |
| YoY | -2% | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 402% | 82% | 62% | 49% | 48% | 40% | 39% |
| TP implied P/E | 221 | 121 | 75 | 50 | 34 | 24 | 17 |
| 2029E target P/E | 61.5 |
|---|---|
| Target multiple x EPS | 5,485 |
| Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD) | 4,490.0 |
| Implied 2027 P/E | 121 |
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.7 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 10.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Landmark 12M forward P/E
Exhibit 7: Landmark QFII holding trend
Source: Eikon Datastream
Price Target Risks and Methodology - LandMark
Price Target Risks and Methodology - LandMark Optoelectronics Corp.
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology, applying a 61.5x target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, then discount it back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), to derive our 12-month target price of NT$4,490. Our target P/E multiple is based on the same PEG&M ratio as peers in the photonics supply chain. We are Buy-rated on LandMark.
Key risk: Slower-than-expected SiPh penetration; stronger-than-expected competition; Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) offering Epitaxial (EPI) wafers in-house.
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3081.TWO
12m Price Target: NT$4,490.00
Price: NT$2,370.00 Upside: 89.5%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap: NT$230.3bn / $7.1bn Enterprise value: NT$228.2bn / $7.0bn 3m ADTV: NT$9.7bn / $304.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) EPS (NT$) | 12/25 2,202.8 2,202.8 842.9 4.21 4.21 85.8 9.1 0.9 10.8 9/26 6.11 | 12/26E 5,494.9 5,348.2 2,901.4 20.29 18.58 116.8 56.1 0.7 36.4 12/26E 6.46 | 12/27E 9,704.2 9,586.0 5,077.3 36.99 35.87 64.1 47.7 1.2 65.9 3/27E 7.72 | 12/28E 15,242.4 15,099.5 7,970.6 59.85 58.46 39.6 38.4 2.0 111.5 6/27E 11.04 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 30 Oct 2026 close.
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