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報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103

更新 2026-11-04

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103_001.png 25KB 真資料圖 Share price performance:2025/11–2026/11 建準股價(藍線,左軸 TWD 120–190)與相對大盤指數(金線,右軸 %);股價 2025 末約 190 高點,2026 年 8 月約 120 低點,11 月回落至約 138
報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103_002.png 52KB 真資料圖 Sunon: product mix:2019–2028E 營收組合堆疊長條(IT&OE、Telecom & Server、Industrial Medical Equipment、Home Application、Distribution、Automobile、LED lighting);Telecom & Server 由 2019 年 26% 升至 2025 年 58%、2026E 61%、2027E 65%、2028E 69%;IT&OE 由 37% 降至 2028E 10%
報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103_003.png 31KB 真資料圖 Sunon: 1-year forward PER:2020/11–2026/11 股價(深藍線)與 5x/10x/15x/20x/25x 本益比帶;股價近期落在約 10x 至 15x 之間

原始內容

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT)

Target price: TWD265.00 (from TWD236.00)

Shareprice(3Nov):TWD138.00 | Up/downside:+92.0%

3Q26 results preview: ongoing gross margin expansion

  • Rising liquid cooling and EC fans revenue mix in 2027E vs. 2026
  • Likely upward revision in EPS forecasts in the near term
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12M TP to TWD265

What's new: We provide a 3Q26 results preview on Sunon, which plans to release its 3Q26 results on 6 November. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call as we expect the 4Q26 and 2027 outlook for its telecom, servers, industrial and auto segments to remain intact with both gross and operating margin set to expand. We now forecast a net profit CAGR of 28.2% over 2026-28E from 21.2% previously (see our flash, 28 August).

What's the impact: 3Q26 results preview. Sunon's 3Q26 revenue of TWD6,143m (+13.4% QoQ and +24.5% YoY), a record-high level, accounted for 97.2% and 102.2%, respectively, of our previous (TWD6,319m, +16.6% QoQ and +28.1% YoY) and the Bloomberg consensus estimates for 3Q26 revenue. We forecast its 3Q26 gross margin to be 32.8% (vs. 31.3% in 2Q26 and 31.3% in 3Q25), slightly higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 31.9%. We forecast an operating profit of TWD1,115m (+33.3% QoQ and +45.0% YoY), 3.0% higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of TWD1,082m and an operating margin of 18.1% (vs. 15.4% in 2Q26 and 15.6% in 3Q25). Overall, we forecast a net profit of TWD901m (+30.5% QoQ, +29.7% YoY), 1.9% higher than the consensus estimate of TWD884m. We forecast 4Q26 revenue to grow 7.5% QoQ, and 1Q27 revenue to grow 1.4% QoQ considering its ASIC and GPU projects.

Rising liquid cooling revenue and EC fan exposure in 2027E underpin its gross margin expansion. We expect Sunon's cold plate products (ie, enterprise and GPU clients), pump and CDU to be the key revenue drivers with certification also underway for CSP clients. We expect revenue from EC fans to reach 10% in 2027E for the industrial segment. We revise up our 2026-28E EPS by 1-13%, mainly on higher revenue, gross margin and operating margin assumptions.

What we recommend: We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD265 (from TWD236), still based on a target PER of 18x vs. its past5-year PER range of 6-25x, on the 2027E EPS, given solid earnings visibility from intact demand in the server, telecom, industrial and auto segments. We believe its dividend yield of 5.6-9.2% over 2026-28E will offer downside support for its share price. Downside risks: worse-thanexpected gross-margin expansion and AI server development progress.

How we differ: We are one of only two overseas brokers covering the stock. Our 2026-28E EPS are 4-12% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more aggressive revenue, gross margin and operating margin estimates.

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Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254 helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change - - 3.3
Net profit change 1.0 5.3 12.9
Core EPS (FD) change 1.0 5.4 12.9

