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報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20260724

更新 2026-07-27

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20260724_original.pdf

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本份 3 張圖依報告章節標題判定:001 為 Share price performance 走勢圖、002 為 PBR trend、003 為 4-quarter forward PER band,皆屬估值/走勢圖,未逐張 Read、未嵌入 lib。

(本份無「真資料圖」需嵌入 lib)

原始內容

Taiwan

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT)

Target price:

TWD449.00 (from TWD505.00)

Share price (24 Jul):

TWD341.50 | Up/downside: +31.5%

Upgrading: profit optimisation round the corner

  • 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance all upbeat
  • On track to optimise profitability thanks to AI and aerospace
  • Upgrading to Buy (1) despite lower 12M TP of TWD449

What's new: Win Semiconductors (WinSemi) reported another set of upbeat quarterly results and guidance, thanks to seasonal ramp of highend smartphones, continued strength from infrastructure aerospace deployments, and strong ramp of new optical communication (OC) business for AI datacentre (DC) builds. We raise our forecasts and upgrade our rating 2 notches to Buy (1), and suggest taking advantage of the share price pullback to accumulate on the attractive risk/reward profile.

What's the impact: Results and guidance all upbeat. WinSemi reported 2Q26 EPS of TWD2.3, beating our/consensus estimates by 104%/50%, thanks to strength at both operating and non-operating levels. Operating profit came in 16% above our estimate due to better opex control more than offsetting lower gross margin (GM) on initial ramp of OC products. Non-op gains of TWD446m were contributed by FX and investment income under the equity method. 3Q26 guidance was above market expectations thanks to: 1) seasonal ramp of new smartphone models across iOS and Android platforms, especially in the high-end segment where WinSemi differentiates, 2) continued resilience of infrastructure demand for aerospace applications, and 3) ramps of new OC products for AI DC.

Diversifying into AI/aerospace. Infrastructure and AI OC were focal discussions at today's conference. For infrastructure, management sees low earth-orbit (LEO) satellite communications rising to become another key contributor besides base stations and stays positive on the LEO ramp. For AI OC, pin-diodes (PD) have entered mass production (MP) since late 2Q26, on track for a strong ramp into 2027, driven by strong demand from a single customer with forecast orders committed beyond 2027. This should be followed by MP of EML and VCSEL, and CW lasers in 2H27 for total AI OC to reach a high single-digit (HSD) % revenue contribution in 2026 and double-digit % in 2027, from HSD in 2Q26 and LSD in 2025. All of these echo our positive stance on WinSemi, based on 3 growth pillars: 1) RF transformation pays off with premiumisation strategy across cellular and WiFi; 2) infrastructure scales up on robust LEO builds; and 3) OC ramps with diversified offerings from peripherals chips (optical drivers, modulators) to PD and laser diodes to capture the fast-growing AI optical connectivity.

What we recommend: Though we lower our 12M TP to TWD449 (previous: TWD505) due to our lower 4-quarter forward PER target of 50x (previous: 67x), justified by our 2025-28E EPS CAGR of 53%, we upgrade our rating 2 notches to Buy (1) on valuation grounds. Key downside risk is commodity price hikes further dampening consumer purchases.

How we differ: Our 2026E EPS is 16% above the consensus forecast mainly attributable to the higher non-operating gains in 2Q26.

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Rick Hsu

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261

rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sharon Kao (886) 2 8758 6255 sharon.kao@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 0.3 0.6 0.4
Net profit change 25.8 0.4 1.2
Core EPS (FD) change 25.8 0.4 1.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20260724_001
12-month range 84.80-617.00
Market cap (USDbn) 4.48
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 397.20
Shares outstanding (m) 424
Major shareholder Cathay Insurance Co Ltd (5.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 21,848 27,193 31,358
Operating profit (m) 3,170 5,405 7,498
Net profit (m) 3,081 4,276 6,027
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 7.267 10.086 14.216
EPS change (%) 81.9 38.8 41.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 16.4 0.9 0.9
PER (x) 47.0 33.9 24.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 1.0 1.5
DPS 2.0 3.5 5.0
PBR (x) 3.6 3.3 3.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 16.6 13.4
ROE (%) 7.5 10.2 13.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

