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報告_Daiwa_奇鋐3017_20261102

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_奇鋐3017_20261102_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_奇鋐3017_20261102_002.png 33KB 真資料圖 AVC 營收結構堆疊圖(2020–2028E):Thermal & Chassis 71%→75%(2025)→81%(2026E)→83%(2027E/2028E);System Integration 23%→16%(2025)→11%→8%→7%;Fositek 6%→9%(2025)→8%→9%→10%
報告_Daiwa_奇鋐3017_20261102_003.png 32KB 真資料圖 AVC 1-year forward PER band(6x/12x/18x/24x/30x,Nov-19 至 Nov-26),股價(至約 TWD3,000+)靠近 24x–30x 區間

原始內容

Asia Vital Components (3017 TT)

Target price: TWD4,815.00 (from TWD4,465.00)

Shareprice(2Nov):TWD3,060.00 | Up/downside:+57.4%

3Q26 results preview: likely to beat expectations

  • We expect AVC's quarterly revenue to grow QoQ until end of 2027
  • More favourable price environment and margins profile in 2027
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12M TP to TWD4,815

What's new: We provide an update on AVC. The company plans to release its 3Q26 results on 10 November. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call (see our latest memo Record-high 3Q26 revenue beat expectations, 7 October). We expect AVC to maintain its leading position in the following years with more content value from ASICs projects since 4Q26.

What's the impact: 3Q26 results preview. AVC's 3Q26 revenue of TWD59,089m (+20.3% QoQ and +51.8% YoY), a record-high level, accounted for 102.3% and 103.0%, respectively, of our previous (TWD57,771m, +17.6% QoQ and +48.4% YoY) and the Bloomberg consensus forecasts for 3Q26 revenue. We forecast its 3Q26 gross margin to be 33.5% (vs. 32.6% in 2Q26 and 26.1% in 3Q25), slightly higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 33.3%. We forecast its operating profit of TWD16.8bn (+25.0% QoQ and +108.3% YoY), 4.5% higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of TWD16.1bn and we forecast its operating margin of 28.5% (vs. 27.4% in 2Q26 and 20.8% in 3Q25). Overall, we forecast its net profit of TWD11.6bn (+21.6% QoQ, +117.8% YoY), 4.3% higher than the consensus estimate of TWD11.2bn. For 4Q26, we forecast revenue to grow 15.1% QoQ (monthly revenue to rise MoM), and 1Q27 revenue to grow 2.9% QoQ considering ASIC and GPU projects.

Solid capacity expansion plan in 2027; worsening supply-demand environment to bring in a more favourable price trend to the sector. In light of the manifold content value from trays, we now expect content value by one of its ASICs clients to increase by another 20%. AVC expects the revenue drivers in 2027 to include double-sided cold plates, rising liquid cooling penetration from ASICs, and more content value wins (one-stop shopping model), for example, from CDU, CPU and NPO. As such, AVC plans to ramp up its cold plate capacity by 60% by 3Q27 with more automated product lines (positive to its further gross margin YoY expansion) to support its Vietnam plants, based on current order visibility and high utilisation rate. We keep our 2026-28E EPS unchanged.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD4,815 (from TWD4,465), still based on a target PER of 30x vs. a past-3-year PER range of 5-25x [average PER of 15x]) on its solid earnings visibility (earnings CAGR of 45.3% over 2026-2028E; 0.66x PEG) and applied to our 1-year forward EPS. Downside risks: slower-than-expected progress in high-gross-margin orders, slow AI server adoption, and competition.

How we differ: Our 2028E EPS is 8% above consensus, likely as we are relatively more aggressive in our revenue, gross and operating margins.

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Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change - - -
Net profit change - - -
Core EPS (FD) change - - -

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 1,240.00-3,685.00
Market cap (USDbn) 36.44
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 353.72
Shares outstanding (m) 388
Major shareholder Furukawa Electric (13.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 225,252 317,002 430,715
Operating profit (m) 61,651 92,248 128,353
Net profit (m) 42,338 64,134 89,411
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 105.880 160.389 223.604
EPS change (%) 119.5 51.5 39.4
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 1.0 (1.9) 8.0
PER (x) 28.9 19.1 13.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 2.1 3.0
DPS 43.1 65.3 91.1
PBR (x) 14.1 9.2 6.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.7 11.6 8.1
ROE (%) 65.1 59.2 55.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