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 120.50-188.48
Market cap (USDbn) 1.16
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 16.96
Shares outstanding (m) 273
Major shareholder Hung family (33.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 23,186 27,364 32,295
Operating profit (m) 3,872 5,117 6,427
Net profit (m) 3,166 4,187 5,200
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 11.153 14.628 18.170
EPS change (%) 40.7 31.2 24.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 4.0 9.9 12.4
PER (x) 12.4 9.4 7.6
Dividend yield (%) 5.6 7.4 9.2
DPS 7.7 10.2 12.7
PBR (x) 3.7 3.1 2.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 6.0 4.7
ROE (%) 32.7 36.5 38.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 23,186 23,186 0.0% 27,364 27,364 0.0% 32,295 31,278 3.3%
Gross profit 7,489 7,420 0.9% 9,304 9,030 3.0% 11,303 10,384 8.8%
Gross margin 32.3% 32.0% 0.3pp 34.0% 33.0% 1pp 35.0% 33.2% 1.8pp
Operating profit 3,872 3,803 1.8% 5,117 4,843 5.6% 6,427 5,661 13.5%
Operating margin 16.7% 16.4% 0.3pp 18.7% 17.7% 1pp 19.9% 18.1% 1.8pp
Net profit 3,166 3,136 1.0% 4,187 3,975 5.3% 5,200 4,608 12.9%
Net margin 13.7% 13.5% 0.1pp 15.3% 14.5% 0.8pp 16.1% 14.7% 1.4pp
Fully diluted EPS (TWD) 11.15 11.04 1.0% 14.63 13.88 5.4% 18.17 16.09 12.9%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: 3Q26 results preview

(TWDm) Daiwa's 3Q26 forecast Our previous forecast Differ Bloomberg consensus Differ
Revenue 6,143 6,319 -2.8% 6,357 -3.4%
Gross profit 2,015 2,041 -1.3% 2,028 -0.6%
Operating profit 1,115 1,141 -2.3% 1,082 3.0%
Profit before tax 1,162 1,218 -4.6% 1,133 2.6%
Net profit 901 950 -5.2% 884 1.9%
EPS 3.15 3.33 -5.5% 3.10 1.7%
Margin
Gross margin 32.8% 32.3% 0.5pp 31.9% 0.9pp
Operating margin 18.1% 18.1% 0.1pp 17.0% 1.1pp
Pre-tax margin 18.9% 19.3% -0.4pp 17.8% 1.1pp
Net margin 14.7% 15.0% -0.4pp 13.9% 0.8pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: quarterly and annual P&L

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q26 2026E - 2Q26 2026E - 3Q26E 2026E - 4Q26E 2027E - 1Q27E 2027E - 2Q27E 2027E - 3Q27E 2027E - 4Q27E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 5,019 5,419 6,143 6,606 6,700 6,800 6,900 6,964 23,186 27,364 32,295
Gross profit 1,589 1,693 2,015 2,192 2,191 2,230 2,277 2,606 7,489 9,304 11,303
Operating profit 788 836 1115 1133 1191 1190 1257 1479 3,872 5,117 6,427
Pre-tax profit 805 912 1162 1210 1263 1263 1329 1551 4,089 5,407 6,716
Net profit 649 690 901 927 1023 960 1037 1167 3,166 4,187 5,200
Basic EPS (TWD) 2.36 2.41 3.15 3.24 3.58 3.36 3.63 4.08 11.16 14.64 18.18
Margin
Gross margin 31.7% 31.3% 32.8% 33.2% 32.7% 32.8% 33.0% 37.4% 32.3% 34.0% 35.0%
Operating margin 15.7% 15.4% 18.1% 17.2% 17.8% 17.5% 18.2% 21.2% 16.7% 18.7% 19.9%
Pre-tax margin 16.0% 16.8% 18.9% 18.3% 18.9% 18.6% 19.3% 22.3% 17.6% 19.8% 20.8%
Net margin 12.9% 12.7% 14.7% 14.0% 15.3% 14.1% 15.0% 16.8% 13.7% 15.3% 16.1%
YoY
Revenue 20.6% 16.2% 24.5% 34.3% 33.5% 25.5% 12.3% 5.4% 24.1% 18.0% 18.0%
Gross profit 30.5% 18.9% 30.3% 35.8% 37.9% 31.7% 13.0% 18.9% 29.1% 24.2% 21.5%
Operating profit 52.9% 16.9% 45.0% 39.9% 51.1% 42.4% 12.8% 30.5% 37.8% 32.2% 25.6%
Pre-tax profit 38.7% 76.5% 29.4% 51.0% 57.0% 38.4% 14.4% 28.2% 46.2% 32.2% 24.2%
Net profit 37.5% 84.5% 29.7% 48.3% 57.7% 39.1% 15.2% 25.9% 46.2% 32.2% 24.2%
QoQ
Revenue 2.1% 8.0% 13.4% 7.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9%
Gross profit -1.5% 6.5% 19.0% 8.8% 0.0% 1.8% 2.1% 14.4%
Operating profit -2.7% 6.1% 33.3% 1.6% 5.1% 0.0% 5.6% 17.6%
Pre-tax profit 0.4% 13.4% 27.3% 4.2% 4.4% 0.0% 5.3% 16.7%
Net profit 3.8% 6.3% 30.5% 2.9% 10.4% -6.2% 8.0% 12.5%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: product mix