WinSemi: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

Daiwa

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Total revenue 4,590 5,257 5,904 6,097 5,952 6,726 7,235 7,280 16,638 21,848 27,193 31,358
COGS -3,381 -3,772 -4,042 -4,102 -4,059 -4,432 -4,625 -4,503 -12,612 -15,297 -17,618 -19,050
Gross profit 1,209 1,485 1,862 1,995 1,893 2,294 2,611 2,777 4,025 6,551 9,575 12,307
Opex -778 -743 -915 -945 -929 -1,036 -1,093 -1,114 -3,311 -3,381 -4,171 -4,809
Operating profit 431 742 947 1,050 965 1,258 1,518 1,663 715 3,170 5,405 7,498
EBITDA 1,223 1,523 1,762 1,911 1,788 2,113 2,364 2,423 4,709 6,418 8,688 10,381
Non-op gains/losses 101 446 -30 -4 -5 -15 -20 -20 672 513 -60 35
Pretax profit 532 1,188 917 1,046 960 1,243 1,498 1,643 1,387 3,683 5,345 7,533
Income taxes -83 -284 -183 -209 -192 -249 -300 -329 -297 -760 -1,069 -1,507
Net profit 533 977 734 837 768 995 1,199 1,315 1,694 3,081 4,276 6,027
FD O/S (m) 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424
FD EPS (TWD) 1.26 2.30 1.73 1.97 1.81 2.35 2.83 3.10 4.00 7.27 10.09 14.22
Revenue mix
Cellular 35% 33% 31% 29% 26% 25% 25% 24% 32% 32% 25% 23%
Infrastructure 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 29% 29% 27% 33% 32% 29% 28%
WiFi 20% 17% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13% 18% 16% 14% 13%
Optical & others 12% 17% 21% 26% 30% 31% 32% 36% 17% 20% 32% 37%
Margin
Gross 26% 28% 32% 33% 32% 34% 36% 38% 24% 30% 35% 39%
Operating 9% 14% 16% 17% 16% 19% 21% 23% 4% 15% 20% 24%
EBITDA 27% 29% 30% 31% 30% 31% 33% 33% 28% 29% 32% 33%
Net 12% 19% 12% 14% 13% 15% 17% 18% 10% 14% 16% 19%
Growth (QoQ)
Total revenue -4% 15% 12% 3% -2% 13% 8% 1%
Gross profit -21% 23% 25% 7% -5% 21% 14% 6%
Operating profit -35% 72% 28% 11% -8% 30% 21% 10%
Net profit -48% 83% -25% 14% -8% 30% 21% 10%
FD EPS -48% 83% -25% 14% -8% 30% 21% 10%
Growth (YoY)
Total revenue 28% 39% 32% 27% 30% 28% 23% 19% -5% 31% 24% 15%
Gross profit 102% 113% 54% 31% 57% 54% 40% 39% 0% 63% 46% 29%
Operating profit nm nm 146% 58% 124% 70% 60% 58% -6% 344% 70% 39%
Net profit nm nm -31% -19% 44% 2% 63% 57% 121% 82% 39% 41%
FD EPS nm nm -31% -19% 44% 2% 63% 57% 121% 82% 39% 41%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

WinSemi: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 Growth Growth Growth 3Q26E
TWDm Actual Daiwa Variance QoQ YoY Guidance Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 5,257 5,267 0% 15% 39% Revenue to grow by low-teens %QoQ up 11% QoQ
Gross profit 1,485 1,517 -2% 23% 113% GM to be around low-30s 30%
Operating profit 742 637 16% 72% nm
EBITDA 1,523 1,483 3% 25% 62%
Pretax profit 1,188 597 99% 123% nm
Net profit 977 478 104% 83% nm
Adjusted EPS (TWD) 2.30 1.13 104% 83% nm
Margin
Gross 28.2% 28.8% -0.6%
Operating 14.1% 12.1% 2.0%
EBITDA 29.0% 28.2% 0.8%
Net 18.6% 9.1% 9.5%
Operation
Utilization* 65% 67%
Revenue mix
Cellular 30-35% 34%
Infrastructure 30-35% 30%
WiFi 10-15% 19%
Others** 15-20% 18%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * Daiwa: wafer shipment / capacity; Company: wafer output / capacity; ** Others including vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSEL) and other optical sales

WinSemi: PBR trend

報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20260724_002

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

WinSemi: 4-quarter forward PER band

報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20260724_003

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT): 24 July 2026

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Wafer shipment (6" equ) 483,237 316,573 265,500 300,450 292,525 360,255 388,514 423,152
Utilisation rate (%) 94 61 50 55 54 68 82 92
Blended wafer ASP (USD) 1,730 1,709 1,635 1,607 1,623 1,655 1,695 1,715