AVC: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 225,252 225,252 0.0% 317,002 317,002 0.0% 430,715 430,715 0.0%
Gross profit 73,883 73,883 0.0% 109,366 109,366 0.0% 150,750 150,750 0.0%
Gross margin 32.8% 32.8% 0pp 34.5% 34.5% 0pp 35.0% 35.0% 0pp
Operating profit 61,651 61,651 0.0% 92,248 92,248 0.0% 128,353 128,353 0.0%
Operating margin 27.4% 27.4% 0pp 29.1% 29.1% 0pp 29.8% 29.8% 0pp
Net profit 42,338 42,338 0.0% 64,134 64,134 0.0% 89,411 89,411 0.0%
Net margin 18.8% 18.8% 0pp 20.2% 20.2% 0pp 20.8% 20.8% 0pp
Fully Diluted EPS (TWD) 105.88 105.88 0.0% 160.39 160.39 0.0% 223.60 223.60 0.0%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

AVC: 3Q26 results preview

(TWDm) Daiwa's 3Q26 forecast Our previous forecast Differ Bloomberg consensus Differ
Revenue 59,089 57,771 2.3% 57,719 2.4%
Gross profit 19,795 19,353 2.3% 19,236 2.9%
Operating profit 16,845 16,403 2.7% 16,115 4.5%
Profit before tax 17,301 16,860 2.6% 16,320 6.0%
Net profit 11,630 11,308 2.9% 11,155 4.3%
EPS 29.62 28.80 2.9% 28.27 4.8%
Margin
Gross margin 33.5% 33.5% 0pp 33.3% 0.2pp
Operating margin 28.5% 28.4% 0.1pp 27.9% 0.6pp
Pre-tax margin 29.3% 29.2% 0.1pp 28.3% 1pp
Net margin 19.7% 19.6% 0.1pp 19.3% 0.4pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

AVC: quarterly and annual P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 49,038 49,121 59,089 68,004 70,000 75,000 78,000 94,002 225,252 317,002 430,715
Gross profit 14,597 15,999 19,795 23,492 23,940 25,875 26,988 32,563 73,883 109,366 150,750
Operating profit 12,019 13,478 16,845 19,309 19,890 21,675 22,688 27,995 61,651 92,248 128,353
Pre-tax profit 11,979 13,935 17,301 19,766 20,404 22,189 23,202 28,509 62,981 94,304 130,409
Net profit 7,916 9,567 11,630 13,225 14,050 15,349 15,486 19,249 42,338 64,134 89,411
Basic EPS (TWD) 20.17 24.37 29.62 33.69 35.79 39.10 39.45 49.03 107.85 163.37 227.76
Margin
Gross margin 29.8% 32.6% 33.5% 34.5% 34.2% 34.5% 34.6% 34.6% 32.8% 34.5% 35.0%
Operating margin 24.5% 27.4% 28.5% 28.4% 28.4% 28.9% 29.1% 29.8% 27.4% 29.1% 29.8%
Pre-tax margin 24.4% 28.4% 29.3% 29.1% 29.1% 29.6% 29.7% 30.3% 28.0% 29.7% 30.3%
Net margin 16.1% 19.5% 19.7% 19.4% 20.1% 20.5% 19.9% 20.5% 18.8% 20.2% 20.8%
YoY
Revenue 110.2% 66.0% 51.8% 42.3% 42.7% 52.7% 32.0% 38.2% 61.3% 40.7% 35.9%
Gross profit 142.2% 121.5% 94.6% 86.3% 64.0% 61.7% 36.3% 38.6% 105.0% 48.0% 37.8%
Operating profit 175.6% 164.5% 108.3% 92.8% 65.5% 60.8% 34.7% 45.0% 123.7% 49.6% 39.1%
Pre-tax profit 159.3% 136.3% 110.6% 96.6% 70.3% 59.2% 34.1% 44.2% 118.8% 49.7% 38.3%
Net profit 146.3% 139.3% 117.8% 99.3% 77.5% 60.4% 33.2% 45.5% 120.7% 51.5% 39.4%
QoQ
Revenue 2.6% 0.2% 20.3% 15.1% 2.9% 7.1% 4.0% 20.5%
Gross profit 15.8% 9.6% 23.7% 18.7% 1.9% 8.1% 4.3% 20.7%
Operating profit 20.0% 12.1% 25.0% 14.6% 3.0% 9.0% 4.7% 23.4%
Pre-tax profit 19.2% 16.3% 24.2% 14.2% 3.2% 8.7% 4.6% 22.9%
Net profit 19.3% 20.9% 21.6% 13.7% 6.2% 9.2% 0.9% 24.3%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

