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報告_Daiwa_旭隼6409_20260810

更新 2026-08-10

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_旭隼6409_20260810_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_001.png 27KB 真資料圖 旭隼股價走勢折線圖(藍線,左軸 TWD)與相對 TWSE 指數表現(金色虛線,右軸 %),時間軸 Aug-25 至 May-26
260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_002.png 19KB 真資料圖 資料表:12個月股價區間 663.00–1,290.00、市值 2.82(USDbn)、3個月日均成交額 36.14(USDm)、流通股數 88(m)、主要股東 Juor-Ming Hsieh(12.7%)
260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_003.png 51KB 真資料圖 旭隼一年期預估本益比區間圖(22x/30x/38x/46x 四條參考線),時間軸 Aug-19 至 Aug-26
260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_004.png 36KB 真資料圖 旭隼營收結構堆疊長條圖(Online UPS/Offline UPS/Inverters/Others/HVDC),2023–2028E;HVDC 占比自 2023–2025 年 0% 預估成長至 2026E 10%、2027E 10%、2028E 14%

原始內容

Taiwan

Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,180.00 (from TWD1,180.00)

Share price (10 Aug): TWD1,040.00 | Up/downside: +13.5%

2Q26 results: HVDC development largely on track

  • A mixed bag in core business but stabilised already
  • HVDC development on track and will contribute in 2028
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; reiterating 12M TP of TWD1,180

What's new: We provide updates after 2Q26 results on 10 August.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results a mixed bag. Voltronic's 2Q26 earnings came in at TWD712m (EPS: TWD8.12), 1% higher than our estimate (TWD706m). Revenue reached TWD5.54bn (+32% QoQ; -3% YoY), 5% higher than our expectation as both on-line and off-line UPS demand recovered (on-line: grew +29/19% QoQ/YoY; off-line: grew 24% /28% QoQ/YoY) after demand was impacted in 1Q26 by the Middle East war and Voltronic's price hikes. That said, apart from metal cost hike, Voltronic also suffered from the rising cost of power semi (c.20% of raw material) and PCB (4% of raw material) from 2Q26. Along with the existing price competition from inverter business (revenue was down 44% YoY in 2Q26), gross margin declined 0.8pp. That said, operating margin remained 18.1% given the lower operating expense; we believe the key reason was the employee stock option plan having lower cost than we expected. Lastly, higher FX losses of TWD210m, mainly due to CNY appreciation vs. TWD (up 0.9% in 2Q26) dragged net profit despite being offset by a lower tax rate (11.6%) due to Chinese government subsidies.

Business update. In general, we sense that UPS demand has recovered from 2Q26. However, despite the inverter segment being in the peak season, (+60% QoQ in 2Q26), Voltronic still delivered c.44% YoY decline despite a low base. We attribute the weakness to the Middle East war and weaker-than-expected demand from South Africa. On top of this, inverter margins continuously declined in 2Q26 given fierce competition. We believe this might be the key drag to Voltronic now. In terms of gross margin trend, we expect Voltronic has already raised its pricing a second time in June to pass through the power semi and PCB cost to end customers. As such, we forecast gross margin will recover QoQ in 3Q26. However, management also indicates that they don't rule out another round of price hikes due to increasing raw material cost. Lastly and most importantly, we learned that Voltronic has just gotten certification from a key HVDC client and this client has recently started a new HVDC project within Voltronic. As such, we expect the progress to be largely on track with our expectation to have more meaningful revenue contribution from 2028.

What we recommend: We slightly trim 2027-28E EPS by 1-3% on weaker inverter segment performance. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and maintain our 12M TP of TWD1,180, with an unchanged PER of 30x applied to our 1year forward EPS (lower than the mid-point of its past-3-year range of 3046x). Key downside risk: worse-than-expected global economic growth.

How we differ: We believe we are among the few QFII brokers to continuously provide updates on Voltronic.