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cellular & WiFi 16,469 9,168 8,263 9,446 8,226 10,502 10,545 11,083
Infrastructure 5,071 5,276 4,075 4,943 5,529 7,057 7,845 8,822
Other Revenue 4,642 3,891 3,499 3,069 2,884 4,289 8,803 11,453
Total Revenue 26,182 18,334 15,836 17,458 16,639 21,848 27,193 31,358
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (16,412) (13,610) (12,367) (13,416) (12,612) (15,297) (17,618) (19,050)
SG&A (2,015) (1,557) (1,679) (1,590) (1,709) (1,797) (2,131) (2,457)
Other op.expenses (1,332) (1,684) (1,846) (1,691) (1,603) (1,584) (2,040) (2,352)
Operating profit 6,424 1,484 (56) 762 715 3,170 5,405 7,498
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (246) (204) (437) (587) (478) (240) (160) (65)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 222 547 (186) 158 1,150 753 100 100
Pre-tax profit 6,401 1,826 (679) 332 1,387 3,683 5,345 7,533
Tax (1,189) (411) 121 7 (297) (760) (1,069) (1,507)
Min. int./pref. div./others 245 388 478 428 604 157 0 0
Net profit (reported) 5,456 1,802 (80) 768 1,694 3,081 4,276 6,027
Net profit (adjusted) 5,456 1,802 (80) 768 1,694 3,081 4,276 6,027
EPS (reported)(TWD) 12.898 4.252 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 7.267 10.086 14.216
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 12.898 4.252 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 7.267 10.086 14.216
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 12.070 4.050 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 7.267 10.086 14.216
DPS (TWD) 10.025 8.002 2.500 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.500 5.000
EBIT 6,424 1,484 (56) 762 715 3,170 5,405 7,498
EBITDA 10,591 5,787 4,685 5,462 4,709 6,418 8,688 10,381

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 6,401 1,826 (679) 332 1,387 3,683 5,345 7,533
Depreciation and amortisation 4,167 4,304 4,740 4,700 3,994 3,248 3,284 2,883
Tax paid (1,189) (411) 121 7 (297) (760) (1,069) (1,507)
Change in working capital (1,738) 1,743 422 (227) 207 (1,300) (500) (550)
Other operational CF items 175 (1,492) (335) 88 (338) 157 (0) 0
Cash flow from operations 7,815 5,968 4,270 4,900 4,953 5,029 7,059 8,360
Capex (8,081) (7,124) (3,209) (1,222) (1,691) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (6,514) 43 456 166 6,804 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (14,594) (7,081) (2,753) (1,055) 5,112 (2,000) (1,500) (1,000)
Change in debt 18,581 (1,384) (7) (8,113) (7,202) (1,233) (1,110) (999)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (4,240) (3,392) (1,060) 0 (424) (848) (1,484) (2,120)
Other financing CF items 491 (248) (609) (826) (654) 100 100 100
Cash flow from financing 14,831 (5,023) (1,676) (8,939) (8,280) (1,981) (2,493) (3,018)
Forex effect/others (76) 184 106 188 (138) 0 0 0
Change in cash 7,975 (5,952) (54) (4,906) 1,648 1,048 3,066 4,342
Free cash flow (266) (1,156) 1,061 3,678 3,262 3,029 5,559 7,360

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT): 24 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 16,394 10,501 10,469 5,695 7,391 8,438 11,504 15,846
Inventory 6,671 5,420 5,111 4,992 4,979 5,979 6,279 6,679
Accounts receivable 2,718 917 1,149 1,226 1,597 1,947 2,547 2,647
Other current assets 672 376 435 543 590 450 450 450
Total current assets 26,455 17,213 17,163 12,455 14,557 16,814 20,780 25,622
Fixed assets 27,784 31,546 31,312 28,265 19,672 19,041 17,750 16,299
Goodwill & intangibles 5,187 4,944 3,588 3,538 5,409 3,060 3,055 3,050
Other non-current assets 15,468 15,425 17,104 20,000 21,091 21,091 21,091 21,091
Total assets 74,894 69,128 69,168 64,259 60,729 60,006 62,676 66,062
Short-term debt 0 0 21 26 330 330 330 330
Accounts payable 2,163 1,017 1,362 1,094 1,662 1,712 2,112 2,062
Other current liabilities 5,052 5,230 11,340 6,483 3,873 5,033 5,210 5,399
Total current liabilities 7,215 6,247 12,724 7,603 5,865 7,075 7,652 7,791
Long-term debt 29,279 26,540 20,030 16,532 12,328 11,095 9,986 8,987
Other non-current liabilities 1,278 1,152 1,065 986 545 1,000 1,100 1,200
Total liabilities 37,772 33,939 33,819 25,121 18,738 19,170 18,738 17,978
Share capital 4,240 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239
Reserves/R.E./others 30,698 29,089 29,716 33,879 37,306 36,097 39,099 43,145
Shareholders' equity 34,938 33,329 33,955 38,118 41,545 40,336 43,339 47,384
Minority interests 2,184 1,861 1,394 1,020 446 500 600 700
Total equity & liabilities 74,894 69,128 69,168 64,259 60,729 60,006 62,676 66,062
EV 159,845 162,676 155,751 156,659 150,489 148,263 144,187 138,947
Net debt/(cash) 12,886 16,039 9,582 10,864 5,268 2,987 (1,188) (6,528)
BVPS (TWD) 82.600 78.631 80.094 89.914 97.998 95.146 102.229 111.771