AVC: product mix

AVC: 1-year forward PER

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal & chassis revenue YoY growth (%) 11.5 22.5 2.2 22.7 116.8 73.4 43.9 37.0
Systemintegrationproducts revenue YoY growth (%) 17.7 14.9 13.9 7.6 46.4 10.0 10.0 10.0
Fositek revenueYoYgrowth(%) 126.1 (0.2) 12.5 45.0 51.9 50.0 50.0 50.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal & Chassis 31,609 38,707 39,542 48,511 105,148 182,341 262,343 359,405
System Integration Products 10,702 12,296 14,005 15,070 22,063 24,269 26,696 29,366
Other Revenue 5,022 5,013 5,647 8,181 12,428 18,642 27,963 41,944
Total Revenue 47,333 56,017 59,194 71,761 139,639 225,252 317,002 430,715
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (38,947) (45,167) (46,806) (54,891) (103,605) (151,370) (207,637) (279,965)
SG&A (1,186) (1,637) (1,793) (1,892) (2,900) (4,505) (6,340) (8,614)
Other op.expenses (2,373) (2,907) (3,174) (4,156) (5,579) (7,727) (10,778) (13,783)
Operating profit 4,827 6,306 7,421 10,823 27,556 61,651 92,248 128,353
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (120) (184) (46) 114 91 756 756 756
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 61 367 650 1,415 1,140 574 1,300 1,300
Pre-tax profit 4,768 6,489 8,025 12,352 28,786 62,981 94,304 130,409
Tax (1,438) (1,871) (2,211) (3,159) (7,836) (17,144) (25,670) (35,498)
Min. int./pref. div./others (429) (456) (510) (1,020) (1,764) (3,500) (4,500) (5,500)
Net profit (reported) 2,901 4,162 5,305 8,172 19,186 42,338 64,134 89,411
Net profit (adjusted) 2,901 4,162 5,305 8,172 19,186 42,338 64,134 89,411
EPS (reported)(TWD) 8.210 11.781 14.106 21.210 49.173 107.850 163.374 227.765
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 8.210 11.781 14.106 21.210 49.173 107.850 163.374 227.765
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 8.176 11.728 13.706 20.622 48.238 105.880 160.389 223.604
DPS (TWD) 4.300 5.000 6.960 9.930 21.000 43.140 65.349 91.106
EBIT 4,827 6,306 7,421 10,823 27,556 61,651 92,248 128,353
EBITDA 6,404 8,022 9,375 13,285 30,802 64,919 96,959 134,688

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 4,768 6,489 8,025 12,352 28,786 62,981 94,304 130,409
Depreciation and amortisation 1,577 1,716 1,954 2,463 3,246 3,268 4,711 6,334
Tax paid (780) (1,582) (1,616) (2,430) (3,253) (17,144) (25,670) (35,498)
Change in working capital (3,275) (1,339) 3,683 (7,379) (390) (15,295) (7,136) (16,975)
Other operational CF items 551 3,556 (1,722) 4,628 10,932 (756) (756) (756)
Cash flow from operations 2,841 8,840 10,324 9,632 39,321 33,055 65,453 83,515
Capex (1,567) (3,666) (3,657) (4,540) (7,267) (15,000) (17,000) (19,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 43 (12) (23) (66) 3 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (636) (515) (226) (3,063) (6,072) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,160) (4,194) (3,907) (7,669) (13,336) (15,000) (17,000) (19,000)
Change in debt 1,793 4,037 (1,474) 3,309 7,054 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (989) (1,519) (1,915) (2,683) (3,877) (7,059) (16,935) (25,654)
Other financing CF items 355 (436) 4,261 (426) (557) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 1,159 2,082 872 200 2,620 (7,059) (16,935) (25,654)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 1,841 6,728 7,289 2,163 28,605 10,996 31,518 38,862
Free cash flow 1,275 5,174 6,667 5,092 32,053 18,055 48,453 64,515