10 August 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (0.3) (0.6) (1.0)
Net profit change (0.5) (3.1) (1.4)
Core EPS (FD) change (0.5) (3.1) (1.4)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_001
260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_002
12-month range 663.00-1,290.00
Market cap (USDbn) 2.82
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 36.14
Shares outstanding (m) 88
Major shareholder Juor-Ming Hsieh (12.7%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 19,913 20,850 25,634
Operating profit (m) 3,683 4,194 5,505
Net profit (m) 2,722 3,543 4,618
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 31.035 40.399 52.655
EPS change (%) (22.7) 30.2 30.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (23.2) (21.4) (14.3)
PER (x) 33.5 25.7 19.8
Dividend yield (%) 3.5 3.0 3.5
DPS 36.0 31.0 36.0
PBR (x) 10.1 9.3 8.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.3 17.8 13.7
ROE (%) 29.3 37.6 43.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Voltronic: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 19,966 19,913 20,430 20,974 20,850 22,606 25,894 25,634 25,647
Diff (%) -0.3% -2.5% -0.6% -7.8% -1.0% 0.0%
Gross Margin (%) 26.9% 26.3% 27.5% 29.1% 28.1% 28.4% 29.8% 29.2% 28.6%
Operating profit 3,502 3,683 3,824 4,333 4,194 4,455 5,585 5,505 5,251
Op Margin (%) 17.5% 18.5% 18.7% 20.7% 20.1% 19.7% 21.6% 21.5% 20.5%
Net profit 2,736 2,722 3,544 3,657 3,543 4,509 4,684 4,618 5,389
EPS (TWD) 31.20 31.03 40.41 41.70 40.40 51.41 53.41 52.65 61.44
Diff (%) -0.5% -23.2% -3.1% -21.4% -1.4% -14.3%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Voltronic: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2027E 2026E 2026E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 4,205 5,554 5,254 4,899 4,531 5,499 5,377 5,443 20,521 19,913 20,850 25,634
COGS -3,107 -4,150 -3,872 -3,555 -3,273 -3,959 -3,862 -3,895 -14,561 -14,685 -14,989 -18,137
Gross profit 1,097 1,404 1,382 1,345 1,258 1,540 1,515 1,548 5,960 5,228 5,861 7,497
Operating expenses -336 -398 -405 -407 -367 -418 -430 -452 -1,632 -1,545 -1,667 -1,992
Operating profit 761 1,007 977 938 891 1,122 1,084 1,096 4,329 3,683 4,194 5,505
Non-operating profit -264 -201 31 32 32 32 32 32 -12 -402 127 127
Pre-tax profit 498 805 1,008 970 923 1,154 1,116 1,128 4,317 3,281 4,321 5,632
Income taxes -106 -93 -215 -146 -166 -208 -201 -203 -796 -560 -778 -1,014
Net profit 392 712 793 825 757 946 915 925 3,521 2,722 3,543 4,618
Net EPS (TWD) 4.46 8.12 9.05 9.40 8.63 10.79 10.43 10.55 40.15 31.03 40.40 52.65
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 26.1% 25.3% 26.3% 27.4% 27.8% 28.0% 28.2% 28.4% 29.0% 26.3% 28.1% 29.2%
Operating margin 18.1% 18.1% 18.6% 19.1% 19.7% 20.4% 20.2% 20.1% 21.1% 18.5% 20.1% 21.5%
Pre-tax margin 11.8% 14.5% 19.2% 19.8% 20.4% 21.0% 20.8% 20.7% 21.0% 16.5% 20.7% 22.0%
Net margin 9.3% 12.8% 15.1% 16.8% 16.7% 17.2% 17.0% 17.0% 17.2% 13.7% 17.0% 18.0%
YoY (%)
Net revenue -16% -3% 1% 6% 8% -1% 2% 11% -10% -3% 5% 23%
Gross profit -26% -14% -8% 0% 15% 10% 10% 15% -15% -12% 12% 28%
Operating profit -29% -13% -15% -3% 17% 11% 11% 17% -15% -15% 14% 31%
Pre-tax profit -53% -55% 22% 46% 85% 43% 11% 16% -15% -24% 32% 30%
Net profit -54% -52% 24% 55% 93% 33% 15% 12% -16% -23% 30% 30%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue -9% 32% -5% -7% -8% 21% -2% 1%
Gross profit -19% 28% -2% -3% -6% 22% -2% 2%
Operating profit -21% 32% -3% -4% -5% 26% -3% 1%
Pre-tax profit -25% 62% 25% -4% -5% 25% -3% 1%
Net profit -27% 82% 11% 4% -8% 25% -3% 1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Voltronic: 1-year forward PER bands