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 2.5 (30.0) (13.6) 10.2 (4.7) 31.3 24.5 15.3
EBITDA (YoY) (8.1) (45.4) (19.1) 16.6 (13.8) 36.3 35.4 19.5
Operating profit (YoY) (17.5) (76.9) n.a. n.a. (6.2) 343.6 70.5 38.7
Net profit (YoY) (16.4) (67.0) n.a. n.a. 120.6 81.9 38.8 41.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (21.6) (66.4) n.a. n.a. 120.6 81.9 38.8 41.0
Gross-profit margin 37.3 25.8 21.9 23.2 24.2 30 35.2 39.2
EBITDA margin 40.5 31.6 29.6 31.3 28.3 29.4 31.9 33.1
Operating-profit margin 24.5 8.1 n.a. 4.4 4.3 14.5 19.9 23.9
Net profit margin 20.8 9.8 n.a. 4.4 10.2 14.1 15.7 19.2
ROAE 15.8 5.3 n.a. 2.1 4.3 7.5 10.2 13.3
ROAA 8.4 2.5 n.a. 1.2 2.7 5.1 7.0 9.4
ROCE 11.3 2.3 n.a. 1.4 1.3 5.9 10.1 13.4
ROIC 11.9 2.3 n.a. 1.6 1.5 5.5 10.0 14.2
Net debt to equity 36.9 48.1 28.2 28.5 12.7 7.4 n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 18.6 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 33.1 36.2 23.8 24.8 31.0 29.6 30.2 30.2
Current ratio (x) 3.7 2.8 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.3
Net interest cover (x) 26.2 7.3 n.a. 1.3 1.5 13.2 33.8 115.4
Net dividend payout 64.8 62.2 58.8 0.0 25.0 27.5 34.7 35.2
Free cash flow yield n.a. n.a. 0.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 3.8 5.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1999, Win Semiconductors Corp (WinSemi) is the world's largest compound semiconductor foundry, focusing on gallium-arsenide (GaAs) foundry services for customers in both wireless and wireline communication markets, as well as infrastructure applications. It has a diverse technology portfolio of processes that supports microwave frequency requirements from 50MHz to 100GHz, with applications including smartphones, tablet PCs, cellular base-stations, very small aperture terminals (VSAT) and fibre optics. It has started penetrating into vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) foundries since 2017 for consumer laser applications such as 3D laser sensors and cameras.

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT): 24 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 WinSemi's board of directors (BoD) has 10 members, including 3 independent directors, representing 30% of total directors. Among the BoD, three of its non-independent directors are also executive management.
G Capital management 2 Since 2017, its dividend payout ratio has remained above 58%, except for 2024 when no dividend was paid. Despite being the largest compound semiconductor foundry in the world, WinSemi is continually expanding its capacity for future growth. Thus, we see the balance between investment and dividend as appropriate.
Related party & transaction 1 It did not have any meaningful related-party transactions in 2023.
S Supply chain management 2 WinSemi We actively cooperate with local suppliers and improve their development capabilities, reduce carbon emissions and create local employment opportunities. WinSemi also conducts on- site audits of suppliers and annual assessment of suppliers on environmental protection and safety & health management systems. In 2023, 100% of WinSemi's new suppliers signed the "WIN Supplier Code of Conduct".'"
E Water & wastewater management 1 Effluent that flows out of WinSemi's facilities will first undergo pre-treatment in-house and then treatment by the wastewater treatment plant at Hwaya Technology Park before discharge. The plant has an acid and alkali wastewater recycling system and chemical mechanical polishing wastewater recycling system for wastewater management.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 WinSemi has established a hazardous substance-free management procedure and also collaborates with its suppliers to produce products that are hazardous substance-free for customers and consumers. WinSemi specifies in purchase contracts and order forms with its suppliers that the provided materials may not contain hazardous substances as defined by WinSemi. For waste management, it aims to increase the recycling rate of waste solvents and reduce the use of raw materials in production.
E GHG emissions 1 For reduction of energy consumption, it prioritises high-efficiency and low energy consumption models when replacing equipment and has also established annual energy conservation management objectives. WinSemi targets to reduce electricity consumption (kWh/6"e wafer) by 12% from 2018 to 458.58 and PFCs emission (ton CO2e/6"e wafer) by 50% from 2018 to 0.114 in 2030.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 4 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT): 24 July 2026

Daiwa