Sunon: 1-year forward PER

報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20261103_002

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Automotive revenue YoY growth (%) 6.1 59.5 9.1 31.1 2.8 20.0 10.0 5.0
IT&OE revenue YoY growth (%) 2.3 (26.8) (16.8) (10.7) 13.8 15.0 0.0 0.0
Telecom & server revenue YoY growth (%) 6.5 16.2 21.4 43.5 40.4 30.0 25.0 25.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Telecom & Server revenue 3,838 4,458 5,411 7,765 10,901 14,172 17,714 22,143
Industrial & Medical equipment & Automobile revenue 2,645 3,178 2,686 2,910 3,400 4,167 4,802 5,304
Other Revenue 7,079 6,427 4,817 3,948 4,377 4,848 4,848 4,848
Total Revenue 13,562 14,063 12,915 14,624 18,678 23,186 27,364 32,295
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (11,026) (10,892) (9,313) (10,467) (12,876) (15,697) (18,060) (20,992)
SG&A (1,258) (1,268) (1,272) (1,587) (1,910) (2,272) (2,627) (3,068)
Other op.expenses (814) (781) (799) (893) (1,082) (1,345) (1,560) (1,809)
Operating profit 464 1,122 1,530 1,677 2,809 3,872 5,117 6,427
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (14) (30) 49 95 71 97 90 90
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 136 334 172 210 (83) 120 200 200
Pre-tax profit 585 1,426 1,752 1,982 2,797 4,089 5,407 6,716
Tax (156) (337) (418) (490) (631) (923) (1,220) (1,516)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 429 1,089 1,334 1,492 2,165 3,166 4,187 5,200
Net profit (adjusted) 429 1,089 1,334 1,492 2,165 3,166 4,187 5,200
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.711 4.340 5.163 5.457 7.937 11.163 14.637 18.181
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.711 4.340 5.163 5.457 7.937 11.163 14.637 18.181
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.711 4.327 5.074 5.448 7.924 11.153 14.628 18.170
DPS (TWD) 1.200 2.600 3.500 3.687 5.442 7.735 10.228 12.705
EBIT 464 1,122 1,530 1,677 2,809 3,872 5,117 6,427
EBITDA 981 1,635 2,065 2,171 3,359 4,213 5,534 6,905

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 585 1,426 1,752 1,982 2,797 4,089 5,407 6,716
Depreciation and amortisation 517 513 534 495 550 341 417 478
Tax paid (156) (337) (418) (490) (631) (923) (1,220) (1,516)
Change in working capital (874) 292 387 (465) (254) (955) (620) (1,044)
Other operational CF items 118 264 (81) 160 836 (92) (90) (90)
Cash flow from operations 191 2,158 2,175 1,682 3,297 2,460 3,894 4,546
Capex (444) (394) (298) (513) (953) (1,500) (1,000) (1,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 178 0 (14) (2) (29) (29) (29) (29)
Other investing CF items (215) (44) (43) (229) (132) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (480) (438) (354) (745) (1,114) (1,529) (1,029) (1,029)
Change in debt 1,279 (662) (830) 470 (458) 117 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (602) (301) (652) (957) (1,012) (1,499) (2,194) (2,901)
Other financing CF items (91) (226) 1,274 77 (49) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 585 (1,189) (208) (410) (1,519) (1,382) (2,194) (2,901)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 296 531 1,612 527 664 (452) 670 615
Free cash flow (253) 1,764 1,877 1,169 2,344 960 2,894 3,546