260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT): 10 August 2026

Voltronic: revenue breakdown by product

260810_daiwa_Voltronic Power Tech_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
UPS shipment (m units) 7 8.8 7.5 8.8 7.7 8.2 0 0
On-line UPS ASP (USD) 245.5 251 251 251 251 251 0 0
Off-line UPS ASP (USD) 33.4 26 26 26 26 26 0 0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Online UPS 6,002 7,124 6,559 7,593 7,585 8,143 8,697 9,124
Offline UPS 5,751 6,090 5,264 6,189 5,291 5,657 5,536 5,588
Other Revenue 5,204 9,511 7,128 9,031 7,645 6,113 6,617 10,922
Total Revenue 16,957 22,725 18,951 22,813 20,521 19,913 20,850 25,634
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (12,646) (15,588) (12,982) (15,790) (14,561) (14,685) (14,989) (18,137)
SG&A (785) (943) (897) (946) (787) (640) (724) (900)
Other op.expenses (601) (906) (933) (962) (845) (905) (943) (1,092)
Operating profit 2,925 5,288 4,138 5,115 4,329 3,683 4,194 5,505
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 31 (7) 83 164 139 127 127 127
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (65) 122 162 (189) (151) (529) 0 0
Pre-tax profit 2,890 5,403 4,382 5,090 4,317 3,281 4,321 5,632
Tax (531) (970) (760) (886) (796) (560) (778) (1,014)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 2,359 4,433 3,623 4,204 3,521 2,722 3,543 4,618
Net profit (adjusted) 2,359 4,433 3,623 4,204 3,521 2,722 3,543 4,618
EPS (reported)(TWD) 26.989 50.510 41.292 47.929 40.145 31.035 40.399 52.655
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 26.989 50.510 41.292 47.929 40.145 31.035 40.399 52.655
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 26.989 50.510 41.292 47.929 40.145 31.035 40.399 52.655
DPS (TWD) 23.500 24.500 24.500 24.500 43.000 36.000 31.000 36.000
EBIT 2,925 5,288 4,138 5,115 4,329 3,683 4,194 5,505
EBITDA 3,224 5,615 4,500 5,464 4,641 4,202 4,737 6,073

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 2,890 5,403 4,382 5,090 4,317 3,281 4,321 5,632
Depreciation and amortisation 299 327 362 349 313 519 543 569
Tax paid (531) (970) (760) (886) (796) (560) (778) (1,014)
Change in working capital (715) 5 173 (413) 786 (285) (104) (243)
Other operational CF items 355 854 (75) 264 (3) 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 2,299 5,619 4,083 4,404 4,617 2,956 3,982 4,944
Capex (520) (1,974) (182) (87) (60) (259) (271) (333)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 (316) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (12) (0) (50) (17) (19) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (532) (1,975) (232) (104) (395) (259) (271) (333)
Change in debt 622 (1,639) (98) 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,055) (2,054) (3,818) (3,290) (3,772) (3,157) (2,719) (3,157)
Other financing CF items (91) (98) (93) (101) (74) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (1,524) (3,791) (4,009) (3,391) (3,846) (3,157) (2,719) (3,157)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 242 (147) (157) 909 376 (461) 992 1,453
Free cash flow 1,778 3,644 3,902 4,317 4,556 2,697 3,711 4,611

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 5,155 5,353 5,045 6,556 6,738 6,278 7,270 8,724
Inventory 1,787 2,019 1,412 2,093 1,796 1,961 2,002 2,422
Accounts receivable 2,867 3,173 3,007 3,518 3,439 3,375 3,534 4,345
Other current assets 233 271 194 256 302 302 302 302
Total current assets 10,042 10,816 9,657 12,423 12,276 11,916 13,108 15,793
Fixed assets 2,730 4,474 4,420 4,390 4,172 3,912 3,640 3,404
Goodwill & intangibles 29 25 19 12 9 9 9 9
Other non-current assets 583 770 660 496 628 526 526 526
Total assets 13,384 16,085 14,756 17,321 17,084 16,363 17,283 19,732
Short-term debt 2,380 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 3,615 4,173 3,687 4,350 4,796 4,612 4,707 5,696
Other current liabilities 1,500 2,454 1,798 2,276 2,086 2,086 2,086 2,086
Total current liabilities 7,495 6,627 5,485 6,626 6,881 6,698 6,793 7,782
Long-term debt 0 832 734 636 538 538 538 538
Other non-current liabilities 181 283 180 130 111 111 111 111
Total liabilities 7,676 7,742 6,398 7,392 7,531 7,347 7,443 8,431
Share capital 874 878 877 877 877 877 877 877
Reserves/R.E./others 4,833 7,466 7,480 9,052 8,676 8,139 8,963 10,424
Shareholders' equity 5,708 8,343 8,358 9,929 9,553 9,016 9,840 11,301
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 13,384 16,085 14,756 17,321 17,084 16,363 17,283 19,732
EV 88,437 86,691 86,901 85,291 85,012 85,472 84,480 83,026
Net debt/(cash) (2,775) (4,521) (4,311) (5,920) (6,200) (5,740) (6,732) (8,185)
BVPS (TWD) 65.291 95.066 95.267 113.191 108.924 102.803 112.202 128.856

