PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_欣興3037_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf
原始內容
Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT)
Share price (27 Oct): TWD1,060.00
12-mth rating: Buy (1)
3Q26 results first-take: results beat on non-ops
Sheng Cheng
(886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Thomas Kim
(886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: Our first take on Unimicron's 3Q26 results (released on 27 October) is that earnings were better than expected, driven by stronger-than-expected non-operating gains. We attribute the upside primarily to a smaller-than-feared valuation loss on UMC in 3Q26. In addition, the company mentioned that other investments, including Unimicron shares held through investment vehicles, contributed c.TWD3bn of mark-to-market gains in 3Q26. As for the core business, 3Q26 revenue reached TWD52.7bn (up 23% QoQ, up 55% YoY), with gross margin expanding 4.0ppt QoQ to 28.8% and operating margin rising 4.5ppt QoQ to 20.0%, supported by improving profitability in ABF substrates and HDI. We believe the profitability performance was broadly in line with the latest buy-side expectations. Looking ahead, while the company does not provide numerical guidance, revenue and gross margin should continue to improve in 4Q26. Given Unimicron's leading position across most CSP AI ASIC projects, Nvidia GPUs, and EMIB-T, we believe the company should continue to benefit from a favourable pricing environment amid the current supply-demand dynamics and ongoing specification upgrades, including larger substrate body sizes and technology migration. We have a Buy (1) rating on Unimicron with a 12M TP of TWD1,500, based on a target PER of 35x applied to our 1-year-forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected demand.
Unimicron's 3Q26 results highlights
| (TWDm) | Actual | QoQ% | YoY% | Daiwa | Diff % | Consensus | Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 52,650 | 23% | 55% | 51,251 | 3% | 50,366 | 5% |
| Gross profit | 15,189 | 43% | 234% | 14,513 | 5% | 14,044 | 8% |
| Gross margin (%) | 28.8% | 28.3% | 27.9% | ||||
| Operating profit | 10,528 | 58% | 587% | 9,901 | 6% | 9,878 | 7% |
| Operating margin (%) | 20.0% | 19.3% | 19.6% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 13,163 | -15% | 347% | 5,473 | 141% | 8,577 | 53% |
| Net profit | 10,052 | -23% | 358% | 4,184 | 140% | 6,738 | 49% |
| EPS (TWD) | 6.15 | -23% | 358% | 2.72 | 140% | 4.12 | 49% |
Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg
What's the impact:
Below is our first take on Unimicron's 3Q26 results (released on 27 October). We will review our model in due course.
- 3Q26 results beat expectations. Unimicron's 3Q26 earnings came in at TWD10.1bn (EPS: TWD6.15), beating our estimate of TWD4.2bn and Bloomberg consensus of TWD6.7bn by 140% and 49%, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected nonoperating gains. In our previous note, Unimicron recognised c.TWD8bn of mark-tomarket gains on UMC (2303 TT, TWD122.5, Neutral [3], covered by Rick Hsu) in 2Q26. We had originally expected Unimicron to recognise c.TWD5bn of valuation losses in 3Q26, given UMC's share-price performance in July. However, the actual valuation loss of c.TWD0.7bn was substantially better than feared. In addition, the company attributed part of the strength to c.TWD3bn of other mark-to-market gains, including gains related to Unimicron shares held through its investment vehicles. This is broadly consistent with the reported 3Q26 total non-operating contribution of c.TWD2.6bn after accounting for the UMC valuation loss and other non-operating items.
27 October 2026
Information Technology: Taiwan
- Looking at the core business, 3Q26 revenue reached TWD52.7bn (up 23% QoQ, up 55% YoY), with gross margin expanding 4.0ppt QoQ to 28.8% and operating margin rising 4.5ppt QoQ to 20.0%, supported by improving profitability in ABF substrates and HDI. With stronger operating leverage, operating profit surged 58% QoQ to TWD10.53bn. We believe the gross-margin and operating-margin performance was broadly in line with recent buy-side expectations for modestly improving profitability in ABF substrates and HDI, given that ABF margin was already high at c.40% in 2Q26, alongside a higher revenue contribution from a large end customer. We estimate ABF substrate margin at c.42-44% in 3Q26 (vs. c.40% in 2Q26).
- Business outlook. While the company does not provide numerical guidance, revenue and gross margin should continue to improve in 4Q26 amid the current substrate supply shortage. In addition, the company is aggressively expanding capacity at its Guangfu and Yangmei plants over 2027-29, with roughly c.30% annual ABF capacity expansion, which should become a key growth driver for Unimicron. Given Unimicron's leading position across most CSP AI ASIC projects, Nvidia GPUs, and EMIB-T, we believe the company should continue to benefit from a favourable pricing environment amid the current supply-demand dynamics and ongoing specification upgrades, including larger substrate body sizes and technology migration.
What we recommend:
We have a Buy (1) rating on Unimicron with a 12M TP of TWD1,500, based on a target PER of 35x applied to our 1-year-forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: less-thanexpected demand.
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.