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,912 2,457 4,031 4,678 5,256 4,854 5,648 6,386
Inventory 2,763 2,863 2,052 2,181 2,424 3,113 3,491 4,110
Accounts receivable 3,546 3,555 3,180 4,247 5,413 6,491 7,652 9,036
Other current assets 169 150 313 332 100 100 100 100
Total current assets 8,391 9,026 9,576 11,438 13,193 14,559 16,891 19,632
Fixed assets 2,059 2,273 2,171 2,461 3,054 4,213 4,796 5,318
Goodwill & intangibles 24 27 24 53 63 63 63 63
Other non-current assets 1,043 866 843 1,046 1,117 1,117 1,117 1,117
Total assets 11,517 12,192 12,615 14,998 17,427 19,951 22,867 26,129
Short-term debt 1,985 1,408 640 1,050 586 703 703 703
Accounts payable 3,986 4,530 3,846 4,759 6,174 6,986 7,905 8,865
Other current liabilities 268 385 235 273 429 429 429 429
Total current liabilities 6,239 6,323 4,721 6,082 7,189 8,118 9,037 9,996
Long-term debt 524 287 213 478 613 613 613 613
Other non-current liabilities 387 380 462 517 738 738 738 738
Total liabilities 7,151 6,989 5,396 7,078 8,539 9,468 10,387 11,347
Share capital 2,509 2,509 2,734 2,734 2,734 2,837 2,837 2,837
Reserves/R.E./others 1,857 2,693 4,484 5,186 6,153 7,647 9,643 11,946
Shareholders' equity 4,367 5,202 7,219 7,920 8,887 10,483 12,480 14,783
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 11,517 12,192 12,615 14,998 17,427 19,951 22,867 26,129
EV 38,332 36,972 34,558 34,585 33,677 34,196 33,403 32,665
Net debt/(cash) 597 (763) (3,178) (3,150) (4,058) (3,539) (4,333) (5,071)
BVPS (TWD) 17.402 20.733 26.399 28.859 32.265 36.958 43.996 52.116

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 6.1 3.7 (8.2) 13.2 27.7 24.1 18.0 18.0
EBITDA (YoY) (37.3) 66.6 26.3 5.2 54.7 25.4 31.4 24.8
Operating profit (YoY) (58.4) 142.0 36.4 9.6 67.5 37.8 32.2 25.6
Net profit (YoY) (49.6) 153.7 22.5 11.9 45.1 46.2 32.2 24.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (49.6) 153.0 17.3 7.4 45.5 40.7 31.2 24.2
Gross-profit margin 18.7 22.5 27.9 28.4 31.1 32.3 34.0 35.0
EBITDA margin 7.2 11.6 16.0 14.8 18.0 18.2 20.2 21.4
Operating-profit margin 3.4 8.0 11.8 11.5 15.0 16.7 18.7 19.9
Net profit margin 3.2 7.7 10.3 10.2 11.6 13.7 15.3 16.1
ROAE 9.6 22.8 21.5 19.7 25.8 32.7 36.5 38.2
ROAA 3.9 9.2 10.8 10.8 13.4 16.9 19.6 21.2
ROCE 7.3 16.3 20.4 19.1 28.8 35.4 40.0 43.0
ROIC 7.4 18.2 27.5 28.7 45.3 50.9 52.5 55.7
Net debt to equity 13.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 26.7 23.6 23.8 24.7 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6
Accounts receivable (days) 92.9 92.1 95.2 92.7 94.4 93.7 94.3 94.3
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
Net interest cover (x) 32.6 37.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 70.1 59.9 67.8 67.6 68.6 69.3 69.9 69.9
Free cash flow yield n.a. 4.7 5.0 3.1 6.2 2.5 7.7 9.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1980 and listed on Taiwan's main board in 2000, Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (Sunon) is one of the top-4 fan and motor providers in the world, along with Delta Electronics, Nidec and ebm-papst. Its major clients are Apple, Dell, Lenovo, Bosch, Siemens and Tesla. Its applications include IT & OE, telecoms & servers, industrial & medical equipment, home applications, distribution, autos and LED lighting.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and chairperson of Sunonwealth are the same individual; Sunonwealth's board is led by the Hung family. We see no issues with the company's board. We view the chairman leading the R&D team as a sign of the company's continuing focus on developing new products to achieve a long-term competitive advantage.
G Capital management 2 Sunonwealth's dividend payout ratio was 83-88% in 2015-18, but it decreased to 60-69% during 2022-25 due to its capacity expansion plans.
G Related party & transaction 2 Revenue generated from related-party transactions was less than 1% of total revenue during 2023-25.
E Materialssourcing& efficiency 1 Sunonwealth's sourcing of raw materials has been relatively stable (including IC, copper, plastic, aluminium and steel), and we also note that Sunonwealth abides by RoHS regulations and relevant international standards (ISO14001, IECQQC080000, ISO9001) for itsmaterial sourcing activities. With the ongoing ESG trend, its clients may move towards a more energy-efficient production cycle, which will likely benefit Sunonwealth's energy-efficient products.
E Productdesign& lifecycle management 2 Sunonwealth has improved its product designs to stronger but lighter form factors. Besides, we have observed more green projects utilising Sunonwealth's capabilities. Thus, we believe Sunonwealth has strong product design and lifecycle management capabilities to address the ongoing changing business environment.
S Productquality& safety 2 Sunonwealth has its own Quality Strategy Centre to evaluate quality issues. With international standards in place, we believe Sunonwealth has taken relevant measures to address product quality and safety issues.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 8 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company