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 12,915 20,049 26,957 29,924 58,530 69,526 101,043 139,905
Inventory 16,374 18,951 19,369 35,473 51,484 84,174 108,007 149,512
Accounts receivable 6,762 5,081 7,196 8,306 13,212 21,976 29,235 40,871
Other current assets 2,580 1,405 1,370 2,389 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950
Total current assets 38,631 45,486 54,892 76,092 126,176 178,625 241,234 333,238
Fixed assets 7,711 9,694 11,350 13,805 17,849 29,581 41,870 54,535
Goodwill & intangibles 151 134 177 169 195 195 195 195
Other non-current assets 4,372 5,160 5,248 9,839 15,916 15,916 15,916 15,916
Total assets 50,865 60,474 71,667 99,906 160,137 224,318 299,216 403,884
Short-term debt 5,028 7,970 7,583 13,130 16,311 16,311 16,311 16,311
Accounts payable 20,116 18,911 24,900 36,809 61,128 87,988 112,645 149,514
Other current liabilities 2,832 5,999 4,350 8,350 20,057 13,025 13,025 13,025
Total current liabilities 27,976 32,880 36,833 58,288 97,495 117,324 141,981 178,850
Long-term debt 3,730 4,908 3,678 4,049 7,623 7,623 7,623 7,623
Other non-current liabilities 5,074 5,263 5,309 4,096 4,453 4,453 4,453 4,453
Total liabilities 36,780 43,051 45,820 66,433 109,572 129,401 154,058 190,926
Share capital 3,533 3,533 3,833 3,883 3,983 3,926 3,926 3,926
Reserves/R.E./others 8,880 11,963 18,197 24,988 40,618 81,527 127,268 189,568
Shareholders' equity 12,413 15,496 22,030 28,871 44,601 85,453 131,194 193,494
Minority interests 1,672 1,927 3,817 4,602 5,964 9,464 13,964 19,464
Total equity & liabilities 50,865 60,474 71,667 99,906 160,137 224,318 299,216 403,884
EV 1,185,318 1,182,559 1,175,925 1,179,660 1,159,172 1,151,676 1,124,658 1,091,297
Net debt/(cash) (4,157) (7,171) (15,696) (12,745) (34,596) (45,591) (77,109) (115,970)
BVPS (TWD) 35.134 43.861 57.472 74.929 114.306 217.681 334.201 492.902

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 19.3 18.3 5.7 21.2 94.6 61.3 40.7 35.9
EBITDA (YoY) 41.8 25.3 16.9 41.7 131.8 110.8 49.4 38.9
Operating profit (YoY) 47.2 30.6 17.7 45.8 154.6 123.7 49.6 39.1
Net profit (YoY) 51.4 43.5 27.4 54.1 134.8 120.7 51.5 39.4
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 51.3 43.4 16.9 50.5 133.9 119.5 51.5 39.4
Gross-profit margin 17.7 19.4 20.9 23.5 25.8 32.8 34.5 35.0
EBITDA margin 13.5 14.3 15.8 18.5 22.1 28.8 30.6 31.3
Operating-profit margin 10.2 11.3 12.5 15.1 19.7 27.4 29.1 29.8
Net profit margin 6.1 7.4 9.0 11.4 13.7 18.8 20.2 20.8
ROAE 25.2 29.8 28.3 32.1 52.2 65.1 59.2 55.1
ROAA 6.2 7.5 8.0 9.5 14.8 22.0 24.5 25.4
ROCE 23.5 23.7 22.0 24.7 44.0 63.8 64.1 63.2
ROIC 39.4 44.5 52.7 52.2 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 30.2 28.8 27.5 25.6 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2
Accounts receivable (days) 49.6 38.6 37.9 39.4 28.1 28.5 29.5 29.7
Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9
Net interest cover (x) 40.3 34.2 162.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 52.4 42.4 49.3 46.8 42.7 40.0 40.0 40.0
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.7 1.5 4.1 5.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

AVC is a global leading comprehensive thermal solutions provider in segments related to desktops, laptops, communication, servers, energy and autos. Its main product line includes thermal products (thermal modules and fans), chassis, system assembly and peripheral products and hinges. The company has been listed on Taiwan's main board since September 2002.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and Chairperson of AVC are the same individual, but we see no issue with its board quality. Besides, we see the Chairperson has 24 years of experience in this industry, which is a positive sign from an executive perspective.
Capital management 2 AVC's dividend payout ratio was 40-52% over 2020-25, likely due to its capacity expansion plans.
E Related party & transaction Supplychain 2 Revenue generated from related-party transactions was 1-3% of total revenue during 2021-25, and we found no suspicious activity.
management 1 AVC has introduced Hazardous Substance Process Management (HSPM) and received QC080000 certification. In addition, AVC set up a Green Product team to promote HSPM and formulate environmental regulation to make sure its material sourcing and efficiency are well- performed. To prevent the interruption of information systems and leakage of sensitive information
E Datasecurity 1 causing losses to the company and customers, AVC has introduced an information security management system and passed the ISO 27001 information security management system certification in 2019.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 6 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company