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 24.2 34.0 (16.6) 20.4 (10.0) (3.0) 4.7 22.9
EBITDA (YoY) 8.6 74.2 (19.9) 21.4 (15.1) (9.5) 12.7 28.2
Operating profit (YoY) 7.1 80.8 (21.8) 23.6 (15.4) (14.9) 13.9 31.3
Net profit (YoY) 7.4 87.9 (18.3) 16.1 (16.3) (22.7) 30.2 30.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 7.4 87.2 (18.3) 16.1 (16.2) (22.7) 30.2 30.3
Gross-profit margin 25.4 31.4 31.5 30.8 29.0 26.3 28.1 29.2
EBITDA margin 19.0 24.7 23.7 23.9 22.6 21.1 22.7 23.7
Operating-profit margin 17.2 23.3 21.8 22.4 21.1 18.5 20.1 21.5
Net profit margin 13.9 19.5 19.1 18.4 17.2 13.7 17.0 18.0
ROAE 42.7 63.1 43.4 46.0 36.1 29.3 37.6 43.7
ROAA 18.6 30.1 23.5 26.2 20.5 16.3 21.1 25.0
ROCE 38.5 61.3 45.3 52.0 41.9 37.5 42.1 49.6
ROIC 92.7 n.a 86.9 n.a 95.9 92.2 n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 18.4 18.0 17.3 17.4 18.4 17.1 18.0 18.0
Accounts receivable (days) 57.2 48.5 59.5 52.2 61.9 62.5 60.5 56.1
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
Net interest cover (x) n.a. 800.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 93.5 90.8 48.5 59.3 89.7 89.7 99.9 89.1
Free cash flow yield 1.9 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 3.0 4.1 5.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in May 2008 and listed in March 2014, Voltronic Power Technology (Voltronic) focuses on the ODM business for uninterruptible power supply (UPS) related products, including off-line UPS for PC applications and on-line UPS for industrial applications. Its management team is mostly from Phoenixtec, formerly the largest UPS maker in Taiwan but was acquired by Eaton, a US-based UPS vendor in 2007.

Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Voltronic's board consists of 8 directors, including 4 independent directors. A total of five meetings were held in 2024. The average attendance rate was 81%. As the Chairman of the Board is also the CEO, Voltronic voluntarily appoints two more independent directors than required by law, and the Audit Committee is comprised entirely of independent directors. We see this measure as positive for the quality of the board. The backgrounds of independent directors are diversified, and they specialise in the areas of accounting and management. We see it as another positive factor for the board's quality.
G Capital management 1 Voltronic had an 90% dividend payout ratio in 2024. In fact, the payout ratios from 2017 to 2021 were above 90%; we see this as a favourable dividend policy to investors. We believe the high dividend payout is likely due to its distinctive business model. Being an ODM for the UPS industry, it faces less competition and the company can maintain its high competitiveness/profit margins without much capital investment.
Related party & transaction 1 In 2024, revenue from related parties was at 5.0% of total revenue, while purchases from related parties were at 0.2% of cost of sales. We see limited risk from related-party transactions.
E Materials sourcing & efficiency 2 Voltronic offers professional ODM design and manufacturing of power converters (also known as inverters), automatic voltage regulators (AVRs), and solar inverters. Raw materials for producing inverters include batteries, transformers, plastic materials, steel cases, etc, which account for 50% of the cost of total materials. Apart from the raw materials, Voltronic also purchases green packaging materials, including corrugated paper, cardboard, cartons, etc. According to Voltronic's CSR report, the proportion of spending on local suppliers is above 80%, while its Taiwan region's procurement is mainly for services procurement and the China region's procurement is mainly for raw materials. Voltronic achieves 100% raw materials that comply with the requirements of EU Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) directive and the requirements of EU Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) Act on SVHC-substances. To avoid the risk of raw material purchasing, Voltronic has established the Zhongshan plant to produce some raw materials by itself and selects suppliers that can cooperate with the emergency supply of some raw materials. As for the risk of rising material costs, the company targets to to increase selling prices.
E Product design & lifecycle management 2 In accordance with the requirements of the EU WEEE directive, Voltronic participates in product recycling and scrap assessment at the design stage. After the end of life of Voltronic's products, the reuse rate is over 80% and the recycling rate is over 70%. Internally, Voltronic has "Design Management Guidelines" when considering a new product design and development.
E Product quality & safety 2 For discussion on Voltronic's product quality and safety, we have less relevant information than other listed companies. Voltronic mentioned it has internal standards of "Quality & Environment Manual" and has passed the Quality Management System ISO 9001 to control product quality. According to its 2019 CSR report, Voltronic has not seen any non-compliance incident up to now that has impacted health and safety during their lifecycles.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 8 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa